Scientific stalemate in Europe - no Renaisance?

[575]

Just watched a documentary on invention of writing and printing - so what how would mainly Europe develop without the Abbasids capturing the Chinese Army Train in the wake of the Battle of Talas or being defeated?

It seems to come down to trade - if the Europeans in day and age didn't get paper as OTL from the Muslim World the medium for the printing press would be infinitely more expensive continue barring the spread of literacy and thinking in Europe. Thus in the end no Renaisance of Thought and Science and less development until the secret of making paper would spread eventually; by the time of Mongol conquest of China at least 500 years later.

Hence the printing press wouldn't make an impact untill round 1940! If stuff progress in OTL pace - and nobody says so of course.

Then the other side of the coin - how does the Muslim World fare ITTL? The great advances in science not widely publicised and an analogue to European Middle Ages level of literacy all through the years? Would the Mongols then sack Mecca when and if they come around?

Hence both Europe and the Muslim World would entertain as the height of science the advances of the Classical World - Greek and Roman for another 500 years?

Though the Muslim World would still enjoy an edge as it holds the industry of papermaking of papyrus but still as scrolls.

As an aside - how far would the Chinese Empire stretch into Central Asia with a Chinese victor at Talas? Would it help to not make the Chinese isolate themselves and keep the grand outlook on the world in the end colonizing the Americas and Australia while Europeans still discuss how many Angels would be able to dance on the tip of a needle?

wiki Battle of Talas

wiki Printing Press

[stevep]

Oct 30, 2021 10:17:18 GMT 575 said:

Just watched a documentary on invention of writing and printing - so what how would mainly Europe develop without the Abbasids capturing the Chinese Army Train in the wake of the Battle of Talas or being defeated?

It seems to come down to trade - if the Europeans in day and age didn't get paper as OTL from the Muslim World the medium for the printing press would be infinitely more expensive continue barring the spread of literacy and thinking in Europe. Thus in the end no Renaisance of Thought and Science and less development until the secret of making paper would spread eventually; by the time of Mongol conquest of China at least 500 years later.

Hence the printing press wouldn't make an impact untill round 1940! If stuff progress in OTL pace - and nobody says so of course.

Then the other side of the coin - how does the Muslim World fare ITTL? The great advances in science not widely publicised and an analogue to European Middle Ages level of literacy all through the years? Would the Mongols then sack Mecca when and if they come around?

Hence both Europe and the Muslim World would entertain as the height of science the advances of the Classical World - Greek and Roman for another 500 years?

Though the Muslim World would still enjoy an edge as it holds the industry of papermaking of papyrus but still as scrolls.

As an aside - how far would the Chinese Empire stretch into Central Asia with a Chinese victor at Talas? Would it help to not make the Chinese isolate themselves and keep the grand outlook on the world in the end colonizing the Americas and Australia while Europeans still discuss how many Angels would be able to dance on the tip of a needle?

wiki Battle of Talas

wiki Printing Press

  I suspect that the spread of the knowledge wouldn't be delayed that much as its likely to end up being transferred some time within a few decades or possibly a century or two.  Especially if the Tang dynasty stays a prominent factor in central Asia for a while longer.  Its likely to open up more trade links with the west - including the Muslim world here.  Or its sheer size and wealth attracting people from many parts of the old world.  Alternatively if it collapses through overstretch then again you might see refugees spreading such knowledge.

  As you say the Muslim world holds the advantage of the primary sources of writing material in terms of papyrus at least until Europe gets the necessary knowledge to use paper.

  I suspect the Tang dynasty and Chinese history wouldn't have greatly changed as it was a hell of a long way from the Chinese heartland here and hence very difficult to keep that territory under control for all the potential wealth from it.  However definitely an interesting idea.

[575]

Oct 30, 2021 14:25:28 GMT stevep said:

Oct 30, 2021 10:17:18 GMT 575 said:

Just watched a documentary on invention of writing and printing - so what how would mainly Europe develop without the Abbasids capturing the Chinese Army Train in the wake of the Battle of Talas or being defeated?

It seems to come down to trade - if the Europeans in day and age didn't get paper as OTL from the Muslim World the medium for the printing press would be infinitely more expensive continue barring the spread of literacy and thinking in Europe. Thus in the end no Renaisance of Thought and Science and less development until the secret of making paper would spread eventually; by the time of Mongol conquest of China at least 500 years later.

