AHC/WI: no Second Sino Japanese War

[Otto Kretschmer]

Make the Japanese not invade China in 1937 and either limit their presence to Manchuria or prevent it's annexation as well.

[gillan1220]

If no Second Sino-Japanese War, then WWII in the Pacific is significantly delayed. WWII would be focused on Europe, that is if it becomes one. It would probably be known as the Phony War.

[raharris1973]

Feb 10, 2022 16:32:39 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Make the Japanese not invade China in 1937 and either limit their presence to Manchuria

A couple things could happen -

Japan could sit on Manchuria and defend and develop its conquered puppet state, with the world and China refusing to recognize it, but being unable to do much about it. The simplest, most straightforward projection, is that somehow, Japan has managed to corral rogue actors in the Army and kept them satisfied with assignments in Manchukuo and generous funding and has been able to prevent picking lower level officers from starting a bigger war with China or the USSR.

WWII unfolds in Europe like it did. Japan stands aside as interested observer, waiting to potentially move on the USSR if it collapses. That doesn't happen so Japan remains neutral. With US Lend-Lease, at a minimum, the British Empire and USSR contain Hitler back to continental Europe and push him back from the USSR. Possibly, US aid convoys, and naval intervention in the Atlantic against U-Boats are so obnoxious and irritating to Hitler that he decides he has nothing to lose by declaring war on the USA by some point in 1942, and the USA gets into the war in Europe.

After the Western Allies and Soviets crush the USSR,oops, Nazi Germany, Japan (w/ its empire and Manchukuo) is a third, "swing" bloc in the Cold War, smaller than the other two (but more serious navally than the USSR), and more significant than China.

Alternatively - This Japan, unsucked into China, could be tempted to join the attack on the Soviet Union in the 3-4 months after the beginning of Barbarossa, so by autumn 1941. This is painful to the USSR and cuts off the Pacific Lend-Lease route, but aside from cutting that Lend-Lease, it should not lead the Soviets into fatal panic or diversion, because they will likely strictly prioritize the front against Germany and trade space for time in the Far East if they must, and not fatally weaken their anti-German front to reinforce the Far East (because that would be dumb and unnecessary, so they wouldn't do it).

The opportunistic Japanese attack on the USSR would upset UK and US calculations relying on Soviet assistance to defeat Hitler, so they would be outraged, and, begin economic warfare against Japan through embargoes.

This economic warfare would starve Japan of fuel and other necessary raw materials even as the Japanese discover they've underestimated the Soviets and face much higher than expected losses.

The Japanese may need to pause operations in the north and negotiate a cease fire or armistice to restore trade, or pause operations in the north and launch new operations to the south to seize oil and other resources there, against western opponents who will now be more alert and reinforced.

Alternatively to this alternative, -

the progress of the European war might tempt Japanese involvement and expansionism even before Barbarossa. Despite not needing Indochina to blockade China, the fall of Metropolitan France, assuming it happens, could make Indochina appear to be a ripe target for occupation and exploitation in Tokyo in late 1940. The threat that poses to the British Empire, which the US is relying on to fight Hitler, could cause US embargoes, which could encourage a Japanese strike on all the western powers in the Far East.

[stevep]

Sept 15, 2022 3:29:30 GMT raharris1973 said:

Feb 10, 2022 16:32:39 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Make the Japanese not invade China in 1937 and either limit their presence to Manchuria

A couple things could happen -

Japan could sit on Manchuria and defend and develop its conquered puppet state, with the world and China refusing to recognize it, but being unable to do much about it. The simplest, most straightforward projection, is that somehow, Japan has managed to corral rogue actors in the Army and kept them satisfied with assignments in Manchukuo and generous funding and has been able to prevent picking lower level officers from starting a bigger war with China or the USSR.

WWII unfolds in Europe like it did. Japan stands aside as interested observer, waiting to potentially move on the USSR if it collapses. That doesn't happen so Japan remains neutral. With US Lend-Lease, at a minimum, the British Empire and USSR contain Hitler back to continental Europe and push him back from the USSR. Possibly, US aid convoys, and naval intervention in the Atlantic against U-Boats are so obnoxious and irritating to Hitler that he decides he has nothing to lose by declaring war on the USA by some point in 1942, and the USA gets into the war in Europe.

After the Western Allies and Soviets crush the USSR, Japan (w/ its empire and Manchukuo) is a third, "swing" bloc in the Cold War, smaller than the other two (but more serious navally than the USSR), and more significant than China.

Alternatively - This Japan, unsucked into China, could be tempted to join the attack on the Soviet Union in the 3-4 months after the beginning of Barbarossa, so by autumn 1941. This is painful to the USSR and cuts off the Pacific Lend-Lease route, but aside from cutting that Lend-Lease, it should not lead the Soviets into fatal panic or diversion, because they will likely strictly prioritize the front against Germany and trade space for time in the Far East if they must, and not fatally weaken their anti-German front to reinforce the Far East (because that would be dumb and unnecessary, so they wouldn't do it).

