Borgen - Greenland oil WI

[575]

Borgen – Greenland oil WI

Borgen Danish drama series of a woman elected Primeminister of Denmark and later Minister of Foreign Affairs in a coalition Government; in its latest iteration of February 2022 is about a find of a huge oilfield in Greenland at Ilulissat which is situated in Disco Bay close to the most producing glacier in the world.

Ilulissat is at the top point of the oval.

The find is now though OTL prospecting for oil in Greenland ended 2014 and was closed down 2021.
Originally prospecting was to be done off-shore 2004 during the days of huge consumption and sales which led to shale-oil prospecting in the US 2005 and which peaked when recession set in 2009.
By 2022 oilprices were rising so a good time to bring into narrative new prospecting in Greenland.

Seen in a historical perspective the time of hitting bonanza in Greenland could be either 2004/5 right after prospecting begins or perhaps as narrated now in 2022 with rising oilprices and economic inflation or rather on a field prospecting beginning during 2021 before closing down but allowed to carry on and then become the vehicle of Greenland deciding its future.

A number of questions arise from the finding; if Greenland goes independent what happens to the USA-Denmark Military Bases agreement of WWII? What will the US offer Greenland to be able to maintain the bases?
Greenland may decide to see how much may be offered by playing Russia and the US against each other with China also in the mix as it was on prospecting for metals and vying for the build and running of oreextracting industry. Of course with Russia annexing Ukraine territory that would be out as a player - how would Greenland protect itself from such fate if playing with the Devil!
How about the EU could that become a player – Denmark would like this if it doesn't get to retain Greenland within its Commonwealth which then really would be gone and Greenland possibly orient itself towards the Americas as is already the case in sports.

Even if Greenland go for independence it might go for some kind of continued bond with Denmark if only because Denmark would be able to deliver the military needed which Greenland doesn't have the means to conjure up itself without the tradition.
Another state skeleton is administration which is still in its infancy and diplomacy even more so where Denmark have more than a thoudsend years experience in both as well as military.

The finding of oil would be the economic boost Greenland wants; in the TV-series its estimated an oilfield producing 100,000,000 barrels a year with an estimated 2022 value of 334 trillion dollars total.
If Greenland remain within the Danish Commonwealth Denmark would cut off the yearly payment to Greenland of 0,65 bill. dollars which would make Greenland fund its yearly budget of 2,1 bill. dollars by itself. Which would still leave the Greenlanders with almost 2 bill. dollars annually for shits and giggles.
Though still Greenland would need to build itself into a modern state which it populace just isn't prepared for – yet.

What would Greenland need for defences?
Denmark fields 4 large – Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. These also have to serve the Faeroe Is. In addition Denmark field another two smaller Fishery Inspection Ships for Greenland with landing craft.
Denmark also field an airgroup of usually a C-130 Transport aircraft a Challenger surveillance aircraft in Greenland but is to upgrade this.
Denmark also field the Sirius Sleigh Patrol which patrol Northeast Greenland for foreign incursion and maintain a national presence so Denmark may maintain its claim to the area.

Greenland would need at least 3 large - Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which might dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. The ASW capability may be deemed unnecessary. It may also want to continue with two smaller inspection ships.
The Inspection Ships may be of slightly different design with the absence of ASW capability but also because of recent natural disasters in Greenland with accomodation for passengers and with some landing craft aboard. The Danish ships have a crew of 61 and accomodation for another 12 the Greenland ships might have a sligtly larger crew and more accomodation and with another weapons suite.
The smaller Inspection Ships have a crew of 18 with accomdation of another 25. Such ships would serve Greenland well though perhaps Greenland would like to have room for a smaller helicopter on each like a Bell UH-1.

However with the possibility of prospeting at sea and year round service of oilers in Disco Bay Greenland will also need service these with Icebreakers not around today. That would make for at least two to add to the small Navy each also with a helo.
These would be able to dub as SAR units off the ice season.

