Stalingrad falls to the Nazis

[melanie]

General Von Kliest of the 1st Panzer army wrote "The (4th Panzer) army could have taken Stalingrad without a fight in mid-July but was diverted South to help me cross the lower Don. I did not need its aid and it merely congested the roads I was using. When it turned north again, a fortnight later, the Russians had gatered sufficient forces at Stalingrad to check it."

POD: It isn't diverted and takes Stalingrad. The German army will then want an advance up the Volga. but Hitler will demand they drive for the oil fields in the Caucasus.

[stevep]

Apr 2, 2022 13:41:48 GMT melanie said:

General Von Kliest of the 1st Panzer army wrote "The (4th Panzer) army could

have taken Stalingrad without a fight in mid-July but was diverted South to

help me cross the lower Don. I did not need its aid and it merely congested

the roads I was using. When it turned north again, a fortnight later, the

Russians had gatered sufficient forces at Stalingrad to check it."

POD: It isn't diverted and takes Stalingrad. The German army will then want an advance up the Volga. but Hitler will demand they drive for the oil fields in the Caucasus, 

  I have seen some suggestions of this before, that they could have taken Stalingrad quickly.  Assuming this is the case by 'up the Volga' do you mean NE upriver?  I doubt this as that would strain their logistics massively and leave them very exposed to flanking and isolation let alone needing to leave a strong garrison in the Stalingrad area against the inevitable counter attacks Stalin is likely to order.

  Could see some advantages in a drive down towards Astrakhan and the delta, which would cover the flank of the force heading for Baku.  A defensive line on the lower Volga-Stalingrad then across to the Don would be a lot stronger, especially without the crippling losses that the force suffered OTL.  That would isolate the Caucasus region from easy resupply and make a collapse there more likely.  [Soviet supplies and reinforcements would have to come across the Caspian or through allied occupied Iran].  Even if Baku wasn't taken it would be more difficult for oil from there to reach the rest of the Red Army.

  The key issues is whether the Soviets can mount a big enough counter attack, which would be a lot more difficult in those circumstances and how long both the Caucasus front could hold out and how badly restrictions on supply from it would affect the rest of the Soviet forces.

  I have seen it suggested on another site that without the OTL Soviet victories forces the Germans back to the Donets region by the spring of 1943 the Soviets would have suffered massive starvation and probably a collapse but I find this unlikely.  Apart from anything else regaining the steppes in those areas wouldn't produce much foodstuff until the following harvest region so I don't see them being significant in terms of total food for the Soviets.

[melanie]

stevep, As Kliest wrote, this is a pretty easy POD.

Assuming that the Nazis head for the Caucasus after they take Stalingrad, the Soviets will want to make sure the Baku oil fields are not captured intact and given Stalin's scorched earth orders?

[stevep]

Apr 2, 2022 14:01:17 GMT melanie said:

stevep , As Kliest wrote, this is a pretty easy POD.

Assuming that the Nazis head for the Caucasus after they take Stalingrad, the Soviets will want to make sure the Baku oil fields are not captured intact and given Stalin's scorched earth orders?

  Definitely.  Have read he gave such instructions OTL.  I think the most important issue however is that the oil is denied the Soviets rather than its being gained by the Germans as they would have problems using it anyway. 

[michelvan]

The case is not so easy...

First - It was the little Annoying Austrian that got obsess with Stalingrad and his contradictory orders what let to downfall of 6th army in Stalingrad...

Two - Destroy Stalingrad would change little in War, just Stalin get more angry on Hitler and trow more Troops against Germans

Three - occupy Baku would not hurt the Soviets since the USA delivery under the Lend-Lease Act around 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products to USSR
in other words the Soviet war machine would run further and could making Baku "the Stalingrad" for Wehrmacht...

[lordroel]

Apr 3, 2022 15:15:16 GMT michelvan said:

The case is not so easy...

First - It was the little Annoying Austrian that got obsess with Stalingrad and his contradictory orders what let to downfall of 6th army in Stalingrad...

I agree, had the city not carry the name of Stalin, it would be just another city the Germans would have tried to seize.

[575]

Apr 3, 2022 15:15:16 GMT michelvan said:

The case is not so easy...

First - It was the little Annoying Austrian that got obsess with Stalingrad and his contradictory orders what let to downfall of 6th army in Stalingrad...

Two - Destroy Stalingrad would change little in War, just Stalin get more angry on Hitler and trow more Troops against Germans

Three - occupy Baku would not hurt the Soviets since the USA delivery under the Lend-Lease Act around 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products to USSR
in other words the Soviet war machine would run further and could making Baku "the Stalingrad" for Wehrmacht...

