The ISOT thread

[Otto Kretschmer]

2020 Iran ISOT to 1946. What's the best strategy for Iran to increase it's influence in the world?

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2023 22:21:59 GMT @kapesq said:

The territory held by Chiang Kai-shek's government and forces and the territory held by *genuinely* KMT-allied warlords and militias (so not Mao et al) transported from the time of noon in Nanking on May 1st 1935 to noon in Nanking on May 1st 1987.

So these KMT get transported to the future?

It's 1987 and the PRC is enjoying investment from the West during its opening-up to the world. How would the DT KMT react to know that they were eventually pushed out from the mainland in 1949?

The PLA would no doubt come to Nanking (Nanjing) to crush this "sudden" appearance of DT KMT.

[gillan1220]

Dec 16, 2023 0:37:25 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

1950 PRC ISOT to 1937.

Does it defeat the Japanese more easily? The PLA of 1950 has more combat experience than the nationalist army of 1937(. It can also count on much more Soviet help.

Yes, the PRC of 1950 can exact more casualties to the DT IJA.

1950 PRC was better armed and organized. It also has tons of military hardware captured from the Japanese or American and British Lend-Lease supplies that were originally donated to the KMT.

Dec 16, 2023 14:15:24 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

2019 Poland ISOT to 1946.

Does Poland manage to halt the Soviets and free the rest of the Eastern Bloc?

Initially, yes. The Leopard 2 and the F-16 can destroy anything the downtime Red Army has to offer.

The problem is once munitions and parts for the UT vehicles runs out.

[gillan1220]

Dec 18, 2023 5:24:27 GMT @kapesq said:

Saddam's Iraq: from 1984 to 2014 when ISIS rose?

To add a little sugar to the situation and balance a bad regime with a good one: progressive/"wet" Liberal Party of Australia PM John Gorton's Australia from the day he is sworn in as PM in January 1968 also to the moment ISIS rises into prominence in 2014.

Airspace, land, waterways or surrounding waters up to the three-mile nautical limit... everything in those two countries comes for the ride.

Meanwhile the UT world: Saddam has been revived from the dead!

Geopolitical confusion.

DT Saddam would be confused and shocked how his armies were defeated in 1991, overthrown in 2003, and hanged as a war criminal in 2006.

Now I wonder how Obama and the rest of the West would deal with a revived Saddam and his Army appearing out of nowhere. Would Obama try to at least make Saddam an "ally" against ISIS?

Dec 18, 2023 12:07:13 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

2020 Iran ISOT to 1946. What's the best strategy for Iran to increase it's influence in the world?

Iran would dominate the Middle East especially with the oil. I wonder how UT Iran would negotiate for the creation of Israel, considering Israel is its enemy. How would it try to sway the UN about the Jewish homeland?

[Otto Kretschmer]

2020 Switzerland to 1913

Does ww1 still break out?

[Deleted]

French Africa and Italian Africa from midday Cairo standard time January 20, 1937 to the same moment on January 20, 1973?

[stevep]

Dec 18, 2023 23:25:30 GMT @kapesq said:

French Africa and Italian Africa from midday Cairo standard time January 20, 1937 to the same moment on January 20, 1973?

  Well that's going to cause some chaos with a large chunk of northern and NE Africa suddenly moved back to pre-WWII period, with a significant drop in population and infrastructure in the affected areas.  I can't see either France or Italy being interested in trying to 'regain' their colonies, although its going to be awkward with the colonists in Algeria and Italian Africa suddenly finding themselves lacking support from the 'home' nation.  Its going to be difficult for both France and Italy to incorporate the down time colonial populations in their own countries, possibly especially so the Italians as there would be a lot of fascists forces in their colonies.

  Whether it will distract from and hence avoid the Yom Kippur War and hence the 1st oil shock I don't know but possibly Egypt gets distracted 'liberating' say Italian Libya.  However I think Sadat would be more interested in restoring Egyptian prestige and influence by his planned attack on Israel to be drawn too much into other activities. 

  It would mean that oil production in Libya, plus any in Algeria at this point? would be lost and also the monarchy restored in Libya while Ethiopia is going to see things fairly drastically changed.  Its an occupied state but with the colonials forces almost certainly going to be forced to withdraw fairly quickly who takes over as Emperor Haile Selassie has been removed unless he happens to be out of the country at this point.  However it could mean that Ethiopia avoids the murderous Derg regime.