Which leads to helicopters which will maintain SAR duties. Experience have shown that a large helicopter the size about a S-61 is desired as small parties have been recued by a single helo and that won't change due to the size of Greenlands. You can't count on another helo available to rescue larger parties. This was tried out 2017 when part of a mountain collapsed sending a tsunami at some small villages.
Greenland may need 5 helo's for the ships and at least another 2 in reserve making optimal a squadron of 7-8.

Denmark also field a small Airforce unit which supplies the Sirius Sleigh Patrol in North East Greenland as well as other installations up there and surveille sea ice and participate in SAR duties thus at least 1 C-130 unit and 1 Challenger unit is needed with reserves of at least one each makes for two of each type.
As tension is rising in the Arctic Greenland may well want some Surveillance/ASW aircraft optimally 3 of each.

Finally something like the Sirius Sleigh Patrol must be maintained in Northeast Greenland to claim sovreignty there.
That would make for some 25 troops in the area year round with a steady recruitment. This type of service is very much in line with traditional Inuit hunting way of life and would be easily most easily of all services formed and maintained.
Additionally a small reserve to form heavy support for Police but also to combat intrusions; possibly no more than 2-3 companies needed.

However the population base of Greenlands limited to 55,000. It will be difficult to maintain a force of some 250 for the Navy, 100 for the Airforce and some 300 for the Sleigh Patrol/Infantry.
650 may seem small for a nation of 55,000 but more than half will be specialists outside Inuit way of life and about half of these highly specialized aircrew which may even tax the ability to run the internal and external air-services!
The majority of the Infantry would have to be parttimers like a Homeguard beefed up with former Sleigh Patrol personnel.

Air Greenland runs a fleet of 1 Airbus 330-200, 7 DASH-8 and 1 King Air.
2 Airbus H225 Helo's, 8 Bell 212 and 9 AS350.
The Airbus H225 have a SAR obligation and the King Air is a flying ambulance.

To minimize expences and draw on existing resources the Greenland Navy may be termed a Coast Guard and share helicopters maintenance with Air Greenland by utilizing 3-4 H225 and 4 Bell 212 with one of each in reserve. Perhaps some arrangement could be made putting the Air Ambulance Service with the new Air National Guard using its aircraft and thus free Air Greenland of its need to field one such. Air Greenland also have a SAR obligation for its two H225 which could also be taken over by Coast Guard. As Air Greenland is partly owned by Greenland Government that would be a savings.

Any thoughts?

[lordroel]

Feb 23, 2022 13:16:14 GMT 575 said:

Any thoughts?

Where and who gets the money from the oil.

[575]

This is not so much about the TV-series but rather to exploit the real world actions in a WI.
In the series a Canadian Consortium which a Russian Oligark have bought into is the prospector. Hence Danish Government works to stop extraction from happening.

[belushitd]

In this scenario, Greenland needs a few things VERY badly.

1. Oil field training for the .... Greenlandish? Greenlander? population. If they're going to be extracting 100,000,000 barrels of oil a year, they're going to need to employ a LOT of people. Tack onto that the warm bodies needed to build the infrastructure. Construction would run upwards of 15,000 people, which would be a HUGE chunk of their population. They're going to need both training for the locals and a way to keep the imported people from culturally destroying Greenland.

2. Defense - With their current day population, Greenland NEEDS to find a strong country to ally with that will NOT try to take them over. Canada might do the trick since they share the area already and many of the First Nations in Canada would get along just fine with the natives of Greenland. However, they do not possess a deterrent. The US is an obvious possibility. The UK would also work. France is another possibility. There is no way that whatever home grown military they can come up with will be viable in any kind of a serious military situation. A half dozen frigates with helicopters and a few C-130s isn't going to cut it. In fact, its either too much, or not enough.

