stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 14, 2024 22:48:08 GMT
On Indomitable it was working up in the relatively safe - at the time - waters of the Caribbean. That process involved training the crew in the new ship and making sure the equipment was properly operating and can take some time. It was far from complete and it wasn't expected to be ready for service and sent east until the following spring. In this scenario you might get the war occurring before the accident in which case there would be a desire, especially by the politicians to rush things - just as with PoW during the Bismarck operation when she was sent into action with workmen aboard but your still got to arrange the trip, where they refuel and get supplies and all that sort of details. Also would they go west through Panama and across the Pacific or east across the Atlantic, round the Cape and across the Indian Ocean. I would assume the latter as that's where British bases that could support her were. That's different from crossing half the Pacific on a well planned single operation with all the details sorted out beforehand.
With Churchill it is probably unlikely but the comparison just came to my mind.
In terms of the Battle of the Atlantic its going to be a hell of a lot tougher here, especially if the USN drags its feet as OTL in defending its coastal shipping. An Operation Drumbeat here with a few more subs would be even more devastating.
WP doesn't know the details you mentioned. Hm. Could well be, that'd change things. But why do you imply that Britain had no bases to support her in the Pacific? What about Fiji, the Solomones, Tonga, Australia? And couldn't they use bases of friendly states (US, Dutch) either?
Other than that, I'm tweaking details about a possible Midway attack during the return from PH. Is one carrier enough, or would two be better? The Americans would have up to 20 planes, albeit older ones. (The good stuff went to Europe.) How many other ships should accompany them? I do think though that until the equivalent of the Midway battle, the destruction they'd cause would have been repaired - no "tipping point" reached here.
Furthermore, I'm thinking about the Near/Middle East. Let's say that Stalin will occupy Iran in January 1942. Secret diplomacy with the Brits follows. Bandar Shah renamed Kaliningrad. Iran gets a pro-Soviet puppet regime, with the Tudeh party and Mossadegh involved.
In Turkey, the winters tend to be rainy. Hence, an eventual attack might well start around March.
Oh, another tidbit: Since Arthur Percival became a German PoW at Dunkirk, in Singapore Lionel Bond has to stay a few months more at his post instead of retiring. Which has consequences for the spy literature: After the defeat, calling a spy hero "James Bond" is out. Whether Ian Fleming discovers this ornithologist or not.
(Unless you think the Brits would fly Percival and other generals out. But is this realistic? My first idea was only to evacuate Lord Gort and Edmund Ironside. - The latter didn't get around with Churchill, so this wouldn't necessarily be a win for Britain.)
Edit: I'll have to think what Bose will do ITTL either. I wouldn't mind him dying quickly or rotting in a British prison - but many things are possible. Maybe Bengal will become a state of its own? A three-way split of India somehow'd fit the three-way Cold War of TTL...
Britain's main naval base in the Pacific is at Singapore, which has been built at a fair amount of cost. Not sure what Australia could support without a considerable amount of work. - In the WWI period the HMAS Australia was the largest ship that Australia could support itself in terms of docking facilities and the like and I don't think things were greatly expanded in the intervening years. In 1941/42 it had some CA class units of ~10,000 tons but that was the limit. Fiji, Samoa and the like were relatively small backwaters militarily. - Part of the issue was that the change to oil fueled ships meant that a totally new set of facilities and stockpiles had to be built up to replace old coal stocks and this was only done in the main locations for reasons of costs. Also as ships got bigger and more sophisticated, with a lot more electronics for instance it needed bigger and more advanced facilities. For the Solomon's there was nothing militarily there until the Japanese started building an airfield on one island and that was the basis for the struggle that followed.
Yes Britain can use US bases to a degree but the US were relatively short of supplies in places like the Solomon's OTL, especially the fuel issue. Also that means adjusting to different sets of spares, ammo and the like or bring everything with them, which has a logistical burden of its own. There was actually an example of this with HMS Victorious which was transferred to operate with the USN in the Pacific from the end of 1942 for about 6 months as losses and damage meant the USN had only one operational CV in the Pacific, USS Saratoga - which won't be there in your TL of course, under the code name USS Robin. By this time the RN CV's were largely using US carrier aircraft so that helped a good bit with the spares and munitions and the crew were familiar with them.
However anyway at the start of the war here, if Indomitable avoids its OTL accident and is sent to the Far East its far more likely she would go east as the RN and Britain has the bases and also would be mainly concerned with the operations in Indian Ocean waters and its neighbourhood while the USN would have been operating from the Pacific side so it just made sense.
If the Japanese can arrange the fuel for an invasion of Midway then they will probably success assuming they have a similar or more successful Pearl operation but how long they can hold a small base so close to the main USN HQ in the Pacific and how costly it would be trying I would have to question. However even an initial failure as with Wake OTL is likely to mean that the operation would fail as how long could a small force operate in the region, especially if with 1 USN CV sunk that probably means there are a couple more about to challenge the Japanese.
Your comments about the Soviet occupation of Iran sounds a bit more like its an occupation Britain reluctantly accepts rather than opposes, i.e. outright conflict is avoided for the moment. Although that wouldn't last long as your snippet from Turkey shows.
Interesting snippet about Lionel Bond. Never heard of him before but sounds like he gave the surname to Fleming's character? A lot might depend on how things go. Malaya is still very likely to fall, especially given the worsened allied position although Bond does seem to have had a somewhat different strategy but whether Bond dies in combat or captivity it wouldn't necessarily rule out his surname being used if Fleming still writes his spy novels - although their likely to be somewhat grimmer and almost certainly mainly seen as opposing the Nazis.
In terms of India a lot depends on how things develop there. Your going to have the Soviets to the NW and the Japanese initially to the NE although I think they eventually get defeated so I can't see the Germans really getting a look in. Unless circumstances develop such that some ultra-nationalist such as Bose manages to gain power and seeks close links with Germany to avoid being under American influence - which does also assume that the US wouldn't oppose that. - As most likely would also the Soviets as it would flank and further expose their possessions in the Iran-ME region.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 15, 2024 0:47:38 GMT
1. Since Indomitable went to the Caribbean first, I'd have assumed that she'd cross the Pacific next. Otherwise, it'd be a huge detour - although that may be well justified, either because of facilities, or because of the German threat. 2. They don't invade Midway (yet), they just attacked it from air and sea, three days after PH. Taking it from 1,000 (OK, 900 after the attack) US Marines will need more resources than they have on the way back from PH. Maybe later, Yamamoto wants it after all. 3. Yes, Churchill is reluctant. But should he make war with the Soviets? That'd be outright crazy. As said, I don't want to suffer him the fate of Adolf Nazi, going crazy at the end when all of his plans failed. 4. No, James Bond is named after an ornithologist of this very name. This fellow. But ITTL, even if butterflies don't stop Fleming from stumbling over that name, he'll probably tell himself "Nah... I can't name him after the man who surrendered at Singapore!" 5. If Bose (and his brother) have a chance, it'll be in the post-war era when China becomes Communist (not 100% sure yet!), and there'll be a lot of turmoil. Who knows - maybe the Allies will rather start to play them off. Nazis and fascists against Soviets. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2024 13:26:24 GMT
1. Since Indomitable went to the Caribbean first, I'd have assumed that she'd cross the Pacific next. Otherwise, it'd be a huge detour - although that may be well justified, either because of facilities, or because of the German threat. 2. They don't invade Midway (yet), they just attacked it from air and sea, three days after PH. Taking it from 1,000 (OK, 900 after the attack) US Marines will need more resources than they have on the way back from PH. Maybe later, Yamamoto wants it after all. 3. Yes, Churchill is reluctant. But should he make war with the Soviets? That'd be outright crazy. As said, I don't want to suffer him the fate of Adolf Nazi, going crazy at the end when all of his plans failed. 4. No, James Bond is named after an ornithologist of this very name. This fellow. But ITTL, even if butterflies don't stop Fleming from stumbling over that name, he'll probably tell himself "Nah... I can't name him after the man who surrendered at Singapore!" 5. If Bose (and his brother) have a chance, it'll be in the post-war era when China becomes Communist (not 100% sure yet!), and there'll be a lot of turmoil. Who knows - maybe the Allies will rather start to play them off. Nazis and fascists against Soviets.
