Fate of the Philippines (and Hawaii) 1898

[575]

I stumbled across this thread at AHcom where in the last post poster claims the Spanish Governor General considered signing off the Colony to the Philippinos though as I looked up the Paris Peace Treaty had Spain letting the USA take over the colony for 20 mi. $. Can any of our resident Philippinos shed light on this?

I also found Khan Academy writing that the young US Democracy might have decided to just rip Spain of her colonies and not annex those though also that Hawaii was annexed due to fears of Japanese taking over these islands - is this valid?

Wiki article have quite some on the German Far Eastern Squadrons activities in Manila Harbour following the US defeat of the Spanish Navy there.

So what if Spain don't let the US "buy" the Philippines but sign them off to the Philippinos post war? or

the US decide not to become Empirebuilders?

which latter include what happens to Hawaii, Cuba and Guam? May the US decide to go for Guam anyway to get a mid-Pacific coaling station/Navy base?

[gillan1220]

The First Philippine Republic would become a useful ally of Japan which was supporting independence movements in Asia in this period. This would result in an alternate WWII 50 years later.

Hawaii would probably be independent but would also be a client of Tokyo. Same for Guam. Cuba might be independent as OTL with significant United States oversight to the Europeans should they get an ideas.

[575]

Apr 26, 2022 11:38:30 GMT gillan1220 said:

The First Philippine Republic would become a useful ally of Japan which was supporting independence movements in Asia in this period. This would result in an alternate WWII 50 years later.

Hawaii would probably be independent but would also be a client of Tokyo. Same for Guam. Cuba might be independent as OTL with significant United States oversight to the Europeans should they get an ideas.

I see - so Japan would shield these nations from being colonized.

Well yes if there is a WWII and this was also part of my reasoning.

How about Germany I understood that they were very aggressive in Manila Bay but then Japan took their area in China WWI so might see to keeping them off which may provoke conflict between the two?

[gillan1220]

Apr 26, 2022 15:20:36 GMT 575 said:

Apr 26, 2022 11:38:30 GMT gillan1220 said:

The First Philippine Republic would become a useful ally of Japan which was supporting independence movements in Asia in this period. This would result in an alternate WWII 50 years later.

Hawaii would probably be independent but would also be a client of Tokyo. Same for Guam. Cuba might be independent as OTL with significant United States oversight to the Europeans should they get an ideas.

I see - so Japan would shield these nations from being colonized.

Well yes if there is a WWII and this was also part of my reasoning.

How about Germany I understood that they were very aggressive in Manila Bay but then Japan took their area in China WWI so might see to keeping them off which may provoke conflict between the two?

Germany also wanted the Philippines. Almost traded shots with the USN in Manila Bay. It depends which happens first: if the Filipinos manage to declare independence and ally themselves with Japan, then that prevents the archipelago from falling into German hands.

However, if Germany comes "liberating" the islands from Spain, then the islands fall into Prussian sphere. If Germany succeeds, then the Philippines would be added to its Pacific colonies which would become a front in WWI. Japan would then "liberate" it as well.

My understanding too is WWI was going to happen either way. So now we have an upcoming alternate WWII.

[TheRomanSlayer]

I would also assume that the other islands that were a part of the Spanish East Indies would have become the Philippines ITTL, if the US aren't going to build a colonial empire. If in the event that the Germans would seize the Philippines from Spain, they would also get the rest of the islands as well.

Now, if the Philippines were to succeed in becoming independent and ally themselves with Japan, at the very least the Japanese would be allowed to purchase the areas around the Marianas and Micronesia, and possibly the other islands of the Spanish East Indies.

[575]

Found some map of the Spanish East Indies 1898

The independent Philippines have to hurry cause the next map shows what the German put their hands on following the Spanish-American War and Treaty of Paris

With Germany that eager to acquire colonies in the Pacific and with close to war over Samoa it could be very volatile with Japan having to act quickly. It may well expand its Navy building programme with British approval as it is going to counter both Russia and Germany in area.

[gillan1220]

Apr 27, 2022 4:50:27 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I would also assume that the other islands that were a part of the Spanish East Indies would have become the Philippines ITTL, if the US aren't going to build a colonial empire. If in the event that the Germans would seize the Philippines from Spain, they would also get the rest of the islands as well.

Now, if the Philippines were to succeed in becoming independent and ally themselves with Japan, at the very least the Japanese would be allowed to purchase the areas around the Marianas and Micronesia, and possibly the other islands of the Spanish East Indies.

Apr 27, 2022 12:00:25 GMT 575 said:

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Found some map of the Spanish East Indies 1898

The independent Philippines have to hurry cause the next map shows what the German put their hands on following the Spanish-American War and Treaty of Paris

With Germany that eager to acquire colonies in the Pacific and with close to war over Samoa it could be very volatile with Japan having to act quickly. It may well expand its Navy building programme with British approval as it is going to counter both Russia and Germany in area.

In other words, a greater Philippines?

[575]

Possibly but we might have some Great Power shuffle over it as the Germans - at least - will want some piece of cake.

[gillan1220]

Apr 27, 2022 13:59:46 GMT 575 said:

Possibly but we might have some Great Power shuffle over it as the Germans - at least - will want some piece of cake.

With that said, American interests in Asia are limited. The limit of their power projection would be in Hawaii and Wake Island. We would probably see an Imperial German-Japanese Cold War in the early 20th century.

[575]

Apr 27, 2022 14:36:33 GMT gillan1220 said:

Apr 27, 2022 13:59:46 GMT 575 said:

Possibly but we might have some Great Power shuffle over it as the Germans - at least - will want some piece of cake.

With that said, American interests in Asia are limited. The limit of their power projection would be in Hawaii and Wake Island. We would probably see an Imperial German-Japanese Cold War in the early 20th century.

I'm not sure a cold war may do it. In two years time things are going to go bad in China and the Germans are going to fight the Yellow Peril besides feeling cheated by the other Great Powers of rightful colonies. A place in the sun - remember.

[gillan1220]

Apr 27, 2022 15:05:44 GMT 575 said:

Apr 27, 2022 14:36:33 GMT gillan1220 said:

With that said, American interests in Asia are limited. The limit of their power projection would be in Hawaii and Wake Island. We would probably see an Imperial German-Japanese Cold War in the early 20th century.

I'm not sure a cold war may do it. In two years time things are going to go bad in China and the Germans are going to fight the Yellow Peril besides feeling cheated by the other Great Powers of rightful colonies. A place in the sun - remember.

So a different WWI will play out in Asia?

[575]

Possibly a conflict that will drag European Powers into it - Britain on the side of Japan, Russia on the side of Germany. A kind of slightly early WWI.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Apr 27, 2022 21:15:03 GMT 575 said:

Possibly a conflict that will drag European Powers into it - Britain on the side of Japan, Russia on the side of Germany. A kind of slightly early WWI.

This might allow the Germans to repair their fractured relationship with Russia, but there’s also France and Austria-Hungary to consider as well.

[575]

Apr 28, 2022 0:39:37 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Apr 27, 2022 21:15:03 GMT 575 said:

Possibly a conflict that will drag European Powers into it - Britain on the side of Japan, Russia on the side of Germany. A kind of slightly early WWI.

This might allow the Germans to repair their fractured relationship with Russia, but there’s also France and Austria-Hungary to consider as well.

It may and the Emperor and Tsar tried do so during their Summer Cruise July 1905 but their Governments didn't want it.

I can't remember any French operations in the Pacific at this time and A-H have been out for a long time and working on matters in their orbit. France of course may join up in everything that France judge to be of its interest; very much so if will influence its current relationship with Germany!