Choices: Simon Goes A-Timelining/ISOTing

[simon darkshade]

Miletus,

1.) That is a good start. I'll see what books I can dig up on the issue in July; the next month is going to be blocked out with uni research and work rather than more pleasant research.
1a.) I'll add them to the list.
2.) We probably won't see the more egregious of those effects here in the absence of a Democrat in the White House from 1912-1916, at the least. 1916-1920 might be their opening, but it will be some different personnel by then.
3.) The USN 12" designs look familiar, based on years moping around on the sadly departed Warships Projects Discussion Board. Interesting on the Drive/Speed interplay. We'll see about how the limits get expanded.
4.) I've never been a fan/in awe of the South Dakotas. The four turrets and maybe the shape of the foreward superstructure are the only aesthetically pleasing note. As designs, they are a lot for not much in many ways.

Simon

[miletus12]

May 26, 2022 12:52:47 GMT simon darkshade said:

Bii.) There wouldn't be a Versailles equivalent in terms of restricting the Germans to the same extent. It really depends on what they bring to a putative fleet battle and how it games out. Right now, on the facts as they stand, if it comes to a surface engagement between the HSF and Grand Fleet, the first generation German ships get blown to pieces and the second generation fare slightly better but need luck to get out alive, leaving their Bayerns and 2-4 of their 15" battlecruisers. Bigger and more advanced RN guns, faster ships that can set the range that suits them, effective shells, advanced fire control, a lot of destroyers with powerful torpedoes trained for a sniping role...it doesn't bode well for Der Tag.

Hmmm. Jutland was decided by tactics (Jellico good. Scheer fair. Hipper brilliant. Beatty should have been beached for incompetence.). British shells were "unacceptable". British destroyer work was generally "unacceptable". British scouting and reporting, depended on the subordinates doing it, but in the particular case of Beatty, was "unacceptable".

German WWI gunnery fire control was specifically designed for North Sea optical and weather conditions. So were their guns. If they get within belt punching range the RN is going (and did) have a very bad day.

So, the time traveler with regards to this problem has to address;
--'light gathering optics' It is kind of hard to adjust ranges through fogged telescopes.
--Argo Clock is better than Admiralty Range Table.
--observer and tracking party eye and mental calculations fatigue. *The Germans had relief parties set up for the problem. The British did not.
--shell fuse design and hard nose caps. Ask the Americans about Midvales.
--propellants and shell hoist problem. It will take more than reversing the Beatty idiocies (Removing the fire path safety barrier doors for example. M.) to correct the "fires started in the gun house go straight to the magazines and kaboom problem'. One might want to change the propellant to one that requires electric ignition rather than heat or kinetic shock?
--Find a suitable replacement for Beatty and his Boys Club. Scott still around?

[simon darkshade]

To begin with, I refer you to the posts made upthread about the different RN guns and armour. This is not a case of a facsimile.

RN Brainstorming:
- The German 28cm L/45 carried on the historical Nassaus could penetrate 11” of belt armour at 11,000 yards and 8” at 13,000 yards. Defending BBs against that is straightforward and BCs a bit more difficult
- Jerry then went to a 12”/50 for the bulk of their other Dreadnoughts. That could penetrate 13.6” at 11,000 yards and 12” at 13,000 yards
- There isn’t any data on Navweaps for the 35cm as it never went to sea, but approximate figures can be extrapolated from the performance of their 38cm gun
- As it is too costly to field DN1s with 14” belts, there needs to be the tactics and weapons to fight at more than 13,000 yards
- The Nassaus and Helgolands had 300mm belts and the Kaisers and Konigs 350mm. To penetrate 12” and 14” at 15,000 yards, a 12”/50 needs the superheavy shells used by the Yanks on the Alaskas
- British turrets will have a higher maximum elevation of 30 degrees, allowing much longer ranged fire; deck penetration needs a few other tricks
- www.admiraltytrilogy.com/pdf/Jutland_Impact.pdf
This is a shorter version of a subject gone into great detail in The Riddle of the Shells in Conway’s Warship journal.
- Rather than Lyddite, there is time to get Shellite developed and used for naval shell filling
- The 15”/50 DN2 shells will be 2000lb in their ordinary version and have the capacity to penetrate German belts at every reasonable combat range for the era

