How many Sixes does Adolf Nazi have to Roll?

[Max Sinister]

A long time ago (about 15 years now), I decided to challenge myself by writing a detailed, non-ASBish timeline starting with the Mongol conquests since Genghis being stillborn, and continuing said timeline until the present (roughly, either by year or technology would have counted). This I called "climbing the Mount Everest of AH". You have to read and judge for yourself, but if you ask me, I certainly succeeded. And so far, nobody else seems to even seriously have tried to copy this achievement, in a different, individual way.

After this challenge, I did not find a satisfying challenge for a long time that was realizable as well - "Dubia" and "Jaredia", two timelines with an earlier Global Warming / different geography, proved to be too much of a challenge. Climbing Mount Everest is doable, but this was more like walking from the Cape of Good Hope to Tierra del Fuego via the Bering Strait. Maybe doable, but still.

So there seemed to be no other worthy and doable challenge in Althist, and there is only one Mount Everest in the world after all. That's why I mostly dropped the topic of Althist for some time.

But then one day, when I had a lot of time to ponder Althist, I remembered a different challenge at the very heart of it. Not a Mount Everest, more like a Mariana Trench.

This one isn't a new one, of course. It has been tried many times with varying success. Think of "Fatherland", "The Man in the High Castle", the new "Wolfenstein" games, "Swastika Night", "Wenn das der Führer wüsste", or the more recent "NSA".

Most of these works either stay deliberately vague (even "Fatherland", which was written by a real historian after all) or make assumptions simply too outrageous (looking at you, CalBear). I didn't want to do either.

Of course, at that point you have the old problem of the sheer superiority of Adolf Nazi's opponents. It does remind of the old Jewish joke with the punchline "Does the 'Führer' know this map?" Let alone the moral factor. Having FDR and/or Churchill making peace with Adolf Nazi, even one without losses for their countries, is a bit like asking POTUS Lincoln "Is the liberation of the slaves really worth the lives of so many white men?"

It seemed doable if and only if Adolf Nazi was rolling sixes all the time. Or at least close to it. So I decided to let him do exactly that. And got a title for a story at the same time. One that keeps a clear distance to nazism to boot.

[Max Sinister]

Links to collect background information:

• Original Discussion at the Sea Lion Press forum (locked since 26/4/2022)
• Discussion at Sufficient Velocity (updated 15/9/2022)
• Entry on the AltHistory Wikia incl. live-ticker for updates (updated 15/9/2022)
• Entry on the German AltHistory Wikia incl. live-ticker for updates (updated 15/9/2022)
• Entry on the GURPS Wikia (updated 15/9/2022)
• Entry at TV Tropes (updated 15/9/2022)
  
• Entry on the AlternateHistory.com Wiki (updated 25/8/2022)
• Discussion at Space Battles (updated 15/9/2022)

[Max Sinister]

Just to clarify what I'm aiming at:

• The conflict called "World War 2" has to end in Europe and nearby areas (Caucasus, Near and Middle East, Northern Africa, Iceland/Greenland) until silvester 1945, max. (A permanent armistice as between the two Koreas would count.)
• Nazi Germany and its allies in Europe and nearby (see above) have to have ceased warring with the US, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union, or never started to make war with them in the first place. Or vice versa.
• Nazi Germany and its allies have to control de facto all of the Soviet Union's territory west of the Dniepr and south of the Düna/Dvina river. Minimum.
• The western Allies (US, Empire, Free France) must not have a foothold on the European continent, save for Gibraltar maybe.
• The Reich also should control all of North Africa from Morocco to the Suez Canal, to make a US-lead invasion harder.

• The Reich has to control enough sources for crude oil: In the long run, Algeria and Libya would work too, but even in the short term, the oil from Romania and lesser sources won't be enough, neither will fuel produced from coal. If they don't conquer the Caucasian oil, the closest source would be nothern Iraq. Either would work - as would be long-term good relations to a source of crude oil.

• Of course, all islands in the Mediterranian (Malta, Cyprus) have to be under control as well. Gibraltar preferably as well.