1) To quote from Indomitable's wiki entry
2) Ah thanks for clarifying. Yes in this case their likely to pound what forces and resources the US has on what's a pretty small island.
3) So there's basically a cold war type status between USSR and UK at the moment, although when the news reaches of the Soviet part in the partition of Turkey I would expect it becomes hot. If not before.
4) OK thanks.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 15, 2024 15:51:36 GMT
1. Since Indomitable went to the Caribbean first, I'd have assumed that she'd cross the Pacific next. Otherwise, it'd be a huge detour - although that may be well justified, either because of facilities, or because of the German threat. 2. They don't invade Midway (yet), they just attacked it from air and sea, three days after PH. Taking it from 1,000 (OK, 900 after the attack) US Marines will need more resources than they have on the way back from PH. Maybe later, Yamamoto wants it after all. 3. Yes, Churchill is reluctant. But should he make war with the Soviets? That'd be outright crazy. As said, I don't want to suffer him the fate of Adolf Nazi, going crazy at the end when all of his plans failed. 4. No, James Bond is named after an ornithologist of this very name. This fellow. But ITTL, even if butterflies don't stop Fleming from stumbling over that name, he'll probably tell himself "Nah... I can't name him after the man who surrendered at Singapore!" 5. If Bose (and his brother) have a chance, it'll be in the post-war era when China becomes Communist (not 100% sure yet!), and there'll be a lot of turmoil. Who knows - maybe the Allies will rather start to play them off. Nazis and fascists against Soviets.
5) - Sorry had to leave quickly.
On of China becomes communist its probably still likely as the allied position is worse and I assume the Burma road is still cut so the KMT are in at least as bad a position as OTL while Stalin, as a clear enemy of the western democracies could well switch support from the KMT to the Communists earlier. On the other hand with Stalin clearly an enemy and no need/desire to keep him friendly the US might be willing to continue supporting Chiang longer. However suspect they would still fail as their main concern would probably be the Nazis, who would see the strongest of the three blocs and with defeat - effectively - against them I suspect there would be little desire to support a long and difficult war in China, even if their only sending economic and military aid and not directly involved themselves.
In terms of India a lot depends on events in the preceding years. If the Soviets invade India, and especially if say they were to control the Indus valley, even only for a few years that would make them the most obvious threat to an independent India and it would look for allies. With the former imperial power exhausted if the US is seeking to cut its losses in Eurasia someone like Bose could well see the Nazis as the best allies - at least until they interact with them for a while perhaps. As such I could see India being aligned with either the west or the Nazis.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 17, 2024 21:45:50 GMT
1. Since Indomitable went to the Caribbean first, I'd have assumed that she'd cross the Pacific next. Otherwise, it'd be a huge detour - although that may be well justified, either because of facilities, or because of the German threat. 2. They don't invade Midway (yet), they just attacked it from air and sea, three days after PH. Taking it from 1,000 (OK, 900 after the attack) US Marines will need more resources than they have on the way back from PH. Maybe later, Yamamoto wants it after all. 3. Yes, Churchill is reluctant. But should he make war with the Soviets? That'd be outright crazy. As said, I don't want to suffer him the fate of Adolf Nazi, going crazy at the end when all of his plans failed. 4. No, James Bond is named after an ornithologist of this very name. This fellow. But ITTL, even if butterflies don't stop Fleming from stumbling over that name, he'll probably tell himself "Nah... I can't name him after the man who surrendered at Singapore!" 5. If Bose (and his brother) have a chance, it'll be in the post-war era when China becomes Communist (not 100% sure yet!), and there'll be a lot of turmoil. Who knows - maybe the Allies will rather start to play them off. Nazis and fascists against Soviets.
1) To quote from Indomitable's wiki entry
2) Ah thanks for clarifying. Yes in this case their likely to pound what forces and resources the US has on what's a pretty small island.
3) So there's basically a cold war type status between USSR and UK at the moment, although when the news reaches of the Soviet part in the partition of Turkey I would expect it becomes hot. If not before. OK, then there's just one more thing unclear about Indomitable: Did they plan from the start for her to go around the Cape of Good Hope, or did they change plans after PH? In the latter case my idea might still work, otherwise not.
Re: Turkey - they had an agreement with Britain and France, but after the Nazis published the plans for Operation Pike, they left it. Hence, they'll be lucky if Churchill will give them any help. And even then, it's not much, with the Empire being attacked everywhere around the world and many resources going to Operation Freedom. And who would have thought that Nazis and Soviets would ever cooperate to carve up Turkey (SCNR) anyway?
5. If Bose (and his brother) have a chance, it'll be in the post-war era when China becomes Communist (not 100% sure yet!), and there'll be a lot of turmoil. Who knows - maybe the Allies will rather start to play them off. Nazis and fascists against Soviets.
5) - Sorry had to leave quickly.
On of China becomes communist its probably still likely as the allied position is worse and I assume the Burma road is still cut so the KMT are in at least as bad a position as OTL while Stalin, as a clear enemy of the western democracies could well switch support from the KMT to the Communists earlier. On the other hand with Stalin clearly an enemy and no need/desire to keep him friendly the US might be willing to continue supporting Chiang longer. However suspect they would still fail as their main concern would probably be the Nazis, who would see the strongest of the three blocs and with defeat - effectively - against them I suspect there would be little desire to support a long and difficult war in China, even if their only sending economic and military aid and not directly involved themselves.
In terms of India a lot depends on events in the preceding years. If the Soviets invade India, and especially if say they were to control the Indus valley, even only for a few years that would make them the most obvious threat to an independent India and it would look for allies. With the former imperial power exhausted if the US is seeking to cut its losses in Eurasia someone like Bose could well see the Nazis as the best allies - at least until they interact with them for a while perhaps. As such I could see India being aligned with either the west or the Nazis.
So far I had decided that Gandhi and Nehru would be locked up in summer 1940 already, after India'd become rebellious after Dunkirk. After thinking about it, FDR would tell Churchill to better release Gandhi before he starves to death in prison (IOTL his wife Kasturba died in 1944 after being imprisoned in 1942). As early as on the ATL equivalent of their conference in DC. With a guarantee from the US about Indian independence, the Congress would be willing to side with Britain (for a last time) in the war. As a result, Indian independence would come somewhat earlier. 1946, '45, '44 even?
Churchill would hate it so much, but with Labour and the US pressing for it, he can't avoid it anymore.
Now let's take a look at Turkey.
They had enlarged their army from a peace strength of 200,000 to a million already, plus 500,000 reservists. Roughly half of it stood on Thrace. The bridges over river Maritza have been destroyed, and there's the Cakmak line along the Bulgarian border which supposedly is as strong as the Maginot line... oh crap.
On March 30th, the war begins. The Wehrmacht and the Bulgarians (maybe with the help of the Brandenburgers) make the first breakthrough in Thrace. The Turkish navy has been destroyed after three days, their air force even quicker. Half of the Turkish army is encircled in Thrace and defeated. The Nazis threaten to bomb Istanbul. Inönü asks them back whether they'll commit such a cultural crime while the world is watching. After the Luftwaffe bombs Izmir/Smyrna to rubble, he gives in though. Istanbu is declared an open city and occupied. Meanwhile, the Italians start landing at the Aegean coast. The Soviets have crossed the border, their fleet is landing at the Black Sea coast.
Now however, the bad state of the Turkish roads and railways (most are just one-track, parts in the northeast date back to the time of the Tsar) hampers the advancement of the strange alliance. Especially in the northwest, there's just one way beyond Eskişehir.
