People's War

[lordroel]

Sept 20, 2021 17:37:57 GMT James G said:

Operation Allied Sword wasn’t supposed to be about collapsing the East German regime. Neither was it, as far as Cuomo saw the whole thing, about seeing a full-scale war break out. The aim of the president was to see a quick conflict – up to a week of air strikes was envisioned – before the DDR gave in and accepted the demands imposed upon it. Flattening the military was fine to him but going further than that wasn’t what the wanted to see. There was solid reasoning behind that, one which he the senior people in his administration were aligned upon. If Honecker and her government were brought down and East Germany torn apart at American hands, it would be the responsibility of the United States to deal with the aftermath.

Why do i have a feeling that when a "Corner a dog in a dead-end street and it will turn and bite" scenario is going to play out and East Germany will do something stupid.

[James G]

Sept 20, 2021 18:04:33 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 20, 2021 17:37:57 GMT James G said:

Operation Allied Sword wasn’t supposed to be about collapsing the East German regime. Neither was it, as far as Cuomo saw the whole thing, about seeing a full-scale war break out. The aim of the president was to see a quick conflict – up to a week of air strikes was envisioned – before the DDR gave in and accepted the demands imposed upon it. Flattening the military was fine to him but going further than that wasn’t what the wanted to see. There was solid reasoning behind that, one which he the senior people in his administration were aligned upon. If Honecker and her government were brought down and East Germany torn apart at American hands, it would be the responsibility of the United States to deal with the aftermath.

Why do i have a feeling that when a "Corner a dog in a dead-end street and it will turn and bite" scenario is going to play out and East Germany will do something stupid.

Because that is a dead cert. They have said they will target West Germany, which is causing massive domestic political unrest there, and mean it. More than West Germany is in range of their missiles too: France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark can be hit by the SS-23 Spider.
Doing that will not be regarded as stupid by the regime either. 

[lordroel]

Sept 20, 2021 18:18:10 GMT James G said:

Sept 20, 2021 18:04:33 GMT lordroel said:

Why do i have a feeling that when a "Corner a dog in a dead-end street and it will turn and bite" scenario is going to play out and East Germany will do something stupid.

Because that is a dead cert. They have said they will target West Germany, which is causing massive domestic political unrest there, and mean it. More than West Germany is in range of their missiles too: France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark can be hit by the SS-23 Spider.
Doing that will not be regarded as stupid by the regime either. 

Invading West Berlin is another option, doubt the Berlin Brigade, Berlin Infantry Brigade and the French Forces in Berlin can hold against the East Germans.

[James G]

Sept 20, 2021 18:26:41 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 20, 2021 18:18:10 GMT James G said:

Because that is a dead cert. They have said they will target West Germany, which is causing massive domestic political unrest there, and mean it. More than West Germany is in range of their missiles too: France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark can be hit by the SS-23 Spider.
Doing that will not be regarded as stupid by the regime either. 

Invading West Berlin is another option, doubt the Berlin Brigade, Berlin Infantry Brigade and the French Forces in Berlin can hold against the East Germans.

West Berlin is in the next update.

[lordroel]

Sept 20, 2021 19:22:51 GMT James G said:

Sept 20, 2021 18:26:41 GMT lordroel said:

Invading West Berlin is another option, doubt the Berlin Brigade, Berlin Infantry Brigade and the French Forces in Berlin can hold against the East Germans.

West Berlin is in the next update.

And a battle it wil be I can imagine.

[stevep]

   Well this is going to be messy but there isn't really much choice.I can understand Cumo's restrictions but taking out the Stasi posts and bridges would definitely show that the west was serious.  Hitting only direct nuclear and military targets far enough away from civilian targets sends a clearer political message but as James says I don't think the regime will listen and it will mean they have more to strike back with as well as the ability to do so and to control the population.

[James G]

Sept 20, 2021 19:24:12 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 20, 2021 19:22:51 GMT James G said:

West Berlin is in the next update.

And a battle it wil be I can imagine.

A readiness to fight for it, if necessary, but we not yet at the shooting stage.

Sept 21, 2021 9:37:29 GMT stevep said:

   Well this is going to be messy but there isn't really much choice.I can understand Cumo's restrictions but taking out the Stasi posts and bridges would definitely show that the west was serious.  Hitting only direct nuclear and military targets far enough away from civilian targets sends a clearer political message but as James says I don't think the regime will listen and it will mean they have more to strike back with as well as the ability to do so and to control the population.

I looked at what NATO hit early on in the 1999 air campaign against Serbia for a targeting idea. Yet then considered that the hesitancy here in this story, in DC yet also in London/Paris/etc, plus West German woes, would affect that. The mission is to get the DDR to do as they are told.
Those restrictions the Coalition have imposed on themselves will hurt though. Causing chaos, aiding another uprising, would be best for everyone but a different route will be taken becasue that isn't desired.

[James G]

Twenty-one – Plausible deniability


Long before the Coalition undertook the planned Operation Allied Sword, the trio of leading nations among that forged alliance launched Operation Certain Resolve. Britain, France and the United States sent troops to reinforce their respective garrisons within West Berlin.

They conducted a secret airlift without notice given to either German government – in Bonn and East Berlin – with only the Russians told ahead of time with the aim of gaining their assistance. Certain sections of the Western media would afterwards call it ‘Berlin Airlift #2’ though that was a misnomer. Troops and armaments were sent in one lift quickly into the airheads in West Berlin with the aircraft making fast turn-arounds to go back west afterwards. There was no follow up and the city wasn’t being isolated by the East Germans with regard to civilian supplies. As to the soldiers sent, they could have gone by road using one of the internationally-recognised fixed links. In London, Paris and Washington though, such an operation as what was undertaken was all about showing their might and capability to the DDR. The intention was for the regime of Margot Honecker to understand that her nation couldn’t stand up to the Coalition in anything it wanted to do. As to the troops sent to that city in the middle of East Germany, they were deployed to join the small, wound-down garrisons there that the three countries maintained since the end of the Second World War. Massive withdrawals following the fall of the Soviet Union, where first the Soviets then the Russians had seen them pull almost everyone out of the DDR, had been mirrored by the West though due to the Russians having a small number of soldiers in East Berlin, there had been shrunken garrisons in the other half of the city. Operation Certain Resolve was launched in case the East Germans decided that they might wish to overrun a near undefended West Berlin. Should they try, they’d really have to make a fight of it.