3. Education - The best way for Greenland to be able to take care of its needs is to get everyone a first class education. They're going to need to continue to import teachers and so forth until they get to the point where their own people are filling those positions. This will also help with the employment for the oil patch. The difficulty, of course, lies in getting everyone on board. There's always people who don't want to do what they're told, and there's going to be a lot of people who want nothing to do with working construction or working in the oil fields. (long hours, hard work)


In many ways, this is a similar situation to what existed in northwest Alaska in the early to mid 80's. A large deposit of lead and zinc was discovered, and the native population was completely unequipped to extract it. They had recently (about 10 or so years ago) gotten their Native Corporation off the ground, but they didn't have the cash or the trained people to actually DO anything about the natural resources. It took about 20 years for the locals to start taking over the positions that required more education and to do so, the company that was running the mine started sending people to college on scholarships to get them educated to the point where they could take over.

The exact same thing will need to happen to Greenland. Yes, you can train someone to operate a bulldozer in a short period of time, but its not anywhere nearly as easy to turn someone into a petroleum geologist, or train them to operate the pumping stations required to transport the oil from well head to tanker.

Oh, add something to the list of stuff they'll need.... Icebreakers. A whole fleet of them, to keep the shipping channel open during the winter. I think the OP said that there are already two of them. They'll need probably 12 in total. And trained crews, probably two for each ship, so the ship can spend as much time at sea as possible. Otherwise, they'll have to build an ENORMOUS number of tanks to hold the oil from when the shipping season ends to when it starts up again. The mine I referenced above has at the time they were build, two of the world's largest buildings to hold the concentrated ore between shipping seasons.

Logic on number of icebreakers - You need a minimum of three at any time during the winter. One running a convoy of tankers north to the shipping facility, one running a convoy of tankers south out of the shipping facility to the open Atlantic, and one IN the area of the shipping facility, keeping the floes and icebergs away from the tankers. You need, at a minimum, triple that to maintain your structure as for each ship that is out breaking ice, you need one working up to deploy and one in maintenance/drydock (there's another thing that they're likely to need, along with people to WORK in said drydock). So, to maintain the channel to and from the Atlantic, you need 9 icebreakers. The other needs are unlikely to go away, so there should be the two original icebreakers. That means 11. There should be at least one icebreaker available to fill in for emergency needs. So, 12 in total.

They are also going to need to set up some kind of savings and disbursement system for the cash from the oil. Norway has one way, Alaska has another. I think there's a couple more out there, but they have to make sure the accounts can't be raided by whatever person is running the place. Money in general is unlikely to be an issue. At 100,000,000 barrels a year, they're going to be able to afford whatever they want to buy. It would be a good idea to not just look at the initial cost of whatever they're looking at, but the upkeep and such. Back in the 70's, when the Alaska pipeline first opened, a lot of local governments went out and spent their share on whatever, and didn't put any cash away for a rainy day. As a result, a lot of stuff that should have lasted a long time ended up suffering from lack of maintenance and breaking way too soon.

Belushi TD

[575]

Belusthitd;

Thanks for Your input; it only highlights what is a major part of the problem in Greenland today as seen from my perspective.
Peoples want the money but they don't look into the future to secure it for they children.
The manly ideal is that of the Hunter; I'm quite respected up there born in Ilulissat of a lineage of hunters and a even few renowned ones. So if you attended that yearning or trying why go to college and become a petroleum geologist; won't give street cred!
So generally its girls going to Denmark getting a degree with some staying once they have gotten their degree with others turning back home to do something.
Problem is they are too few. You'd have difficulty in mobilizing a work force of 15,000 from 55,000 when you also have to train the management staff and all the needed extras.
BTW there ain't no ice-breakers in Greenland those two were my low-estimate guess. One problem is weather occilations; Greenlands just come out of a decade of ice-bound waters which you have to couple to global warming meaning ice-breakers may not be needed this decade but the next - how to make decision makers pay for that as it is only needed in ten or twenty years? (This is of course a global politial issue getting politicians to plan ahead sufficiently but..)
The Military assessment is only a low-estimate based on what Greenland might be able to do but always with the need to align with somebody else - and if not Denmark.. Problem is that recently Greenlands been trying to play the various players in the Arctic against each other but you can't do that forever not in a world with the potential of a Putin showing up!

