WI South Ossetia & Abkhazia were still a part of Georgia

[stevep]

May 15, 2022 0:40:47 GMT justiniano said:

Question 1: What if Russia simply never decided to invade on their behalves
Question 2: What if Georgia Joined the CTSO  becoming a Russian ally, making Russia have no need to invade.

I'm interested in whether this would make Georgia wealthier or poorer and to what Extent and how much internal division Georgia would have in TTL. Would it be like Northern Ireland is now?

  Well Northern Ireland is still relatively peaceful at the moment.  Some of the hot-heads on both extremes have been stirred up by Brussel's determination to annex the province as an EU colony but as far as I'm aware there has only been one terrorist murder and that was a couple of years ago.  I think Georgia would probably have made much worse problems in those two regions if they had stayed part of it, or a markedly harsher oppression of them or quite possibly both.

[justiniano]

stevep, Would Georgia still be more prosperous than say Morocco in the 2 timelines I proposed?

[justiniano]

stevep,thx btw

[simon darkshade]

2020 Georgia GDP: 15.89 billion USD
2020 Morocco GDP: 112.9 billion USD

Such a gap does suggest that a few districts won’t make up that difference.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade, ummm... Gdp on it's own is irrelevent to prosperity. Gdp per capita ppp is what's relevant

[simon darkshade]

It was to illustrate how you were already off the mark.

Georgia in 2020 had 3.714 million people for a GDP/capita of $4278.4. Morocco had 36.91 million people for a GDP/capita of $3058.79.

Even adding a few small districts of 53,000 and 244,926 will not push the Georgian figure down by $1219/head unless they somehow have a negative GDP of ~3.6 billion.

With smaller GDPs to begin with, they can be subject to fluctuation from small effects, which has been the father of the more ridiculous GDP growths/declines of the last century.

Furthermore, PPP figures aren't the most useful measures for actions of state and hard economic power. A measure that puts Russia and Indonesia above Britain, France, Canada and Italy is somewhat suspect, to pick out just one issue among many.

[justiniano]

May 16, 2022 3:46:47 GMT simon darkshade said:

Even adding a few small districts of 53,000 and 244,926 will not push the Georgian figure down by $1219/head unless they somehow have a negative GDP of ~3.6 billion.

In my 2nd TL I posted Georgia would be a Russian ally which means that they'd probably be sanctioned by the U.S. & it's allies and hence probably less prosperous than morocco

[simon darkshade]

Sanctions do not equate to a drop in GDP of 20-25%.

[justiniano]

stevep, In russia's case it was over 25%

[justiniano]

May 16, 2022 3:46:47 GMT simon darkshade said:

Furthermore, PPP figures aren't the most useful measures for actions of state and hard economic power. A measure that puts Russia and Indonesia above Britain, France, Canada and Italy is somewhat suspect, to pick out just one issue among many.

Actually I think Russia & Indonesia are more powerful than the other countries u listed. However their gdp per capita ppp is way below the ones you listed

[simon darkshade]

Great claims and great arguments require a requisitely great level of proof. Stating that Indonesia is more powerful than Britain or France, two nuclear powers that are considered the 6th and 7th largest economies in the world by the IMF, requires quite a bit in anyone’s view.

Russia’s position as a great power is due almost entirely to its nuclear weapons. At this point of the Ukrainian War, their other indices of hard economic and military power have been proved to be decidedly deficient. It currently has a GDP of 1.829 trillion on 2022 figures, putting it at 11th in the world; it is likely to be looking at a drop of over 10% this year alone. Should current measures to curtail their oil and gas exports continue, and if you were a betting man I would not wager against it, then that will fall further. When Iran looks like overtaking you economically in one year, then things can considered to be quite troubled.

Raw GDP matters quite a lot above and beyond per capita figures in a number of ways. One of the chief ones is defence spending. Russia’s $65 billion came from 4.1% in 2021; 2023 will need to be much higher to reach that level with their loss.

The devil is in the detail.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade,when talking about indonesia being more powerful. I meant more powerful than Italy and Canada. My bad. I should have specified

[lordroel]

Okay going to ask to bring this thread back on track because it is way of rails at the moment.