The Americans went first. Half a dozen US Air Force C-141 Starlifters, huge transport aircraft loaded with paratroopers and munitions, flew out of Rhein-Main Airbase and along an air corridor up to West Berlin. The aircraft were tight together, appearing on East German radar screens as just two aircraft. The LSK had no fighters up and there was no escort for the Starlifters. The latter had concerned many senior American officers but the orders from Washington were for the airlift to be done in such a manner. The flight time was short and soon enough, the aircraft reached Tempelhof Airport. The paratroopers hadn’t been at Rhein-Main for long before they met their aircraft for that onwards journey. They’d flown up from Italy several hours before taking a second flight and were the US Army’s garrison down there in Italy. To West Berlin the battalion of well-trained soldiers went and they doubled the size of the garrison in that city when moving quickly away from the soon-to-be departing Starflifters.

The French followed the American lead. There was no big aircraft like the C-141 Starlifter in the service of the Armée de l'Air for use as a strategic airlifter. However, the French did fly large Boeings in the form of C-135FRs. They were primarily airborne tankers but could carry troops. Four of them made a direct flight from France over West Germany and then along the same air corridor that the Americans had taken: the southern one of those. Foreign Legion soldiers were crammed into them like sardines in an aluminium tin with less than a battalion making the deployment. Tegel Airport was their destination with a safe flight made for all involved. East German fighters, MiG-21s out of a dispersed airfield, were aloft during the flight back west that the tankers/transports made yet those were unarmed aircraft flying along a recognised air route. No action was taken against the departing French aircraft while questions were asked as to what to do up the command chain.

The British went last. Already the East Germans had taken notice and there was danger involved for them. The soldiers involved weren’t really aware of that though senior officers back in the UK and also several government ministers had expressed concerns. Nonetheless, the Royal Air Force flew 3 PARA into West Berlin with landings made the RAF Gatow airbase. Five TriStar dual-role airlifter-tankers flew in on a second air corridor, to the north of the one which the Americans and the French had used, but the central of three, and thus made a far shorter journey across East German airspace. No interference came on the way in. 3 PARA were fast out of their aircraft and joining up with the battalion from the Queen’s Lancashire Regiment who were already in West Berlin. On the way out, MiGs showed up though. The LSK put up a flight of MiG-23s which rocketed across the sky to make an interception. Dazed, the pilot of the lead TriStar climbing out of Gatow was when a MiG crossed seemingly feet in front of his aircraft’s nose. Only plentiful flight experience allowed him to keep his cool and not cause a mid-air collision with the other RAF jets coming up behind him from out of West Berlin. The RAF aircraft were buzzed by those MiGs all the way back to the border but no shots were fired again them during their exit from East German airspace.


Co-ordination for the entire movement was done via EUCOM over in West Germany and also the Berlin Air Safety Centre too. On the Berlin end, that facility was a holdover from the end of the fight against the Nazis and there were Russians who jointly staffed the air coordination set-up alongside the Americans, British & French. That was why Moscow had been informed ahead of time as to Operation Certain Resolve taking place. They could have seen to it that the airlift was disrupted, maybe even halted mid-stride should there have been quick joint actions taken with the East Germans. There was none of that though. The Russians on staff received an unexplained but firm instruction from Moscow which instructed them to walk away from their work stations and take a well-earned break. Their replacements took over before the Russians would afterwards return and find out all that had happened while they were drinking coffee, smoking cigarettes or even having a doze. There was what the Americans would call ‘plausible deniability’ in that Russian action sanctioned all the way from Chernomyrdin in the Kremlin. Should the DDR push the matter, the Russians would rightfully say that they had seen and done nothing with regards to the Coalition sending troops in.

In West Berlin, 3/325 INF (the battalion had been preforming the role of main combat element for the Southern European Airborne Task Force before it redeployment), the French Foreign Legion troops and 3 PARA moved toward the garrisons which their home nations maintained there. They didn’t at once start moving into defensive positions where they could be positioned to repel an East German assault into the city. If that had been on the cards, a different type of operation, possibly no airlift at all, would have been conducted. The mission for them was to be ready to fight though. It wasn’t believed that the DDR would suddenly send in troops because that would start a general war. Should they start making ready to do such a thing, it was thought that there would be visible signs ahead of time to highlight a readiness to make the move in the Berlin area as well as elsewhere. Regular army soldiers and the highly-militarised border guard would be moving and there would be other sighs of an attack ahead of time. Faced with that, only then would a city-wide defensive stand be made ready.

However, into the city the Coalition did sent troops. They were deployed to fight to defend West Berlin if necessary. No air campaign by the Coalition had yet to begin but the readiness level for the start of that increased every day. East Germany continued to refuse to accept the demands made upon it with no sign of any compromise. The news of what had happened with Operation Certain Resolve soon broke. Across West Germany, there was more anger expressed against the Coalition and its alleged war-mongering. Putting troops into West Berlin was seen as making war certain when there were so many across the country whose fervent wish that a last minute agreement would come about to stop the fearful slide into combat.

[lordroel]

Sept 21, 2021 17:53:46 GMT James G said:

Twenty-one – Plausible deniability


Long before the Coalition undertook the planned Operation Allied Sword, the trio of leading nations among that forged alliance launched Operation Certain Resolve. Britain, France and the United States sent troops to reinforce their respective garrisons within West Berlin.

They conducted a secret airlift without notice given to either German government – in Bonn and East Berlin – with only the Russians told ahead of time with the aim of gaining their assistance. Certain sections of the Western media would afterwards call it ‘Berlin Airlift #2’ though that was a misnomer. Troops and armaments were sent in one lift quickly into the airheads in West Berlin with the aircraft making fast turn-arounds to go back west afterwards. There was no follow up and the city wasn’t being isolated by the East Germans with regard to civilian supplies. As to the soldiers sent, they could have gone by road using one of the internationally-recognised fixed links. In London, Paris and Washington though, such an operation as what was undertaken was all about showing their might and capability to the DDR. The intention was for the regime of Margot Honecker to understand that her nation couldn’t stand up to the Coalition in anything it wanted to do. As to the troops sent to that city in the middle of East Germany, they were deployed to join the small, wound-down garrisons there that the three countries maintained since the end of the Second World War. Massive withdrawals following the fall of the Soviet Union, where first the Soviets then the Russians had seen them pull almost everyone out of the DDR, had been mirrored by the West though due to the Russians having a small number of soldiers in East Berlin, there had been shrunken garrisons in the other half of the city. Operation Certain Resolve was launched in case the East Germans decided that they might wish to overrun a near undefended West Berlin. Should they try, they’d really have to make a fight of it.