Hence the printing press wouldn't make an impact untill round 1940! If stuff progress in OTL pace - and nobody says so of course.

Then the other side of the coin - how does the Muslim World fare ITTL? The great advances in science not widely publicised and an analogue to European Middle Ages level of literacy all through the years? Would the Mongols then sack Mecca when and if they come around?

Hence both Europe and the Muslim World would entertain as the height of science the advances of the Classical World - Greek and Roman for another 500 years?

Though the Muslim World would still enjoy an edge as it holds the industry of papermaking of papyrus but still as scrolls.

As an aside - how far would the Chinese Empire stretch into Central Asia with a Chinese victor at Talas? Would it help to not make the Chinese isolate themselves and keep the grand outlook on the world in the end colonizing the Americas and Australia while Europeans still discuss how many Angels would be able to dance on the tip of a needle?

wiki Battle of Talas

wiki Printing Press

  I suspect that the spread of the knowledge wouldn't be delayed that much as its likely to end up being transferred some time within a few decades or possibly a century or two.  Especially if the Tang dynasty stays a prominent factor in central Asia for a while longer.  Its likely to open up more trade links with the west - including the Muslim world here.  Or its sheer size and wealth attracting people from many parts of the old world.  Alternatively if it collapses through overstretch then again you might see refugees spreading such knowledge.

  As you say the Muslim world holds the advantage of the primary sources of writing material in terms of papyrus at least until Europe gets the necessary knowledge to use paper.

  I suspect the Tang dynasty and Chinese history wouldn't have greatly changed as it was a hell of a long way from the Chinese heartland here and hence very difficult to keep that territory under control for all the potential wealth from it.  However definitely an interesting idea.

stevep;

500 years does seem a stretch so a couple of hundred of years seems more likely - as silk it would be smuggled out at some time if someones tempted.

Even 1 or 2 hundred years would make for some interesting lapse of time. Have to give it some more thought.

[575]

A different Caliphate?

If the Abbasid's defeat the Chinese but doesn't capture the Chinese Army Train they don't get papermaking (yeah sounding all early Civilization-esque but do read on) but they still have a monopoly on Papyrus-scrollpaper. All well but the European Renaissance may be delayed one or two centuries.

However having read just a bit on the era - and being no authority on this time of the Muslim World - the Abbasid's had just come to power. If they were defeated by the Chinese things may get somewhat different!
Assuming the Chinese occupy a larger part of Central Asia Samakand of course being the great prize - and where Abbasid papermaking is set up - but also Bukhara and generally the lands west to the Caspian Sea and into Northern Iran the Abbasid's may just get wiped off the board in the Caliphate with the Ummayyads trying to regain power and the Shiite setting up their own Caliphate possibly all topped off with rebellions in places like Syria, North Africa and Spain.

In this case we may not see Ulugh Beg making an imprint on history and the European Renaissance may be postponed even more due to chaos in the Muslim World and even if following the overthrow of the Emperor Huang-tsung - which may not happen ITTL as his Army didn't lose the Battle of Talas but the Empire had been expanded - the secret of paper may seep out of China.
Though with the southern part of the "Silk-road" in chaos and the Chinese controlling the northern part they may still keep paper-making to themselves for some time.

Off the track or???

[stevep]

Oct 31, 2021 9:17:35 GMT 575 said:

A different Caliphate?

If the Abbasid's defeat the Chinese but doesn't capture the Chinese Army Train they don't get papermaking (yeah sounding all early Civilization-esque but do read on) but they still have a monopoly on Papyrus-scrollpaper. All well but the European Renaissance may be delayed one or two centuries.

However having read just a bit on the era - and being no authority on this time of the Muslim World - the Abbasid's had just come to power. If they were defeated by the Chinese things may get somewhat different!
Assuming the Chinese occupy a larger part of Central Asia Samakand of course being the great prize - and where Abbasid papermaking is set up - but also Bukhara and generally the lands west to the Caspian Sea and into Northern Iran the Abbasid's may just get wiped off the board in the Caliphate with the Ummayyads trying to regain power and the Shiite setting up their own Caliphate possibly all topped off with rebellions in places like Syria, North Africa and Spain.