[gillan1220]

Dec 19, 2023 0:04:35 GMT stevep said:

Dec 18, 2023 23:25:30 GMT @kapesq said:

French Africa and Italian Africa from midday Cairo standard time January 20, 1937 to the same moment on January 20, 1973?

  Well that's going to cause some chaos with a large chunk of northern and NE Africa suddenly moved back to pre-WWII period, with a significant drop in population and infrastructure in the affected areas.  I can't see either France or Italy being interested in trying to 'regain' their colonies, although its going to be awkward with the colonists in Algeria and Italian Africa suddenly finding themselves lacking support from the 'home' nation.  Its going to be difficult for both France and Italy to incorporate the down time colonial populations in their own countries, possibly especially so the Italians as there would be a lot of fascists forces in their colonies.

  Whether it will distract from and hence avoid the Yom Kippur War and hence the 1st oil shock I don't know but possibly Egypt gets distracted 'liberating' say Italian Libya.  However I think Sadat would be more interested in restoring Egyptian prestige and influence by his planned attack on Israel to be drawn too much into other activities. 

  It would mean that oil production in Libya, plus any in Algeria at this point? would be lost and also the monarchy restored in Libya while Ethiopia is going to see things fairly drastically changed.  Its an occupied state but with the colonials forces almost certainly going to be forced to withdraw fairly quickly who takes over as Emperor Haile Selassie has been removed unless he happens to be out of the country at this point.  However it could mean that Ethiopia avoids the murderous Derg regime.

Suddenly, all the downtime World Powers would want to get their hands on the AK-47, T-54, and MiG-21 fighter jets.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2023 0:50:39 GMT gillan1220 said:

Dec 19, 2023 0:04:35 GMT stevep said:

  Well that's going to cause some chaos with a large chunk of northern and NE Africa suddenly moved back to pre-WWII period, with a significant drop in population and infrastructure in the affected areas.  I can't see either France or Italy being interested in trying to 'regain' their colonies, although its going to be awkward with the colonists in Algeria and Italian Africa suddenly finding themselves lacking support from the 'home' nation.  Its going to be difficult for both France and Italy to incorporate the down time colonial populations in their own countries, possibly especially so the Italians as there would be a lot of fascists forces in their colonies.

  Whether it will distract from and hence avoid the Yom Kippur War and hence the 1st oil shock I don't know but possibly Egypt gets distracted 'liberating' say Italian Libya.  However I think Sadat would be more interested in restoring Egyptian prestige and influence by his planned attack on Israel to be drawn too much into other activities. 

  It would mean that oil production in Libya, plus any in Algeria at this point? would be lost and also the monarchy restored in Libya while Ethiopia is going to see things fairly drastically changed.  Its an occupied state but with the colonials forces almost certainly going to be forced to withdraw fairly quickly who takes over as Emperor Haile Selassie has been removed unless he happens to be out of the country at this point.  However it could mean that Ethiopia avoids the murderous Derg regime.

I chose 1/20/73 as the arrival as that is the date Nixon was sworn in for his second term. Somehow i think a huge chunk of colonized Africa arriving from 30+ years earlier will push the new Watergate scandal from a lot of western newspapers, TV and radio's minds. Not to mention, Washington and Wall Street.

[gillan1220]

Dec 19, 2023 1:29:04 GMT @kapesq said:

Dec 19, 2023 0:50:39 GMT gillan1220 said:

I chose 1/20/73 as the arrival as that is the date Nixon was sworn in for his second term. Somehow i think a huge chunk of colonized Africa arriving from 30+ years earlier will push the new Watergate scandal from a lot of western newspapers, TV and radio's minds. Not to mention, Washington and Wall Street.

Oh yes definitely. It would be the biggest headlines to the point Vietnam and Yom Kippur would be sidelined.

[Deleted]

Taiwan and Taiwan-ese controlled islands 23:59:00 hours Taipei time 12/31/1999 to 23:59:00 hours Taipei time 12/31/1969. So, they arrive when the mainland is gripped by the cultural revolution.
stevep, gillan1220, ?

[575]

Dec 19, 2023 0:04:35 GMT stevep said:

Dec 18, 2023 23:25:30 GMT @kapesq said:

French Africa and Italian Africa from midday Cairo standard time January 20, 1937 to the same moment on January 20, 1973?