The opportunistic Japanese attack on the USSR would upset UK and US calculations relying on Soviet assistance to defeat Hitler, so they would be outraged, and, begin economic warfare against Japan through embargoes.

This economic warfare would starve Japan of fuel and other necessary raw materials even as the Japanese discover they've underestimated the Soviets and face much higher than expected losses.

The Japanese may need to pause operations in the north and negotiate a cease fire or armistice to restore trade, or pause operations in the north and launch new operations to the south to seize oil and other resources there, against western opponents who will now be more alert and reinforced.

Alternatively to this alternative, -

the progress of the European war might tempt Japanese involvement and expansionism even before Barbarossa. Despite not needing Indochina to blockade China, the fall of Metropolitan France, assuming it happens, could make Indochina appear to be a ripe target for occupation and exploitation in Tokyo in late 1940. The threat that poses to the British Empire, which the US is relying on to fight Hitler, could cause US embargoes, which could encourage a Japanese strike on all the western powers in the Far East.

  Good summary of some of the alternatives.  A lot could happen depending on the circumstances. 

  One wild-card with the 2nd option is that Stalin would call on Britain to join the war against Japan once the latter attacks him and Churchill might be rash enough to do it.  Despite a lack of suitable bases in the region, which would make occupation of Thailand and attacks on Malaya and Burma markedly more difficult this could be very bad for the western powers.

[raharris1973]

Sept 15, 2022 10:01:53 GMT stevep said:

Sept 15, 2022 3:29:30 GMT raharris1973 said:

A couple things could happen -

Japan could sit on Manchuria and defend and develop its conquered puppet state, with the world and China refusing to recognize it, but being unable to do much about it. The simplest, most straightforward projection, is that somehow, Japan has managed to corral rogue actors in the Army and kept them satisfied with assignments in Manchukuo and generous funding and has been able to prevent picking lower level officers from starting a bigger war with China or the USSR.

WWII unfolds in Europe like it did. Japan stands aside as interested observer, waiting to potentially move on the USSR if it collapses. That doesn't happen so Japan remains neutral. With US Lend-Lease, at a minimum, the British Empire and USSR contain Hitler back to continental Europe and push him back from the USSR. Possibly, US aid convoys, and naval intervention in the Atlantic against U-Boats are so obnoxious and irritating to Hitler that he decides he has nothing to lose by declaring war on the USA by some point in 1942, and the USA gets into the war in Europe.

After the Western Allies and Soviets crush the USSR, Japan (w/ its empire and Manchukuo) is a third, "swing" bloc in the Cold War, smaller than the other two (but more serious navally than the USSR), and more significant than China.

Alternatively - This Japan, unsucked into China, could be tempted to join the attack on the Soviet Union in the 3-4 months after the beginning of Barbarossa, so by autumn 1941. This is painful to the USSR and cuts off the Pacific Lend-Lease route, but aside from cutting that Lend-Lease, it should not lead the Soviets into fatal panic or diversion, because they will likely strictly prioritize the front against Germany and trade space for time in the Far East if they must, and not fatally weaken their anti-German front to reinforce the Far East (because that would be dumb and unnecessary, so they wouldn't do it).

The opportunistic Japanese attack on the USSR would upset UK and US calculations relying on Soviet assistance to defeat Hitler, so they would be outraged, and, begin economic warfare against Japan through embargoes.

This economic warfare would starve Japan of fuel and other necessary raw materials even as the Japanese discover they've underestimated the Soviets and face much higher than expected losses.

The Japanese may need to pause operations in the north and negotiate a cease fire or armistice to restore trade, or pause operations in the north and launch new operations to the south to seize oil and other resources there, against western opponents who will now be more alert and reinforced.

Alternatively to this alternative, -

the progress of the European war might tempt Japanese involvement and expansionism even before Barbarossa. Despite not needing Indochina to blockade China, the fall of Metropolitan France, assuming it happens, could make Indochina appear to be a ripe target for occupation and exploitation in Tokyo in late 1940. The threat that poses to the British Empire, which the US is relying on to fight Hitler, could cause US embargoes, which could encourage a Japanese strike on all the western powers in the Far East.

  Good summary of some of the alternatives.  A lot could happen depending on the circumstances. 

  One wild-card with the 2nd option is that Stalin would call on Britain to join the war against Japan once the latter attacks him and Churchill might be rash enough to do it.  Despite a lack of suitable bases in the region, which would make occupation of Thailand and attacks on Malaya and Burma markedly more difficult this could be very bad for the western powers.