In this case we may not see Ulugh Beg making an imprint on history and the European Renaissance may be postponed even more due to chaos in the Muslim World and even if following the overthrow of the Emperor Huang-tsung - which may not happen ITTL as his Army didn't lose the Battle of Talas but the Empire had been expanded - the secret of paper may seep out of China.
Though with the southern part of the "Silk-road" in chaos and the Chinese controlling the northern part they may still keep paper-making to themselves for some time.

Off the track or???

  Interesting.  If the Arab world is thrown into chaos earlier and China occupies virtually all central Asia might it impact the spread of Islam?  Its going to lose a fair bit of credibility with such a large defeat and might also face persecution in some of those lands.  A lot of the Turks could stay non-Muslim for a while longer.  Possibly persistence of Buddhism in the region or with a spread that far west the Tang are going to be very close to if not in touch with both Byzantium and the Khazer empire.  Assuming that Tang power later implodes I wonder if the Khazers end up gaining a lot more influence and Judaism becomes significantly more powerful in western parts of the region.  Possibly even a Zoroastrianism revival in parts of Iran?  Possibly even if they get a decent emperor or two and with Islam in chaos for a few decades an earlier Byzantium revival, in the 8th rather than the 10th century? I would expect that Islam would revive and go on the advance again but it might have less success than OTL in some areas.

  I suspect that the Tang empire will falter, possibly not long after OTL, simply because its really too huge now to control areas so far beyond its heartlands.  You would need a powerful set of forces to maintain such a rule which apart from the costs raises the question of possibly one general deciding to rebel and look eastwards toward the imperial throne.  - Basically the problem Rome had so often and probably not unknown in Chinese history.  However it would give significantly more Chinese interests and cultural impact and as you say some ideas and technology could be delayed in their spread westwards.

[575]

Oct 31, 2021 10:39:37 GMT stevep said:

Oct 31, 2021 9:17:35 GMT 575 said:

A different Caliphate?

If the Abbasid's defeat the Chinese but doesn't capture the Chinese Army Train they don't get papermaking (yeah sounding all early Civilization-esque but do read on) but they still have a monopoly on Papyrus-scrollpaper. All well but the European Renaissance may be delayed one or two centuries.

However having read just a bit on the era - and being no authority on this time of the Muslim World - the Abbasid's had just come to power. If they were defeated by the Chinese things may get somewhat different!
Assuming the Chinese occupy a larger part of Central Asia Samakand of course being the great prize - and where Abbasid papermaking is set up - but also Bukhara and generally the lands west to the Caspian Sea and into Northern Iran the Abbasid's may just get wiped off the board in the Caliphate with the Ummayyads trying to regain power and the Shiite setting up their own Caliphate possibly all topped off with rebellions in places like Syria, North Africa and Spain.

In this case we may not see Ulugh Beg making an imprint on history and the European Renaissance may be postponed even more due to chaos in the Muslim World and even if following the overthrow of the Emperor Huang-tsung - which may not happen ITTL as his Army didn't lose the Battle of Talas but the Empire had been expanded - the secret of paper may seep out of China.
Though with the southern part of the "Silk-road" in chaos and the Chinese controlling the northern part they may still keep paper-making to themselves for some time.

Off the track or???

  Interesting.  If the Arab world is thrown into chaos earlier and China occupies virtually all central Asia might it impact the spread of Islam?  Its going to lose a fair bit of credibility with such a large defeat and might also face persecution in some of those lands.  A lot of the Turks could stay non-Muslim for a while longer.  Possibly persistence of Buddhism in the region or with a spread that far west the Tang are going to be very close to if not in touch with both Byzantium and the Khazer empire.  Assuming that Tang power later implodes I wonder if the Khazers end up gaining a lot more influence and Judaism becomes significantly more powerful in western parts of the region.  Possibly even a Zoroastrianism revival in parts of Iran?  Possibly even if they get a decent emperor or two and with Islam in chaos for a few decades an earlier Byzantium revival, in the 8th rather than the 10th century? I would expect that Islam would revive and go on the advance again but it might have less success than OTL in some areas.

  I suspect that the Tang empire will falter, possibly not long after OTL, simply because its really too huge now to control areas so far beyond its heartlands.  You would need a powerful set of forces to maintain such a rule which apart from the costs raises the question of possibly one general deciding to rebel and look eastwards toward the imperial throne.  - Basically the problem Rome had so often and probably not unknown in Chinese history.  However it would give significantly more Chinese interests and cultural impact and as you say some ideas and technology could be delayed in their spread westwards.

stevep;

Did a little more reading - zoroastrianism had faced persecution post Islamic conquest but the northeast less than central Iran so I think a revival is a possible.

