AHC: Operation Ashika - A Japanese Sea Lion

[simon darkshade]

With a PoD of 1918, your challenge is to have a scenario where Imperial Japan launches an amphibious invasion of Great Britain by 1941.

Bonus points for creativity. You may use slide rules.

[lordroel]

Sept 6, 2021 6:08:16 GMT simon darkshade said:

With a PoD of 1918, your challenge is to have a scenario where Imperial Japan launches an amphibious invasion of Great Britain by 1941.

Bonus points for creativity. You may use slide rules.

Japan takes over all of Russia instead of getting involved in China, that gives them the ports to be closer to the United Kingdom.

[gillan1220]

Have aliens crash in Japan in 1918. The IJN reverse engineers the alien tech to build a blue water navy.

[lordroel]

Sept 6, 2021 8:01:49 GMT gillan1220 said:

Have aliens crash in Japan in 1918. The IJN reverse engineers the alien tech to build a blue water navy.

We get in ASB mode with this.

[griml0ck122]

The IJN back the whites in the Russian revolution, and chase the Reds all the way to Moscow.
Hitler comes to power and signs a pact with Russia, Japan and Italy.
Wwii starts as the Russians and Germans divvy up Poland. Eventually France falls, and Japan sends its Army across Russia, and It’s Navy on a round the world adventure.
Spain joins the War, Gibraltar falls.
With all of Europe in Axis hands, Operation Sea Lion is given the green light, with troops from across europe and japan being supported by an immense combined fleet.
Two quite… multicultural forces clash in atlantic, along side one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

[oscssw]

Sept 6, 2021 9:12:28 GMT griml0ck122 said:

The IJN back the whites in the Russian revolution, and chase the Reds all the way to Moscow.
Hitler comes to power and signs a pact with Russia, Japan and Italy.
Wwii starts as the Russians and Germans divvy up Poland. Eventually France falls, and Japan sends its Army across Russia, and It’s Navy on a round the world adventure.
Spain joins the War, Gibraltar falls.
With all of Europe in Axis hands, Operation Sea Lion is given the green light, with troops from across europe and japan being supported by an immense combined fleet.
Two quite… multicultural forces clash in atlantic, along side one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

The IJN vs. the RN Home Fleet in 1941 in the English channel.  Now that is worth thinking about.  The teacher confronted by his most successful student.

Logistics would be a real problem.   Logistical support, especially oil, to the fighting fleet was a very big problem for the IJN.  Now we are talking about how to get that superb Carrier Dominated fleet from Japan to the English channel.  I'd say they would have to fight their way against the world wide deployed RN.    The RN did not lack for naval dockyards/bases to support their deployed fleet.  Through most of the transit the IJN had none. 

They would still have to take Singapore and the Netherlander East Indies.  They would have to fight their way through the Indian Ocean and around the tip of Cape of Good Hope.

No way they get to use the Suez canal.  Then they have to transit up the west Coast of Africa.  All the time the RN would be using their subs to atrite the support ships and the battle fleet as  they pushed north.  The carrier force would have lost irreplaceable pilots in this long voyage.  The ships would have been in need of major dockyard availabilities as the plants would have been run long and hard without the usual base support.

I am very interested in how you get around those problems. 

[stevep]

Sept 6, 2021 8:15:28 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 6, 2021 8:01:49 GMT gillan1220 said:

Have aliens crash in Japan in 1918. The IJN reverse engineers the alien tech to build a blue water navy.

We get in ASB mode with this.

  Well that's about the only way I can see it happening to be honest, at least with such a POD date.  Actually to be fair to Japan they already had a blue water navy, as Russia found out in 1904/05 and China a decade before.  However the massive boost from alien tech might give them the basis for such an operation, possibly forward basing out of places like New York after occupying N America 1st.  Which would remove the issue of fighting their way across Eurasia to get forward bases.

  Unless you have possibly France collapsing in 1918 causing the capture of much of the British and US forces and some time later - possibly in a later conflict Germany - imperial/fascist/whatever captures Britain.  Then rump British forces, along with their bases and allies help a Japanese bid to liberate Britain while Germany is involved in a new death struggle with Russia say?  Still massively unlikely but the best I can come up with at the moment.

[stevep]

Sept 6, 2021 15:10:03 GMT oscssw said:

Sept 6, 2021 9:12:28 GMT griml0ck122 said:

The IJN back the whites in the Russian revolution, and chase the Reds all the way to Moscow.
Hitler comes to power and signs a pact with Russia, Japan and Italy.
Wwii starts as the Russians and Germans divvy up Poland. Eventually France falls, and Japan sends its Army across Russia, and It’s Navy on a round the world adventure.
Spain joins the War, Gibraltar falls.
With all of Europe in Axis hands, Operation Sea Lion is given the green light, with troops from across europe and japan being supported by an immense combined fleet.
Two quite… multicultural forces clash in atlantic, along side one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

The IJN vs. the RN Home Fleet in 1940 in the English channel.  Now that is worth thinking about.  The teacher confronted by his most successful student.