During this time, the Germans start to recruit a Kurdish legion among the prisoners of war. Now there's something you have to know about German trivial culture: Karl May (one of the "führer"'s favorite authors) wrote a book about 'wild Kurdistan', hence many Germans up to him have a soft spot for the country. Hence, the cooperation works surprisingly well, and the Nazis keep their new ally on a long leash. There are uprisings, and a Kurdish state is proclaimed in June, in the city of Diyarbakir (from now on, named Amed).
The mountain troops of Dietl and Schörner fight their way through the country to Ankara, with help from the Kurds. Inönü recommends the Turks to fight a guerilla war. The capital is threatened from three sides, and the Italians are advancing along the Southern coast too.
Oh, and since "Fall Schwarz" (new code name for the invasion) has been leaked (not even planned - some guys are just gabby) by Wehrmacht soldiers occupying former Soviet lands, Serbia, and Greece, some radical Orthodox are volunteering to "liberate" Tsargrad from "the Turk". Many cossacks and the captured general Vlasov join this crusade. Apropos, there's a fitting OTL quote from Şükrü Saracoğlu: "Ce n'est pas une guerre, c'est une croisade." There's definitely something to that ITTL!
During to fighting in Ankara, Inönü gets killed on June 24th - there's disagreement about which group is responsible. A satellite regime under Mahmut Celâlettin "Celâl" Bayar is created.
In July, the four invading powers (and thanks to the "führer", the Kurds as well) make a conference in Stambul to draw the new borders. Why the new name? The occupiers don't want to unnecessarily remind people that the Bosphorus metropolis still has a Turkish majority, but the Soviets would never agree to call it "Constantinople", let alone "Tsargrad", and "Byzantion/-um" would be hopelessly obscure, so they use "Stambul" as a compromise.
The result of the conference: - The Straits are put under control of the four invasion powers. Similar with Istanbul and Ankara, which are divided into sectors - yeah, like OTL Berlin and Vienna. In the latter cases, the Kurds get one sector each too.
- Kurdistan is acknowledged as a state. Effectively, it's a German satellite. It gets all the areas where at least 50% of the people claim(...) to be Kurdish, and includes the Turk-majority exclaves and the city of Alexandretta/Hatay/Xetay, to get access to the Med. General Alexander von Falkenhausen is sent there to organize their army. (Churchill comments: "The Germans are turning the Kurds into their Gurkhas!") His former duty of the occupation of Belgium and northern France is taken over by the former "Reichsprotektor" Heydrich. Yes, "the butcher of Prague". (Lacking Czech assassins after Dunkirk, he survived.)
- All of Eastern Thrace except for the Straits and the metropolis go to Bulgaria. As with the other annexed areas, the Jews are deported by the Nazis, and the population Bulgarianized.
- The Aegean coast with Izmir/Smyrna is given to the Hellenic State, hence indirectly to Italy. Italy also gets almost the whole Med coast plus its hinterland as an occupation zone.
- The SU gains not only the areas lost in WW1 (which are given to Georgia and Armenia), but some area west of it, which is organized as the Lazic ASSR, part of Georgia. This map shows the Lazic ASSR in pink, the part north of the orange line. The whole Asian Black Sea coast and its hinterland become occupied by the Soviets.
Of course there's militant Turkish resistance, but after the death of Inönü and the execution of Cakmak (whom the Kurds hate), it breaks apart into Communists, Kemalists, Islamists, and the ultra-nationalist/pan-Turkish "Grey Wolves" of Alparslan Türkes.
The Nazis do everything they can to strengthen their alliance with the Kurds. At Humboldt University in Berlin, a new institute for Kurdology is founded and named "Sultan-Saladin-Institut". It's purpose is training Germans who go there, streamlining the Kurdish dialects into a proper language, and indoctrinating the Kurdish students. The Kurdish community in Berlin even get their own mosque (second one in the city). In general, Islam gets more freedoms in the German- and Italian-occupied Turkey. (In Bulgaria, let alone the Soviet zone, of course not.) OTOH, the Nazis encourage all ethnic (esp. the Circassians for their "Aryan" looks) and religious minorities (Shiites, Alevites, Yesides) to divide the conquered people. (Just the opposite from the "Reich", yeah.)
Later in the year, the Turks will get a bit of revenge when one of them assassinates Papen on November 7th. His wife and daughters flee to Franco's Spain, later to Salazar's Portugal.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 17, 2024 22:35:55 GMT
1) To quote from Indomitable's wiki entry
2) Ah thanks for clarifying. Yes in this case their likely to pound what forces and resources the US has on what's a pretty small island.
3) So there's basically a cold war type status between USSR and UK at the moment, although when the news reaches of the Soviet part in the partition of Turkey I would expect it becomes hot. If not before. OK, then there's just one more thing unclear about Indomitable: Did they plan from the start for her to go around the Cape of Good Hope, or did they change plans after PH? In the latter case my idea might still work, otherwise not.
Re: Turkey - they had an agreement with Britain and France, but after the Nazis published the plans for Operation Pike, they left it. Hence, they'll be lucky if Churchill will give them any help. And even then, it's not much, with the Empire being attacked everywhere around the world and many resources going to Operation Freedom. And who would have thought that Nazis and Soviets would ever cooperate to carve up Turkey (SCNR) anyway?
5) - Sorry had to leave quickly.
On of China becomes communist its probably still likely as the allied position is worse and I assume the Burma road is still cut so the KMT are in at least as bad a position as OTL while Stalin, as a clear enemy of the western democracies could well switch support from the KMT to the Communists earlier. On the other hand with Stalin clearly an enemy and no need/desire to keep him friendly the US might be willing to continue supporting Chiang longer. However suspect they would still fail as their main concern would probably be the Nazis, who would see the strongest of the three blocs and with defeat - effectively - against them I suspect there would be little desire to support a long and difficult war in China, even if their only sending economic and military aid and not directly involved themselves.
In terms of India a lot depends on events in the preceding years. If the Soviets invade India, and especially if say they were to control the Indus valley, even only for a few years that would make them the most obvious threat to an independent India and it would look for allies. With the former imperial power exhausted if the US is seeking to cut its losses in Eurasia someone like Bose could well see the Nazis as the best allies - at least until they interact with them for a while perhaps. As such I could see India being aligned with either the west or the Nazis.
So far I had decided that Gandhi and Nehru would be locked up in summer 1940 already, after India'd become rebellious after Dunkirk. After thinking about it, FDR would tell Churchill to better release Gandhi before he starves to death in prison (IOTL his wife Kasturba died in 1944 after being imprisoned in 1942). As early as on the ATL equivalent of their conference in DC. With a guarantee from the US about Indian independence, the Congress would be willing to side with Britain (for a last time) in the war. As a result, Indian independence would come somewhat earlier. 1946, '45, '44 even?
Churchill would hate it so much, but with Labour and the US pressing for it, he can't avoid it anymore.
Now let's take a look at Turkey.
They had enlarged their army from a peace strength of 200,000 to a million already, plus 500,000 reservists. Roughly half of it stood on Thrace. The bridges over river Maritza have been destroyed, and there's the Cakmak line along the Bulgarian border which supposedly is as strong as the Maginot line... oh crap.
On March 30th, the war begins. The Wehrmacht and the Bulgarians (maybe with the help of the Brandenburgers) make the first breakthrough in Thrace. The Turkish navy has been destroyed after three days, their air force even quicker. Half of the Turkish army is encircled in Thrace and defeated. The Nazis threaten to bomb Istanbul. Inönü asks them back whether they'll commit such a cultural crime while the world is watching. After the Luftwaffe bombs Izmir/Smyrna to rubble, he gives in though. Istanbu is declared an open city and occupied. Meanwhile, the Italians start landing at the Aegean coast. The Soviets have crossed the border, their fleet is landing at the Black Sea coast.
Now however, the bad state of the Turkish roads and railways (most are just one-track, parts in the northeast date back to the time of the Tsar) hampers the advancement of the strange alliance. Especially in the northwest, there's just one way beyond Eskişehir.