The Americans went first. Half a dozen US Air Force C-141 Starlifters, huge transport aircraft loaded with paratroopers and munitions, flew out of Rhein-Main Airbase and along an air corridor up to West Berlin. The aircraft were tight together, appearing on East German radar screens as just two aircraft. The LSK had no fighters up and there was no escort for the Starlifters. The latter had concerned many senior American officers but the orders from Washington were for the airlift to be done in such a manner. The flight time was short and soon enough, the aircraft reached Tempelhof Airport. The paratroopers hadn’t been at Rhein-Main for long before they met their aircraft for that onwards journey. They’d flown up from Italy several hours before taking a second flight and were the US Army’s garrison down there in Italy. To West Berlin the battalion of well-trained soldiers went and they doubled the size of the garrison in that city when moving quickly away from the soon-to-be departing Starflifters.

The French followed the American lead. There was no big aircraft like the C-141 Starlifter in the service of the Armée de l'Air for use as a strategic airlifter. However, the French did fly large Boeings in the form of C-135FRs. They were primarily airborne tankers but could carry troops. Four of them made a direct flight from France over West Germany and then along the same air corridor that the Americans had taken: the southern one of those. Foreign Legion soldiers were crammed into them like sardines in an aluminium tin with less than a battalion making the deployment. Tegel Airport was their destination with a safe flight made for all involved. East German fighters, MiG-21s out of a dispersed airfield, were aloft during the flight back west that the tankers/transports made yet those were unarmed aircraft flying along a recognised air route. No action was taken against the departing French aircraft while questions were asked as to what to do up the command chain.

The British went last. Already the East Germans had taken notice and there was danger involved for them. The soldiers involved weren’t really aware of that though senior officers back in the UK and also several government ministers had expressed concerns. Nonetheless, the Royal Air Force flew 3 PARA into West Berlin with landings made the RAF Gatow airbase. Five TriStar dual-role airlifter-tankers flew in on a second air corridor, to the north of the one which the Americans and the French had used, but the central of three, and thus made a far shorter journey across East German airspace. No interference came on the way in. 3 PARA were fast out of their aircraft and joining up with the battalion from the Queen’s Lancashire Regiment who were already in West Berlin. On the way out, MiGs showed up though. The LSK put up a flight of MiG-23s which rocketed across the sky to make an interception. Dazed, the pilot of the lead TriStar climbing out of Gatow was when a MiG crossed seemingly feet in front of his aircraft’s nose. Only plentiful flight experience allowed him to keep his cool and not cause a mid-air collision with the other RAF jets coming up behind him from out of West Berlin. The RAF aircraft were buzzed by those MiGs all the way back to the border but no shots were fired again them during their exit from East German airspace.


Co-ordination for the entire movement was done via EUCOM over in West Germany and also the Berlin Air Safety Centre too. On the Berlin end, that facility was a holdover from the end of the fight against the Nazis and there were Russians who jointly staffed the air coordination set-up alongside the Americans, British & French. That was why Moscow had been informed ahead of time as to Operation Certain Resolve taking place. They could have seen to it that the airlift was disrupted, maybe even halted mid-stride should there have been quick joint actions taken with the East Germans. There was none of that though. The Russians on staff received an unexplained but firm instruction from Moscow which instructed them to walk away from their work stations and take a well-earned break. Their replacements took over before the Russians would afterwards return and find out all that had happened while they were drinking coffee, smoking cigarettes or even having a doze. There was what the Americans would call ‘plausible deniability’ in that Russian action sanctioned all the way from Chernomyrdin in the Kremlin. Should the DDR push the matter, the Russians would rightfully say that they had seen and done nothing with regards to the Coalition sending troops in.

In West Berlin, 3/325 INF (the battalion had been preforming the role of main combat element for the Southern European Airborne Task Force before it redeployment), the French Foreign Legion troops and 3 PARA moved toward the garrisons which their home nations maintained there. They didn’t at once start moving into defensive positions where they could be positioned to repel an East German assault into the city. If that had been on the cards, a different type of operation, possibly no airlift at all, would have been conducted. The mission for them was to be ready to fight though. It wasn’t believed that the DDR would suddenly send in troops because that would start a general war. Should they start making ready to do such a thing, it was thought that there would be visible signs ahead of time to highlight a readiness to make the move in the Berlin area as well as elsewhere. Regular army soldiers and the highly-militarised border guard would be moving and there would be other sighs of an attack ahead of time. Faced with that, only then would a city-wide defensive stand be made ready.

However, into the city the Coalition did sent troops. They were deployed to fight to defend West Berlin if necessary. No air campaign by the Coalition had yet to begin but the readiness level for the start of that increased every day. East Germany continued to refuse to accept the demands made upon it with no sign of any compromise. The news of what had happened with Operation Certain Resolve soon broke. Across West Germany, there was more anger expressed against the Coalition and its alleged war-mongering. Putting troops into West Berlin was seen as making war certain when there were so many across the country whose fervent wish that a last minute agreement would come about to stop the fearful slide into combat.

Had one of those transport been shot down, we would have war already, not we have to wait a bit longer.

[James G]

Sept 21, 2021 18:30:43 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 21, 2021 17:53:46 GMT James G said:

Twenty-one – Plausible deniability


Long before the Coalition undertook the planned Operation Allied Sword, the trio of leading nations among that forged alliance launched Operation Certain Resolve. Britain, France and the United States sent troops to reinforce their respective garrisons within West Berlin.

