WI: Ethiopia started to rapidly industrialize when it was communist?

[justiniano]

First off since Ethiopia was a hellscape of violence during the Derg's regime spending most of their resources on crushing rival communist factions, ethnic separatists, and Somalis. What if first, the Derg made compromises with other communist factions to avoid becoming the hellscape Ethiopia was when it was communist.



Next of course for rapid industrialization, you need many well-educated people which Ethiopia simply did not have. So, China, North Korea, and every country in the Warsaw pact donate a dozen educated people each to work for Ethiopia's communist party, in exchange. Ethiopia gives each of these countries 0.00025% of their 1988 GDP. A long with 0.00025% of their GDP at the end of every subsequent year that they remain communist.



Another thing is idk if they had enough natural gas to supply this industrialization (ik they definitely don't have enough oil or coal) Maybe they can start the renaissance damn, or a smaller version of it that could be completed in 1987 (ofc this would mean donating water to Egypt later down the line to prevent a war) or maybe make many (possibly DIY) solar panels

[simon darkshade]

1988 GDP was $10.91 billion U.S, so 10.91 million USD. Why are they paying 9 separate countries $98 million every year for advisors when the Soviets had more and sent more than that without the annualised payment?

Furthermore, they did have their own universities and PhD programmes as of 1987. They also had factories and industry. They weren’t Umboto Gorge.

1988 is not an advantageous time to start trying to ape the Soviets in the 1930s, given what happens the next year.

Could they industrialise more? Yes. Foreign technical expertise could address the bottleneck, but 108 men is too little, too late.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade, ty. Check my edit. What do you Think this means for the rest of history? would the USSR survive any longer? What would Ethiopia be like tody?

[simon darkshade]

It isn’t the monetary figure that is the problem, but the notion that a few dozen ‘educated people’ will somehow kickstart a rapid industrialisation.

It won’t.

Furthermore, there will be no change to his trot with such a minor and peripheral alteration, so we still see the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and collapse of the USSR.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade, But in TTL the Derg made compromises with other communist factions to avoid becoming the hellscape Ethiopia was in OTL.

[simon darkshade]

It doesn’t matter if they formed a national dancing group. The reasons for the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union were not changeable based on what happens in Ethiopia.

If the Derg do some things differently internally, there will some small internal alterations, but not a sea change.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade, How much longer does Ethiopia remain communist for?

[justiniano]

simon darkshade, Also, does Eritrea remain a part of Ethiopia for any longer?

[simon darkshade]

I can’t see it existing past 1991, nor control of Eritrea past the same year.

The fall of the Soviet Union and communism was a big thing for those of us who lived through it. It’s effects can’t be butterflied by 324 advisors.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade,is east african geopolitics any different in TTL?

[simon darkshade]

No, as the change comes too late and is far too little.

[justiniano]

simon darkshade,Would the communists at least erase illiteracy in Ethiopia like they did in Albania?

[simon darkshade]

Not in 3 years and with a handful of people. I hate sounding like a broken record, but nothing much can be changed in a backwards country with only 3 years of time.

[justiniano]

Will Ethiopia's literacy rate be any higher than it is in OTL?

[simon darkshade]

Perhaps a small statistical anomaly, but nothing noticeable.