During this time, the Germans start to recruit a Kurdish legion among the prisoners of war. Now there's something you have to know about German trivial culture: Karl May (one of the "führer"'s favorite authors) wrote a book about 'wild Kurdistan', hence many Germans up to him have a soft spot for the country. Hence, the cooperation works surprisingly well, and the Nazis keep their new ally on a long leash. There are uprisings, and a Kurdish state is proclaimed in June, in the city of Diyarbakir (from now on, named Amed).
The mountain troops of Dietl and Schörner fight their way through the country to Ankara, with help from the Kurds. Inönü recommends the Turks to fight a guerilla war. The capital is threatened from three sides, and the Italians are advancing along the Southern coast too.
Oh, and since "Fall Schwarz" (new code name for the invasion) has been leaked (not even planned - some guys are just gabby) by Wehrmacht soldiers occupying former Soviet lands, Serbia, and Greece, some radical Orthodox are volunteering to "liberate" Tsargrad from "the Turk". Many cossacks and the captured general Vlasov join this crusade. Apropos, there's a fitting OTL quote from Şükrü Saracoğlu: "Ce n'est pas une guerre, c'est une croisade." There's definitely something to that ITTL!
During to fighting in Ankara, Inönü gets killed on June 24th - there's disagreement about which group is responsible. A satellite regime under Mahmut Celâlettin "Celâl" Bayar is created.
In July, the four invading powers (and thanks to the "führer", the Kurds as well) make a conference in Stambul to draw the new borders. Why the new name? The occupiers don't want to unnecessarily remind people that the Bosphorus metropolis still has a Turkish majority, but the Soviets would never agree to call it "Constantinople", let alone "Tsargrad", and "Byzantion/-um" would be hopelessly obscure, so they use "Stambul" as a compromise.
The result of the conference: - The Straits are put under control of the four invasion powers. Similar with Istanbul and Ankara, which are divided into sectors - yeah, like OTL Berlin and Vienna. In the latter cases, the Kurds get one sector each too.
- Kurdistan is acknowledged as a state. Effectively, it's a German satellite. It gets all the areas where at least 50% of the people claim(...) to be Kurdish, and includes the Turk-majority exclaves and the city of Alexandretta/Hatay/Xetay, to get access to the Med. General Alexander von Falkenhausen is sent there to organize their army. (Churchill comments: "The Germans are turning the Kurds into their Gurkhas!") His former duty of the occupation of Belgium and northern France is taken over by the former "Reichsprotektor" Heydrich. Yes, "the butcher of Prague". (Lacking Czech assassins after Dunkirk, he survived.)
- All of Eastern Thrace except for the Straits and the metropolis go to Bulgaria. As with the other annexed areas, the Jews are deported by the Nazis, and the population Bulgarianized.
- The Aegean coast with Izmir/Smyrna is given to the Hellenic State, hence indirectly to Italy. Italy also gets almost the whole Med coast plus its hinterland as an occupation zone.
- The SU gains not only the areas lost in WW1 (which are given to Georgia and Armenia), but some area west of it, which is organized as the Lazic ASSR, part of Georgia. This map shows the Lazic ASSR in pink, the part north of the orange line. The whole Asian Black Sea coast and its hinterland become occupied by the Soviets.
Of course there's militant Turkish resistance, but after the death of Inönü and the execution of Cakmak (whom the Kurds hate), it breaks apart into Communists, Kemalists, Islamists, and the ultra-nationalist/pan-Turkish "Grey Wolves" of Alparslan Türkes.
The Nazis do everything they can to strengthen their alliance with the Kurds. At Humboldt University in Berlin, a new institute for Kurdology is founded and named "Sultan-Saladin-Institut". It's purpose is training Germans who go there, streamlining the Kurdish dialects into a proper language, and indoctrinating the Kurdish students. The Kurdish community in Berlin even get their own mosque (second one in the city). In general, Islam gets more freedoms in the German- and Italian-occupied Turkey. (In Bulgaria, let alone the Soviet zone, of course not.) OTOH, the Nazis encourage all ethnic (esp. the Circassians for their "Aryan" looks) and religious minorities (Shiites, Alevites, Yesides) to divide the conquered people. (Just the opposite from the "Reich", yeah.)
Later in the year, the Turks will get a bit of revenge when one of them assassinates Papen on November 7th. His wife and daughters flee to Franco's Spain, later to Salazar's Portugal.
I would say that the plan would be to go via Good Hope from the start. Apart from the fact the route can use British bases do remember that until Japan actually strikes the US is formally neutral so not much use going via the Pacific as they would have to cross the entire ocean and either go south of Australia or run perilously close to Japanese mandated territories to reach their planned deployment area at Singapore.
Churchill would definitely hate having conceded independence but in this desperate situation even he would probably accept it, albeit in poor grace. You could have interesting questions here about whether Congress - the Indian party but possibly also the US government/congress would consider Muslim claims for a separate nation which could complicate matters?
Actually do remember that the Germans didn't breach the Maginot line but went around it. I doubt the Turkish defences would be anything like as sophisticated but until they run out of supplies there is likely to be some bloody tough fighting. Further east those poor logistics are very likely to be worsened by sabotage operations and a lot of hit and run operations in the hills and mountains. Britain is likely to offer what aid it can, although that won't be a lot, as better to help the Turks fight in their country and weaken Axis supply lines for when Axis forces do reach the plains of the Levant. - I think you said Vichy Syria hasn't been occupied yet but its likely to be here, for a similar reason.
With Stambul I suspect that the Turks there are likely to be 'encouraged' to leave for Anatolia. Which I think other than occupying forces would leave the Greeks in the majority although the population would be considerably reduced in numbers and prior to the surrender - especially if a puppet Greek state - which wasn't created OTL as the country was imply occupied and split up into assorted zones of occupation has taken part in the invasion - a lot of Greeks could end up dead! - The region has a long history of massacres dating back centuries and I doubt this would change much. Going to be interesting with the 4 power control of the city as I can't see the Soviets getting on at all well with the other three.
Pity about Papen as he doesn't deserve that fate.
So Heydrich gets moved to Belgium, which is probably not good for the locals there.
I would have suspected that Vlasov wouldn't be alive here. Hitler never wanted even a token 'Free Russian' force and Stalin will want him very dead so I would have expected he would have been handed over at the peace settlement between the two powers. Hitler would see it as no cost and Stalin would want such a prominent rebel out of the way. - Actually Vlasov only deserted OTL in spring 42 after the mess of the last stages of the Soviet counter-offensives so he could well still be a loyal communist here.
That the Soviets have made a pretty much open agreement with the Axis to carve up Turkey will mean that the allies will see them as de-facto allies so even through there will be a lot of mistrust between the Soviets and assorted fascists that's the way the allies will probably react.
Anyway getting late here so leave it at that.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 18, 2024 0:35:31 GMT
Just one thing, stevep : ITTL Vlasov was captured in the encirclement battle of Kiev. Not changing that would have been a beginner's mistake. Later more. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 18, 2024 16:41:14 GMT
Just one thing, stevep : ITTL Vlasov was captured in the encirclement battle of Kiev. Not changing that would have been a beginner's mistake. Later more.
OK thanks. Hadn't realised that. Still think he's more likely to be sacrificed by Hitler to Stalin at the peace settlement. Quite possibly with some other deserters/defectors on both sides.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 21, 2024 3:11:16 GMT
OK, then there's just one more thing unclear about Indomitable: Did they plan from the start for her to go around the Cape of Good Hope, or did they change plans after PH? In the latter case my idea might still work, otherwise not.
Re: Turkey - they had an agreement with Britain and France, but after the Nazis published the plans for Operation Pike, they left it. Hence, they'll be lucky if Churchill will give them any help. And even then, it's not much, with the Empire being attacked everywhere around the world and many resources going to Operation Freedom. And who would have thought that Nazis and Soviets would ever cooperate to carve up Turkey (SCNR) anyway?