It would be interesting if Churchill were that rash, and started, air and naval sorties against the Japanese to distract and harass them?  I guess starting in the South China Sea?

I wonder if Churchill would try to maximize the chances of sucking in China or the USA by launching raids using forces that dart out of British concession territories in China against Japanese ships/bases in the Yellow Sea, and raids from Hong Kong against Taiwan, and other raids against the mandate islands near where American possessions are.

[gillan1220]

Sept 15, 2022 3:29:30 GMT raharris1973 said:

After the Western Allies and Soviets crush the USSR,oops, Nazi Germany, Japan (w/ its empire and Manchukuo) is a third, "swing" bloc in the Cold War, smaller than the other two (but more serious navally than the USSR), and more significant than China.

This presents an interesting alternate Cold War scenario. The question is how long will the Japanese bloc survive? A militaristic Japan is bound to collapse due to the American-led embargo which meant Tokyo would have no more oil to supply their war machines.

I based this on the Anglo/American-Nazi War scenario where Nazi Germany eventually collapses in the 1960s since its ideology is too murderous and requires war and expansion to keep the economy going. That along with a Nazi Civil War is one of the reasons why the Reich would eventually collapse.

[stevep]

Sept 15, 2022 17:38:09 GMT gillan1220 said:

Sept 15, 2022 3:29:30 GMT raharris1973 said:

After the Western Allies and Soviets crush the USSR,oops, Nazi Germany, Japan (w/ its empire and Manchukuo) is a third, "swing" bloc in the Cold War, smaller than the other two (but more serious navally than the USSR), and more significant than China.

This presents an interesting alternate Cold War scenario. The question is how long will the Japanese bloc survive? A militaristic Japan is bound to collapse due to the American-led embargo which meant Tokyo would have no more oil to supply their war machines.

I based this on the Anglo/American-Nazi War scenario where Nazi Germany eventually collapses in the 1960s since its ideology is too murderous and requires war and expansion to keep the economy going. That along with a Nazi Civil War is one of the reasons why the Reich would eventually collapse.

  I think in this option Japan hasn't attacked anyone so there wouldn't be such an embargo.  Especially not once the Soviets become the new big threat and hence a Japanese empire including Manchuria would be seen as a regional counter to the Soviets and possibly also as a buffer for blocking the spread of communism to China.  [Going to be interesting in such a scenario if the KMT can crush the CCP and then possibly get their act together and not being so crippled by corruption and infighting].

[gillan1220]

Sept 15, 2022 18:44:56 GMT stevep said:

Sept 15, 2022 17:38:09 GMT gillan1220 said:

This presents an interesting alternate Cold War scenario. The question is how long will the Japanese bloc survive? A militaristic Japan is bound to collapse due to the American-led embargo which meant Tokyo would have no more oil to supply their war machines.

I based this on the Anglo/American-Nazi War scenario where Nazi Germany eventually collapses in the 1960s since its ideology is too murderous and requires war and expansion to keep the economy going. That along with a Nazi Civil War is one of the reasons why the Reich would eventually collapse.

  I think in this option Japan hasn't attacked anyone so there wouldn't be such an embargo.  Especially not once the Soviets become the new big threat and hence a Japanese empire including Manchuria would be seen as a regional counter to the Soviets and possibly also as a buffer for blocking the spread of communism to China.  [Going to be interesting in such a scenario if the KMT can crush the CCP and then possibly get their act together and not being so crippled by corruption and infighting].

This presents another interesting butterfly. Say Japan is the third bloc of this alternate Cold War and somehow the KMT manages to crush the CCP, what would become of China here? Would it be a fourth bloc or would it align with the West to counter the USSR? 

[TheRomanSlayer]

Most likely that China would side with the Allies against the USSR. Although there is also one thing that have to be stressed: without the Second Sino-Japanese War, you’d have more Asian colonies be willing to side with Japan against their colonial masters, as the lack of Japanese atrocities would make the Japanese Empire more appealing to the rest of Asia. At best, the newly recognized nations in SE Asia would be similar to Thailand during OTL WWII.

Perhaps the GEACPS would become a thing, albeit a more genuine bloc than an oversized Shogunate with the puppet states basically reduced to just that, puppets.

[gillan1220]

Sept 16, 2022 1:37:46 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Most likely that China would side with the Allies against the USSR. Although there is also one thing that have to be stressed: without the Second Sino-Japanese War, you’d have more Asian colonies be willing to side with Japan against their colonial masters, as the lack of Japanese atrocities would make the Japanese Empire more appealing to the rest of Asia. At best, the newly recognized nations in SE Asia would be similar to Thailand during OTL WWII.

Perhaps the GEACPS would become a thing, albeit a more genuine bloc than an oversized Shogunate with the puppet states basically reduced to just that, puppets.

