What if ASBs antipodally swap the hemispheres for Australasia and Iberia in the 1890s, or in the 193

[raharris1973]

Scenario 1: ASB action in 1896:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1896. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis* fields/bubbles foor six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1896, to minimize seasonal disruption.

(*stasis means time stands still, thus matter/energy cannot move through areas where the dimension of time is not applying (a stasis field), making it a perfect force field. It's been used in multiple science fiction works. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasis_(fiction))

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1890s and turn of the century proceed?

This historical era includes: This is about a year into the Cuban Revolution against Spain, about two months before the beginning of US legislation escalating US participation in the Venezuelan boundary dispute, 6 years after the British ultimatum to Portugal, and 8 months before the start of the Filipino revolution. The disappearance of the antipodes occurs at the same time as the Jameson Raid in Transvaal and the Kaiser’s Kruger Telegram the following day. Would the Spanish in Cuba have faced a critical resupply crisis during the homeland’s six month hiatus in time? Would any of the other Spanish and Portuguese colonies, then all momentarily at peace, have broken out into rebellion or declared secession, or been been occupied by third powers during that hiatus? What ability do the Spanish and Portuguese have to reestablish control over their scattered global imperial holdings when they get back from their six months hiatus in time? What does this event do to the possibility of a Spanish-American War, on any front, in the Caribbean or Pacific? What does it do to the prospect of Australian federation and British imperial policy going forward into the 20th century?

Here are maps illustrating the change:

Global view
imgur.com/QG3iu9P


Close of New Zealand relative to Europe
imgur.com/YblKnq2

Close up of Australia & New Guinea relative to the Atlantic & American coasts
imgur.com/2VZ41Z2

"Close-up" of Iberian countries relative to the South and East Pacific and Pacific American coasts
imgur.com/drq2Qwm

Scenario 2: ASB action in 1932:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1932. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis fields/bubbles. For six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1932, to minimize seasonal disruption.

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1930s proceed?

Historical era includes: Portuguese Estate Novo, Spanish Republic, Spanish Civil War, Australia and New Zealand independence per Statute of Westminster and the early years of the British Imperial Preference non-free trade system, and Britain’s handling of its interwar foreign and defence policy dilemmas and WWII.

No new maps, the geographic change is basically identical, and I am not showing in detail all the world's political borders.

[raharris1973]

For the 1890s version of this scenario - I would predict that this occurrence would greatly boost emigration from the British Isles, and Europe more generally, to Australia, and especially New Zealand, now that it is so much closer. Also, by putting them in the same hemisphere in the same growing season, this puts Australian and New Zealand farmers in direct competition with American ones, making competition tougher for all, probably more so for the Americans, possibly boosting Populist sentiment there. Australia is also more convenient for American immigration. It probably siphons some flow that would have otherwise gone to Canada, the US, and Latin America.

The British Empire has a land border with Morocco to protect at the edge of New Zealand's former South Island. That likely means Britain will not look kindly on the opposite shore of Morocco becoming an exclusive French or Spanish preserve but rather Britain would support an international open door or great power condominium, if not it's own rule there. The strait between NZ north and south island would be the new equivalent of Gibraltar. however, north of New Zealand, there is new passageway between there and Ireland and Cornwall and Brittany that is far wider than any mere strait, "unchoking" free movement of ships from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic and back.

The German section of New Guinea is now a German tropical Atlantic base instead of a tropical Pacific base. The Germans (for as long as they keep it) can use it to support their trade, influence, and gunboat diplomacy in Africa, the Caribbean, and against South American countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, and Argentina.

It is an open question whether Australia and New Zealand become as autonomous from London and form their historic continental federations. Particularly so for New Zealand, the relatively smaller and close to England. New Zealand may end up simply being organized as counties and constituencies directly incorporated into Great Britain and Ireland and directly represented in the Westminster parliament.