So far I had decided that Gandhi and Nehru would be locked up in summer 1940 already, after India'd become rebellious after Dunkirk. After thinking about it, FDR would tell Churchill to better release Gandhi before he starves to death in prison (IOTL his wife Kasturba died in 1944 after being imprisoned in 1942). As early as on the ATL equivalent of their conference in DC. With a guarantee from the US about Indian independence, the Congress would be willing to side with Britain (for a last time) in the war. As a result, Indian independence would come somewhat earlier. 1946, '45, '44 even?
Churchill would hate it so much, but with Labour and the US pressing for it, he can't avoid it anymore.
Now let's take a look at Turkey.
They had enlarged their army from a peace strength of 200,000 to a million already, plus 500,000 reservists. Roughly half of it stood on Thrace. The bridges over river Maritza have been destroyed, and there's the Cakmak line along the Bulgarian border which supposedly is as strong as the Maginot line... oh crap.
On March 30th, the war begins. The Wehrmacht and the Bulgarians (maybe with the help of the Brandenburgers) make the first breakthrough in Thrace. The Turkish navy has been destroyed after three days, their air force even quicker. Half of the Turkish army is encircled in Thrace and defeated. The Nazis threaten to bomb Istanbul. Inönü asks them back whether they'll commit such a cultural crime while the world is watching. After the Luftwaffe bombs Izmir/Smyrna to rubble, he gives in though. Istanbu is declared an open city and occupied. Meanwhile, the Italians start landing at the Aegean coast. The Soviets have crossed the border, their fleet is landing at the Black Sea coast.
Now however, the bad state of the Turkish roads and railways (most are just one-track, parts in the northeast date back to the time of the Tsar) hampers the advancement of the strange alliance. Especially in the northwest, there's just one way beyond Eskişehir.
During this time, the Germans start to recruit a Kurdish legion among the prisoners of war. Now there's something you have to know about German trivial culture: Karl May (one of the "führer"'s favorite authors) wrote a book about 'wild Kurdistan', hence many Germans up to him have a soft spot for the country. Hence, the cooperation works surprisingly well, and the Nazis keep their new ally on a long leash. There are uprisings, and a Kurdish state is proclaimed in June, in the city of Diyarbakir (from now on, named Amed).
The mountain troops of Dietl and Schörner fight their way through the country to Ankara, with help from the Kurds. Inönü recommends the Turks to fight a guerilla war. The capital is threatened from three sides, and the Italians are advancing along the Southern coast too.
Oh, and since "Fall Schwarz" (new code name for the invasion) has been leaked (not even planned - some guys are just gabby) by Wehrmacht soldiers occupying former Soviet lands, Serbia, and Greece, some radical Orthodox are volunteering to "liberate" Tsargrad from "the Turk". Many cossacks and the captured general Vlasov join this crusade. Apropos, there's a fitting OTL quote from Şükrü Saracoğlu: "Ce n'est pas une guerre, c'est une croisade." There's definitely something to that ITTL!
During to fighting in Ankara, Inönü gets killed on June 24th - there's disagreement about which group is responsible. A satellite regime under Mahmut Celâlettin "Celâl" Bayar is created.
In July, the four invading powers (and thanks to the "führer", the Kurds as well) make a conference in Stambul to draw the new borders. Why the new name? The occupiers don't want to unnecessarily remind people that the Bosphorus metropolis still has a Turkish majority, but the Soviets would never agree to call it "Constantinople", let alone "Tsargrad", and "Byzantion/-um" would be hopelessly obscure, so they use "Stambul" as a compromise.
The result of the conference: - The Straits are put under control of the four invasion powers. Similar with Istanbul and Ankara, which are divided into sectors - yeah, like OTL Berlin and Vienna. In the latter cases, the Kurds get one sector each too.
- Kurdistan is acknowledged as a state. Effectively, it's a German satellite. It gets all the areas where at least 50% of the people claim(...) to be Kurdish, and includes the Turk-majority exclaves and the city of Alexandretta/Hatay/Xetay, to get access to the Med. General Alexander von Falkenhausen is sent there to organize their army. (Churchill comments: "The Germans are turning the Kurds into their Gurkhas!") His former duty of the occupation of Belgium and northern France is taken over by the former "Reichsprotektor" Heydrich. Yes, "the butcher of Prague". (Lacking Czech assassins after Dunkirk, he survived.)
- All of Eastern Thrace except for the Straits and the metropolis go to Bulgaria. As with the other annexed areas, the Jews are deported by the Nazis, and the population Bulgarianized.
- The Aegean coast with Izmir/Smyrna is given to the Hellenic State, hence indirectly to Italy. Italy also gets almost the whole Med coast plus its hinterland as an occupation zone.
- The SU gains not only the areas lost in WW1 (which are given to Georgia and Armenia), but some area west of it, which is organized as the Lazic ASSR, part of Georgia. This map shows the Lazic ASSR in pink, the part north of the orange line. The whole Asian Black Sea coast and its hinterland become occupied by the Soviets.
Of course there's militant Turkish resistance, but after the death of Inönü and the execution of Cakmak (whom the Kurds hate), it breaks apart into Communists, Kemalists, Islamists, and the ultra-nationalist/pan-Turkish "Grey Wolves" of Alparslan Türkes.
The Nazis do everything they can to strengthen their alliance with the Kurds. At Humboldt University in Berlin, a new institute for Kurdology is founded and named "Sultan-Saladin-Institut". It's purpose is training Germans who go there, streamlining the Kurdish dialects into a proper language, and indoctrinating the Kurdish students. The Kurdish community in Berlin even get their own mosque (second one in the city). In general, Islam gets more freedoms in the German- and Italian-occupied Turkey. (In Bulgaria, let alone the Soviet zone, of course not.) OTOH, the Nazis encourage all ethnic (esp. the Circassians for their "Aryan" looks) and religious minorities (Shiites, Alevites, Yesides) to divide the conquered people. (Just the opposite from the "Reich", yeah.)
Later in the year, the Turks will get a bit of revenge when one of them assassinates Papen on November 7th. His wife and daughters flee to Franco's Spain, later to Salazar's Portugal.
I would say that the plan would be to go via Good Hope from the start. Apart from the fact the route can use British bases do remember that until Japan actually strikes the US is formally neutral so not much use going via the Pacific as they would have to cross the entire ocean and either go south of Australia or run perilously close to Japanese mandated territories to reach their planned deployment area at Singapore.
Churchill would definitely hate having conceded independence but in this desperate situation even he would probably accept it, albeit in poor grace. You could have interesting questions here about whether Congress - the Indian party but possibly also the US government/congress would consider Muslim claims for a separate nation which could complicate matters?
Actually do remember that the Germans didn't breach the Maginot line but went around it. I doubt the Turkish defences would be anything like as sophisticated but until they run out of supplies there is likely to be some bloody tough fighting. Further east those poor logistics are very likely to be worsened by sabotage operations and a lot of hit and run operations in the hills and mountains. Britain is likely to offer what aid it can, although that won't be a lot, as better to help the Turks fight in their country and weaken Axis supply lines for when Axis forces do reach the plains of the Levant. - I think you said Vichy Syria hasn't been occupied yet but its likely to be here, for a similar reason.
With Stambul I suspect that the Turks there are likely to be 'encouraged' to leave for Anatolia. Which I think other than occupying forces would leave the Greeks in the majority although the population would be considerably reduced in numbers and prior to the surrender - especially if a puppet Greek state - which wasn't created OTL as the country was imply occupied and split up into assorted zones of occupation has taken part in the invasion - a lot of Greeks could end up dead! - The region has a long history of massacres dating back centuries and I doubt this would change much. Going to be interesting with the 4 power control of the city as I can't see the Soviets getting on at all well with the other three.
Pity about Papen as he doesn't deserve that fate.
So Heydrich gets moved to Belgium, which is probably not good for the locals there.
I would have suspected that Vlasov wouldn't be alive here. Hitler never wanted even a token 'Free Russian' force and Stalin will want him very dead so I would have expected he would have been handed over at the peace settlement between the two powers. Hitler would see it as no cost and Stalin would want such a prominent rebel out of the way. - Actually Vlasov only deserted OTL in spring 42 after the mess of the last stages of the Soviet counter-offensives so he could well still be a loyal communist here.
