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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Mar 5, 2022 14:34:47 GMT
1st January 1990 is two days after Vaclav Havel was elected as the President of Czechoslovakia. June 23th 1956 is the start of the Hungarian Revolution.
Czechoslovakia has a pretty formidable army with over 600 T-72s, 2800 T-55s, 20 MiG-29s, 70 MiG-23d and 180 MiG-21s as well as Su-25s and Mi-24s.
Czechoslovak intervention in Hungary is sure. What comes next?
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Mar 5, 2022 22:42:52 GMT
The Soviet Politburo: I hope that’s Shepard’s Pie in my knickers.
The Polish Embassy in Prague will quietly remind Havel of something Stalin did called Katyn. Bonn will want them to do something about the GDR.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 6, 2022 16:18:59 GMT
I don't know. The Soviets reacted strongly to Hungary OTL and their going to be very upset if Czechoslovakia suddenly seems to have revolted as well, especially since their sizeable Soviet forces there have disappeared. Plus the west didn't react OTL because they didn't want a wider war with the Soviets. This could get very bloody and I wouldn't put it past Moscow to use nukes if necessary to subdue their rebels. However its going to weaken them in the short term at least in any scenario.
If Havel is able to pull Czechoslovakia through - he could have problems with pro-communists elements who OTL were deterred by the fact the collapse of the USSR meant they had no backers - then he's got the most technologically advanced nation in the world with knowledge of a hell of a lot of things to come. Which is actually another reason once they hear [and understand] what's happened, why Moscow is going to be very unwilling to let his country go.
Steve
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575
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Post by 575 on Mar 8, 2022 9:12:39 GMT
I don't know. The Soviets reacted strongly to Hungary OTL and their going to be very upset if Czechoslovakia suddenly seems to have revolted as well, especially since their sizeable Soviet forces there have disappeared. Plus the west didn't react OTL because they didn't want a wider war with the Soviets. This could get very bloody and I wouldn't put it past Moscow to use nukes if necessary to subdue their rebels. However its going to weaken them in the short term at least in any scenario.
If Havel is able to pull Czechoslovakia through - he could have problems with pro-communists elements who OTL were deterred by the fact the collapse of the USSR meant they had no backers - then he's got the most technologically advanced nation in the world with knowledge of a hell of a lot of things to come. Which is actually another reason once they hear [and understand] what's happened, why Moscow is going to be very unwilling to let his country go.
Steve
Just did a quick search; the Soviets had an estimated 3,000 nuklear warheads at the time airdelivered as the R-5M rocket - first Soviet one to deliver nuklear warheads was only tested 2. February 1956 and the warhead being af fizzle. The Soviet troops didn't get stationed in Czechoslovakia till 1968; US and Soviet forces withdrew from Czechoslovakia 1945.
Czechoslovakia was deemed reliabel 1956 by the Soviets as voices of dissent had been clamped down on hard in Czechoslovakia so an about turn of that state with a capitalist/democratic outlook would be too much for the Soviets but it would take some preparation for the Soviets to invade Czechoslovakia; time for Havel to negotiate the West and prepare for the Soviet onslaught. He may well want to aid the Hungarians but he have to cover his back too.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 8, 2022 16:49:02 GMT
I don't know. The Soviets reacted strongly to Hungary OTL and their going to be very upset if Czechoslovakia suddenly seems to have revolted as well, especially since their sizeable Soviet forces there have disappeared. Plus the west didn't react OTL because they didn't want a wider war with the Soviets. This could get very bloody and I wouldn't put it past Moscow to use nukes if necessary to subdue their rebels. However its going to weaken them in the short term at least in any scenario.
If Havel is able to pull Czechoslovakia through - he could have problems with pro-communists elements who OTL were deterred by the fact the collapse of the USSR meant they had no backers - then he's got the most technologically advanced nation in the world with knowledge of a hell of a lot of things to come. Which is actually another reason once they hear [and understand] what's happened, why Moscow is going to be very unwilling to let his country go.
Steve
Just did a quick search; the Soviets had an estimated 3,000 nuklear warheads at the time airdelivered as the R-5M rocket - first Soviet one to deliver nuklear warheads was only tested 2. February 1956 and the warhead being af fizzle. The Soviet troops didn't get stationed in Czechoslovakia till 1968; US and Soviet forces withdrew from Czechoslovakia 1945.
Czechoslovakia was deemed reliabel 1956 by the Soviets as voices of dissent had been clamped down on hard in Czechoslovakia so an about turn of that state with a capitalist/democratic outlook would be too much for the Soviets but it would take some preparation for the Soviets to invade Czechoslovakia; time for Havel to negotiate the West and prepare for the Soviet onslaught. He may well want to aid the Hungarians but he have to cover his back too.
OK thanks for that. Never realised they didn't have forces stationed in Czechoslovakia between 1945-68. Knew they were a factor in the threat to southern W Germany in the 70's and 80's but surprised that they didn't have them in there before 1968.
Steve
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