They conducted a secret airlift without notice given to either German government – in Bonn and East Berlin – with only the Russians told ahead of time with the aim of gaining their assistance. Certain sections of the Western media would afterwards call it ‘Berlin Airlift #2’ though that was a misnomer. Troops and armaments were sent in one lift quickly into the airheads in West Berlin with the aircraft making fast turn-arounds to go back west afterwards. There was no follow up and the city wasn’t being isolated by the East Germans with regard to civilian supplies. As to the soldiers sent, they could have gone by road using one of the internationally-recognised fixed links. In London, Paris and Washington though, such an operation as what was undertaken was all about showing their might and capability to the DDR. The intention was for the regime of Margot Honecker to understand that her nation couldn’t stand up to the Coalition in anything it wanted to do. As to the troops sent to that city in the middle of East Germany, they were deployed to join the small, wound-down garrisons there that the three countries maintained since the end of the Second World War. Massive withdrawals following the fall of the Soviet Union, where first the Soviets then the Russians had seen them pull almost everyone out of the DDR, had been mirrored by the West though due to the Russians having a small number of soldiers in East Berlin, there had been shrunken garrisons in the other half of the city. Operation Certain Resolve was launched in case the East Germans decided that they might wish to overrun a near undefended West Berlin. Should they try, they’d really have to make a fight of it.

The Americans went first. Half a dozen US Air Force C-141 Starlifters, huge transport aircraft loaded with paratroopers and munitions, flew out of Rhein-Main Airbase and along an air corridor up to West Berlin. The aircraft were tight together, appearing on East German radar screens as just two aircraft. The LSK had no fighters up and there was no escort for the Starlifters. The latter had concerned many senior American officers but the orders from Washington were for the airlift to be done in such a manner. The flight time was short and soon enough, the aircraft reached Tempelhof Airport. The paratroopers hadn’t been at Rhein-Main for long before they met their aircraft for that onwards journey. They’d flown up from Italy several hours before taking a second flight and were the US Army’s garrison down there in Italy. To West Berlin the battalion of well-trained soldiers went and they doubled the size of the garrison in that city when moving quickly away from the soon-to-be departing Starflifters.

The French followed the American lead. There was no big aircraft like the C-141 Starlifter in the service of the Armée de l'Air for use as a strategic airlifter. However, the French did fly large Boeings in the form of C-135FRs. They were primarily airborne tankers but could carry troops. Four of them made a direct flight from France over West Germany and then along the same air corridor that the Americans had taken: the southern one of those. Foreign Legion soldiers were crammed into them like sardines in an aluminium tin with less than a battalion making the deployment. Tegel Airport was their destination with a safe flight made for all involved. East German fighters, MiG-21s out of a dispersed airfield, were aloft during the flight back west that the tankers/transports made yet those were unarmed aircraft flying along a recognised air route. No action was taken against the departing French aircraft while questions were asked as to what to do up the command chain.

The British went last. Already the East Germans had taken notice and there was danger involved for them. The soldiers involved weren’t really aware of that though senior officers back in the UK and also several government ministers had expressed concerns. Nonetheless, the Royal Air Force flew 3 PARA into West Berlin with landings made the RAF Gatow airbase. Five TriStar dual-role airlifter-tankers flew in on a second air corridor, to the north of the one which the Americans and the French had used, but the central of three, and thus made a far shorter journey across East German airspace. No interference came on the way in. 3 PARA were fast out of their aircraft and joining up with the battalion from the Queen’s Lancashire Regiment who were already in West Berlin. On the way out, MiGs showed up though. The LSK put up a flight of MiG-23s which rocketed across the sky to make an interception. Dazed, the pilot of the lead TriStar climbing out of Gatow was when a MiG crossed seemingly feet in front of his aircraft’s nose. Only plentiful flight experience allowed him to keep his cool and not cause a mid-air collision with the other RAF jets coming up behind him from out of West Berlin. The RAF aircraft were buzzed by those MiGs all the way back to the border but no shots were fired again them during their exit from East German airspace.


Co-ordination for the entire movement was done via EUCOM over in West Germany and also the Berlin Air Safety Centre too. On the Berlin end, that facility was a holdover from the end of the fight against the Nazis and there were Russians who jointly staffed the air coordination set-up alongside the Americans, British & French. That was why Moscow had been informed ahead of time as to Operation Certain Resolve taking place. They could have seen to it that the airlift was disrupted, maybe even halted mid-stride should there have been quick joint actions taken with the East Germans. There was none of that though. The Russians on staff received an unexplained but firm instruction from Moscow which instructed them to walk away from their work stations and take a well-earned break. Their replacements took over before the Russians would afterwards return and find out all that had happened while they were drinking coffee, smoking cigarettes or even having a doze. There was what the Americans would call ‘plausible deniability’ in that Russian action sanctioned all the way from Chernomyrdin in the Kremlin. Should the DDR push the matter, the Russians would rightfully say that they had seen and done nothing with regards to the Coalition sending troops in.

In West Berlin, 3/325 INF (the battalion had been preforming the role of main combat element for the Southern European Airborne Task Force before it redeployment), the French Foreign Legion troops and 3 PARA moved toward the garrisons which their home nations maintained there. They didn’t at once start moving into defensive positions where they could be positioned to repel an East German assault into the city. If that had been on the cards, a different type of operation, possibly no airlift at all, would have been conducted. The mission for them was to be ready to fight though. It wasn’t believed that the DDR would suddenly send in troops because that would start a general war. Should they start making ready to do such a thing, it was thought that there would be visible signs ahead of time to highlight a readiness to make the move in the Berlin area as well as elsewhere. Regular army soldiers and the highly-militarised border guard would be moving and there would be other sighs of an attack ahead of time. Faced with that, only then would a city-wide defensive stand be made ready.

However, into the city the Coalition did sent troops. They were deployed to fight to defend West Berlin if necessary. No air campaign by the Coalition had yet to begin but the readiness level for the start of that increased every day. East Germany continued to refuse to accept the demands made upon it with no sign of any compromise. The news of what had happened with Operation Certain Resolve soon broke. Across West Germany, there was more anger expressed against the Coalition and its alleged war-mongering. Putting troops into West Berlin was seen as making war certain when there were so many across the country whose fervent wish that a last minute agreement would come about to stop the fearful slide into combat.

Had one of those transport been shot down, we would have war already, not we have to wait a bit longer.

Yes indeed. Not much longer.
Air action elsewhere in the update below.