That the Soviets have made a pretty much open agreement with the Axis to carve up Turkey will mean that the allies will see them as de-facto allies so even through there will be a lot of mistrust between the Soviets and assorted fascists that's the way the allies will probably react.
Anyway getting late here so leave it at that.
I may research Indomitable later, when I'll do the submarine war, I'll have to do that anyway.
The Muslims supported the Empire during the "Quit India" movement. But they already had plans to make Pakistan (with Bangladesh) a nation, too. I once read BTW that the ambitious mayor of Calcutta from that time in fact thought about joining Pakistan - so his metropolis might become its capital! Wonder whether that might happen.
Yes, at first the Wehrmacht went around the Maginot line - but later, they actually broke through it here and there. At that time, French morale already was pretty broken, that'll have been a factor.
As soon as the G.I.s will enter the Middle East, taking Syria is a definite possibility. But the troop transports will take some time, esp. with the war in the Pacific having started, and Operation Freedom being prepared. Protecting the Gulf oil will be priority #1 for Eisenhower (because it's him who'll be there).
Why should they kick out the Turks from "Stambul"?
For his deeds during the Turkey crisis, Papen didn't deserve death. For something else, that's a different question... And what do you think about Inönü's death?
About Vlasov and other Soviet PoWs: Would the Soviets actually know that he's a German PoW? Did the Nazis announce it to the world whenever they captured a Soviet general? I seriously don't know. Anyway, B-L 2 would include an agreement about the return of Soviet PoWs. Of the 4 to 5 millions, less than half will actually return... Stalin would have sent all of them to the Gulag anyway.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 21, 2024 11:19:42 GMT
I would say that the plan would be to go via Good Hope from the start. Apart from the fact the route can use British bases do remember that until Japan actually strikes the US is formally neutral so not much use going via the Pacific as they would have to cross the entire ocean and either go south of Australia or run perilously close to Japanese mandated territories to reach their planned deployment area at Singapore.
Churchill would definitely hate having conceded independence but in this desperate situation even he would probably accept it, albeit in poor grace. You could have interesting questions here about whether Congress - the Indian party but possibly also the US government/congress would consider Muslim claims for a separate nation which could complicate matters?
Actually do remember that the Germans didn't breach the Maginot line but went around it. I doubt the Turkish defences would be anything like as sophisticated but until they run out of supplies there is likely to be some bloody tough fighting. Further east those poor logistics are very likely to be worsened by sabotage operations and a lot of hit and run operations in the hills and mountains. Britain is likely to offer what aid it can, although that won't be a lot, as better to help the Turks fight in their country and weaken Axis supply lines for when Axis forces do reach the plains of the Levant. - I think you said Vichy Syria hasn't been occupied yet but its likely to be here, for a similar reason.
With Stambul I suspect that the Turks there are likely to be 'encouraged' to leave for Anatolia. Which I think other than occupying forces would leave the Greeks in the majority although the population would be considerably reduced in numbers and prior to the surrender - especially if a puppet Greek state - which wasn't created OTL as the country was imply occupied and split up into assorted zones of occupation has taken part in the invasion - a lot of Greeks could end up dead! - The region has a long history of massacres dating back centuries and I doubt this would change much. Going to be interesting with the 4 power control of the city as I can't see the Soviets getting on at all well with the other three.
Pity about Papen as he doesn't deserve that fate.
So Heydrich gets moved to Belgium, which is probably not good for the locals there.
I would have suspected that Vlasov wouldn't be alive here. Hitler never wanted even a token 'Free Russian' force and Stalin will want him very dead so I would have expected he would have been handed over at the peace settlement between the two powers. Hitler would see it as no cost and Stalin would want such a prominent rebel out of the way. - Actually Vlasov only deserted OTL in spring 42 after the mess of the last stages of the Soviet counter-offensives so he could well still be a loyal communist here.
That the Soviets have made a pretty much open agreement with the Axis to carve up Turkey will mean that the allies will see them as de-facto allies so even through there will be a lot of mistrust between the Soviets and assorted fascists that's the way the allies will probably react.
Anyway getting late here so leave it at that.
I may research Indomitable later, when I'll do the submarine war, I'll have to do that anyway.
The Muslims supported the Empire during the "Quit India" movement. But they already had plans to make Pakistan (with Bangladesh) a nation, too. I once read BTW that the ambitious mayor of Calcutta from that time in fact thought about joining Pakistan - so his metropolis might become its capital! Wonder whether that might happen.
Yes, at first the Wehrmacht went around the Maginot line - but later, they actually broke through it here and there. At that time, French morale already was pretty broken, that'll have been a factor.
As soon as the G.I.s will enter the Middle East, taking Syria is a definite possibility. But the troop transports will take some time, esp. with the war in the Pacific having started, and Operation Freedom being prepared. Protecting the Gulf oil will be priority #1 for Eisenhower (because it's him who'll be there).
Why should they kick out the Turks from "Stambul"?
For his deeds during the Turkey crisis, Papen didn't deserve death. For something else, that's a different question... And what do you think about Inönü's death?
About Vlasov and other Soviet PoWs: Would the Soviets actually know that he's a German PoW? Did the Nazis announce it to the world whenever they captured a Soviet general? I seriously don't know. Anyway, B-L 2 would include an agreement about the return of Soviet PoWs. Of the 4 to 5 millions, less than half will actually return... Stalin would have sent all of them to the Gulag anyway.
IIRC there was a concern about partition in the Bengal region with groups from both communities opposing it because there was a strong regional identity there and also it was an economic unit so there was an incentive for maintaining this. That might have been a factor in the idea of Bengal as a whole being part of Pakistan. It would definitely be the most economically and demographically important part of such a Pakistan. It would however mean that Pakistan would be less of a Muslim state which would cause tension on both sides so how practical it would be.
In terms of the ME the oil would be important, although much of it outside Iran is in northern Iraq so it would be threatened both by the Soviets coming west and the Axis coming east from Turkey. Holding the area would best be done by keeping the enemy in the better defensive terrain, which would mean in the west the highlands of eastern Anatolia. To do this you need to enter Syria before the Germans do, Vichy will - with a bit of pressure - undoubtedly invite them in. Eisenhower, if the US commander will have input but the British will have a big say as well as its territory they control and have infrastructure in and unless there's been drastic changes in US mobilization - with much higher priority to the ground forces which seems unlikely - the British will have the majority of the forces. Also as you say it would take time from the US being involved in the war for men, equipment and transport to be organised and shipped to the war front. Plus until there is open war with the Soviets - which might not come from their occupation of Iran - but will with the joint invasion of Turkey the US might not see the region as a priority compared to actual shooting wars in the Pacific and Africa.
I think between unrest from the large Turkish majority in the city - plus the need to feed them if they stay there - its likely that the sort of ethnic cleaning that the Nazis did elsewhere would be pretty likely.
Its a tragic end for Inonu. Also for his people.