Nazi Germany has to survive in recognizable shape at least twenty years after World War 2 ends. Meaning:
The head of state has to use the title of "Führer".
It has to be a one-party state effectively ("block parties" as in Communist Eastern Europe would pass, though), governed by the NSDAP.
Said party's ideology has to include German(ic) über nationalism, aggressive militarism, expansionism, white supremacy (even if called differently), and radical antisemitism. In theory and practice.
It has to control (together with allies and satellites) at least the same territory it controlled when the World War ended. Losses are acceptable only if it gained more and better territory in some other place before said losses happen.
Adolf Nazi, if dead after those twenty years, still has to be held in high regard officially. No "Dehitlerization" (like Destalinisation) allowed.
Almost superfluous to say: It has to be settled mostly by German-speaking citizens of Germany. Humans, not robots or zombies. Who actually mostly have German(ic) ancestors.
Most important: Only realizable events. No FDR/Churchill suddenly becoming convinced to become a nazi and make his country join Germany's side (that's against the laws of human psychology). No sudden invention of genetic engineering or artificial intelligence way ahead of their time (that's against the laws of scientific progress). No Maus for every German soldier (that's against the laws of production). No transports of a million men over 1000 miles in a day (that's against the laws of logistics). No discovery of yuge oil fields under German soil (that's against the laws of geology).
Additional: Adolf Nazi has to be alive, not comatose, not incapacitated, not committed etc. In short: To be able to give commands to people and notice at least when they aren't executed.

[Max Sinister]

Trigger warnings (so to speak):

This is a story where Adolf Nazi, initiator of World War 2, and main responsible one for the organized mass murder of about six million Jews, not only wins this war, but keeps on reigning over his new Reich. What do you expect, except colonialism of the worst kind, mass murder, and sadism on a gigantic scale?

But if you insist on details: This story offends everyone to the left of the Nazis (because the latter won), and in particular the government of the US, the UK, and the Stalinist Soviet Union (because they are willing to make peace with him); Jews, Romani, Poles, Russians, Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Czechs, French, Serbians, and several other people, plus the gaysexuals (because hundreds of thousands of either of them are murdered, tortured, and/or enslaved, without justification or punishment for the culprits); the European resistances and the German one in particular, for not being able to topple the Nazi regime; various people from Germany, continental Europe, Northern Africa, the Near and Middle East, for becoming Nazis or their collaborators; various moral institutions (the churches, the feminists, the Dalai Lama) for failing to stop the Nazis either; and of course Nazis, for being the unrepentant mass murderers, or at least the latter's apologists, they were and are. And often corrupt and/or perverted to boot. And often quite ridiculous characters, indeed. And often infighting (so much about unity a la "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer"), even when their country and their people (whom they allegedly loved so much) had a World War to fight. And people from the rest of the world, for being at lest willing to cooperate with Nazis. The Japanese in particular because the millions of Chinese they were willing to kill, and the hundreds of thousands of Allied PoWs they had planned to kill just in case aren't glossed over - and they receive a harsher punishment than in OTL.

[lordroel]

Apr 28, 2022 0:07:12 GMT Max Sinister said:

Trigger warnings (so to speak):

This is a story where Adolf Nazi, initiator of World War 2, and main responsible one for the organized mass murder of about six million Jews, not only wins this war, but keeps on reigning over his new Reich. What do you expect, except colonialism of the worst kind, mass murder, and sadism on a gigantic scale?

But if you insist on details: This story offends everyone to the left of the Nazis (because the latter won), and in particular the government of the US, the UK, and the Stalinist Soviet Union (because they are willing to make peace with him); Jews, Romani, Poles, Russians, Ukrainians, Byelorussians, Czechs, French, Serbians, and several other people, plus the gaysexuals (because hundreds of thousands of either of them are murdered, tortured, and/or enslaved, without justification or punishment for the culprits); the European resistances and the German one in particular, for not being able to topple the Nazi regime; various people from Germany, continental Europe, Northern Africa, the Near and Middle East, for becoming Nazis or their collaborators; various moral institutions (the churches, the feminists, the Dalai Lama) for failing to stop the Nazis either; and of course Nazis, for being the unrepentant mass murderers, or at least the latter's apologists, they were and are. And often corrupt and/or perverted to boot. And often quite ridiculous characters, indeed. And often infighting (so much about unity a la "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer"), even when their country and their people (whom they allegedly loved so much) had a World War to fight. And people from the rest of the world, for being at lest willing to cooperate with Nazis. The Japanese in particular because the millions of Chinese they were willing to kill, and the hundreds of thousands of Allied PoWs they had planned to kill just in case aren't glossed over - and they receive a harsher punishment than in OTL.

Well in The Man in The high Castle, both the novel and TV series it was mentioned that the Germans did with the Africans the same thing as the did with the Jews of OTL, do not know if that would happen in a Germany wins scenario but I do know there will be a lot of groups sadly be on the list to be exterminated.

[575]

Have You read about the Murmansk offensive by Dietl's Corps? It was so totally a no go much to do with terrain and logistics.