As memory serves, Stalin had a friendly ties with the KMT because he distrusted Mao Zedong. Plus, it would benefit the Soviet Union to have an autocratic capitalist state because of trade. Stalin would definitely want his cut.

The GEACPS would be an economic bloc just like ASEAN today, but the extent would probably be limited rather that its height in 1942-43.

[stevep]

Sept 16, 2022 1:37:46 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Most likely that China would side with the Allies against the USSR. Although there is also one thing that have to be stressed: without the Second Sino-Japanese War, you’d have more Asian colonies be willing to side with Japan against their colonial masters, as the lack of Japanese atrocities would make the Japanese Empire more appealing to the rest of Asia. At best, the newly recognized nations in SE Asia would be similar to Thailand during OTL WWII.

Perhaps the GEACPS would become a thing, albeit a more genuine bloc than an oversized Shogunate with the puppet states basically reduced to just that, puppets.

  One awkward point would be the level of Chinese nationalism and hostility towards western economic interests in China, including things like International Settlement in Shanghai and of course Hong Kong and Macao.  How much would the western powers - who haven't lost those resources without a war with Japan - be willing to give up and how quickly.  Especially considering that a KMT victory will leave China under a corrupt and militaristic government which has been willing to play the xenophobic card in the past. 

  In terms of Japan it would depend on how much it changed from the militaristic empire with a strong racists stance.  Its still going to maintain a strong military here because of the perceived threat from the USSR so the army is likely to stay powerful.  As such while they won't have the same history of abuse of fellow Asians - expect in Korea - relations could be rocky at time depending on how overbearing or not Japan is.

[stevep]

Sept 16, 2022 5:58:08 GMT gillan1220 said:

Sept 16, 2022 1:37:46 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Most likely that China would side with the Allies against the USSR. Although there is also one thing that have to be stressed: without the Second Sino-Japanese War, you’d have more Asian colonies be willing to side with Japan against their colonial masters, as the lack of Japanese atrocities would make the Japanese Empire more appealing to the rest of Asia. At best, the newly recognized nations in SE Asia would be similar to Thailand during OTL WWII.

Perhaps the GEACPS would become a thing, albeit a more genuine bloc than an oversized Shogunate with the puppet states basically reduced to just that, puppets.

As memory serves, Stalin had a friendly ties with the KMT because he distrusted Mao Zedong. Plus, it would benefit the Soviet Union to have an autocratic capitalist state because of trade. Stalin would definitely want his cut.

The GEACPS would be an economic bloc just like ASEAN today, but the extent would probably be limited rather that its height in 1942-43.

  From what I've seen it was less distrust of Mao, who seemed to get on well with him and was bitterly hostile to Khrushchev's denouncement of Stalin.  More than Stalin decided that the KMT was a better choice for fighting the Japanese rather than the weaker communist movement.

  If such a GEACPS formed under those conditions, as a real economic bloc between co-operating members then it might end up even larger than OTL either ASEAN or GEACPS was it could be a focus for the OTL Non-Aligned movement.  Possibly you might see it expand to an independent India which was a major element in the NAM and that could serve as a balance to the political and military power of Japan.  [Such an organisation might also serve for some members as a balance against a powerful China as well as to avoid getting dragged into one side or the other in the cold war.

[raharris1973]

Feb 10, 2022 16:32:39 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Make the Japanese not invade China in 1937 and either limit their presence to Manchuria or prevent it's annexation as well.

Instead of just detailing consequences, here are a couple ways to get to the result requested by the OP:

1) At some point, or multiple points, between 1934 and the summer of 1937, Japanese-Soviet border clashes on the Manchukuo-USSR or Mongolia border escalate and one or more of these goes as bad for the Japanese as Khalkhin-Gol in 1939, making Japan too wary of potential Soviet attack on Manchukuo or Korea to extend its campaigns on the Asian mainland in any direction, even China south of the Great Wall.

2) At some point between 1934 and the summer of 1937, Japanese-Soviet border clashes escalate into a full-scale war, initiated by either side (more likely the Japanese, especially in the earlier years) and this either absorbs all Japanese energies, or sees the Japanese defeated in Manchuria and physically unable to use it to invade China

3) Chiang Kai-shek is killed during the Xian incident of 1936.  This leads the enraged Nanjing government to go to escalated war against the Communists and sympathetic warlord allies, mainly in northwest China, who favor an anti-Japanese united front.  While doing so, the right-wing conservatives of Nanjing, and Wang Jingwei, minimize conflict with and defiance of Japan, which suits Tokyo's civilian and military leader's plans perfectly as they build up Manchuria. Not wanting to interrupt the Chinese fight each other, the Japanese don't escalate to major operations in China proper.