I was assuming that as OTL he had publicly come out in calling for the overthrow of Stalin [and also the communists] and the Nazis had made it public, which would definitely make him a high priority 'traitor' to be removed. If he hasn't I would think that Stalin would still want all the POWs back and that many of them, because they include many trained military manpower and with the continued tension with Germany a lot of the rank and file might not end up going to the gulag as OTL. However I would suspect there is likely to be at least some officer purge, in part Stalin's paranoia and also a need to have a guilty party to excuse the disastrous defeat.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 21, 2024 19:36:33 GMT
Good, now let's continue. At first a quote I invented for B-L 2 (from a fictional fellow born into a Trotskyist family who'd later turn to the Right, like some from OTL who became Neoliberals/-conservatives): As said, the Nazis gave Kurdistan independence - that is, as their satellite. Even if with somewhat more freedom. Now of course the Kurds want their diaspora to join them. Which is a bit tricky because the Persian Kurds are in the Soviet sphere now. Uprisings there happen, some Soviet soldiers even are killed. It seems for a short time that the unlikely Nazi-Soviet alliance may fall apart. (At least, the free world hopes so.) Also, the Japanese are miffed that the "führer" is willing to hand over India to Stalin - as said, in May 1942 the Japanese crossed the Burmese border. To Stalin's surprise, the "führer" gives in and is willing to revise their peace treaty: Eastern Ukraine (without Taurida) is given back to the Soviet Union. Not immediately, the Germans will retreat in piecemeal until mid-1943. (At this time, the Wehrmacht already retreated from the area between Volkhov river and the Baltic states, as agreed in the treaty.) In return, the Soviet Union will give the Iranian provinces of Kurdistan, western Azerbaijan, Ilam, Lorestan, Kermanshah, the Iranian remains of Khuzestan, and part of Hamadan and the province of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiyari to the Kurds. Also, Bengal (which isn't conquered yet...) changes to the Japanese sphere of influence, and the Soviet Union will deliver some more million tons of coal and grain. The Kurds living under the Soviet regime (e.g. in Caucasia) are allowed to emigrate to their new state.
Stalin is somewhat surprised that the Germans are willing to give back the very real Eastern Ukraine in return for Bengal which the Japanese have barely entered, but he doesn't mind.
After this, the unlikely Nazi-Soviet alliance not only lives on, but even seems strengthened.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 28, 2024 22:14:13 GMT
As said, I'm currently working on the Battle of the Atlantic. This will become a last necessary step - the Nazis have no other feasible way to defeat Britain, and unless Britain is willing to stop making war on the "Reich", the US won't either. If I can't do this, the war will go on until the WAllies find a way to project enough power. (As hard as that is, if you need five soldiers to support one GI fighting in overseas.) Trying to attack the Axis from the Middle East/Egypt and Dakar in 1943; maybe victorious in MENA in 1944; then, Italy and France in 1945... sounds like a nightmare. And even if it'd make an interesting TL, it's not the one I want to write right now. This leads to the question: How can I hamper the WAllies' effort to defend against German subs? Other states will be necessary for fighting the wolfpacks. I've thought about it and don't think it's improbable that Mexico and Brazil will deny the US bases to fight against submarines. After all, after B-L 2 the Axis look much stronger, and the LatAms may well say "OK, if Operation Freedom is a success, we'll join you". Then it fails, as said... And Salazar waited for a long time until he helped the WAllies that way - but allowed the Axis to use his islands for refueling instead before. I've decided that Brazil won't enter the war against Germany and Italy at all. No " smoking cobras".
Also, I've randomly decided that in autumn/fall 1941, German subs will sink two US destroyers and damage a third one. But that's not decisive, since they'll go to war in December anyway.
But for something different, even if it comes late: Is it realistic if diverse British commanders are evacuated from Dunkirk because you still need them (I thought of Lord Gort, Ironside, and John Dill), or should they rather go down with the sinking ship?
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Sept 29, 2024 12:33:59 GMT
As said, I'm currently working on the Battle of the Atlantic. This will become a last necessary step - the Nazis have no other feasible way to defeat Britain, and unless Britain is willing to stop making war on the "Reich", the US won't either. If I can't do this, the war will go on until the WAllies find a way to project enough power. (As hard as that is, if you need five soldiers to support one GI fighting in overseas.) Trying to attack the Axis from the Middle East/Egypt and Dakar in 1943; maybe victorious in MENA in 1944; then, Italy and France in 1945... sounds like a nightmare. And even if it'd make an interesting TL, it's not the one I want to write right now. This leads to the question: How can I hamper the WAllies' effort to defend against German subs? Other states will be necessary for fighting the wolfpacks. I've thought about it and don't think it's improbable that Mexico and Brazil will deny the US bases to fight against submarines. After all, after B-L 2 the Axis look much stronger, and the LatAms may well say "OK, if Operation Freedom is a success, we'll join you". Then it fails, as said... And Salazar waited for a long time until he helped the WAllies that way - but allowed the Axis to use his islands for refueling instead before. I've decided that Brazil won't enter the war against Germany and Italy at all. No " smoking cobras".
Also, I've randomly decided that in autumn/fall 1941, German subs will sink two US destroyers and damage a third one. But that's not decisive, since they'll go to war in December anyway.
But for something different, even if it comes late: Is it realistic if diverse British commanders are evacuated from Dunkirk because you still need them (I thought of Lord Gort, Ironside, and John Dill), or should they rather go down with the sinking ship?
On the last point possibly the biggest name that would be missing if the officers failed to escape would be a certain Montgomery.
In terms of the Germans winning the U boat war I can think of a few ideas,
a) Germans become aware of the snorkel earlier. Apparently it was sitting in fairly open view on a Dutch sub for 2-3 years in the occupied Netherlands before they did so if it happened earlier.
b) The US takes even longer to sort itself out in terms of ASW measures off its coastline and in the Caribbean. Possibly not unlikely with things going worse in the Pacific and the USN going even more rogue. If the Japanese did take Midway as well as losing Wake and Guam and having the Philippines doomed this isn't even more possible. Also due to losses and the issue of ranges involved only a few subs were actually in place for Operation Drumbeat at any one time. Increase that by a few and its even more devastating.
c) Hitler is persuaded to support subs earlier and with more effort. Possibly Bismarck and Prince Eugen both go down in Denmark Straits and say something nasty happens to Tirpitz then he's even more enraged at the surface navy and Donitz replaces Raeder earlier. Plus once victory is achieved over the Soviets then there's a lot more resources to throw against the Atlantic lifeline.
d) Some butterflies persuades Franco to support the Nazis, openly up their bases for naval and air operations against the allied navies. They will probably lose the Canaries as a result but its still potentially very dangerous for the allies.
e) Churchill pays even less attention to the Battle of the Atlantic than OTL.
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 2, 2024 5:35:36 GMT
As said, I'm currently working on the Battle of the Atlantic. This will become a last necessary step - the Nazis have no other feasible way to defeat Britain, and unless Britain is willing to stop making war on the "Reich", the US won't either. If I can't do this, the war will go on until the WAllies find a way to project enough power. (As hard as that is, if you need five soldiers to support one GI fighting in overseas.) Trying to attack the Axis from the Middle East/Egypt and Dakar in 1943; maybe victorious in MENA in 1944; then, Italy and France in 1945... sounds like a nightmare. And even if it'd make an interesting TL, it's not the one I want to write right now. This leads to the question: How can I hamper the WAllies' effort to defend against German subs? Other states will be necessary for fighting the wolfpacks. I've thought about it and don't think it's improbable that Mexico and Brazil will deny the US bases to fight against submarines. After all, after B-L 2 the Axis look much stronger, and the LatAms may well say "OK, if Operation Freedom is a success, we'll join you". Then it fails, as said... And Salazar waited for a long time until he helped the WAllies that way - but allowed the Axis to use his islands for refueling instead before. I've decided that Brazil won't enter the war against Germany and Italy at all. No " smoking cobras".
Also, I've randomly decided that in autumn/fall 1941, German subs will sink two US destroyers and damage a third one. But that's not decisive, since they'll go to war in December anyway.
But for something different, even if it comes late: Is it realistic if diverse British commanders are evacuated from Dunkirk because you still need them (I thought of Lord Gort, Ironside, and John Dill), or should they rather go down with the sinking ship?
On the last point possibly the biggest name that would be missing if the officers failed to escape would be a certain Montgomery.