The US, with a more robust string of British bases (by way of Australia) sticking towards its face and the Caribbean will probably be more circumspect and a bit less strident in tone when weighing in on the British Guiana-Venezuela border dispute.

break/break

During the period of Spain's apparent absence under the stasis bubble for six months, Spanish forces in Cuba will most likely concede independence to the Cuban rebels in return for rights of naturalization, property, and personal security, or alternatively, they may debark for Puerto Rico. Most other parts of the Spanish empire may hold under the status quo regime as a caretaker, although there is a chance the Filipino rebellion may begin sooner than historical, and Spanish forces may concede independence to rebels, believing themselves hopeless without support from metropolitan Spain.

The status quo regimes in Portuguese colonies are likely to hold together under local officials while Portugal is absent, because they were primarily neighboring colonies of friendly European nations or ruling areas with barely developed local nationalism, or in areas with sensitive treaty port regimes like India and China where no one wants to upset the apple cart. The senior most Governor and "center" of the empire for this period is likely Angola.

There might be a delay, or a slight alteration in terms more to Britain's liking in the Hay-Pauncefote treaty over the Isthmian canal, because British interest and power projection toward that region will be enhanced.

When Spain and Portugal reappear in the southern hemisphere, they are very isolated from Europe and Africa. It makes it ever easier for them to remain neutral countries going forward. Spain finds itself shorn of Cuba, without a fight. Spain never fights America here. It may end up shorn of the Philippines at the same time, or it may end up having to fight a long, drawn out, Filipino insurgency, that it fights hard against than in OTL. Spain should have more ability and interest in holding on to Micronesian islands including Guam. Portugal can likely reinsert itself at the top of its global empire. Both will be net emigration countries. A difference will be that northern Europe and North America won't be so convenient for migration and seasonal work, so most emigrants from Spain will go to Spanish America, and most Portuguese emigrants will go to Brazil, Portuguese colonies, and Hawaii.

I think Portugal is still likely to turn Republican since its monarchy had been humiliated, but maybe that outcome could be changed.

For the second scenario in 1932:

Spanish Morocco would go with Spain. This might mean there might be a very, very narrow strait between New Zealand (former North Island) and French Morocco. Or they are connected by a very, very, very narrow isthmus. The Spanish Republic will have a great deal of social tensions, which will flare up, with more likelihood than not of turning into a coup and/or Civil War. However, not being on the strategic flank of Europe, foreign participation in combat and in arming the combatants will be much less than OTL. If the Popular Front is elected, the left is more likely to defeat the coup and win any subsequent civil war than not. The long-term effects on the rightist-leaning Portuguese Estado Novo next door would be interesting.

I think the colonies both Iberian countries still held in 1932 were at a low enough level of development and national consciousness that the status quo administrations stay in charge, and they will pick up where they leave off. Possibly, Chinese Nationalists pull a stunt occupying Macau. Or Chinese Communist guerrillas do so, forcing Nationalists to go after them, but it is an under 50-50 chance.

Australia, Australian Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand are all in the Atlantic. The 1930s are past the point of peak European emigration, and this Depression era was not a high emigration time anyway. But travel and the hunt for seasonal or temporary work would be more feasible between all of North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.

Without the Spanish Civil War to suck him and his volunteer forces to ever deeper involvement, Mussolini may have a dangerous amount extra static energy floating around in the years 1936-1939. He might deploy it in aggressive wars against either Yugoslavia or Greece. As a real longshot, he might do so against France, but it is doubtful. Or he may do less to put the brakes on Hitler in '38, or join him from the beginning of a war if it starts in 1939. If so, and he hasn't had wasteful medium sized wars in the mean time, his forces equipment may be better than OTL.

The Soviet Union, with any Spanish Civil War less relevant to them, may devote more attention, volunteers, and aid funds to supporting the Chinese Nationalist and United Front's fight against Japan.

With their physical location now closer to Europe, New Zealand, and especially Australia, may be less disinterested in continental security affairs and may signal supportiveness for British rearmament and firmness against Hitler as early as 1938, instead of flexing their regional autonomy muscles and fretting about not getting enough support against Japan.

[stevep]

  raharris1973 ,

   Just to check on one small point.  Was Gib brought along with the rest of Iberia to the Pacific or was it left behind as a small island in the new sea between France and N Africa?