  Well that's going to cause some chaos with a large chunk of northern and NE Africa suddenly moved back to pre-WWII period, with a significant drop in population and infrastructure in the affected areas.  I can't see either France or Italy being interested in trying to 'regain' their colonies, although its going to be awkward with the colonists in Algeria and Italian Africa suddenly finding themselves lacking support from the 'home' nation.  Its going to be difficult for both France and Italy to incorporate the down time colonial populations in their own countries, possibly especially so the Italians as there would be a lot of fascists forces in their colonies.

  Whether it will distract from and hence avoid the Yom Kippur War and hence the 1st oil shock I don't know but possibly Egypt gets distracted 'liberating' say Italian Libya.  However I think Sadat would be more interested in restoring Egyptian prestige and influence by his planned attack on Israel to be drawn too much into other activities. 

  It would mean that oil production in Libya, plus any in Algeria at this point? would be lost and also the monarchy restored in Libya while Ethiopia is going to see things fairly drastically changed.  Its an occupied state but with the colonials forces almost certainly going to be forced to withdraw fairly quickly who takes over as Emperor Haile Selassie has been removed unless he happens to be out of the country at this point.  However it could mean that Ethiopia avoids the murderous Derg regime.

The thing is both France and Italy will know about the oil under the sand; Yom Kippur War haven't happened so they don't know about rising oil prices.

However in the case of both France and Italy the extracting companies in Algeria and Libya is French and Italian. That would I expect make both countries more reliant on US or Mid-Eastern Oil which I don't see either wanting - especially France.

Neigther nation may want to assume control of their former Colonies but I could see some at least US and no less Eastern Bloch pressure for them to end colonialism and pull out their forces. Mostly so Ethiopia but also Libya and the French NA diaspora will want their homelands independent - at least vocally even if induced by the Eastern Bloch.

The Arab League have lost members so may have another point of view than just Israel at the moment - pressuring France and Italy to DO something about their colonies. This may of course also be limited to rethoric at UN but remember all the protesters in the West will now have a new cause.. Its some can of worms.

UN security council members of 1973:

But there is also the Organization of African Unity to complain about French and Italian colonies as well as the many UN delegates from those Independent nations coming from those Colonies.

There will certainly be proposed resolutions of demand of both Imperial Colonist powers to evacuate their repressive armed forces from those nations and a call for immediate liberation of Ethiopia by the Genocidal Italian occupation. With Soviet Union and China of course veto'ing everything not to their liking in the Security Council.

In Italy requested to end its colonial menace there will be a lot of critique from Communist's and Red Brigades and right wing parties and fascists/Royalists. With their penchant for unstable govenment at the time (also) Italy may face a severe internal crisis.

De-colonizing the former Italian colonies may end up a messy UN - Arab League - OAU operation.

France will probably want to negotiate the various African Nations representatives to get their deal on Algerian Oil respected and then demobilize and de-colonize their former African Colonies. They will of course also have their internal disturbancies but certainly not on the Italian level.

I don't really see the Yom Kippur War being pulled off by the Arab's in this scenario. They will be much too occupied.

Haile Selassie was in exile probably in Britain 20 January 1937 which will also complicate matters as he by 1973 still was Emperor of Ethiopia only deposed 1974 by military coup.

[stevep]

Dec 19, 2023 1:29:04 GMT @kapesq said:

Dec 19, 2023 0:50:39 GMT gillan1220 said:

I chose 1/20/73 as the arrival as that is the date Nixon was sworn in for his second term. Somehow i think a huge chunk of colonized Africa arriving from 30+ years earlier will push the new Watergate scandal from a lot of western newspapers, TV and radio's minds. Not to mention, Washington and Wall Street.

  Ah when I checked the year on wiki I noticed this date but didn't consider the possible impact of Nixon's actions escaping discovery.

[stevep]

Dec 19, 2023 11:03:32 GMT 575 said:

Dec 19, 2023 0:04:35 GMT stevep said:

  Well that's going to cause some chaos with a large chunk of northern and NE Africa suddenly moved back to pre-WWII period, with a significant drop in population and infrastructure in the affected areas.  I can't see either France or Italy being interested in trying to 'regain' their colonies, although its going to be awkward with the colonists in Algeria and Italian Africa suddenly finding themselves lacking support from the 'home' nation.  Its going to be difficult for both France and Italy to incorporate the down time colonial populations in their own countries, possibly especially so the Italians as there would be a lot of fascists forces in their colonies.