Operation Fir - as somebody on SV was it mentioned what about finances. Did some search some years ago about the Gold Hoards of various countries Germans conquered or occupied - Switzerland was a necessary outpost in Europe for Germany to help finances to launder captured gold etc. It was a real backdraw that the Scandinavians, Netherlands/Belgium and France got all or so much out even in the nick of time.

Canaris - actually no shining beacon of intelligence if I just look at the occupation of my own country. They had had officers holidaying for months and still got stuff wrong.

Enigma change of codes/adding new wheels at breakout of war may unseat some of the gains of the Poles made prewar and disseminated to the French and British and the Swedes from breaking it too. At least to make for a much longer time before being "reading" it. Sorry about Coventry.

Winter issue was ready for the Heer troops in Russian 1941 only the OKH didn't hand it out - not necessary. The SS was far more down to basics and doing just that.

Keep Benny from DOW Britain and France - impossible; I know, I know and then "My dear Duche I'll always remember this" (about Austria).

The Italians was searching for oil in Libya in the right place prior to the war - 'nother six!

[stevep]

Apr 27, 2022 23:46:27 GMT Max Sinister said:

Just to clarify what I'm aiming at:

• The conflict called "World War 2" has to end in Europe and nearby areas (Caucasus, Near and Middle East, Northern Africa, Iceland/Greenland) until silvester 1945, max. (A permanent armistice as between the two Koreas would count.)
• Nazi Germany and its allies in Europe and nearby (see above) have to have ceased warring with the US, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union, or never started to make war with them in the first place. Or vice versa.
• Nazi Germany and its allies have to control de facto all of the Soviet Union's territory west of the Dniepr and south of the Düna/Dvina river. Minimum.
• The western Allies (US, Empire, Free France) must not have a foothold on the European continent, save for Gibraltar maybe.
• Nazi Germany has to survive in recognizable shape at least twenty years after World War 2 ends. Meaning:
• The head of state has to use the title of "Führer".
• It has to be a one-party state effectively ("block parties" as in Communist Eastern Europe would pass, though), governed by the NSDAP.
• Said party's ideology has to include German(ic) über nationalism, aggressive militarism, expansionism, white supremacy (even if called differently), and radical antisemitism. In theory and practice.
• It has to control (together with allies and satellites) at least the same territory it controlled when the World War ended. Losses are acceptable only if it gained more and better territory in some other place before said losses happen.
• Adolf Nazi, if dead after those twenty years, still has to be held in high regard officially. No "Dehitlerization" (like Destalinisation) allowed.
• Almost superfluous to say: It has to be settled mostly by German-speaking citizens of Germany. Humans, not robots or zombies. Who actually mostly have German(ic) ancestors.
• Most important: Only realizable events. No FDR/Churchill suddenly becoming convinced to become a nazi and make his country join Germany's side (that's against the laws of human psychology). No sudden invention of genetic engineering or artificial intelligence way ahead of their time (that's against the laws of scientific progress). No Maus for every German soldier (that's against the laws of production). No transports of a million men over 1000 miles in a day (that's against the laws of logistics). No discovery of yuge oil fields under German soil (that's against the laws of geology).
  

Additional: Adolf Nazi has to be alive, not comatose, not incapacitated, not committed etc. In short: To be able to give commands to people and notice at least when they aren't executed.

  Max Sinister,

  I have seen a fair number of ideas on TheSietch for such scenarios but that site is heavily dominated by right wingers including one poster who is very much a Nazi apologist. 

  In terms of your conditions I posted a short TL somewhere which might fit it, albeit not sure how many triple 6's Hitler would have to roll to have the disaster that was his empire lasts in a state of significant power for 20 years after the conflict ended.  Think its more likely it would collapse into chaos or trigger a nuclear war with someone.

  My basic idea which I called Disaster at Washington and posted somewhere but couldn't find it here when I looked a few months ago - worked on the US rejecting the idea of Operation Torch and insisting on a 1943 landing in N France.  This has several issues.

a)  As a result while 2nd El Alemein goes ahead it can't be followed up all the way to Tripoli as Britain doesn't have the logistical capacity while there is a requirement to move some of the more experienced units back to Britain to lead the British parts of the landings in France.

b)  Without Torch and the demand for a lot of forces to be moved to N Africa, especially air and logistical elements the Germans do somewhat better in the east, say managing to destroy the Kursk salient before the mud sets in and get a somewhat better kill ration compared to OTL.