  I didn't realise that New Zealand had a land border with Morocco.  Thought it was a narrow strait.  Having a land border is going to cause some interesting issues and as you say will make Britain interested in at least southern Morocco staying outside potentially hostile hands in the 1896 scenario although they would have to accept the status quo in 1932.

  Also looking at the world map have a number of S Pacific islands been transported to the middle of Africa or Arabia?   If so that's going to be deadly for the populations there.  Or is that an issue with the attempt to transplant the map as it also shows Egyptians and Indian locations now in the Pacific.

  In 1896 it could make for more support for imperial confederation among the dominions as their now all quite close together.  New Zealand could as you say end up becoming a full part of the UK, possibly even as a 5th kingdom or principality.  Australia is more likely to become a dominion as OTL. 

  While it strengthens the British empire in the N Atlantic and European spheres it does rather weaken its influence in E and SE Asia with interests in China and Malaya somewhat more isolated now.  Will definitely ease up on shipping for trade between the UK and the transplanted dominions.  Which will make a big boost for the latter's trade with the UK and the rest of Europe.  It actually makes traffic between much of Europe and N America somewhat more difficult as Australia especially is now in the way forcing shipping routes to be longer.

  A lot will depend on how completely the ASB remove climatic and other issues as if only drastic changes are suppressed much of Australia especially could be wetter and cooler while New Zealand is likely to be warmer and drier.  Iberia would be wetter I think and might now be more exposed to topical typhoons.  This could make both Australia and parts of Iberia capable of supporting more population.  Very much isolated from European influence they could have a radically different future, although they might now be a target for Japan.  - Especially if the new location means they keep control of the Philippines.

  Don't really know enough about the impact on the Spanish and Portuguese empires but as you say the Spanish on Cuba, not knowing their homeland will be returning shortly - albeit in a new locations - could end up accepting Cuban independence and retreating to Puerto Rico which I believe was strongly loyalist. 

  Suspect given its mood at the time the US would be somewhat defensive but also more hostile to Britain as they feel threatened by the sudden appearance of the southern Dominions [albeit neither were formally dominions at this stage] in the N Atlantic with Australia now being close to them.  [Also I notice very close to British colonies in the Caribbean so that could cause issues with the white Australia programme.

  In 1932 - then British interests have again been concentrated in the N Atlantic.  Circumstances are different and imperial federation is a dead letter as both are now dominions for a generation or so although with them along with Canada now close together it would be a boost for the imperial trade zone that was formed about this time as the UK finally abandon free trade.  Japan is already an issue in the east with its invasion of Manchuria but this will be less of a concern to ANZ. 

  Spain is likely still to have some unrest and probably military coups against the republican government - although here the Moroccan based army Franco used OTL is a bloody long way from Spain.  Mind you a lot could depend on its relations with the Philippines and Japan who with the US are now the big regional powers.  [With the US deep in isolationism Japan is going to have more influence here, although other than regarding the Philippines its probably not going to be very interested in the displayed Iberia until later in the decade.]  However other European powers are going to have a lot less impact on the area and I can't see Germany or even Italy which still has some overseas possessions in Africa as a stepping stone to it having any military impacts.  Which not only affects Spain but also Germany as it won't have the OTL training ground.

  Agree that Mussolini will have his army in better condition without its involvement in Spain but would he use that elsewhere?  As you suggest some attempts to strong-arm Yugoslavia or Greece although if done prior to a general war breaking out Italy could find itself rather isolated.  I suspect he will be itching to do something and could end up attacking Ethiopia earlier but whether that would make a difference in the run up to WWII I don't know.

  If WWII still occurs and things initially go similarly to OTL Britain is in a stronger position in Europe and the N Atlantic with imports from ANZ much easier available as well as some of its manpower.  Plus they and Papua New Guinea would provide bases for protecting trade across the Atlantic or down to the southern Atlantic.  There might be issues with a land border between NZ and Vichy France if that still occurs.  Also with Iberia being absent its not going to be a potential source of raw materials for the European Axis.  Its possible that a Nazi Germany that still succeeds in emerging and then conquering France might try and invade New Zealand although that could be a big ask given the allied naval superiority.