Logistics would be a real problem.   Logistical support, especially oil, to the fighting fleet was a very big problem for the IJN.  Now we are talking about how to get that superb Carrier Dominated fleet from Japan to the English channel.  I'd say they would have to fight their way against the world wide deployed RN.    The RN did not lack for naval dockyards/bases to support their deployed fleet.  Through most of the transit the IJN had none. 

They would still have to take Singapore and the Netherlander East Indies.  They would have to fight their way through the Indian Ocean and around the tip of Cape Hope.

No way they get to use the Suez canal.  Then they have to transit up the west Coast of Africa.  All the time the RN would be using their subs to atrite the support ships and the battle fleet as  they pushed north.  The carrier force would have lost irreplaceable pilots in this long voyage.  The ships would have been in need of major dockyard availabilities as the plants would have been run long and hard without the usual base support.

I am very interested in how you get around those problems. 

  I think the thing is what griml0ck122, is describing is basically a Japanese component to an invasion that would mainly come from the European continent and ground forces are likely therefore to be largely from [probably] Germany while Japan, if much of the British empire has been conquered by this time, is supplying a fleet to help with the operation.

[simon darkshade]

There is of course the other direction to the Indian Ocean axis some have mentioned - Pacific, South America, Caribbean, Azores, Gibraltar. It is extremely difficult for a reason.

As Steve observes, the Japanese most certainly had a blue water navy.

[belushitd]

Ok....

Japan gets slapped in the face at the Washington Naval Conference. The delegates from the western powers collectively decide that they are not going to give the Japanese parity with any western power, not even Italy or France. The Japanese delegates object courteously, and finally accept the pact, even while deciding that the country will not accept this humiliation for long and has no intention of abiding by it. The other effect of this national humiliation is that the Japanese have targeted Great Britian as the architect of their humiliation.

The result of this is that several of the treaty signatories decide that since Japan is limited (and foolishly believing that the Japanese will stick with the treaty) they will not build up to the naval levels they are allowed to. The lack of government spending on shipbuilding leads to a worsening of the depression, as compared to our timeline. The four power treaty is less favorable to Japan, but since the Japanese have no intention of following through with it, it doesn't matter to them.

Japan, meanwhile, has not only ignored the limits, but engaged in serious overconstruction, both in their naval shipbuilding and in investment in the civilian economy, with most of the investment coming in a combination of education and heavy industry. The Japanese Army tries to invade Manchuria, and is slapped down by the emperor, leading to the Navy being the more socially acceptable / honorable service for Japanese men. Instead, large amounts are invested in the industry of Manchuria, with virtually all the output of the steel mills going to Japan. The Japanese also clamp down on tourism and foreigners in their mandate islands. The islands are fortified and airbases and naval bases are developed.

During this time period, a brilliant but hitherto unknown officer poses the question - "If we're fortifying our islands, we should assume the other nations are fortifying theirs. How will we go about taking them?" A series of tests in the early 30's demonstrates that the Japanese have no real idea how to force a landing on a fortified beach. A large amount of effort is put into learning how to do so, and also into better equipment. War plans are constructed for battle with all major powers, including invasions aimed at taking the capital for each power.

It is further noted that the fleet train is lacking for all of these tasks, and effort is put into developing both equipment and techniques for refueling and reprovisioning underway.

Diplomatic efforts are put forth into steering the south american countries into being truly neutral or leaning towards Japan.

Come 1939, with the start of WWII, the Japanese decide the time has come to execute their revenge on Great Britain. The men are trained and mobilized, and starting in April of 1940, the invasion fleet sets out. Japanese merchant ships meet with the fleet as it sails across the pacific, refueling and reprovisioning as they sail. Isolated islands in the Pacific leased by Japan from Chile give them a secure place to reprovision. Once in the Atlantic, other isolated anchorages along the Brazilian coast permit additional refueling.

Nearing the end of May, 1940, the Japanese fleet enters the English Channel. Aware from news reports that the evacuation at Dunkirk is under way, the Japanese land at dawn on May 25th between Brighton and Portsmouth. The Japanese ambassador delivers the declaration of war at noon of the same day.


Belushi TD

Belushi TD

[lordroel]

Sept 7, 2021 3:03:41 GMT simon darkshade said:

There is of course the other direction to the Indian Ocean axis some have mentioned - Pacific, South America, Caribbean, Azores, Gibraltar. It is extremely difficult for a reason.

As Steve observes, the Japanese most certainly had a blue water navy.

But not for invading the United Kingdom.

[miletus12]

Sept 6, 2021 6:08:16 GMT simon darkshade said:

With a PoD of 1918, your challenge is to have a scenario where Imperial Japan launches an amphibious invasion of Great Britain by 1941.

Bonus points for creativity. You may use slide rules.

Thou asketh for a Sabine Hossenfelder physics lesson?



Seriously, there is a path to Operation Walrus, that goes like this.

1. The Great War happens much as it did historically, but the fall-out from the peace is more of mess than our real history (RH) Versailles. Bernard Law wins in the UK and Charles Evans Hughes becomes the American president in 1916 after Wilson drops dead in the middle of his campaign to "keep Americans out of the European War".