In terms of the Germans winning the U boat war I can think of a few ideas,
a) Germans become aware of the snorkel earlier. Apparently it was sitting in fairly open view on a Dutch sub for 2-3 years in the occupied Netherlands before they did so if it happened earlier.
b) The US takes even longer to sort itself out in terms of ASW measures off its coastline and in the Caribbean. Possibly not unlikely with things going worse in the Pacific and the USN going even more rogue. If the Japanese did take Midway as well as losing Wake and Guam and having the Philippines doomed this isn't even more possible. Also due to losses and the issue of ranges involved only a few subs were actually in place for Operation Drumbeat at any one time. Increase that by a few and its even more devastating.
c) Hitler is persuaded to support subs earlier and with more effort. Possibly Bismarck and Prince Eugen both go down in Denmark Straits and say something nasty happens to Tirpitz then he's even more enraged at the surface navy and Donitz replaces Raeder earlier. Plus once victory is achieved over the Soviets then there's a lot more resources to throw against the Atlantic lifeline.
d) Some butterflies persuades Franco to support the Nazis, openly up their bases for naval and air operations against the allied navies. They will probably lose the Canaries as a result but its still potentially very dangerous for the allies.
e) Churchill pays even less attention to the Battle of the Atlantic than OTL.
Alan Brooke, who'd become the most important Military advisor of Winston Churchill in OTL
Noel Mason-MacFarlane, responsible for military intelligence at the BEF, who'd become Governor of Gibraltar in OTL
Harold Alexander, who'd fight in Burma and Northern Africa
Chief of Staff Henry Pownall, who'd later serve under Wavell and Mountbatten in OTL
Ronald Forbes Adam, a good Organisator
Giffard Le Quesne Martel, who passed on valuable experiences with German Panzers to the other Brits
William Holmes, who fought in Syria and Northern Africa
Kenneth Anderson, who participated in Operation Torch in OTL...
Other famous commanders like Bernard Montgomery and Arthur Percival
The Heydrich assassins from OTL, Jozef Gabčík and Jan Kubiš.
Regarding submarine warfare: a. Correct, the snorkel would help a lot. Not sure whether I should include it. After all, they didn't discover it during OTL, and they'd need time to implement it. Hellmuth Walter mentioned them to Dönitz verbally on March 2nd, 1943 and later that year on May 19th in writing. The Nazis apparently had ignored the idea (the Italians had too BTW, but they didn't build subs which had them!) because they thought the snorkel was useless. There are many waves in the Atlantic, water might go through the snorkel. Walter had the idea to close the snorkel when waves happened. Even so, it took more than one year until they had subs with working snorkels. And they were slow when using it, just about six knots. That's why I'm not sure whether to use this. b. Not sure... if you think about it, this seems to be a mass-PoD, so to speak. Because you'll need to change not the behavior of one person, but of many. Sure the morale of the US will be worse if they don't have the SU as an ally, but they should still have a functioning will to survive. c. Earlier in this thread I mentioned Raeder being fired after Gneisenau and Scharnhorst are lost due to butterflies. Yes, short-time loss for the Nazis, but in the long run, a win. d. He might allow them to get fuel in Spanish harbors, but no more. I thought up the possibility that he'll make very reluctantly war against Britain, but only to take Gibraltar, and only after being convinced by Canaris. e. Why should Churchill have paid little attention to it? IOTL he said (afterwards, but still) that it was the German subs which gave him nightmares, and nothing else. And he'd be correct about this, because the subs seem to be the only way for the "Reich" to really hurt Britain.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Oct 2, 2024 14:58:51 GMT
On the last point possibly the biggest name that would be missing if the officers failed to escape would be a certain Montgomery.
In terms of the Germans winning the U boat war I can think of a few ideas,
a) Germans become aware of the snorkel earlier. Apparently it was sitting in fairly open view on a Dutch sub for 2-3 years in the occupied Netherlands before they did so if it happened earlier.
b) The US takes even longer to sort itself out in terms of ASW measures off its coastline and in the Caribbean. Possibly not unlikely with things going worse in the Pacific and the USN going even more rogue. If the Japanese did take Midway as well as losing Wake and Guam and having the Philippines doomed this isn't even more possible. Also due to losses and the issue of ranges involved only a few subs were actually in place for Operation Drumbeat at any one time. Increase that by a few and its even more devastating.
c) Hitler is persuaded to support subs earlier and with more effort. Possibly Bismarck and Prince Eugen both go down in Denmark Straits and say something nasty happens to Tirpitz then he's even more enraged at the surface navy and Donitz replaces Raeder earlier. Plus once victory is achieved over the Soviets then there's a lot more resources to throw against the Atlantic lifeline.
d) Some butterflies persuades Franco to support the Nazis, openly up their bases for naval and air operations against the allied navies. They will probably lose the Canaries as a result but its still potentially very dangerous for the allies.
e) Churchill pays even less attention to the Battle of the Atlantic than OTL.
Alan Brooke, who'd become the most important Military advisor of Winston Churchill in OTL
Noel Mason-MacFarlane, responsible for military intelligence at the BEF, who'd become Governor of Gibraltar in OTL
Harold Alexander, who'd fight in Burma and Northern Africa
Chief of Staff Henry Pownall, who'd later serve under Wavell and Mountbatten in OTL
Ronald Forbes Adam, a good Organisator
Giffard Le Quesne Martel, who passed on valuable experiences with German Panzers to the other Brits
William Holmes, who fought in Syria and Northern Africa
Kenneth Anderson, who participated in Operation Torch in OTL...
Other famous commanders like Bernard Montgomery and Arthur Percival
The Heydrich assassins from OTL, Jozef Gabčík and Jan Kubiš.
Regarding submarine warfare: a. Correct, the snorkel would help a lot. Not sure whether I should include it. After all, they didn't discover it during OTL, and they'd need time to implement it. Hellmuth Walter mentioned them to Dönitz verbally on March 2nd, 1943 and later that year on May 19th in writing. The Nazis apparently had ignored the idea (the Italians had too BTW, but they didn't build subs which had them!) because they thought the snorkel was useless. There are many waves in the Atlantic, water might go through the snorkel. Walter had the idea to close the snorkel when waves happened. Even so, it took more than one year until they had subs with working snorkels. And they were slow when using it, just about six knots. That's why I'm not sure whether to use this. b. Not sure... if you think about it, this seems to be a mass-PoD, so to speak. Because you'll need to change not the behavior of one person, but of many. Sure the morale of the US will be worse if they don't have the SU as an ally, but they should still have a functioning will to survive. c. Earlier in this thread I mentioned Raeder being fired after Gneisenau and Scharnhorst are lost due to butterflies. Yes, short-time loss for the Nazis, but in the long run, a win. d. He might allow them to get fuel in Spanish harbors, but no more. I thought up the possibility that he'll make very reluctantly war against Britain, but only to take Gibraltar, and only after being convinced by Canaris. e. Why should Churchill have paid little attention to it? IOTL he said (afterwards, but still) that it was the German subs which gave him nightmares, and nothing else. And he'd be correct about this, because the subs seem to be the only way for the "Reich" to really hurt Britain.
Try quick answers as got some things to do for the rest of the evening. a) Yes they did dawdle with it once they realised it was there but since it was sitting in fairly plain sight I believe from spring 1940 it only really needed someone to spot it and ask that and things could have been moving a year or two earlier. Plus while using it slows the speed of the subs that does make it fairly secure in daylight from airborne ASW until allied radars get really good. Also in conflict areas the subs tended to be underwater anyway during the day to avoid detection and then would need to use some of the night period, which was their best option for hunting for a good chunk of the war, to recharge the batteries. Presumably if you wanted to move fast under-water then it could be closed and you just operated on batteries while moving faster.
b) You might need multiple PODs to get things moving faster but probably only one or two people dragging their feet to delay things even further, Especially if things are worse in the Pacific which was where the USN's main attention was.
c) OK thanks.
d) I think if Franco commits, especially with something open like being involved in an attack to take Gib then it will be seen as an act of war by Britain - plus US if its after their in the war - so there wouldn't be an half way option open to him. You can't really be only a little bit at war in a conflict like this - although the US could be said to be something like that until 7-12-41.
e) If half the empire was going down the pan he would be feeling very agitated about that although admittedly he did manage to realise how important the Battle of the Atlantic was but seemed to thing of it primary as a naval conflict and didn't noticeably oppose Bomber Command grabbing just about every aircraft with long range for bombing Germany no matter what other uses they might be better/more needed for.
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