Ah yes the Khazars and Byzantium and even Vikings soon to arrive.

I have to look a little closer on the Khazars. Did some reading on the Vikings/Varangians in Russia recently - seemed some kind of etnic syncretism took place resulting in the Kievian Rus.

Without the great threat of the Arabs the Byzantines might have some time to spare for the Bulgars.

[575]

Vikings/Varangians/Rus:
A mix of Scandinavians and Slavs. The Scandinavians began trading in Slav lands some time post 550 as coins in Estonia and Scandinavia attest to; perhaps the Arab silver coinage was adopted.
Republic of Novgorod founded 750 by Scandinavians.
Islamic writings of Scandinavians in "Russia" since 844.
Kiev Empire founded 860.
The Scandinavian empirebuilding founded on the Neva - Ladoga - Lovat - Dneipr - Kiev ultimately leading to Constantinoble.

The Scandinavians also traded further east on the Volga down it to the Caspian Sea and into Persia and Central Asia.
Further east is the Volga Bulgars on the upper part of that river and Kama River. The Khazars on the lower part with the capital at Itil/Atil in the delta on the Caspian Sea.

The Scandinavians are on the fringe of Central Asia but do have an interest in the area and the goods it can provide hence they will be a player and they did manage to attack Constantinoble! Though ITTL they may not have the strenght to do so.

At least they may transport ideas and cultural items fra China to Scandinavia and Western Europe through the "Northern Route" into the Baltic and North Sea and this route would be controlled by the Chinese all the way to the Caspian Sea - at least for some time.
They did transport the Byzantine royal garments to Scandinavia! Also Greek-orthodox confession travelled that route to Scandinavia early on.

Ultimately the Scandinavian/Rus Empires would defeat the Khazars.

[575]

This is very much an early sketch.

Khazars:
A remnant of the Gokturk Empire of Central Asia and Mongolian steppe.
They occupied the lands of Caucasus and steppe areas north of Black and Caspian Seas. They frequently allied to the Byzantine Empire against the Ummayyad Caliphate but made peace with the Abbasids post 758. Thus ITTL they might try their hand at carving something out of the Caliphate for themselves.
Problem is of course how much if any of their lands to the east of the Caspian Sea the Chinese might like to gobble up. If not the Khazars may coexist along the Chinese in the north cooperate in controlling trade along the northern route of the Silk Way to the Varangians/Rus and Constantinoble of which the latter would swallow up the big part of the trade volume. Maybe the Byzantines will see the advantage of propping up the Khazars should they at some time falter because of Chinese or Varangian/Rus pressure.

It is at this time that the Khazars convert to Judaism.

Byzantine Empire:
Even if there is no renaissance ITTL the Byzantine Emperors will have to guard the borders with the Caliphate but will have more forces to throw at the Bulgars and eventually the Magyars.

Charlemagne:
Has just come to power a few years previously along his brother Carloman.
This situation may give some quiet in the Spanish March depending of course on the Cordoba Emir.
As a Dane I might lose Ogier les Danois! - but as there isn't much activity there in the early reign things may only change later.

China:
If the Battle of Talas isn't lost the Tang Dynasti may continue for some time perhaps averting the An Shi/Lushan Rebellion and the Tibetan short occupation of Chang'An.
The Turks of Central Asia may find the time ripe to quit Chinese ruled areas of the Anxi Protectorate and meddle in the civil war of the Caliphate adding to the chaos and helping the Chinese control Central Asia.
The problem isn't really when the Chinese Empire collapse – it probably will at some point prior to the Mongols of 1220. And get restored behind new borders further east.

India:
This may be the place of most change without a strong Islamic drive into India due to the civil war in the Caliphate with Turks of Central Asia meddling on the Indian's doorstep and possible turk Khazars going south of the Caucasus the warriors may spend little time thinking of invading India; then the fighting on the other side of the borders will alarm the Indian rulers to keep vigilant – I assume and don't see why they wouldn't – and possibly at some points leading expeditions into the Iranian part of the Caliphate to ensure quiet on their borders.

Comments most welcome!