There is no "14 points" and there is no "League of Nations" to act as a safety valve on the imperialism of the era. For the British ruling class, now that the "German menace" has been removed, it returns to business as usual with the British continuing to munch on China and with two other powers alarmed about British aggression in the Chinese matter.

2. In Japan, the rise of postwar British influence in China has a curious effect as the Kensekai/Miseito coalition has to handle the twin threats of Russian communism and British mercantilist imperialism to Japanese sovereignty.  In this concern, the Japanese are not alone.

3. The Americans are not too happy either. Domestically, though it was Woodrow Wilson who colluded with the Wall Street creditors to invade northern Mexico to reverse Huerta's nationalization of the Mexican oil fields and bog the Americans down in an unpopular war that is still ongoing under the Evans administration, the "Conniver of Princeton" and unreconstructed "Confederate Lost Cause" revisionist sent 2 million Americans to France, one out of four who were killed in the Alsace Lorraine offensives of 1918-early 1919. 

Leave it to the defunct Wilson administration and British shenanigans under Andrew Bonar Law's crown government to result in a permanent demilitarized zone along the Rhine River with the Central European Socialist Union on one side, formed out of the remnants of defeated Wilhelmine Germany and Carlist Austria-Hungary and a rather militarized misnamed French army dominated Fourth Republic, or is that the "Third Empire"? (Pun intended.)     
    
4. Did I mention Black Jack Pershing and a half million Americans patrol the DMZ?

5. What else is the British crown government doing, besides munching on former German colonies and supporting reactionary elements in Russia and taking over the American banking system and running the Empire Area Tarriff Taxation Heritage Enhanced Monetary Allocation Limits Indexed Variance Exclusion scheme? (Acronym is "Eat Them Alive". Whitehall will have their jokes.). It manufactures an artificial depression globally by manipulating South American market commodities in an attempt to freeze out foreign competitors.      
  
6. And then there is the new arms race. Britain must have a navy equal to the next two competitor navies in size and since she is the only nation rich enough and financially stable enough to afford an arms race what with Japan in the midst of the yen crisis and the Americans bogged down with an army of occupation on two continents and British financial interests taking over the American banking system...

7. The Hughes administration and the Kato Takaaki crown coalition (Washington and Tokyo) hold the Washington Naval Conference of 1922. The UK is not invited. CESU and Menshovik Russia are. Italy and the Third Empire send observers.

8. Without the British Empire, a sort of international peace pact is signed with tensions in Europe eased off, new financial arrangements and political accommodations are set up to promote a "Pan European Zone" (Read Continental System 2.0) to counter "Eat Them Alive" and a secret naval pact is arranged between or rather among the Pacific Powers to "contain" the spread of Britishism in East Asia.

9. In other words, Japan and America agree to split China into trade spheres along the Yangtze River. Both nations form a trade combine of "liberal democracies" to oppose British imperialism in the Pacific. They also agree to split South America into trade zones with the Americans getting the eastern side of the continent and the Japanese getting the western coastal states as trade influence regions.         
 
10. As for the naval arms race? Both nations agree to cooperate in oceanic use and denial against the overlarge and over aggressive and oppressive Royal Navy. The Japanese will handle the Western Pacific north of the South China Sea while the Americans handle the Atlantic. Both nations will cooperate to neutralize the Indian Ocean in a nutcracker.

11. Since battleship competition is impossible, the weapons of choice are the airplane and the submarine. 

12. Rue Britainnia. Never underestimate how hubris can lead to disaster.

13. Come 1 April 1945, a combined Japanese-American fleet approaches the Orkney Islands. The desperate RAF employs British Imperialism as a suicide plane introduction to cruise missile warfare but the 4th Fleet under Royal Ingersoll and the Japanese Atlantic Expeditionary Fleet under Ozawa, Jisaburo weathers the crisis and the SNLF and the Marines land. The Royal Navy sends out their last remaining pride, the super battleship HMS Lion, along with the cruiser Dorsetshire and eight Tribal class destroyers. Too bad.  Somewhere about 50 km southwest of the Faeroes islands group, the HIJMS I-168 makes contact with this last thrown of the Royal Navy and then planes from TF 48, a mix of Japanese Raidens and American Avengers swoops in for the kill. Lion, Dorsetshire and four of the eight Tribals sink in the last gasp of the Royal Navy.

14. Fitting revenge for the South China Sea Ambush where the IJN lost Mutsu and Haruna resisting British landings in Indochina, and for the sneak attack on Norfolk, Virginia when the British, in the midst of peace talks backstabbed LANTFLT and brought war to the Wilkie administration? 

14. After the French Police Action later, who knows? Maybe the British Maritime Self Defense Force will be a thing?

I might turn this into a timeline thread with an open invitation for board members to create a pan-forum story telling event to make it happen?           
 

[simon darkshade]

That's creative and entertaining to boot. And you didn't even need a slide rule. Well done.

[miletus12]

Dec 8, 2021 14:27:36 GMT simon darkshade said:

That's creative and entertaining to boot. And you didn't even need a slide rule. Well done.

Thank you.