  We are weaker in the western Pacific and possibly N Africa as ANZ manpower, bases and resources would be less available for supporting those areas.  Also if Spain still goes fascist its possible it might become an ally of Japan - although mutual racism and cultural differences could make that somewhat of an unstable alliance.  The DEI - if their homeland is overrun as OTL - would be even more difficult to defend, along with Malaya.

  Anyway initial thoughts on the issue.

 

[575]

With the stasis in both scenarios sealanes are being disrupted and the disappearance of the Iberian Peninsular may make for some uneasiness and concern. Also the stasis fields of the North and Central Atlantic will deliver much fantasy and seamans tales.
As stevep points to whats happening with Gib and also how's Tangier faring at least in the 1932 scenario. I would expect the 1896 Spanish Morocco to be smaller than depicted but information is scarce.
It isn't shown on the map but I expect Spanish Morocco and assorted isles to have followed to the South Pacific even if not on the map.
With the position of NZ the weather in Western Europe may be slightly different - NZ getting a lot of precipitation and shelter the Bay of Biscay from some storms.

Regarding the 1896 scenario I'll go with they two of You and would see a large part of Danish emigrees and possibly other Scandinavians opting for Oz or due to cheaper tickets NZ now Northern Island rather than US or Canada. An interesting effect would be the Maori of NZ and Indigenous of New Guinea in a European context. Denmark may possibly direct more export of its agricultural produce to the Scandinavians and Germany with the presence of NZ in almost British home waters.
I'm wondering somewhat on the position of France as its virtually surrounded by British Territory - Fashoda not happening?
How about the Moroccan Crisis of 1906? Guess the British will twart everything moving into the Moroccan territory be it German, French, Italian!
Italy is now on the shores of the extended Atlantic waters with the Med becoming an arm of it with more tidal effects which may have some effect on shipping and sea shores though probably not much except in erosion.

1932 - the Sanjurjada coup in August 1932 may still occur but removed far from the Pope and traditional Big Brother north of the Pyrenees as well as Sovietunion they will very much be on their own. The coup will be quenced and so I guess the 1936 one if it occurs. Even if the Spanish Morocco accompagnies the Iberian Peninsular to the South Pacific its questionable if Franco will get a plane to fly from the Canaries to Morocco and then get German Aircraft to ferry to Spain not considering the loss of proximity to Rome may have of impact on the Spanish.
The Sovietunion may be in worse ways than OTL without the Spanish Gold Hoard so may actually be able to field less support for the CCP and indeed so if AH still crops up which I would expect.
WWII may take a way other course than OTL - the Atlantic will be a RN lake with a base at Auckland the RN will be close to Italy too; RAF bomber bases in NZ (former North Isle) will be somewhere around former Madrid making for a long flight but over friendly territory in case of German invasion. There will be no Fascist Spain to worry about and no need to court Portugal for Atlantic Bases but instead a huge British defensive perimeter around France! Excellent for choise of invasion should France fall. And for evacuation in that case from Bordeaux or Marseille/Toulon.
This state of affairs would also make shuttling of merchandise across the Atlantic a very different matter in case of both Britain and France all the way through friendly waters possibly in the case of OZ across on train making for goods from the US only having to travel from the Eastern Seaboard across some 7-900 NM? to Perth WA then across half the Atlantic by train then the only long seajourney with aircover out of southern NZ.
I'm rather uncertain of the possibility of Vichy France in NA except that Morocco will be a British Protectorate.
The OTL Middle Eastern Reserve.. not much way of OZ-NZ units going that way. If Britain wants to be able to act in the Far East the position of India will be vital though they dare build up the industrial base of India required?

[raharris1973]

Jun 24, 2022 14:22:22 GMT stevep said:

  We are weaker in the western Pacific and possibly N Africa as ANZ manpower, bases and resources would be less available for supporting those areas. 

Yes, Australia, and especially New Zealand were the biggest providers of "reverse Lend-Lease" for the US war effort in the Pacific, and now they are not well positioned to provide that service.