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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 3, 2022 18:29:41 GMT
Belarus moves from 2021 to August 1 1914 when Germany declared war on Russia. No Covid. What does Lukashenko do in this situation? Belarussian armed forcee are ok for 2021 and OP for 1914 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_BelarusLukashenko has Russian Empire to all sides and Germany close to the west. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 3, 2022 18:38:13 GMT
Belarus moves from 2021 to August 1 1914 when Germany declared war on Russia. No Covid. What does Lukashenko do in this situation? Belarussian armed forcee are ok for 2021 and OP for 1914 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_BelarusLukashenko has Russian Empire to all sides and Germany close to the west. Looking at this map, Belarus can easly slow the Germans, after that, depends on what Lukashenko long terms plans are.  |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Feb 3, 2022 18:57:07 GMT
Wonder if Lukashenko will be okay sharing the spotlight with Stalin, though?
At the very least, I imagine he'd want semi-autonomous status for Belarus. Not to mention guarantees that he and his cronies won't be turn on and shot down the line, as came all too habitually to the Man of Steel.
Edit
Never mind. Misread "1914" as "1941", so I guess that warrants swapping Stalin out for Nicholas II.
Same principle might apply, though, depending on how well (or poorly) received the "Belarusian upstarts" are.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 3, 2022 19:07:11 GMT
Wonder if Lukashenko will be okay sharing the spotlight with Stalin, though? At the very least, I imagine he'd want semi-autonomous status for Belarus. Not to mention guarantees that he and his cronies won't be turn on and shot down the line, as came all too habitually to the Man of Steel. EditNever mind. Misread "1914" as "1941", so I guess that warrants swapping Stalin out for Nicholas II. Same principle might apply, though, depending on how well (or poorly) received the "Belarusian upstarts" are. Germany is a priority of course. The best thing for Lukashenko IMO is to somehow force Nicholas II to adopt a new constitution so that Lukashenko becomes the Prime Minister while Nicholas II is relegated to being a ceremonial figurehead like in Japan. There is nothing that Russia can do to Belarus. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 3, 2022 19:11:33 GMT
The best thing for Lukashenko IMO is to somehow force Nicholas II to adopt a new constitution so that Lukashenko becomes the Prome Minister while Nicholas II is relegated to being a ceremonial figurehead like im Japan. Think that is the best option, a revolution in Russia is the last thing Lukashenko needs. |
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 3, 2022 19:15:40 GMT
The best thing for Lukashenko IMO is to somehow force Nicholas II to adopt a new constitution so that Lukashenko becomes the Prome Minister while Nicholas II is relegated to being a ceremonial figurehead like im Japan. Think that is the best option, a revolution in Russia is the last thing Lukashenko needs. yep. He's the ruler of a region that has 100+ years of tech advantage, a higher GDP thsn the rest of Russia and is now a hero who has single handely won ww1 for Russia and the world. People are flocking by 100,000s to see his wondrous land. No way he's going to sit down and accept being ruled by anybody else |
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 3, 2022 19:22:29 GMT
Later Russia becomed the indisputed hegemon of the world. Lukashenko and his descendants play a Shogun like role in Russia.
Russia likely sends a man into space no later than 1930s and the world is at 2022 technological level in 1950
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 4, 2022 12:48:04 GMT
This all assumes he stays in power after the Germans are defeated. That could well concentrate public opinion in at least not opposing him. However once that's out of the way you have a deeply unpopular leader in Belarus with minimal/no outside support and most people from 1914 having reasons to oppose him as well. How much is Lukashenko's military and infrastructure totally independent of external supplies and equipment. After all while the 1914 world can supply raw materials such as food, coal and iron ore say its not a good source for electronics, plastics or even oil probably given the limited production in 1914 and the lack of a way to ship it to Minsk.
I also don't see an idiotic autocratic like Nicholas II accepting any idea of being what he would see as a puppet and while the Belarus forces can defeat the Germans in the short term - although their initial appearance will screw over the Russian supply lines and forces in places like Poland - I can't see him having the power to overrun most of European Russia. If he was an actually popular democratic leader he could appeal to many of the Russian population and offer reform but while he can try that a lot of people from inside his own country are going to contradict that. Nicholas might make some sort of deal while Germany is a clear threat but be intent on breaking/reversing it once the immediate crisis was over - just like he backpedaled on the Duma he was forced to allow after the 1905 revolution.
Plus how would Lukashenko rule Russia? Its facilities for control are in St Petersburg but can he, even with forces leave Minsk and all its technology and comforts? Or does he send a subordinate to Sp Petersburg and give instructions to him. Either way there is the danger of the person left in charge in Minsk or being sent to St Petersburg being bribed into betraying him or in the former case possibly thinking he can take over in Belarus and leave Lukashenko isolated.
There will definitely be huge butterflies and a lot of technological advancement while the 1914 world is going to be thrown into disorder by what they hear about the 'future'.
One thing Lukashenko might try is doing a deal with Germany. Its not initially bordering him so he could end up with a larger state, with many down-timers in it who could be less unhappy with autocratic rule and Germany, as a very advanced state by 1914 standards might be better able to help supply some of the things Belarus needed. This might have less tensions as Germany is more likely to accept Belarus as an ally as opposed to Russia which sees Belarus as a breakaway state.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 4, 2022 14:57:46 GMT
He can always relocate capital to Minsk.
Regardless of whether Luka stays or not, there is IMO no wau for Belarus not to become the political capital of Russia.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 4, 2022 15:44:20 GMT
Belarus would not doubt be the most powerful country in Europe in terms of military power. Too bad the country is landlocked so even 1914 United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, the United States, and Japan has a greater economic reach.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 4, 2022 16:14:30 GMT
Belarus would not doubt be the most powerful country in Europe in terms of military power. Too bad the country is landlocked so even 1914 United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, the United States, and Japan has a greater economic reach. East Prussia is ripe for capture. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 4, 2022 16:40:23 GMT
Belarus would not doubt be the most powerful country in Europe in terms of military power. Too bad the country is landlocked so even 1914 United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, the United States, and Japan has a greater economic reach. East Prussia is ripe for capture. What is the military ORBAT of Belarus? I know they have a lot of tanks and any air attacks on them would be thwarted by their robust SAM sites. |
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Feb 4, 2022 16:42:54 GMT
East Prussia is ripe for capture. What is the military ORBAT of Belarus? I know they have a lot of tanks and any air attacks on them would be thwarted by their robust SAM sites. Wiki article (in the OP) has the ORBAT. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 4, 2022 16:43:57 GMT
East Prussia is ripe for capture. What is the military ORBAT of Belarus? I know they have a lot of tanks and any air attacks on them would be thwarted by their robust SAM sites. in 1914 i doubt Belarus has to worry about any air attack. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Feb 4, 2022 16:48:08 GMT
Wiki article (in the OP) has the ORBAT. All those tanks, IFVs, and APCs would definitely push the Central Powers back. in 1914 i doubt Belarus has to worry about any air attack. Definitely. The MiGs and Sukhois would swat anything primitive. If not them, then maybe the Buk, Tor, S-75s, S-300s, and S-400s that Belarus operates. |
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