c)  Its clear from the build up that an invasion is coming so the Germans do switch some more forces to N France - especially since they avoid the OTL problems of diversions to N Africa, Vichy [which stays in existence rather than having to be occupied] and Italy to try and shore up Mussolini's regime.    Also the construction of defences is accelerated.  Their still going to be weaker than OTL 44 bit not going to be as weak as OTL 43.

d)  This changes the dynamics of actions between the three great blocs in Europe [Axis, Allies and Soviets].  Coupled with the need to rebuild its armoured forces after the winter Germany can't start a new offensive in the east until the Soviets have done as well and with the threat of an invasion the army insists on a larger strategic reserve.  Stalin wants the allies to come in at the same time as he launches his summer offensive as well.

e)  The allied landing fails in fairly short order for several reasons.

i)  Forces are a lot less experienced without combat in FNA and Italy, possibly especially the leaders at all levels.  Ditto with equipment as there isn't time to put together items such as the Mulberries and there are less landing craft available.  Ditto with things like Hobart's 'Funnies'. Everything is in short supply as the allies have been shipping US forces and equipment across while the Battle of the Atlantic is at its height so there are losses there and also this means significantly less resources reaches Britain during this period or is consumed by the US forces arriving in greater numbers earlier.

ii)  Similarly allied air power is less dominant, with less time and weaker and less experienced forces for the reduction of the railway network in N Europe - which also means their removed from attacks on Germany and other activities earlier so German production post-Stalingrad rises higher than OTL. Tactical air is also weaker in size and expertise without the fighting in N Africa and there is less time to develop longer ranged a/c.

iii)  With Rommel still in N Africa the armoured reserves are kept centralised around Paris rather than split between forward units and a smaller reserve and without the dispute over this Hitler hasn't insisted he personally controls the release of the latter.  This means a more powerful armoured counter attack is possible.  It still suffers heavily from allied air power and near the coast from naval bombardment but with the allies being weaker and the Luftwaffe stronger but is able to hit the weaker and less experienced allied forces and cause chaos.

iv)  If you wish also add in an untimely storm such as the one that delayed D Day OTL or the one that hit about a month later and wreaked one Mulberry.

f)  It does however last long enough for Stalin to launch his own offensive only for this to meet stiff German resistance and with the collapse of the allied landings in the west the German strategic reserve heading eastwards.  As the result while the Soviets makes some gains their losses are very heavy.  It also increases tension between the allies as Stalin claims the western powers have deliberately made a fake attack to lure him into his offensive - which with his paranoia he could even believe.

  As a result both allied powers have suffered significant losses and seen their plans put back while Germany, although taking heavy losses itself sees morale boosted and with Italy still secure as well as Italian control of at least western Libya.  Possibly also there are tensions between the UK and US especially if the  more cautious British have evacuated their surviving forces a bit quicker and with more success than the Americans.  [Possibly as a trade off for British reluctance in a 43 invasion its decided that the US forces will be landing on the eastern beaches and are very badly mauled by the German armoured counter attack.]  Furthermore you will probably see a growing feeling in the US that the war against Japan is 'their' war and a desire after heavy losses not to send millions more men to Europe.

g)  As such with growing mistrust rumours reach Stalin that the allies are negotiating with the Nazis he starts a more determined approach for a separate peace.  In turn the western powers find out about this and this further alienates them from Stalin, possibly with some threats that L-L will be cut unless Stalin makes clear he will continue the war.

h)  From here its quite possible, if Hitler has an outbreak of sanity, for some peace agreement between Stalin and Hitler.  It will of course be a very unstable and heavily armed peace.  The peace settlement will see some German withdrawals, probably especially from around Leningrad but they will keep most of the lands they currently occupy which will leave the border some way east of the Dnieper.   There might be an exchange of PoWs but this could aid Germany more than the Soviets as many of the Soviet prisoners are already dead and going by OTL the others might still swap German camps for Soviet gulags.

i)  This makes continuing the war to the defeat of Germany look far more difficult and costly for the western allies and with demands to continue the war against Japan the US is unwilling - and hence the UK unable - to continue and some peace settlement made between the western powers and the Nazis.  Again this will be an armed peace, although mainly between Germany and a Britain supported by elements in its empire and intermittently by the US.  However all three nations/blocs will gain from the end of the war in the west.

j)  Would expect that the war in the east is fought to the finish.  This could however be very bad for Japan and distinctly worse than OTL for the US if it means they end up invading Japan before B-29's are available to bomb it flat or nukes to end things quickly.  This could mean very heavy Japanese population losses from combat, starvation, disease and it being a lasting area of poverty and disorder.  The US is likely to occupy all of Korea and support the KMT against the CCP in China with Stalin probably sending indirect aid to the communists but not clashing directly as he's looking over his shoulder at the Germans.