- 12” on the DN1s and 15” on the DN2s makes for strong ships, but their advantage in guns, fire control and speed over their opponents exacerbates this. Throw in secondary fire from 5”/45 twin turrets for extra seasoning

- To add insult to injury, as it were, the 9.2”/50 offers some useful potential for development, particularly once it’s dispersion issues are addressed and a superheavy shell introduced. They aren’t meant to be used in the main fleet battle, but have the potential for long range use in other engagements against colonial squadrons

- In destroyers, the RN already had generally larger prewar ships than the Germans in @. This will be more pronounced, with better guns, better torpedoes and greater speed

So, the shells issue is being specifically addressed, internally, as is the issue of propellant. Fire control, in all its subsidiary facets, is a vital matter that will see work and change from 1900 onwards. The combination of knowing what will work, having extensive technical books on it and 15 years to work the problem adds up. The aim in every respect is not to get to a polished 1916 level, but above and beyond it.

Beatty won’t have a battlecruiser force, but most likely the Mediterranean Fleet and its own mission.

Scouting will be done by airships, aircraft, cruiser squadrons and a lot of destroyers; the total number of RN destroyers involved will be at least double. There will be multiple carriers coming out with the GF.

The Grand Fleet will be equipped with guns capable of penetrating German belts at ranges that the German guns can’t match, and they will be markedly heavier to boot.

[miletus12]

May 26, 2022 15:16:48 GMT simon darkshade said:

To begin with, I refer you to the posts made upthread about the different RN guns and armour. This is not a case of a facsimile.

RN Brainstorming:
- The German 28cm L/45 carried on the historical Nassaus could penetrate 11” of belt armour at 11,000 yards and 8” at 13,000 yards. Defending BBs against that is straightforward and BCs a bit more difficult
- Jerry then went to a 12”/50 for the bulk of their other Dreadnoughts. That could penetrate 13.6” at 11,000 yards and 12” at 13,000 yards
- There isn’t any data on Navweaps for the 35cm as it never went to sea, but approximate figures can be extrapolated from the performance of their 38cm gun
- As it is too costly to field DN1s with 14” belts, there needs to be the tactics and weapons to fight at more than 13,000 yards
- The Nassaus and Helgolands had 300mm belts and the Kaisers and Konigs 350mm. To penetrate 12” and 14” at 15,000 yards, a 12”/50 needs the superheavy shells used by the Yanks on the Alaskas
- British turrets will have a higher maximum elevation of 30 degrees, allowing much longer ranged fire; deck penetration needs a few other tricks
- www.admiraltytrilogy.com/pdf/Jutland_Impact.pdf
This is a shorter version of a subject gone into great detail in The Riddle of the Shells in Conway’s Warship journal.
- Rather than Lyddite, there is time to get Shellite developed and used for naval shell filling
- The 15”/50 DN2 shells will be 2000lb in their ordinary version and have the capacity to penetrate German belts at every reasonable combat range for the era

Counterpoint is physics.

Two items, one is basic geometry and the other is something called probability of hits.

In parallel order one can manage a uniform range distribution on either a convergent or divergent track merge. The faster fleet can dictate how this merge occurs. Crossing the T, which is the shibboleth and ideal of armchair battleship admirals, introduces a plotted cosine function or an inverted U as you graph the longer ranges of the ends of the cross bar of the T relative to the stem. In simple English, while your middle division is shooting up his van, your van and rear divisions are OUT OF EFFECTIVE HIT RANGE of his middle and rear divisions. One simultaneous counterturn away and he escapes you. Time to execute, a function of track solution is 400 seconds. Jellico did not understand this aspect of steam propelled warships. Scheer did. So annihilation or even major damage is not in the cards unless one forces a parallel order fight.

