3 Russian (Russian Republic, Rump Soviet Union and the Far Eastern Republic)

[stevep]

   A lot would depend on how economically and socially viable the three states are.  As I understand it a lot of the selling of weapons was at least partly due to the collapse of the government structure and especially many people being left unpaid and feeling deeply unappreciated and hence having no sense of loyalty to the 'state' that formally employed them.  There were a number who were basically corrupt, and will always have some like that but the collapse of the society identity meant that there were far more incentive to take bribes, for weapons sells or other activities and less checks on people doing so.  [Even in the USSR, which was deeply corrupt in itself there were countervailing factors to reduce the level of corruption in some cases].

[lordroel]

Nov 17, 2021 16:15:21 GMT stevep said:

   A lot would depend on how economically and socially viable the three states are.  As I understand it a lot of the selling of weapons was at least partly due to the collapse of the government structure and especially many people being left unpaid and feeling deeply unappreciated and hence having no sense of loyalty to the 'state' that formally employed them.  There were a number who were basically corrupt, and will always have some like that but the collapse of the society identity meant that there were far more incentive to take bribes, for weapons sells or other activities and less checks on people doing so.  [Even in the USSR, which was deeply corrupt in itself there were countervailing factors to reduce the level of corruption in some cases].

Well the Rump soviet Union can sell oil to China.

The Far Eastern Republic sits on Siberian natural resources so the have the income.

The Russian Republic has oil in places like Azerbaijan and what resources Ukraine and Belarus can suply.

[stevep]

Nov 17, 2021 16:22:18 GMT lordroel said:

Nov 17, 2021 16:15:21 GMT stevep said:

   A lot would depend on how economically and socially viable the three states are.  As I understand it a lot of the selling of weapons was at least partly due to the collapse of the government structure and especially many people being left unpaid and feeling deeply unappreciated and hence having no sense of loyalty to the 'state' that formally employed them.  There were a number who were basically corrupt, and will always have some like that but the collapse of the society identity meant that there were far more incentive to take bribes, for weapons sells or other activities and less checks on people doing so.  [Even in the USSR, which was deeply corrupt in itself there were countervailing factors to reduce the level of corruption in some cases].

Well the Rump soviet Union can sell oil to China.

The Far Eastern Republic sits on Siberian natural resources so the have the income.

The Russian Republic has oil in places like Azerbaijan and what resources Ukraine and Belarus can suply.

  True but the Russian Republic of OTL had most of those resources, except what was in the republicans that broke away.  However it didn't avoid the economic problems.  This was partly the issue of breaking up the old Soviet era bureaucracy and levels of corruption and partly that Russia was encouraged into a free-market frenzy that basically reinforced the power of those old elites while hanging much of the population out to dry economically.

[gillan1220]

Nov 17, 2021 16:22:18 GMT lordroel said:

Nov 17, 2021 16:15:21 GMT stevep said:

   A lot would depend on how economically and socially viable the three states are.  As I understand it a lot of the selling of weapons was at least partly due to the collapse of the government structure and especially many people being left unpaid and feeling deeply unappreciated and hence having no sense of loyalty to the 'state' that formally employed them.  There were a number who were basically corrupt, and will always have some like that but the collapse of the society identity meant that there were far more incentive to take bribes, for weapons sells or other activities and less checks on people doing so.  [Even in the USSR, which was deeply corrupt in itself there were countervailing factors to reduce the level of corruption in some cases].

Well the Rump soviet Union can sell oil to China.

The Far Eastern Republic sits on Siberian natural resources so the have the income.

The Russian Republic has oil in places like Azerbaijan and what resources Ukraine and Belarus can suply.

Beijing may want to influence the Far Eastern Republic. Have it into its orbit so China can have the resources.

[stevep]

Nov 18, 2021 3:19:56 GMT gillan1220 said:

Nov 17, 2021 16:22:18 GMT lordroel said:

Well the Rump soviet Union can sell oil to China.

The Far Eastern Republic sits on Siberian natural resources so the have the income.

The Russian Republic has oil in places like Azerbaijan and what resources Ukraine and Belarus can suply.

Beijing may want to influence the Far Eastern Republic. Have it into its orbit so China can have the resources.

  Very true especially since it has historical 'claims' on important chunks of it.  The biggest danger, as long as the FER can maintain a nuclear deterrent, would probably be a slow absorption of the state by Chinese immigration.  This is I believe an issue OTL with increasing numbers of Chinese moving into eastern Siberia.

[gillan1220]

Nov 18, 2021 11:33:16 GMT stevep said:

Nov 18, 2021 3:19:56 GMT gillan1220 said:

Beijing may want to influence the Far Eastern Republic. Have it into its orbit so China can have the resources.

  Very true especially since it has historical 'claims' on important chunks of it.  The biggest danger, as long as the FER can maintain a nuclear deterrent, would probably be a slow absorption of the state by Chinese immigration.  This is I believe an issue OTL with increasing numbers of Chinese moving into eastern Siberia.

Russian nationalists try to bring this idea that the Chinese are slowly immigrating in the area to make the area Chinese overtime. Another way to retake lost land without deploying tanks and soldiers.

Of course, the Far East Republic would have a descent arsenal to deter Beijing if it got ideas. So Beijing naturally would do is to make the Far East Republic an economy ally to make it overdependent on the PRC. Put some projects and debt traps then China effectively has the FER on its orbit.