  A hell of a lot would change, in many different ways around the world but if Nazi Germany stays firmly Nazi its going to be very bad for the people under their rule with quite possibly tens of millions dying.  However I think the above could meet your scenario.

[miletus12]

Apr 27, 2022 23:02:03 GMT Max Sinister said:

A long time ago (about 15 years now), I decided to challenge myself by writing a detailed, non-ASBish timeline starting with the Mongol conquests since Genghis being stillborn, and continuing said timeline until the present (roughly, either by year or technology would have counted). This I called "climbing the Mount Everest of AH". You have to read and judge for yourself, but if you ask me, I certainly succeeded. And so far, nobody else seems to even seriously have tried to copy this achievement, in a different, individual way.

After this challenge, I did not find a satisfying challenge for a long time that was realizable as well - "Dubia" and "Jaredia", two timelines with an earlier Global Warming / different geography, proved to be too much of a challenge. Climbing Mount Everest is doable, but this was more like walking from the Cape of Good Hope to tierra del Fuego via the Bering Strait. Maybe doable, but still.

So there seemed to be no other worthy and doable challenge in Althist, and there is only one Mount Everest in the world after all. That's why I mostly dropped the topic of Althist for some time.

But then one day, when I had a lot of time to ponder Althist, I remembered a different challenge at the very heart of it. Not a Mount Everest, more like a Mariana Trench.

This one isn't a new one, of course. It has been tried many times with varying success. Think of "Fatherland", "The Man in the High Castle", the new "Wolfenstein" games, "Swastika Night", "Wenn das der Führer wüsste", or the more recent "NSA".

Most of these works either stay deliberately vague (even "Fatherland", which was written by a real historian after all) or make assumptions simply too outrageous (looking at you, CalBear). I didn't want to do either.

Of course, at that point you have the old problem of the sheer superiority of Adolf Nazi's opponents. It does remind of the old Jewish joke with the punchline "Does the 'Führer' know this map?" Let alone the moral factor. Having FDR and/or Churchill making peace with Adolf Nazi, even one without losses for their countries, is a bit like asking POTUS Lincoln "Is the liberation of the slaves really worth the lives of so many white men?"

It seemed doable if and only if Adolf Nazi was rolling sixes all the time. Or at least close to it. So I decided to let him do exactly that. And got a title for a story at the same time. One that keeps a clear distance to nazism to boot.,,,

This is an attempt to remake the historical timeline that ignores three constraints.
a. tactical achievable radius of an army's action due to internal combustion engine technology and power throughput as work to ground effects.
b. achievable airborne carry loads and distances due to internal combustion engine technology.
c. probability of weapon effectors success due to chemical explosives and human operator limits.
d. seapower in ANY context. 

The Germans were excellent ground warfare tacticians, mediocre operational artists and incompetent grand strategists and technologists.  They did not understand a, b, c, or d at all.

They got as far as they did, because:
1. Poland was subjectible to a four axis assault encirclement and a mere routine drive and foot march from start points of 200 kilometers from German frontiers and from Russian frontiers in ANY direction into Poland that meant instant conquest.  Having the requisite 4x to 1 at contact meant even incompetent Russians could carry off an Idiotenspaziergang (idiots' walk.).
2. Norway and Denmark were weak small countries that were easily overwhelmed by geographic proximity to similar Idiotenspaziergang. When one looks CLOSELY at German operations, in those two examples, one sees massive stupidity and bungling as was the case in Poland.  Example, the cruiser Blucher.      
3. The first real test the Germans faced was France 1940. The Germans got their 6s in the form of Gamelin, Huntziger and the traitor Petain. Notice that they stalled about 200 kilometers into France and had to conduct France 1940 in two bounds? 
4. The Battle of Britian was unwinnable no matter what the Germans tried. If one did not have Mahan, then one could not understand how to cross the English Channel. One has to cross the English Channel and logistically support the effort. Not even the British could do that (Corbett incompetence.) and one has to ask why one would expect the Germans to even begin to know how to do it.

Russia. 

If only:
a. Started earlier. (Ukraine example today. Mud mud mud. Begins in February and lasts until August.) This change is a shibboleth.
b. No Balkans diversion. Maybe a Panzer corps and two infantry corps. In the grand scheme of things did 125,000 Germans, with associated arms, matter in that campaign? If there had BEEN no Balkans diversion about 750,000 "allied" troops would not have joined the Hitlerite war against the Russians. So that is a chimera.
c. Only drive against Moscow. See Map.