Next point is fleet control and communication. The maneuver problem and getting people to do their jobs.

In WWI, IN THE RN> this is by searchlight messenger lamp or by flags. Radio is still spark morse and is 80% unreliable. Jellico's line is 30 nautm. long and it takes 3 minutes to execute a line instruction by Chinese tele semaphore methods more than 2000 years old from middle to both ends of his line. Plus the destroyers are not paying attention to him and neither are most of the cruiser divisions and Beatty is either being stupid or insubordinate as the mood suits him, so in effect, once Jellico has formed his line and put out his flankers and van scouts, he is STUCK. There is not much maneuver option left him except basic course changes to the track and to enforce line discipline. That is just the way it is.    

Scheer has HIPPER and he has a better trained fleet who have learned how to use formatted radio instructions AT NIGHT and day and how to obey those instructions. So Scheer can rely on his destroyers and his battle-cruisers and his key deputy. He only has to transmit a short radio fleet instruction and voila the HSF executes a simultaneous counterturn away from the T-trap , or a van division charge to cover the escape and execute a destroyer attack on their British opposites (which the Germans EASILY win by the way.), and Scheer nimbly escapes the T trap Jellico arranges.

Then in a further display of expertise, in a night action the Germans BREAK Jellico's line and cross through the Grand Fleet to reach home waters after Jellico rather brilliantly, in spite of the British problems mentioned above boxes Scheer and blocks the HSF escape route to the Helgoland Bight.   

What I write here, is that better guns, faster ships or other technical measures are not as important as fixing the Royal Navy's human factors problems on how to obey instructions, show initiative, or how to basically communicate commander intent while allowing subordinate initiative.    

This is NOT the way Jutland is taught in the RN. It is how I learned it. But then I also learned why it took 19 surface gun and torpedo brawls to figure out Tanaka Raizo. 

Physical realities of naval combat. 

As a rough rule of thumb, optical controlled naval gunnery in daylight is <15,000 meters offset with a probability of hits per 4 shot straddle of track (PH), depending on the tech base of the naval artillery employed of 3=>7%. Radar DOUBLES that PH. Anything more than 20,000 meters out is a pure Jesus moment.  You cannot beat those historical daylight numbers. Nighttime, it becomes "iffy" on the numbers because the most reliable data is USN only since the IJN participants did not survive to provide other side metrics and what we have of that USN data is "confused" since a lot of ours did not survive either. But when you read again and again in survivor logs 7,000 yards or 500 feet! and they still miss (the Japanese do at us), one gets the idea that maybe there was a reason Americans liked to brawl at point blank range when they started to win those gun/torpedo fights? 
    
Anyway, it still comes down to human beings. Improve the British Grand Fleet's Training and solve the comms and fleet politics problems in it and Jutland or its ATL equivalent despite the many technical faults present becomes a massacre by the log function of gun power squared.  The HSF should not have even come close to doing what they did.  

[simon darkshade]

There aren’t going to be the many technical faults. The fleet going into action in 1914/15 is not going to be one of that year, nor even of 1918, but substantially in advance of that. So, yes, they will be communicating by wireless as a matter of course and not WW1 wireless to boot. Scheer will not be able to rely on his battlecruisers as they will have already been sunk.

Better communications, better training, better armour, better speed, better guns and overwhelmingly better numbers. This is what is set up to occur, which doesn’t take away from your cogent and detailed analysis of what did occur historically. I’m aware of hit probability; this isn’t my first Jutland in writing and gaming terms.

I want to collage ideas here, but not give away every bit. Suffice it to say that the HSF will be a bit slowed.

[simon darkshade]

In addition to previous colonial ideas, there will also be directed/sponsored migration programmes. These will be based on the idea of using demographic change for political ends.

