AHC/WI: no Soviet intervention in Afghanistan

[Otto Kretschmer]

What would be required for the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan to not happen and what if it did not?

The communist government falls at some point in 1980. What happens next?

[stevep]

Jan 29, 2022 10:22:05 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What would be required for the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan to not happen and what if it did not?

The communist government falls at some point in 1980. What happens next?

  In Afghanistan probably a period of warlord chaos with possibly some sort of religious extremist groups emerging in response to their 'victory' over communism.

  In wilder terms Moscow suffers some loss of face from not aiding their puppet.  However it avoids the OTL war with the resulting costs, especially social I suspect with many becoming disgruntled at the continued loss of their sons/  As such the Soviet empire will life a few years longer.  The big issue would be whether it dies with a whimper as OTL or with a bang of some sort.

[lordroel]

Jan 29, 2022 10:22:05 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What would be required for the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan to not happen and what if it did not?

The communist government falls at some point in 1980. What happens next?

Well there was a fear that without the Soviet Invasion, their fears would be realized and Afghanistan would have been overtaken by an Islamic Revolution like Iran. A new Islamic government would be set up.

[gillan1220]

Afghanistan would probably be like Iraq or Lebanon where groups of different allegiances try to gain control. The Soviet Union would probably dissolve much later, maybe in 1994 or 1995.

[melanie]

gillan1220 ,stevep , in this no invasion world, don’t forget that an election is constitutionally required for the Bonn Republic in 1991. How does Kohl fare in it without the ex-GDR states and no rosy warm glow of reunification?

[stevep]

Feb 9, 2022 7:51:40 GMT melanie said:

gillan1220 ,stevep , in this no invasion world, don’t forget that an election is constitutionally required for the Bonn Republic in 1991. How does Kohl fare in it without the ex-GDR states and no rosy warm glow of reunification?

  Good point.  I don't know enough about internal politics in Germany at that time.  Mind you with a fairly big PoD in 1979 - albeit no one will really know of the impact - some bloody big butterflies could occur well before then.

[575]

Even if there isn't a Soviet intervention in Afghanistan there is still unrest in Poland during the 1980's and in the late part in East Germany. Hungary is slowly eaking itself away from Moscow and other WAPA countries are eyeing the West for a better economic situation.
Tito is dying next year and Yugoslavia is going to fall apart at some point.
The Soviet Union is going to experience some very bad harvest's during the early 1980's and have to import grain/cereals.

Gorby may not make Politbureau Secretary once Breznev and Andropov dies though at some point something has to be done about economics.

Afghanistan going Islamic Republic may make for some diverting attention from Iraq to Pakistan and the Soviet Central Asia Republics. Instead of fighting Afghans the Soviets may have to fight their own muslim populace.

Regarding 1991 West German elections as I remember Kohl wasn't that popular prior to unification which became his grand scheme. Economy wasn't all that easy going even if it was still the strongest in Western Europe. West Germany handed East Germany a huge economic subsidy and also opened the gates for peoples with German ancestry from Easter Europe making for a huge migration - 370,000 during 1989.

Kohl was working for unification though by 1989 he faced his worst elections and the unification saved the day.
New Government possibly headed by Socialdemocratic leader Oscar Lafontaine.

[melanie]

In this world, With the Cold War still going in 1990, how does that affect our friend in Baghdad, Saddam?
The 1992 USA election, too. Doubt Bubba gets the Democratic nomination with the fight against Moscow still a going concern. stevep ,

[gillan1220]

Feb 10, 2022 4:57:22 GMT melanie said:

In this world, With the Cold War still going in 1990, how does that affect our friend in Baghdad, Saddam?
The 1992 USA election, too. Doubt Bubba gets the Democratic nomination with the fight against Moscow still a going concern. stevep ,

This is a butterfly right here. Meaning there is no Gulf War so Saddam stays longer. I don't think Buba would have been nominated due to the butterflies. We may see a stronger Bush Sr. ticket for 1992.

[melanie]

I doubt Saddam invades Kuwait in this world’s 1990. And, yes, Bubba/Clinton will lose the nom to a candidate with strong foreign policy credentials and military credibility. Whereas, Bubba smoked pot and went out of his way to avoid being sent to the jungles of Vietnam.

[gillan1220]

Feb 10, 2022 5:25:09 GMT melanie said:

I doubt Saddam invades Kuwait in this world’s 1990. And, yes, Bubba/Clinton will lose the nom to a candidate with strong foreign policy credentials and military credibility. Whereas, Bubba smoked pot and went out of his way to avoid being sent to the jungles of Vietnam.

He would probably remain Arkansas governor and be saxophone player.

[575]

Feb 10, 2022 4:57:22 GMT melanie said:

In this world, With the Cold War still going in 1990, how does that affect our friend in Baghdad, Saddam?
The 1992 USA election, too. Doubt Bubba gets the Democratic nomination with the fight against Moscow still a going concern. stevep ,

He may still have his friends to the east to worry about so not able to go cherry picking to the south.

If the Soviets are fighting Islamic rebels in Central Asia they can't sell him all the weaponry though if the eastern neighbour make too much trouble the Western powers may still support him.

[575]

Feb 9, 2022 20:30:19 GMT 575 said:

Even if there isn't a Soviet intervention in Afghanistan there is still unrest in Poland during the 1980's and in the late part in East Germany. Hungary is slowly eaking itself away from Moscow and other WAPA countries are eyeing the West for a better economic situation.
Tito is dying next year and Yugoslavia is going to fall apart at some point.
The Soviet Union is going to experience some very bad harvest's during the early 1980's and have to import grain/cereals.

Gorby may not make Politbureau Secretary once Breznev and Andropov dies though at some point something has to be done about economics.

Afghanistan going Islamic Republic may make for some diverting attention from Iraq to Pakistan and the Soviet Central Asia Republics. Instead of fighting Afghans the Soviets may have to fight their own muslim populace.

Regarding 1991 West German elections as I remember Kohl wasn't that popular prior to unification which became his grand scheme. Economy wasn't all that easy going even if it was still the strongest in Western Europe. West Germany handed East Germany a huge economic subsidy and also opened the gates for peoples with German ancestry from Easter Europe making for a huge migration - 370,000 during 1989.

Kohl was working for unification though by 1989 he faced his worst elections and the unification saved the day.
New Government possibly headed by Socialdemocratic leader Oscar Lafontaine.

Did I hear anybody whispering Uyghur!

[michelvan]

With out a Soviet invasion in Afghanistan

There is no CIA operation Cyclone and no support to certain Osama ben Laden
it possible he supported by radical Saudi but what to do ?
I think Ben Laden would join effort in Libanon Civil War for Saudi fraction there.
Would be ironic if Israel or KGB special unit kill him there...

Also no support for Pakistan were USA had tension with, do incident, were mob of radical moslems storm the Pakistan US embassy...

There is realistic chance that here the WTC would celebrate it's 50 years in 2023...