lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 14, 2021 13:47:32 GMT
So with the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt resulting in a 2nd Russian Civil War the former Soviet Union ends up like this, the (Russian Republic in Blue a pro-Europe country, in red the Rump Soviet Union which is in between a Belarus type of dictatorship going to be the route of North Korea paranoid and the Far Eastern Republic who has tensions with China and cannot stand North Korea due its support of the Rump Soviet Union.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 14, 2021 16:22:35 GMT
So with the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt resulting in a 2nd Russian Civil War the former Soviet Union ends up like this, the (Russian Republic in Blue a pro-Europe country, in red the Rump Soviet Union which is in between a Belarus type of dictatorship going to be the route of North Korea paranoid and the Far Eastern Republic who has tensions with China and cannot stand North Korea due its support of the Rump Soviet Union.
The problem I see here is that, other than some raw materials, the bulk of the resources are with the Russian Republic, with the majority of the population, food supply and industry as well as the oil of the Caucasus. Mind you given the nationalist tensions would a democratic Russian state be able to hold onto assorted Republics, from Ukraine down in size to the Baltics and Armenia say?
The rump USSR is between a rock and a hard place. Its got a fair amount of industry if the Urals and other places aren't battered too much in the civil war and a fair amount of nukes but relatively little food production and a hell of a lot of Muslims - possibly even a majority - albeit that their divided into assorted national groups themselves. That could mean some serious issues with identity for the state. If its going down the paranoid route then it could get very nasty for everybody there.
For the Far Eastern Republic, as long as it can maintain the Pacific fleet its got a powerful nuclear deterrent but its very short of everything else but empty land. As such its going to be very vulnerable to encroachment from either its western or southern neighbour, at worst possible even both.
The other issue is that Russia has a very strong national identity so I would think that at least the 1st two would look to 're-unification' ASAP but of course on their terms. Things might work out but there's likely to be some sort of conflict sooner or later.
Steve
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Post by lordroel on Nov 14, 2021 16:37:14 GMT
So with the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt resulting in a 2nd Russian Civil War the former Soviet Union ends up like this, the (Russian Republic in Blue a pro-Europe country, in red the Rump Soviet Union which is in between a Belarus type of dictatorship going to be the route of North Korea paranoid and the Far Eastern Republic who has tensions with China and cannot stand North Korea due its support of the Rump Soviet Union. The problem I see here is that, other than some raw materials, the bulk of the resources are with the Russian Republic, with the majority of the population, food supply and industry as well as the oil of the Caucasus. Mind you given the nationalist tensions would a democratic Russian state be able to hold onto assorted Republics, from Ukraine down in size to the Baltics and Armenia say? The rump USSR is between a rock and a hard place. Its got a fair amount of industry if the Urals and other places aren't battered too much in the civil war and a fair amount of nukes but relatively little food production and a hell of a lot of Muslims - possibly even a majority - albeit that their divided into assorted national groups themselves. That could mean some serious issues with identity for the state. If its going down the paranoid route then it could get very nasty for everybody there. For the Far Eastern Republic, as long as it can maintain the Pacific fleet its got a powerful nuclear deterrent but its very short of everything else but empty land. As such its going to be very vulnerable to encroachment from either its western or southern neighbour, at worst possible even both. The other issue is that Russia has a very strong national identity so I would think that at least the 1st two would look to 're-unification' ASAP but of course on their terms. Things might work out but there's likely to be some sort of conflict sooner or later.
Steve
The Far Eastern Republic has a lot of wealth in its territory, just needs to get it out. Most of the former Soviet Nuclear balletic missile basses seems to be under the control of the Rump Soviet Union.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 14, 2021 17:22:13 GMT
The problem I see here is that, other than some raw materials, the bulk of the resources are with the Russian Republic, with the majority of the population, food supply and industry as well as the oil of the Caucasus. Mind you given the nationalist tensions would a democratic Russian state be able to hold onto assorted Republics, from Ukraine down in size to the Baltics and Armenia say? The rump USSR is between a rock and a hard place. Its got a fair amount of industry if the Urals and other places aren't battered too much in the civil war and a fair amount of nukes but relatively little food production and a hell of a lot of Muslims - possibly even a majority - albeit that their divided into assorted national groups themselves. That could mean some serious issues with identity for the state. If its going down the paranoid route then it could get very nasty for everybody there. For the Far Eastern Republic, as long as it can maintain the Pacific fleet its got a powerful nuclear deterrent but its very short of everything else but empty land. As such its going to be very vulnerable to encroachment from either its western or southern neighbour, at worst possible even both. The other issue is that Russia has a very strong national identity so I would think that at least the 1st two would look to 're-unification' ASAP but of course on their terms. Things might work out but there's likely to be some sort of conflict sooner or later.
Steve
The Far Eastern Republic has a lot of wealth in its territory, just needs to get it out. Most of the former Soviet Nuclear balletic missile basses seems to be under the control of the Rump Soviet Union.