- Canada, Australia and New Zealand are already working and are the models for some other cases
- South Africa and Rhodesia will be the key ‘targets’, followed by Kenya
- ‘Diluting’ the Afrikaner/Boer number as a percentage of the South African population will have positive results over time
- Fiji has some advantages
- Newfoundland is placed to get more immigration

As of 1901, the population of England and Wales was 32.5 million and Scotland 4.47 million. This is an era when migration, still largely to the USA as well as Canada and Australia, was 8.7 per thousand in England and Wales, and 18.7 per thousand in Scotland; I'd imagine that the Irish number would be even larger. That gives a base annualised upper figure of 282,750 English, 83,500 Scots and at least 150,000 Irish. This yearly outflow of ~500,000 could dramatically alter the demographic balance of any colony. There is a big caveat here that a lot of migrants from Britain in the @ 1890s ended up returning, reducing the net outflow.

www.visionofbritain.org.uk/census/EW1901GEN/4 This is a useful source for demographic considerations in that era

- Many went to the USA and not all of that can be redirected, but at least some can

Malaya 1901: 1,733,700
(1088,900 Malays, 508,500 Chinese, 107,700 Indians, 28,600 Other)

Federated Malay States 1901:
(300,633 Chinese, 283,205 Malay, 1455 European, 835 Eurasian, 58,538 Indian)
Johore: 200,000

Straits Settlements: 572,249
Penang: 248,207
Malacca: 95,487
Singapore: 228,555

Ceylon: 3,565,954

South Africa 1904
(4,078,829 Black, 1,118,856 White, 100,918+ Indian)
Transvaal (299,327 white, 945,598 black)
Orange Free State (142,679 white, 244,636 black)
Natal (100,918 Indian, 97,109 white, 904,041 black)
2,409,801 Cape Colony (579,741 White, 1,516,047 Black)
Basutoland (347,731 black)
Bechuanaland (120,776 black)

Rhodesia 1901
(1,668,743 Black, 12,811 White)
Southern Rhodesia (593,141 Black, 12,623 White)
Northern Rhodesia (338,878 Black, 188 White)
British Central Africa/Eastern Rhodesia (736,724 Black)

Kenya 1901
(4,000,000, with less than 100 whites)

Uganda 1901 (1,808,116)

Fiji 1900 (125,000, with 2500 whites and ~40,000 Indians)

Kuwait 40000

British West Indies 1,685,000

[simon darkshade]

A couple of further ideas:

- Maybe add a reason for going back involving preparing a world for a threat coming at some point in the mid 21st Century
- Once I get into it, I do have a variant whereby the intrepid chap ends up in a different time and place. He can’t recognise it until he sees a billboard sign advertising NukaCola.

His first words: “Fallout. Oh (expletive deleted).”

[simon darkshade]

www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-million-tonnes-of-gold-ore/

This may or may not turn out to be the full amount in reality, but for the purposes of the storyline, I think that it is a good inclusion.

[simon darkshade]

In the last year, I’ve given frequent thought to this story idea, but it has been bumped back in the queue by my job and university. Currently, my first priority of writing is DE, then the Fall and Rise ISOT, then this one, with the Falklands idea being Tail End Charlie for now.

My current vision is to not quite be as dark as originally postulated in 2022, but allow some deeper exploration of a different 20th century, touching on food, film, fiction, architecture and culture just as much as navies, air forces, armies and empires. In doing so, I hope to include the research/material I’ve gathered for a few other threads on AH.com over the last few years.

I’d say the research/background is 35-40% done, possibly more, but that will play out as I spend a few days mulling over it.

Topics that I will be touching on in subsequent days:
Aviation
Automotive
Industry: Heavy and Light
Food and Agriculture
Foreign Policy
Pop Culture, Crime and Misc
Imperial and Colonial Policy
Economics
Minerals and Metallurgy
Science and Technology
Medicine
Domestic Policy

One of the principles I’d like to employ is “to make someone do something you want, give them what they want/need first”:

In the modern era, the old standby of an SI into the position of an absolute ruler isn’t a starter, except maybe the likes of Stalin. Leaders and rulers don’t have absolute carte blanche to push through every idea. This is particularly the case in a democracy.