Stupid is as STUPID DOES. Nazis stop being Nazis when they start to make reasonable and CORRECT decisions. Moscow is the axle of Russian logistics. This is a 6 possible when one looks at the logistics. But we have a problem...
a. Unlike AMERICANS, who will send railroad troops and equipment to RUSSIA and TEACH those "people" how to use a railroad network efficiently, the Germans used their railroad troops and experts and railroad equipment to set up a distribution network of about 2000 murder factories. Then they diverted about 15% of their transport capacity and total industrial output to MURDER 12-18 million innocent people.
b. What resources the Germans put into logistics was not efficiently distributed. Those 400,000 French army trucks they stole to mechanize Barbarossa had no spare parts supply chains set up. If you are going to STEAL another (conquered) country's truck park, it might be a good idea to keep that conquered country's factories humming making spare parts and new trucks? 
c. Quit trying to gimmick a fix. (Panther Tank to cure the T-34). Russia is a cold wet swamp west of the Urals. It is also HUGE. But there are accessible weak points in that battlespace. Use the canal system and fight off the rivers. Logistics by barge and sledge is possible. The example is LENINGRAD. That is how the Russians did it when the Germans cut the railroads to that city. 
d. Speaking of the Panther... it was not the T-34 that won the Great Patriotic War. It was these things...

 
    
and these...

  
        
Russian artillery (especially mortars) stripped German panzers of their infantry bodyguards so Russian infantry could swarm the German tanks close in and KILL them. That took away German offensive tactical combined arms options.  Once the Germans were restricted to defensive counterattacks, they proved so inept in defense, that even the tactically incompetent and inept Russians could break their defensive fronts. The Eastern Front was lost when the German infantry bled out and their tanks became vulnerable to infantry ambush and close assault. Again look at the modern Ukraine War. The results are eerily similar.

d. So... how does the Herr roll a 6 in Russia? How do they Mackinder? 
-- Stop listening to Mannstein and Guderian and the other Nazis in Uniform. Those assorted idiots are losing the war. 
-- Pay attention to beans, bullets and boots. 
-- Remember what got you there and remember your infantry fundamentals, as in preserving those soldiers. 
-- Fight smart. Ukrainians hate Russians. Instant "Ubermenschen" in the despicable lingo of the day. 35 million allies.  More dependable than Rumanians or Italians. Good INFANTRY as Stalin will shortly demonstrate as he deploys them against the Herr.  What do the Germans do instead? Murder them according to "Nazi racial ideology".      
-- Stop murdering innocent people. Morale is to material as 3 to 1. This is part of the OPERATIONAL ART. The reason Stalin was able to use Ukrainians was because he got "Russian religion and patriotism" and sold that baloney to the Ukrainians. But here is the kicker... The Ukrainians AFTER the Great Patriotic War rebelled and for ten years carried on a low-grade guerrilla war against the Vozhd (Russian word for Fuhrer translates into "boss".). Why did the Ukrainians fight? Stalin reverted back to murdering them as he had in the 1930s. The stupidity of this decision is what we see today in the Ukraine. The Russians better be afraid if the Ukrainians ever get atomic weapons after this latest history lesson. 

=========================================================   

So can one write a timeline as suggested above? If one plonks FDR and Marshall into Germany instead of Hitler and Keitel, and if one gives the Germans a King, I give them about a 35% chance.  But then we would not have Nazis and we would not have WWII. We might have something more like what is happening NOW in Europe. Is that a German victory?  

[miletus12]

Apr 27, 2022 23:46:27 GMT Max Sinister said:

Just to clarify what I'm aiming at:

Taking these points, let us assess the reasonableness of the conditions.

• The conflict called "World War 2" has to end in Europe and nearby areas (Caucasus, Near and Middle East, Northern Africa, Iceland/Greenland) until silvester 1945, max. (A permanent armistice as between the two Koreas would count.)

  How does this happen? No one will negotiate. This assumes an American participation in the war.  

• Nazi Germany and its allies in Europe and nearby (see above) have to have ceased warring with the US, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union, or never started to make war with them in the first place. Or vice versa.

  How does this happen? The British and the French go in the moment Poland is attacked. The divergence of events has to begin before Hitler seizes power in 1933.   

• Nazi Germany and its allies have to control de facto all of the Soviet Union's territory west of the Dniepr and south of the Düna/Dvina river. Minimum.

  How does this happen? And one does realize the Germans run out of OIL for offense by March 1944, without any recourse to Baiku, so they cannot stay that far east once their war reserve is gone?   