[James G]

Twenty-two – Begin Doctrine


All eyes were in West Berlin and East Germany which surrounded it. However, at the same time as members of the Coalition doubled their troop strength in West Berlin, Israel struck in the Middle East. They targeted two Arab countries for air strikes in a complicated, simultaneous operation over great distances. The joint DDR-Iraqi-Libyan missile programme, which was due to be armed with a nuclear weapon should the development which they were all working upon succeed, had been something Israel had been aware of for two months before they made their move in late June 1995. It wasn’t caution nor fear of retaliation which held them back but rather resistance from Washington. President Cuomo had forced Tel Aviv to do nothing while claiming that his administration would sort the issue out. East Germany came into the sights of the United States yet there were only vague promises about dealing with Gaddafi and Saddam too. That was unacceptable for Prime Minister Peres and his government. At the urging of his cabinet, especially the hawks within it, a unilateral manner of dealing with the Iraqis and Libyans had been long in the works. As time went on, and on, with Cuomo continuity telling Peres to hold his fire, the danger which Israel saw became more and more pressing. Further reconnaissance shower greater progress than first feared. While those two regimes didn’t yet have a functioning warhead, they were damn close to finishing the weapon to make use of that in time. Back in 1981, then PM Begin had struck at Iraq when Saddam was building the Osirak nuclear reactor with French assistance. There had been global condemnation, even from the Americans, but Israel had long considered the course of action taken back then to launch a pre-emptive strike to destroy Iraq’s nuclear ambitions the right thing to do. Not long afterwards, Begin had made a public speech defending the attack and declaring that all future Israeli leaders would be bound by the policy of a first strike when faced with such a danger again. That had been called the Begin Doctrine by commentators in response. When bombing Iraq and Libya fourteen years later, Peres followed that policy. He did so for the national survival of his country so as to make sure that there would be no Second Holocaust.

Strike Package #1 went eastwards. Israeli Air Force F-16D two-seat fighter-bombers flew out of Ramat David Airbase. There were eight aircraft flown by the best aircrews with The Valley Squadron (109). Staying low on the approach, the F-16s cut across the very northwestern corner of Jordan and then entered Syrian airspace: they went around rather than over the Golan Heights. Syrian air defence radars should have picked them up straight away and all sorts of actions should have been taken including the readying for launch of SAMs as well as fighters getting airborne. Nothing happened with regard to Syrian air defences though. Sayeret Matkal was in action to see no response made. Israel’s premier special forces unit was active within Syria where they were disguised as Syrian military personnel. Surprise inspections, the shutting down of radar networks and the cutting of communications to guard against an imaginary coup attempt against the Assad regime knocked out part of the network. The F-16s flew through the gap created and the commandos then set about making their escape, which left confusion in their wake. They killed no one and conducted a mission which could have gone wrong due to all sorts of factors yet did a wonderful job overall. The Syrians were left chasing their tails with President Assad himself shoved into a bunker when the ‘news’ reached Damascus that a military takeover was being attempted to depose him. It took several days before the full truth was revealed and by then the departed Israeli jets had long done their worst elsewhere. That confusion in their wake, the F-16s went across Syria and then into Iraq. More commandos were at the other end, out in the desert almost two hundred miles west of Baghdad: they were from the Shaldag unit. With laser designators in-hand, they highlighted for incoming bombs two separate facilities where the Iraqis were putting together missile components.

The assembly building, the fabrication centres, offices and worker’s accommodation were all targeted. Flying high, the F-16s dropped their bombs. Each aircraft had travelled light due to the long distances and the need for evasive manoeuvres across parts of Syria where radars hadn’t gone dark but they carried enough ordnance to do the job. Fantastic explosions rocked the Iraqi desert. Saddam’s end of the missile programme which threatened Israel was put out of business. A large number of casualties were caused as well. The pre-dawn strike caught workers in their beds: the attack was designed to do that no matter what Israel might say afterwards to those who questioned the timing of the attack. The F-16s then turned for home. They took a shorter direct routing across Jordan on the return. Behind them, the Iraqi air force was trying to get jets up but those F-16s were going supersonic across Jordanian skies by then. Radars there detected them though operators also saw on theirs screens a couple of dozen more Israeli fighters getting airborne over the West Bank. Attention was on the latter and the threat which they posed while the ones returning from Iraqi skies rocketed home. Still, as Saddam said when he would later be angry at the Jordanians for not doing, they could have fought to defend their airspace. They didn’t though, not with their small and less effective air force when faced with such an Israeli action as they were intimidated by.

Six F-15Ds – more twin-seat aircraft – flew on the westwards strike towards Libya. The Spearhead Squadron (106) sent them from Tel Nof Airbase out over the Mediterranean and in the direction of Crete. The F-15s with Strike Package #2 appeared to be on an exercise, doing something that Israeli Air Force jets had done beforehand. They met a tanker out over international waters and a mid-air refuelling was done seemingly as part of that. Then, followed by that Boeing as well as another similar aircraft outfitted for a different task, the aircraft took a southwestern routing instead of going back home. In American service, the F-15D – like the A, B & C models – was designed in such a manner as to ‘leave not a pound for air-to-ground’: it was supposed to be a fighter only. There were new-build F-15Es that were designed for the outset for the strike-fighter role which the US Air Force had in service and the Israelis had on order, but the F-15D was perfectly capable of carrying surface-attack munitions with a little bit of work done. It was a long-range aircraft and Israelis were always innovators in such a thing. The Spearhead Squadron aircraft went towards Libya with missiles carried. They had air-to-air ones as well as air-to-surface missiles too. No direct penetration of Libyan airspace was made by them with launches of Popeye missiles made over the Gulf of Sirte… not very far from where that East German aircraft with Erich Mielke and Uday Hussein had disappeared more than a year previously. Post launch, and unchallenged by Libyan interceptors, four of the F-15s reversed course to met their tanker ahead of the journey home. They had been the aircraft which had fired those Popeyes. The other pair of F-15s remained on-station though, staying close to one of those Boeings which had also come along for the trip.