The likes of an Oversight Committee can push and suggest a lot, but some things are easier to advocate than others.

Tier 1:
Absolute no brainers, such as avoiding disasters, avoidable wars, specific mistakes and the like; plus the positive flip side to that, such as developments of massive benefit to the nation/state, preempting technologies, stealing inventions, securing advantageous treaties.

Tier 2:
Similarly wide reaching benefits, but perhaps a bit down the line or not as immediate/direct

Tier 3:
Reasonably good ideas/much further down the line

Tier 4:
Nice to have as a bonus, but can live and prosper without it.

Tier 5:
Personal interests of the ISOTed person, which often but not always correspond to some interest or liking of the author

For a number of ideas, I tried to ask myself: What interest does the 1929 British Empire/other state with ISOT have in this? The more difficult it is to answer that from the perspective of someone in the storyline, the more explanation and effort is needed.

Here, Jones doesn’t really have any personal influence, nor the power to get “paid off” in certain actions. That in itself provides food for thought.

The way to get around that is to be able to have a rationale for each new development or change. For example, putting in place some extra changes for soccer (such as World Cup participation) might be possible if HM Government could be persuaded that there is some utility in international sporting prestige as well as a flow on effect on national physical fitness et al. It is a little bit of a stretch, but not egregiously so. Museum ships could be “sold” as an idea by referring to national heritage, educational value and creating small localised economic benefit over a long time.

Steps like that make sense, rather than rather old fashioned governments taking on the views of later generations, or certain very modern interests suddenly coming to the fore in 1930s Britain.

From a story point of view, getting the skeleton in place lets one customise the body down the line.

[simon darkshade]

Automotive
- The motor car has already been developed as a base idea, but there is a lot of room forward
- I'm tossing up whether to invest in Henry Ford's company whilst setting up an earlier British company named Ford (or one with a different name) or some other path
- The moving assembly line will be patented by a British subject and introduced into British manufacturing, along with an earlier British equivalent to the Model T
- Major early companies will be Rolls-Royce, Austin, Morris, Vauxhall, 'Ford', Wolseley (Vickers), Siddeley (AW), Daimler, Standard, Triumph, Leyland and a few new ones named Imperial and British Motors
- These would progressively merge and settle into 5 major groups, some of which will be integrated with industrial titans/British zaibatsus such as Vickers, Rolls-Royce and Armstrong-Whitworth
- Investment into facilities across the Empire in Canada, Australia, South Africa and India
- No restriction on lorry manufacturing and some standard types/classes
- Much earlier production of particular models and types, such as the Austin 7
- A 'Great War jeep'

Aviation
- From an earlier 'invention' of powered flight, there will be a somewhat faster move to civil aviation, including the world's first 'airline'
- There will be a heavier British role in airships (move to helium)
- The role and evolution of aviation will depend on how long a Great War type conflict lasts; with a 12 month war, there will be less scope for competitors to catch up
- As observed last year by Steve, one constraint on aircraft development is metallurgy, but this isn't a permanent stricture so much as something that will also need to be progressively addressed
- 21 years out from the ISOT (although I am considering 1895) will see a different world full stop, but particularly insofar as aircraft are concerned

Industry
- British needs to build more steel, modernise/improve its coal sector, improve the arms, rail and textiles sectors to world leadership and accelerate ahead in shipbuilding
- A lot more catching up is needed in chemicals, electrical engineering, machine tools,
- British oil sources, whilst they are there, aren't world changing. Those in the Middle East are

More to come, naturally. These are brainstorming notes, not hard gospel

[stevep]

Aug 2, 2023 2:49:30 GMT simon darkshade said:

Automotive
- The motor car has already been developed as a base idea, but there is a lot of room forward
- I'm tossing up whether to invest in Henry Ford's company whilst setting up an earlier British company named Ford (or one with a different name) or some other path
- The moving assembly line will be patented by a British subject and introduced into British manufacturing, along with an earlier British equivalent to the Model T
- Major early companies will be Rolls-Royce, Austin, Morris, Vauxhall, 'Ford', Wolseley (Vickers), Siddeley (AW), Daimler, Standard, Triumph, Leyland and a few new ones named Imperial and British Motors
- These would progressively merge and settle into 5 major groups, some of which will be integrated with industrial titans/British zaibatsus such as Vickers, Rolls-Royce and Armstrong-Whitworth
- Investment into facilities across the Empire in Canada, Australia, South Africa and India
- No restriction on lorry manufacturing and some standard types/classes
- Much earlier production of particular models and types, such as the Austin 7
- A 'Great War jeep'

Aviation
- From an earlier 'invention' of powered flight, there will be a somewhat faster move to civil aviation, including the world's first 'airline'
- There will be a heavier British role in airships (move to helium)
- The role and evolution of aviation will depend on how long a Great War type conflict lasts; with a 12 month war, there will be less scope for competitors to catch up
- As observed last year by Steve, one constraint on aircraft development is metallurgy, but this isn't a permanent stricture so much as something that will also need to be progressively addressed
- 21 years out from the ISOT (although I am considering 1895) will see a different world full stop, but particularly insofar as aircraft are concerned

Industry
- British needs to build more steel, modernise/improve its coal sector, improve the arms, rail and textiles sectors to world leadership and accelerate ahead in shipbuilding
- A lot more catching up is needed in chemicals, electrical engineering, machine tools,
- British oil sources, whilst they are there, aren't world changing. Those in the Middle East are

More to come, naturally. These are brainstorming notes, not hard gospel

  I think you missed something here?

  Agree with the bulk of what you say.  In terms of the ME would it be useful for everybody to have the House of Saudi never rise to power and being replaced by a more moderate leadership in Arabia?

[simon darkshade]

No, it is an intentional statement as to the value of ME oil.

Definitely agree on the Sauds. The alternate might be less than positive, but anything is better than @ from an 1899 position.

My earlier notes on Colonial Policy:

- Development rather than neglect
- Malaya to advance well up the Kra
- SW Africa and German East Africa are in the way and German New Guinea is too close to Australia
- Form a South African state post war and have Smuts as a South African Expeditionary Force commander
- Encourage British and European migration to South Africa to shift the position of the Afrikaners
- Rhodesia and Kenya to also get sponsored migration
- West Indian colonies being nudged together
- Move towards Imperial integration in stages
- Gandhi vs Zulus
- No partition of Bengal
- Hong Kong to be expanded up past the @ New Territories, which will be ceded in perpetuity

To those, I'd add:

- Libya to be taken from the Ottomans in whatever 'short, glorious war' occurs
- The HK border expansion doesn't completely remove Chinese troubles much later down the line, but changes the complexion of the issue
- German Pacific colonies, including their islands, to be snapped up by British forces in any war, rather than left to Japan and future trouble
- Aden to be separated from British India earlier
- Kenya to serve as the basis for British East Africa (incl Uganda and Tanganyika when it is conquered)
- Engineer a 'creative' solution to the Congo Free State outrage. One course of action that comes to mind is transferring it to German control, minus Katanga...
- Separate the Chagos Islands from Mauritius as a distinct entity
- British (South) Pacific Island colonies to be progressively worked together towards a federation (Tonga, Samoa, Solomons, New Hebrides, Nauru, Cook Islands + Niue, Gilberts and Ellices and Fiji*)
- Offer to buy Easter Island and the Galapagos Islands