• The western Allies (US, Empire, Free France) must not have a foothold on the European continent, save for Gibraltar maybe.

• Nazi Germany has to survive in recognizable shape at least twenty years after World War 2 ends. Meaning:

  This presumes that the previous objections have been met, and that the Herr will not junta, once the Nazis turn on each other after the Austrian draft dodger and coward dies or is assassinated by the 80th attempt on his life. (Did not know there were more than 70 attempts to kill "the mustache"?)  

[/quote][/ul]       What makes that important? 

It has to be a one-party state effectively ("block parties" as in Communist Eastern Europe would pass, though), governed by the NSDAP.

It could become an SS state in which case, the Germans will be promptly nuked.  

Said party's ideology has to include German(ic) über nationalism, aggressive militarism, expansionism, white supremacy (even if called differently), and radical antisemitism. In theory and practice.

So; that quick predictable national demise is guaranteed. (Morgenthau or Stalin, flip a coin.)

It has to control (together with allies and satellites) at least the same territory it controlled when the World War ended. Losses are acceptable only if it gained more and better territory in some other place before said losses happen.

See MAP.

• Adolf Nazi, if dead after those twenty years, still has to be held in high regard officially. No "Dehitlerization" (like Destalinisation) allowed.

  Not going to happen if there are any historians around.

• Almost superfluous to say: It has to be settled mostly by German-speaking citizens of Germany. Humans, not robots or zombies. Who actually mostly have German(ic) ancestors.

  Not going to happen if Stalin is around. 

• Most important: Only realizable events. No FDR/Churchill suddenly becoming convinced to become a nazi and make his country join Germany's side (that's against the laws of human psychology). No sudden invention of genetic engineering or artificial intelligence way ahead of their time (that's against the laws of scientific progress). No Maus for every German soldier (that's against the laws of production). No transports of a million men over 1000 miles in a day (that's against the laws of logistics). No discovery of yuge oil fields under German soil (that's against the laws of geology).

  
  IOW, the constraints I pointed out in my previous post are operants? Good luck violating human biology and 1940s technology.   

Additional: Adolf Nazi has to be alive, not comatose, not incapacitated, not committed etc. In short: To be able to give commands to people and notice at least when they aren't executed

He is not going to make it. That goes against the limits of human biology and psychology. It can be argued that he lasted as long as he did because he rolled nothing but 6s until April 1945.

Apr 28, 2022 20:25:32 GMT stevep said:

  I have seen a fair number of ideas on TheSietch for such scenarios but that site is heavily dominated by right wingers including one poster who is very much a Nazi apologist. 

Interesting. 

[Max Sinister]

Thanks for all the answers! Now one after another...

Apr 28, 2022 9:15:57 GMT lordroel said:

Well in The Man in The high Castle, both the novel and TV series it was mentioned that the Germans did with the Africans the same thing as the did with the Jews of OTL, do not know if that would happen in a Germany wins scenario but I do know there will be a lot of groups sadly be on the list to be exterminated.

Well, there's Alternate History Wank and AH Bukkake. The former OK (even if the chance is actually one in a million), but I won't do the latter. If Nazi Germany controls all of continental western Europe, some pieces of the Soviet Union, North Africa, the Near East and (via Italy) Abyssinia at the end of the war, they're about as lucky as is realistically possible.

And as for black Africa: They had planned to reintroduce slavery, so that is more probable than mass extermination. Philip K. Dick really went too far with this.

[lordroel]

Apr 30, 2022 14:30:41 GMT Max Sinister said:

Philip K. Dick really went too far with this.

That is what authors can do, take something that was already bad and turn into a horrible nightmare.

[Max Sinister]

Apr 28, 2022 13:56:10 GMT 575 said:

Have You read about the Murmansk offensive by Dietl's Corps? It was so totally a no go much to do with terrain and logistics.

Operation Fir - as somebody on SV was it mentioned what about finances. Did some search some years ago about the Gold Hoards of various countries Germans conquered or occupied - Switzerland was a necessary outpost in Europe for Germany to help finances to launder captured gold etc. It was a real backdraw that the Scandinavians, Netherlands/Belgium and France got all or so much out even in the nick of time.

Canaris - actually no shining beacon of intelligence if I just look at the occupation of my own country. They had had officers holidaying for months and still got stuff wrong.

Enigma change of codes/adding new wheels at breakout of war may unseat some of the gains of the Poles made prewar and disseminated to the French and British and the Swedes from breaking it too. At least to make for a much longer time before being "reading" it. Sorry about Coventry.

Winter issue was ready for the Heer troops in Russian 1941 only the OKH didn't hand it out - not necessary. The SS was far more down to basics and doing just that.