Immense electronic jamming commenced the moment that those Popeye short-range cruise missiles were flying. Libyan air defences were specifically targeted along known operational channels used by their radars and also their communications. The possibility of them being able to shoot down the Popeyes was remote but the chance wasn’t taken. Israel found itself unable to physically bomb the targeted site in Libya and have eyes on it as their bombs fell due to the certain risk of losing those sent in there. Peres and his cabinet wanted to make sure that the missiles they used got through so had that close-in jamming done. An industrial plant south of Misrata, near to the Al Kararim locality, was the target. It was supposed to be somewhere that the Libyans were refurbishing household appliances for the good of the people. In reality, that surprisingly well-guarded place for such an unthreatening purpose was the main Libyan end of the joint missile programme. Six missiles struck their targets: one had a bad launch and had fallen into the sea while another went off-course and hit a stretch of the Libyan coastal highway. Those ones on-target did their job. They smashed apart the facility and caused a lot of casualties. Like the Iraqis, the Libyans kept those involved in their missile programme on-site to aid in secrecy. The Israelis sought to kill the specialist technicians and workers in their beds just as much as blowing up their workplace. Right before missile impact, a lone Mirage F1 in Libyan Air Force markings raced out towards the Gulf of Sirte. The Libyans had two of them on strip alert though only one got up. It stood no chance of catching the departing jamming aircraft nor posed any danger to the F-15s. The Israeli jets could have turned away. They didn’t though. The Mirage was struck with Python-4 missiles with three impacts made. That overkill did the job of knocking it firmly out of the sky. Only then did those Spearhead Squadron jets fly away to go off and meet the tanker that the other F-15s had.

No follow-up announcement was made in Israel about what they had done. Peres had refused to be talked into that by certain members of his cabinet. There was no point boasting about it. Gaddafi and Saddam knew full well what Israel had done. The news was expected to break, and it did, but there was no comment from any official sources in Tel Aviv. Everyone knew what had happened though. The Americans weren’t pleased. That was expected and the storm was something that Peres steeled himself to weather. No apology for taking action was made to Washington and instead there was an approach taken of what had been done had been done with the time having come to move past it. From out of Baghdad there came later outrage, then from Damascus there were all sorts of wild allegations in the following days. Silence, only silence, was emitted from Tripoli though. Gaddafi plotted revenge but didn’t make a fuss with the consideration that admitting than an attack had taken place would show weakness.

Post-strike intelligence summaries delivered to Peres and Cuomo from separate sources were rather similar in their outlook of the practical and strategic outcomes of the twin strikes. Iraq and Libya were both out of the long-range missile business for anything from one year to three. The destruction of facilities and deaths of so many key people really did harm. There was still the knowledge there to make another go of it all and it was thought that each dictator would want to restart the whole process, though it was unknown if they would actually try after such a blow delivered. All their secrecy in development had failed. More than that, their mutual foreign backer – East Germany – would be a little too ‘distracted’ to help. That was thought certain to put a spanner in the works just as those Israeli bombs and cruise missiles had.

[lordroel]

Sept 22, 2021 18:20:50 GMT James G said:

Twenty-two – Begin Doctrine

Gaddafi plotted revenge but didn’t make a fuss with the consideration that admitting than an attack had taken place would show weakness.

Why do i have a feeling it will not be Israel that will be hit but the United States, ore am i looking in the wrong crystal boll.

[stevep]

Sept 22, 2021 18:32:48 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 22, 2021 18:20:50 GMT James G said:

Twenty-two – Begin Doctrine

Gaddafi plotted revenge but didn’t make a fuss with the consideration that admitting than an attack had taken place would show weakness.

Why do i have a feeling it will not be Israel that will be hit but the United States, ore am i looking in the wrong crystal boll.

lordroel,James G,

  Israel is definitely a tougher target and no matter what Washington says a lot of people will assume that it green lighted the operation.  As such the US or one of its close allies are quite likely targets.  Especially probably Britain and/or France as their also closely involved in operations to close down the GDR end of the joint project.  Gadaffi has history of supporting the IRA although, assuming no butterflies here this is getting close to the Dublin Agreement that ended most of the violence there.

  One thing I noticed is that both strikes hit missile assembly factories.  Does that mean that the only work on actual warhead production is going on in E Germany?  That would seem strange since both Gaddaffi and Saddam had tried building their own bombs in the past and it would leave them vulnerable to E Germany influence if the latter had a monopoly on the actual nuclear materials.  On the other hand if their got actual bomb plants themselves it would seem odd for Israel to only target the missile assembly areas.  Since both powers have missiles already in service, although possibly not with the range to hit Israel but could either try and obtain such or use other methods for delivering a nuke to Israel.

  Anyway that will heat things up more.  While its a possibility that the regime in E Berlin decides the allies are serious and backs down this seems unlikely, especially given how much their committed to their other actions already.  They could decide that the Israeli decide to act against their allies 'shows' that the US and friends won't actually do similar to them but if so their going to be in for a very unpleasant surprise.

  What if in the coming crisis, possibly even before shooting starts or after the initial allied attacks the regime starts a new blockade of W Berlin?  Even if this doesn't extend to attacking transport a/c but just blocks ground routes how long could the city last?  This might be a step they try before it becomes a pretty much all out war?

  Anyway another good chapter James and the switch of focus shows that this isn't just a problem in Europe and there are ramifications around the world.

  Steve

[James G]

Sept 22, 2021 18:32:48 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 22, 2021 18:20:50 GMT James G said:

Twenty-two – Begin Doctrine

Gaddafi plotted revenge but didn’t make a fuss with the consideration that admitting than an attack had taken place would show weakness.

Why do i have a feeling it will not be Israel that will be hit but the United States, ore am i looking in the wrong crystal boll.

Plots will be made, against 'all enemies', but carrying them out is the hard bit.
Not sure about how that might play out story-wise down the lines.

Sept 23, 2021 11:43:16 GMT stevep said:

lordroel,James G,

  Israel is definitely a tougher target and no matter what Washington says a lot of people will assume that it green lighted the operation.  As such the US or one of its close allies are quite likely targets.  Especially probably Britain and/or France as their also closely involved in operations to close down the GDR end of the joint project.  Gadaffi has history of supporting the IRA although, assuming no butterflies here this is getting close to the Dublin Agreement that ended most of the violence there.

  One thing I noticed is that both strikes hit missile assembly factories.  Does that mean that the only work on actual warhead production is going on in E Germany?  That would seem strange since both Gaddaffi and Saddam had tried building their own bombs in the past and it would leave them vulnerable to E Germany influence if the latter had a monopoly on the actual nuclear materials.  On the other hand if their got actual bomb plants themselves it would seem odd for Israel to only target the missile assembly areas.  Since both powers have missiles already in service, although possibly not with the range to hit Israel but could either try and obtain such or use other methods for delivering a nuke to Israel.