Great War Naval Plans
- In a war of up to 24 months, there is scope for a fair bit of an emergency programme to be funded
- Additionally, there would be a 24-36 month period postwar as budgets return to 'peacetime' levels and associated brushfires are put out
- There will be capital ships built or start building during any war, but they won't be for it, but a postwar world
- I can see Heavy and Light Armoured Cruisers/Cruisers emerging prewar, but it would be interesting for a Medium Armoured Cruiser/Medium Cruiser to come along as well. The natural split would be 6", 7.5"-8" and 9.2"-10". The lights are for the fleet and general purpose role, the mediums for trade protection and colonial duties and the heavies for carrier escort, heavy trade protection escort, colonial flagships and fleet work
- There will be a move towards ASW cruisers as well as AAW/ASuW cruisers
- The most significant aspect to come out of a war (in terms of the shape of the postwar RN) is a very strong force of modern destroyers. These would be substantively larger than the prewar 'Standards' of 1250-1600t, coming in at just over 2000t with 5" or 4.9" guns and consequently greater range and more space aboard. The 288 prewar destroyers (minus however many wartime losses) will start to leave service between 1918 (A/B) and 1928 (V/W/Y/Z), being replaced by at least 256 of the newer ships of 1915-1918, which will have 20 year service lives
- Key PDNs and DNs will be saved as museum ships, whilst plenty of others will be sold or see service as depot ships/auxiliary ships/colonial guardships/crane ships/repair ships/etc. A principle will be not to waste a single ship, but to get good value, whether it be in money or service
- There will be a much smaller, but much more powerful battlefleet 

[stevep]

Aug 3, 2023 1:37:10 GMT simon darkshade said:

No, it is an intentional statement as to the value of ME oil.

Definitely agree on the Sauds. The alternate might be less than positive, but anything is better than @ from an 1899 position.

My earlier notes on Colonial Policy:

- Development rather than neglect
- Malaya to advance well up the Kra
- SW Africa and German East Africa are in the way and German New Guinea is too close to Australia
- Form a South African state post war and have Smuts as a South African Expeditionary Force commander
- Encourage British and European migration to South Africa to shift the position of the Afrikaners
- Rhodesia and Kenya to also get sponsored migration
- West Indian colonies being nudged together
- Move towards Imperial integration in stages
- Gandhi vs Zulus
- No partition of Bengal
- Hong Kong to be expanded up past the @ New Territories, which will be ceded in perpetuity

To those, I'd add:

- Libya to be taken from the Ottomans in whatever 'short, glorious war' occurs
- The HK border expansion doesn't completely remove Chinese troubles much later down the line, but changes the complexion of the issue
- German Pacific colonies, including their islands, to be snapped up by British forces in any war, rather than left to Japan and future trouble
- Aden to be separated from British India earlier
- Kenya to serve as the basis for British East Africa (incl Uganda and Tanganyika when it is conquered)
- Engineer a 'creative' solution to the Congo Free State outrage. One course of action that comes to mind is transferring it to German control, minus Katanga...
- Separate the Chagos Islands from Mauritius as a distinct entity
- British (South) Pacific Island colonies to be progressively worked together towards a federation (Tonga, Samoa, Solomons, New Hebrides, Nauru, Cook Islands + Niue, Gilberts and Ellices and Fiji*)
- Offer to buy Easter Island and the Galapagos Islands