[stevep]

Mar 8, 2022 8:09:17 GMT 575 said:

Belusthitd;

Thanks for Your input; it only highlights what is a major part of the problem in Greenland today as seen from my perspective.
Peoples want the money but they don't look into the future to secure it for they children.
The manly ideal is that of the Hunter; I'm quite respected up there born in Ilulissat of a lineage of hunters and a even few renowned ones. So if you attended that yearning or trying why go to college and become a petroleum geologist; won't give street cred!
So generally its girls going to Denmark getting a degree with some staying once they have gotten their degree with others turning back home to do something.
Problem is they are too few. You'd have difficulty in mobilizing a work force of 15,000 from 55,000 when you also have to train the management staff and all the needed extras.
BTW there ain't no ice-breakers in Greenland those two were my low-estimate guess. One problem is weather occilations; Greenlands just come out of a decade of ice-bound waters which you have to couple to global warming meaning ice-breakers may not be needed this decade but the next - how to make decision makers pay for that as it is only needed in ten or twenty years? (This is of course a global politial issue getting politicians to plan ahead sufficiently but..)
The Military assessment is only a low-estimate based on what Greenland might be able to do but always with the need to align with somebody else - and if not Denmark.. Problem is that recently Greenlands been trying to play the various players in the Arctic against each other but you can't do that forever not in a world with the potential of a Putin showing up!

  In terms of defence I think whether the US is involved in a formal treaty with Greenland or not its not going to allow a power it thinks hostile to it to occupy Greenland.  Ditto with Canada I suspect although it lacks the same power.  Denmark and Britain are also likely to support such a stance.  Plus while Greenland isn't in the EU isn't it still part of NATO under Danish formal governance?

[575]

Mar 8, 2022 16:57:42 GMT stevep said:

Mar 8, 2022 8:09:17 GMT 575 said:

Belusthitd;

Thanks for Your input; it only highlights what is a major part of the problem in Greenland today as seen from my perspective.
Peoples want the money but they don't look into the future to secure it for they children.
The manly ideal is that of the Hunter; I'm quite respected up there born in Ilulissat of a lineage of hunters and a even few renowned ones. So if you attended that yearning or trying why go to college and become a petroleum geologist; won't give street cred!
So generally its girls going to Denmark getting a degree with some staying once they have gotten their degree with others turning back home to do something.
Problem is they are too few. You'd have difficulty in mobilizing a work force of 15,000 from 55,000 when you also have to train the management staff and all the needed extras.
BTW there ain't no ice-breakers in Greenland those two were my low-estimate guess. One problem is weather occilations; Greenlands just come out of a decade of ice-bound waters which you have to couple to global warming meaning ice-breakers may not be needed this decade but the next - how to make decision makers pay for that as it is only needed in ten or twenty years? (This is of course a global politial issue getting politicians to plan ahead sufficiently but..)
The Military assessment is only a low-estimate based on what Greenland might be able to do but always with the need to align with somebody else - and if not Denmark.. Problem is that recently Greenlands been trying to play the various players in the Arctic against each other but you can't do that forever not in a world with the potential of a Putin showing up!

  In terms of defence I think whether the US is involved in a formal treaty with Greenland or not its not going to allow a power it thinks hostile to it to occupy Greenland.  Ditto with Canada I suspect although it lacks the same power.  Denmark and Britain are also likely to support such a stance.  Plus while Greenland isn't in the EU isn't it still part of NATO under Danish formal governance?

As long as its party to Danish Commonwealth it is part of NATO.

The major thing is that Denmark or rather its Minister to Washington Henrik Kaufmann and US 1941 negotiated the base agreement today only Thule is left. I think an independent Greenland may try use that to bargain with the US regarding military assistance/partnership. Of course the US wants to keep the basing rights its just a matter of price and I think Greenland should be weary of eventual consequences.