  Anyway that will heat things up more.  While its a possibility that the regime in E Berlin decides the allies are serious and backs down this seems unlikely, especially given how much their committed to their other actions already.  They could decide that the Israeli decide to act against their allies 'shows' that the US and friends won't actually do similar to them but if so their going to be in for a very unpleasant surprise.

  What if in the coming crisis, possibly even before shooting starts or after the initial allied attacks the regime starts a new blockade of W Berlin?  Even if this doesn't extend to attacking transport a/c but just blocks ground routes how long could the city last?  This might be a step they try before it becomes a pretty much all out war?

  Anyway another good chapter James and the switch of focus shows that this isn't just a problem in Europe and there are ramifications around the world.

  Steve

A US green light will be assumed regardless. That sounds reasonable.
Ah... interesting points on what I had there with Iraq and Libya. I've gone awry with just those strikes against assembly/design facilities. I need to think about the whole thing more so lets call that 'stage one'. Most nuclear work is being done in East Germany but I fully agree that Saddam nor Gadaffi would cede full control to their ally on that.
The IRA has friends with the Stasi. There is no OTL mid-90 ceasefire - those bombs in London late in '94 here happened - and the IRA, part of it anyway, will be played by the East Germans when help is needed. 
They aren't backing down in East Berlin because they just refuse to believe it. That Israeli attack might help that thinking along, just as you say.
A Berlin blockade is in the works for when things get serious. West Germany will go apesh*t.

[James G]

Twenty-three – The build-up continues


The Coalition was making use of six airbases across West Germany for the mass reinforcement of air power ready to take on the East Germans. Not five years beforehand, there would have been twice as many locations to base aircraft at. However, cutbacks following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc had seen the closure of so many of what was once available across that country. Five of the six filling up with aircraft at the end of June 1995 were on the western side of the Rhine with the sixth right next to Frankfurt. RAF Bruggen & RAF Laarbruch were British facilities practically alongside the Dutch border in the northern reaches of the Rhineland. Further south, close to where the Saar was, the Americans were making great use of Ramstein AB, Sembach AB & Spangdahlem AB; they also had that big presence at Rhein-Main AB which shared its runways with Frankfurt International Airport much closer to the DDR. In terms of combat aircraft, the RAF had added to their pre-deployed force of Tornados and Harriers with more of each as well as some older Jaguars. There remained more Tornados back in the UK with both the strike and air defence versions of that aircraft there. A-10s, F-15s (the fighter version) and F-16s were plentiful at the US Air Force bases. A major deployment was long underway in the Gulf for American air power but they still had the available forces to fill their West German airbases. Rhein-Main was mainly an air logistics hub yet there were F-16s sent there as a forward presence. At each of the half dozen locations, the Americans and British already had many hardened aircraft shelters – which only a direct hit with a penetrating bomb could take out – though there wasn’t enough room for all of the deployed aircraft especially at Rhein-Main. Revetments were hastily build. Concrete and steel plating was used to create blast pens around where aircraft sat in the open under camouflage: that camouflage extended to the revetments too.

The inability of the limited number of sites with West Germany, though also the desire to see a geographic spread of forces to curtail enemy attack options, saw the Coalition deploy aircraft into neighbouring countries. The Belgians, the Danes, the Dutch and the French all kept their own combat aircraft on home soil though with forward deployment closer to where they would see action Bases were opened up for allies too. Up in Denmark, a squadron of Norwegian F-16s arrived down at Skrydstrup AB at the bottom of Jutland to join the Danes who had identical aircraft there and also at Karup AB. There were two Cold War era airbases also on Jutland which the Danes had long held in a stand-by status for use by allies in wartime: Tirstrup AB and Vendel AB. They were opened up to arriving American aircraft as well as two squadrons of Canadian CF-1118 Hornets. A squadron of F-15Es arrived at Soesterberg AB in the Netherlands and another of F-16s went to Volkel AB too. The US Air Force had left the Netherlands only a few years beforehand but returned at Dutch invitation. So too did the Italians who moved up aircraft there with their Tornados (both the IDS and ECR versions) taking a long flight through France to reach their new Dutch bases. The Royal Netherlands Air Force had plenty of multi-role F-16s which were spread throughout their country. Belgium was home to two more of those wartime-ready airbases that the Danes also had. The Americans sent aircraft to Jehonville AB and Weelde AB both. Belgian aircraft were spread across their own national bases though with forward movement to sites in the eastern half of the country leaving them closer to where they expected to see action. The French remained on home soil. Combat aircraft with the Armée de l'Air were across the northeastern region. Plans afoot were for the French to fly mainly above the Czech Republic, less so direct over East Germany, and from where they were positioned, those jets were considered to be close enough. There were a heck of a lot of different Mirage aircraft sitting ready to fly those planned combat missions.

Back in the UK, the RAF had many of their Tornados but the country was also home to American air power. The mixed wing of F-15s at RAF Lakenheath stayed where they were – not forward deploying onto the Continent – and there was too an opening up of further sites. RAF Sculthorpe was also in East Anglia like Lakenheath and that was another one of those Cold War reserve airbases. F-15s and F-16s arrived there while with the same combat wing as them (the 366th Wing) was a squadron of B-1Bs which were deployed to RAF Fairford in the West of England; two squadrons of B-52Hs also went to that facility. RAF Alconbury and RAF Upper Heyford were American airbases closed in recent years yet still regarded as capable of seeing emergency deployments. Into them returned F-111Fs with the EF-111A electronic attack version of that aircraft additionally arriving. At RAF Boscombe Down, down in Southern England where the Americans and the RAF had long used that facility for experimental and secret flights, there was the arrival of a squadron of F-117As. Those stealth strike aircraft arrived at night and were hidden from view; a second squadron flew into Orland AB in the central region of Norway. Those American air units which went to Britain and Norway were all from regular units and so too were many of those deployed elsewhere onto the Continent. However, there was too the arrival of Air Force Reserve units. Others were at Gulf bases but more went to Belgium and Denmark. Into the same two countries, plus also arriving at Leeuwarden AB in the Netherlands, were Air National Guard fighter units. The ANG had a Gulf deployment underway and added to that with one to Europe. Some very good units with brand-new jets arrived as well. The whole of the ANG hadn’t been mobilised back in the United States and those sent to get ready to fight the East Germans had been preparing for unit-only mobilisations ahead of time elsewhere with a change of destination completed with ease.