Great War Naval Plans
- In a war of up to 24 months, there is scope for a fair bit of an emergency programme to be funded
- Additionally, there would be a 24-36 month period postwar as budgets return to 'peacetime' levels and associated brushfires are put out
- There will be capital ships built or start building during any war, but they won't be for it, but a postwar world
- I can see Heavy and Light Armoured Cruisers/Cruisers emerging prewar, but it would be interesting for a Medium Armoured Cruiser/Medium Cruiser to come along as well. The natural split would be 6", 7.5"-8" and 9.2"-10". The lights are for the fleet and general purpose role, the mediums for trade protection and colonial duties and the heavies for carrier escort, heavy trade protection escort, colonial flagships and fleet work
- There will be a move towards ASW cruisers as well as AAW/ASuW cruisers
- The most significant aspect to come out of a war (in terms of the shape of the postwar RN) is a very strong force of modern destroyers. These would be substantively larger than the prewar 'Standards' of 1250-1600t, coming in at just over 2000t with 5" or 4.9" guns and consequently greater range and more space aboard. The 288 prewar destroyers (minus however many wartime losses) will start to leave service between 1918 (A/B) and 1928 (V/W/Y/Z), being replaced by at least 256 of the newer ships of 1915-1918, which will have 20 year service lives
- Key PDNs and DNs will be saved as museum ships, whilst plenty of others will be sold or see service as depot ships/auxiliary ships/colonial guardships/crane ships/repair ships/etc. A principle will be not to waste a single ship, but to get good value, whether it be in money or service
- There will be a much smaller, but much more powerful battlefleet 

  Ah I see what your saying now.  Thanks.

  Have doubts about the plan to increase white migration to many places in Africa as barring some unforeseen disaster for the local populations their not going to stop being the majority in most places which will set up problems for the future decades.

  in terms of great war naval plans ASW and AAW cruisers don't seem to make sense to me.  Their not really suitable for the 1st job, which is better done in the mid-century by lighter vessels while, especially with a shorter WWI there's no real scope for AAW cruisers.

  I suspect that seeking to buy Easter Island and the Galapagos Islands will cause serious tension with the US even if Ecuador is willing.

  Otherwise some good ideas here.  With the navy possibly the most important things would be getting rid of some of the dead wood and improving its technological education, which could make it a lot easier to avoid some of the OTL problems.  Plus preventing the formation of the RAF, or at least having the RN maintaining full control of its own air units, both sea and land based.

[simon darkshade]

Steve,

1.) All good.

2.) The 1901 population figures are further up this page. When there is substantial migration sustained for 35-40 years, there will definitely be some changes in the demography of South Africa, very big ones in Rhodesia and moderate ones in Kenya. In that timeframe (two generations), there will also be the offspring of those migrants and their offspring in turn. There will be some further bits and pieces of targeted European immigration programmes in due course, particularly to South Africa. Given that there won’t be a whole host of other factors at play, there won’t be a mid century issue arising.

3.) I meant as experimental types growing out from the war, not in service in it. Perhaps the heading should be Post Great War Naval Plans.

4.) The Ecuadorians were actively trying to shop the Galapagos around in the first few decades of the 20th century. Chile will be a bit harder for Easter Island, but there are potential carrots.

5.) There will definitely be scope for improved technical education. The RNAS will remain separate, but there will be an earlier RAF.

Simon

[stevep]

Aug 3, 2023 17:31:17 GMT simon darkshade said:

Steve,

1.) All good.

2.) The 1901 population figures are further up this page. When there is substantial migration sustained for 35-40 years, there will definitely be some changes in the demography of South Africa, very big ones in Rhodesia and moderate ones in Kenya. In that timeframe (two generations), there will also be the offspring of those migrants and their offspring in turn. There will be some further bits and pieces of targeted European immigration programmes in due course, particularly to South Africa. Given that there won’t be a whole host of other factors at play, there won’t be a mid century issue arising.

3.) I meant as experimental types growing out from the war, not in service in it. Perhaps the heading should be Post Great War Naval Plans.

4.) The Ecuadorians were actively trying to shop the Galapagos around in the first few decades of the 20th century. Chile will be a bit harder for Easter Island, but there are potential carrots.

5.) There will definitely be scope for improved technical education. The RNAS will remain separate, but there will be an earlier RAF.

Simon

2)  I'm thinking less about the ~1940-50 issue than later on.

3)  Ok thanks.

4)  My issue would be the reaction of Washington to any such idea.

5)  Sounds good as long as the RAF doesn't get too side-tracked by a strategic bombing only role.