Quite - even if occupying Stalingrad make the Germans able to block movement of Oil along Volga river the US will still be able to fuel the Soviet machine.

[melanie]

575, lordroel, stevep, michelvan, Also, Moslem areas in the Caucases might rise up against the Soviets as the Germans approach Baku after taking Stalingrad in this timeline.

[lordroel]

Apr 3, 2022 16:58:35 GMT melanie said:

575, lordroel, stevep, michelvan, Also, Moslem areas in the Caucases might rise up against the Soviets as the Germans approach Baku after taking Stalingrad in this timeline.

Okay, do not tag everyone who has posted in the thread, final advice.

[stevep]

Apr 3, 2022 16:08:10 GMT 575 said:

Apr 3, 2022 15:15:16 GMT michelvan said:

The case is not so easy...

First - It was the little Annoying Austrian that got obsess with Stalingrad and his contradictory orders what let to downfall of 6th army in Stalingrad...

Two - Destroy Stalingrad would change little in War, just Stalin get more angry on Hitler and trow more Troops against Germans

Three - occupy Baku would not hurt the Soviets since the USA delivery under the Lend-Lease Act around 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products to USSR
in other words the Soviet war machine would run further and could making Baku "the Stalingrad" for Wehrmacht...

Quite - even if occupying Stalingrad make the Germans able to block movement of Oil along Volga river the US will still be able to fuel the Soviet machine.

  Yes the US can supply oil to the Soviets but how much more and at what costs?

  According to the WWII Databook by John Ellis the USSR produced the following amounts of oil while at war, units are million metric tons.

Year       Amount

1941        33.0

1942        22.0

1943        18.0

1944        18.2

1945        19.4

Total       110.6

  As such the 2-3M tons that the US sent OTL was only about 2% of Soviet consumption during this period.  According to wiki @ Baku_during_World_War_II Baku:

In 1940, 71.4% of all oil production, 80% of aviation gasoline, 90% of ligroin and kerosene, 96% of automotive and industrial oils in the USSR were produced by Baku enterprises.[1][9][10]

  I would guess that Baku's production dropped because of problems with supplying the oilfields with materials and equipment and possibly getting oil out to the rest of the USSR, especially in 1942 although not sure why it continued to drop further in 1943 and only picked up slightly in 44-45?  Possibly too many experienced men had been conscripted into the Red Army?

  Of course the allies can send more oil to the Soviets but that has faces two bottlenecks.

a)  Getting oil to the USSR.  The best route would be via the Pacific to Vladivostok as using Soviet flagged ships its safe from attack.  However the allies are very short of tankers to transfer to the Soviets especially given they were a primary target in the 2nd Happy Time for the U boats and with the demands for oil for the US and British military's they have substantial demands for tankers themselves.

b)  From Vladivostok it would have to be transferred along the Trans-Siberian Railway.  Which is single tracked along much of its length and the Soviets are already short of locos and carriages after the losses in 1941.  It has a limited capacity and I suspect it was pretty much fully used OTL.  As such you could only transport more oil, which probably needs special carriages by cutting down something else.

 

[575]

Hmm must have been carried away..
Anyway had to look up the map of old Drive on Stalingrad game map. There was a railway linking up from Baku to Astrakhan then railway further north behind the Volga. Some of that railway were at times reached by German patrols on the Steppe. Mainline from Baku going to Rostov which is the one shown on maps.
Though the Soviets shipped the oil from Baku over the Caspian to Astrakhan and then up the Volga which necessiated control of not only the city but also the river; with the Volga being the main transport artery they would do something to retain control and they claim to have kept that open during the full battle for Stalingrad.
During the battle the Soviets also ferried oil east across the Caspian to Kasnovodsk in present Turkmenistan and moved from there to the front - it a long haul as the railway goes through Samarkand.
Giving need the Soviets might perhaps utilize the Ural River from Gurev to Chkalov and then rail it on to Kuibyshev.

The furthest south the Germans made it was Mozdok on Terek river from there its another 150 mi./240 km to Maknachkala on the Caspian coast and then another 220 mi/ 350 km to Baku.
I don't really see the Germans making across the Caucasus or down to Baku as the Soviets despite the periphery lines would still try to utilize the Volga for transport if possible thus contest the Germans there. That would still tie down German troops.
Should the Germans attempt a Muslim/Armenian (they recruited both groups for Army Legions) uprising the Soviet reprisals would be heavy; even if the Soviets had control of parts of nothern Iran since late August 1941 in concert with the British that occupied the Iranian oilfields on the Persian Gulf to eventually withdraw into.