Keep Benny from DOW Britain and France - impossible; I know, I know and then "My dear Duche I'll always remember this" (about Austria).

The Italians was searching for oil in Libya in the right place prior to the war - 'nother six!

One thing after another...

1. Of course Murmansk is a difficult territory, even Dietl admitted it - and told the "Führer" to his face. So the operation was changed - instead of "marching the puny 100 km from Petsamo to Murmansk", Dietl's forces were split. Giving him the option to attack elsewhere. But with way too few troops. Not really an improvement, yes. Maybe ITTL Adolf Nazi has a better mood and actually allows him to implement something that might work? Cutting off the railroad would prevent L&L deliveries reaching Leningrad/further south. Yes, professionals study logistics.

2. Yes, I never thought Fir Tree would be easy, or pay off. Maybe later, when the big war is won. (How exactly, I still have to find out.)

3. Canaris at least was smart enough to manipulate Franco to keep him out of the war. The situation in 1940 wasn't that great fo Britain. (And what is your country?)

4. Yes, there was much stupidity among army bureaucrats, I've read stories about them.

5. Libyan oil... interesting, but would probably take too long until they get millions of barrels from there, esp. under war conditions. Afterwards, sure.

[Max Sinister]

stevep , thx. The Sietch I'd rather avoid. And about that scenario... after Stalingrad, methinks, the chances of Nazi Germany to win (even in the sense of "have more territory under control than in 1939") are zero, if not negative. The best part of that scenario: A Mega-Dieppe, where the WAllies try to land somewhere along the Atlantic coast, using more troops than in Dieppe, but fewer than at D-Day. As a result, the Wehrmacht wins, now has made some hundred thousands of PoWs, and the WAllies might decide because of that it's time to quit and concentrate on Japan.

Even that alone would still leave the SU around fighting, so I might need one or more sixes elsewhere. But it's a step.

Of course, there's the problem that the Allies had agreed not to make a separate peace. Don't know the dates right now when they agreed to that.

[Max Sinister]

Good analysis, miletus12. I only have a few comments.

Yes, they were pretty lucky in France, which is why I'll have the PoD after Sickle Cut.

No, I never thought that Operation (Sea) Lion was possible either. So I won't even let them try it.

Barbarossa shouldn't start too early either, because of the mud season you mentioned. And in 1941 it took unusually long. Making it one of the two huge weather problems, since winter 1941/42 was unusually cold too. Two weeks earlier might be fine, but not much more.

Of course Moscow would be the most valuable target in Russia. Then again, Adolf Nazi wanted the Ukrainian grain because he feared that hunger might wreck the German morale and lead to a revolution as in 1918. And I guess the Russians would fight like hell. How is the Wehrmacht supposed to take one of Europe's biggest city? Pretty hard to do... but yes, they might divert some troops from the North instead.

You can say that the Holocaust diverted ressources, but the Wannsee conference happened in late 1941, so this didn't actually matter for the time before.

Other than that, your analysis is spot on. Hard to implement your other suggestions, unless the Nazis weren't Nazis (but they'll stay so).

More about your other post later.

[stevep]

Apr 30, 2022 14:54:36 GMT Max Sinister said:

stevep , thx. The Sietch I'd rather avoid. And about that scenario... after Stalingrad, methinks, the chances of Nazi Germany to win (even in the sense of "have more territory under control than in 1939") are zero, if not negative. The best part of that scenario: A Mega-Dieppe, where the WAllies try to land somewhere along the Atlantic coast, using more troops than in Dieppe, but fewer than at D-Day. As a result, the Wehrmacht wins, now has made some hundred thousands of PoWs, and the WAllies might decide because of that it's time to quit and concentrate on Japan.

Even that alone would still leave the SU around fighting, so I might need one or more sixes elsewhere. But it's a step.

Of course, there's the problem that the Allies had agreed not to make a separate peace. Don't know the dates right now when they agreed to that.

  I don't blame you on the Sietch but came across a couple of good TLs there and that's my prime reason for visiting. 

  I think the scenario I mention could be practical and when I initially presented it - might be on SV as I was there for a while and as I said I couldn't find it here - was the last possible practical point where Nazi Germany could wangle a 'win' i.e. ending up not just avoiding clear defeat but with a large empire under their control.  I would agree its unlikely but the Soviets were struggling as well and if the allies made the mistakes I mentioned and then splintered it could happen I think.  Definitely not a world I would like to live in however although Britain does in the short term avoid a lot of the bloodshed and strain of the last couple of years of the war.