All of that mass of combat air power was joined by supporting aircraft. There were AWACS aircraft, electronic warfare jets and a lot of tankers. The Americans brought over a lot of the latter though the British, the Canadians, the Dutch, the French and Italians had airborne tankers of their own. Of course, there were many more Americans ones though yet their less-numerous contribution was still valuable. At every airbase made use of, there were those threat counter-measures taken. There were ground troops brought in to protect against what was seen as unlikely yet still possible East German commando threat. The HASs and revetments were in-place to protect aircraft on the ground against the missile threat rather than any East German air attack: again unlikely yet not something that could be completely disregarded. The DDR had already made use of its ballistic missiles to strike throughout Eastern Europe. West Germany and beyond, as far as Denmark, the Low Countries & France, were all within range of them. The Americans and the Dutch both fielded Patriot missile systems. Those had seen action in the Gulf War against Iraq – the Dutch had sent some of theirs to Israel – where what was designed as an anti-air weapon was used to engage ballistic missiles. Claims made in 1991 about the effectiveness of the Patriot had been trashed since then. Nonetheless, much work had been done with the Patriot since them to make it a viable defence for Coalition airbases which the expectation was that the East Germans would target for missile attacks. The West Germans had their own Patriots and those systems would have been welcomed into the Coalition missile defence network. That wasn’t to be though. Independently, they were being deployed elsewhere… yet that movement was still welcomed for it did free up Coalition batteries from that possible role.


The naval build-up continued with less visibility than hundreds upon hundreds of aircraft arriving at land bases. In the North Sea mainly, though with a smaller forward presence in the Danish Straits closer to East Germany, the Coalition assembled warships. There was air power deployed aboard them as well as missiles. New additions to the task forces being built arrived everyday the build-up went on for with a large and clear overreach made in terms of the deployed forces. That was done to make the East Germans take notice though. The international media surely did so when the US Navy sent the massive aircraft carrier USS Enterprise through the English Channel. It could have taken the routing around the British Isles, past the top of Scotland after crossing the North Atlantic, but instead it transited the busy waters of the Straits of Dover. The British and French authorities assisted in making that passage smooth and didn’t interfere with images recorded for broadcast of the Enterprise approaching mainland Europe. USS Dwight D. Eisenhower had been in the North Sea some time before the second carrier arrived. From the two of them flew a huge flotilla of combat aircraft including A-6s, F-14s & FA-18s. They were mobile airbases with their own AWACS aircraft and tankers too. Sea Harriers flown from the Royal Navy’s HMS Illustrious were also ready to see action. They had far less range yet, with tanking, could reach East Germany should the call come. No French carrier joined those three others with the French keeping one of theirs at sea down in the Med. on operations enforcing the maritime embargo against the participants in the Bosnian War; the Americans had the USS George Washington there too. With the carriers, there were cruisers, destroyers, frigates, support ships and submarines. It wasn’t just escort provided but the ability to fire off cruise missiles too from the American vessels. Coalition countries provided naval power there with the French and the Italians joining the Belgians, the Canadians and the Dutch alongside the RN and the USN.

The Danes had their naval forces in home waters to the east of Jutland. A handful of Norwegian vessels were there as well, including a submarine, though most assistance to the Danes came from the Americans and the British. Less-imposing warships were present with destroyers and frigates sent instead of carriers and cruisers. The East Germans had their own navy with a naval air force in support. Counter-action was anticipated in the face of an air campaign against the DDR with it thought likely that a portion of that would occur near to Denmark. The Danes were ready to face that and their allies provided them with significant reinforcements to allow them to defend their territory and interests. Through the Oresund, in sight of land, had gone warships to position themselves ready to see action. Unseen had been the submarines which had gone too.

There had been closures of garrisons for ground forces as well as airbases in West Germany after the Soviets had imploded with the Russians then taking their army home from the other side of the Iron Curtain. However, the cutbacks had been less severe for armies when it came to completely closing their bases. Further scaling back had been in the works yet there remained plentiful locations still open in the middle of 1995 even with reduced forces in-place. No big deployment to complete a build-up of troops took place by the Coalition. The Americans, British and French all had troops in West Germany and kept most of them in-place. There was instead a small movement of some covering forces towards the borders with East Germany and the Czech Republic just in case the DDR decided to go a bit crazy. As part of that, something that the West Germans had no legal ability to stop from happening, Coalition helicopters were deployed much further forward than combat aircraft were. Hanau Army Airfield was a major US Army helicopter site on the opposite side of the famous Fulda Gap and the Americans sent Apache & Cobra gunships, Kiowa scouts & a range of special operations helicopters to there, and then onwards to improvised sites. They were spread across Bavaria and Hessen for patrol tasks but also ready to take action against the East Germans as well as including later aircrew recovery. The British Army and the RAF sent their own helicopters across the Luneburg Heath and elsewhere in the northern parts of West Germany. Their tasks were the same as the Americans though with less available striking power. Much support was given to assisting SAS operational teams engaged in border patrols watching for East German commando activity. Plans were made for aircrew recovery though the British were far more hesitant about having to do that – yet still ready to – than the Americans were. The latter would use specialist fixed wing CSAR aircraft as well as their helicopters yet the RAF had nothing like those AC-130s & MC-130s that the US Air Force had on-hand for that task.

All of that air power, plus the additional naval build-up, still hadn’t changed the minds of those in East Berlin as to what they were risking as the final days of June came to a close. Fighting was still being undertaken down in the Czech Republic against Polish forces there and there were additional air strikes into Polish territory. Ballistic missile firings had ceased yet there remained a continuous denial that East Germany had a nuclear weapons programme despite all of the evidence presented by the Coalition to the international community about that. The demands presented and ultimatum threatened at Rotterdam had had little effect. A few dispersal operations had taken place, there had been some exercises conducted and attempts at concealment were underway but that was it. The East Germans hadn’t prepared themselves for war. The belief remained that the Coalition wouldn’t strike, not with the West Germans still utterly opposed to military action. Images that came out of that country of anti-war protests underway and statements from angry politicians were taken as ‘proof’ that no attack was possible due to the threat of military retaliation against West Germany if it was used as a base of operations. The Coalition was making sure that the DDR had a good idea of its assembling strength – broad strokes, not specifics – but the message wasn’t getting through. All that the Coalition was doing, and preparing to do too, driving the West Germans to rage with that, was still regarded as a bluff and just wasn’t having the impact desired.