  Whether it will distract from and hence avoid the Yom Kippur War and hence the 1st oil shock I don't know but possibly Egypt gets distracted 'liberating' say Italian Libya.  However I think Sadat would be more interested in restoring Egyptian prestige and influence by his planned attack on Israel to be drawn too much into other activities. 

  It would mean that oil production in Libya, plus any in Algeria at this point? would be lost and also the monarchy restored in Libya while Ethiopia is going to see things fairly drastically changed.  Its an occupied state but with the colonials forces almost certainly going to be forced to withdraw fairly quickly who takes over as Emperor Haile Selassie has been removed unless he happens to be out of the country at this point.  However it could mean that Ethiopia avoids the murderous Derg regime.

The thing is both France and Italy will know about the oil under the sand; Yom Kippur War haven't happened so they don't know about rising oil prices.

However in the case of both France and Italy the extracting companies in Algeria and Libya is French and Italian. That would I expect make both countries more reliant on US or Mid-Eastern Oil which I don't see either wanting - especially France.

Neigther nation may want to assume control of their former Colonies but I could see some at least US and no less Eastern Bloch pressure for them to end colonialism and pull out their forces. Mostly so Ethiopia but also Libya and the French NA diaspora will want their homelands independent - at least vocally even if induced by the Eastern Bloch.

The Arab League have lost members so may have another point of view than just Israel at the moment - pressuring France and Italy to DO something about their colonies. This may of course also be limited to rethoric at UN but remember all the protesters in the West will now have a new cause.. Its some can of worms.

UN security council members of 1973:

But there is also the Organization of African Unity to complain about French and Italian colonies as well as the many UN delegates from those Independent nations coming from those Colonies.

There will certainly be proposed resolutions of demand of both Imperial Colonist powers to evacuate their repressive armed forces from those nations and a call for immediate liberation of Ethiopia by the Genocidal Italian occupation. With Soviet Union and China of course veto'ing everything not to their liking in the Security Council.

In Italy requested to end its colonial menace there will be a lot of critique from Communist's and Red Brigades and right wing parties and fascists/Royalists. With their penchant for unstable govenment at the time (also) Italy may face a severe internal crisis.

De-colonizing the former Italian colonies may end up a messy UN - Arab League - OAU operation.

France will probably want to negotiate the various African Nations representatives to get their deal on Algerian Oil respected and then demobilize and de-colonize their former African Colonies. They will of course also have their internal disturbancies but certainly not on the Italian level.

I don't really see the Yom Kippur War being pulled off by the Arab's in this scenario. They will be much too occupied.

Haile Selassie was in exile probably in Britain 20 January 1937 which will also complicate matters as he by 1973 still was Emperor of Ethiopia only deposed 1974 by military coup.

  In general agreement but not sure if Yom Kippur would be avoided as with the world and especially the west in political turmoil both the Arab world and their Soviet bloc will think their on a roll. 

  Good point that France and Italy in 1973 knew about oil reserves and had an interest in their development so will be interesting in keeping that link with the 'new' downtime colonies and are likely to accept decolonization in return for getting that.  Both will have trouble absorbing the white down-timers into the 1973 world but it will be worse in Italy and as you say their government wasn't very stable in this period. 

  I think Haile Selassie is basically gone.  The exiled young emperor of 1937 is lost because Britain is in 1973 and similarly the elderly, shortly to be deposed emperor isn't there because its occupied 1937 Ethiopia.  There might be a scramble to find a new emperor depending on what family members are available or there could be a desire from the 1973 world for a republic.

[gillan1220]

Dec 19, 2023 5:40:36 GMT @kapesq said:

Taiwan and Taiwan-ese controlled islands 23:59:00 hours Taipei time 12/31/1999 to 23:59:00 hours Taipei time 12/31/1969. So, they arrive when the mainland is gripped by the cultural revolution.
stevep, gillan1220, ?

Uptime Taiwan would be technologically-superior but it can't go further into the mainland. Moreover, China already has nuclear weapons that could be used on a Taiwanese landing.

However, the UT ROC Navy and ROC Air Force would definitely sweep the DT PLA.