That last bit is especially worrying if it starts going the NK route. The other two groups will have the SSBNs although whether the FER can maintain its subs could be an issue.
One issue is that the old USSR was very interconnected - in part by intent of the government. As such a lot of links will be broken even without the civil war so many economic activities will be distinctly restricted.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 14, 2021 19:25:02 GMT
That last bit is especially worrying if it starts going the NK route. The other two groups will have the SSBNs although whether the FER can maintain its subs could be an issue.
The FER just needs to maintain enough boomers in service to be have a credible deterrent in case of a Rump Soviet Union ore Chinese attack. |
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 16, 2021 11:49:02 GMT
One of the reasons why the international community feared a collapse of the USSR was what would happen to the nuclear weapons. This reminds me of TheRomanSlayer's Rogue Generals. |
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Post by stevep on Nov 16, 2021 11:57:15 GMT
That last bit is especially worrying if it starts going the NK route. The other two groups will have the SSBNs although whether the FER can maintain its subs could be an issue.
The FER just needs to maintain enough boomers in service to be have a credible deterrent in case of a Rump Soviet Union ore Chinese attack.
True but do they have the capacity. There's an operational base in the Far East but does it have the capacity to perform maintenance let alone reactor refueling and the like? Plus could the state produce the necessary components or are they all manufactured in somewhere in one of the other two states?
You could have them maintaining a limited deterrent by moving subs to different locations to act as stationary launch sites while they are still capable of moving but that basically makes them ICBM launchers but rather more vulnerable than in hardened silos.
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Post by stevep on Nov 16, 2021 11:58:42 GMT
One of the reasons why the international community feared a collapse of the USSR was what would happen to the nuclear weapons. This reminds me of TheRomanSlayer 's Rogue Generals.
Very true except that in RG its not just the former USSR that's seeing distinctly deranged leadership!  Here its basically one component of the former USSR, albeit that's far too heavily armed. |
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 16, 2021 16:14:14 GMT
One of the reasons why the international community feared a collapse of the USSR was what would happen to the nuclear weapons. This reminds me of TheRomanSlayer 's Rogue Generals.
Very true except that in RG its not just the former USSR that's seeing distinctly deranged leadership! Here its basically one component of the former USSR, albeit that's far too heavily armed. The rump Russian state in Central Asia would probably be the most volatile. Islamic terrorists could strike a deal with the corrupt leader for nuclear weapons or materiel to develop one themselves. This was the issue seen in Air Force One (1997) where a rogue colonel leaders Kazakhstan as a rump USSR. Knowing Kazakhstan had around 1,410 Soviet strategic nuclear warheads placed on its territory and an undisclosed number of tactical nuclear weapons. |
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Post by lordroel on Nov 16, 2021 16:20:03 GMT
Very true except that in RG its not just the former USSR that's seeing distinctly deranged leadership! Here its basically one component of the former USSR, albeit that's far too heavily armed. The rump Russian state in Central Asia would probably be the most volatile. Islamic terrorists could strike a deal with the corrupt leader for nuclear weapons or materiel to develop one themselves. Ore the Rump Soviet Union could use a lot of force to deal with any terrorist ore any separatist movements like the Chechen Wars. |
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 17, 2021 1:42:39 GMT
The rump Russian state in Central Asia would probably be the most volatile. Islamic terrorists could strike a deal with the corrupt leader for nuclear weapons or materiel to develop one themselves. Ore the Rump Soviet Union could use a lot of force to deal with any terrorist ore any separatist movements like the Chechen Wars. But there will also be rogue or corrupt officers that would be willing to sell nuclear materiel or even the weapons themselves for a quick buck. |
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Post by lordroel on Nov 17, 2021 4:08:57 GMT
Ore the Rump Soviet Union could use a lot of force to deal with any terrorist ore any separatist movements like the Chechen Wars. But there will also be rogue or corrupt officers that would be willing to sell nuclear materiel or even the weapons themselves for a quick buck. That was also the fear Western countries had in OTL, but lucky none of that happened. |
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 17, 2021 4:12:49 GMT
But there will also be rogue or corrupt officers that would be willing to sell nuclear materiel or even the weapons themselves for a quick buck. That was also the fear Western countries had in OTL, but lucky none of that happened. Those fears were justified. Soviet followed by its Russian transparency and record-keeping is known to be unreliable. |
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Post by lordroel on Nov 17, 2021 4:14:37 GMT
That was also the fear Western countries had in OTL, but lucky none of that happened. Those fears were justified. Soviet followed by its Russian transparency and record-keeping is known to be unreliable. Wich will be the case here, by all 3 Russians states. |
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 17, 2021 4:25:29 GMT
Those fears were justified. Soviet followed by its Russian transparency and record-keeping is known to be unreliable. Wich will be the case here, by all 3 Russians states. Especially many military officers and public officials were corrupt and could be bribed. |
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Here its basically one component of the former USSR, albeit that's far too heavily armed.