Kaiserreich a TL: the Essays

[michelvan]

Jul 11, 2022 15:32:06 GMT stevep said:

be assuming that the Ottoman empire survives in some form and remains allied to the Greater German empire

in current Roadmap collapse Russia, Ottoman and Austria-Hungery after War
under current situation could war at west front ended in 1915 while east front could continue to 1918 like OTL

the Ottomans were lost cause it was collapsing since 1909, the War accelerate the collapse in combination with genocide
While British and French were eager to cut out the best piece from Ottoman empire.

Similar issue had Austria-Hungary what let in 1917 to its implosion as their member state went own way...

on Simon darkshade excellent analyse
Point 2. i'm very aware of that special that German after WW1 move the Northfrench Coal and Industrial belt into Kingdom Of Belgium what little more west wards.
Also the Communist leaders in France also there for they looking for help in USSR who support them for Cause.
The french leader put all there hope in Revenge weapons (arme vengeance AV) there analog to V1 but filled with Gas as weapon of mass destruction
but not get the hope reaction of fear and surrender, instead the Enrage Germans carpet bomb french cities also with Gas later Nuclear !
(i could even shorten this down short war analog to invasion of 1940 france.)
a similar Tactic used against USSR here is main goal to push Red Army out Poland, baltic and Ukraine and conquer Baku cutting of the Oil supply from Soviet industry
While Chinese to liberate Mongolia and move to Lake Baikai and occupy the area binding siberian units needed on Soviet West-front

Jul 11, 2022 12:07:27 GMT simon darkshade said:

A German-Soviet War with the Americans and British friendly to Germany can be done.

in this war IS Britain and USA allies with Germans against Evil Communist and for USA also against Japan were Germany has score to settle...
here get Germany full support in raw material and hardware needed to support the war also with troops from Ukraine and other europeans states.

[stevep]

Jul 10, 2022 18:39:48 GMT michelvan said:

Jul 10, 2022 14:19:21 GMT simon darkshade said:

1.) What is the end point you want? A surviving German Empire or something a bit more than that?

I want surviving German Empire for 1980s or Groß Deutsches Reich,
France becoming Communist after WW1 like Soviet union what let second great war in 1941 to 1946

Jul 10, 2022 14:19:21 GMT simon darkshade said:

2.) How flexible are you willing to be and how far back are you willing to go?

for moment i flexible to do anything to make this work.
Even Remove that giant Radio antenna the France Military had in Paris, The Eiffel-tower, or remove Theodore Roosevelt


Original Road map

With Pod in 1917 get Germany chance to win, but it's a Pyrrhic victory
in east they can only create Free Poland and Kurland, but Russian get under control of bolsheviks.
in West they gain Belgium & Luxemburg and defeat France
But Germany remain in a Cold war between British Empire and USA (both have there Problems under each other)
To make matter worst the German Allies Austria-hungary and Ottoman Empire collapse
During WW1 dies certain Hitler, Göring and Hess

The Germans parts of former Austria-hungary get incorporated into German Empire
Belgium move little bit to west and get Federalized, while province of Liege become part of Prussia
Luxemburg is now part of Empire. (Bavaria)
On colonies Germany lost allot, but gain new one from France and Belgium
And are able to form a Mini "Mittleaftika" and a new Pacific colony.
new nation in East Europe and in Middle east

1920s-1930s
There will be a world economic crisis like OTL
France becomes a anti-Semitic Communist state, allot of Jews fled to Belgium or German Empire
like Marcel Bloch (OTL Marcel Dassault)
in USSR Leo Trotsky become leader, because Stalin get executed during Russian Civil war
The French and Soviets make secret arrangement for rearmament for attacking The German Empire.
Spanish Civil war who rise the tension between Europeans states and USSR
what end in German support victory for the Royalist junta under General Emilio Mola.
in Europe face rise of Communist (revolution export by Trotsky)
National China formed, with close ties to German Empire as Allies
LZ129 Hindenburg Disaster, German Navy abandon the Airship in favor of Airplane
normalization of relations between Germany, USA and Britain

1940s
1941 - WW2 start during funeral of Emperor Wilhelm II
France and USSR attack German Empire
While Japan attack Pearl harbor and conquer Asia and part Pacific (Some german Colonies)
USA, Britain, China and Germany become allies (the Enemy of my enemies is my friend).
introduction of new technology like Jetplane and Atomic bomb (Germany) and Rocket (France)
After heavy fighting the Germans can push French out west Germany and Belgium
And Soviets out of Poland, German Army marching into USSR and France
1946 - Germany manage to gain there objectives, by dropping series of atomic bombs.
Empire of Japan, People Republic France and Soviet Union surrender or are destroy.
USA and Britain are shocked by the brutality of German use of Atomic power
National China consolidated under Chiang Kai-shek
new nations of Ukraine, Baltic states and Russian.

1950s-1960s
Morgentau Plan for de militarization and de industrialization of France and west Russia
Second Cold war USA and Britain form a alliance against German Empire
1949 USA-Britain alliance test there atomic bomb
R&D race for best Bomber, best jet-fighter, best ICBM, let to Space Race
Werner Von Braun developed out french rocket hardware the First German ICBM
later moon rocket label Saturn used in Moon race.
German "quantum leap" in technology like Computers and consumer electronics

1970s-1980s
Social changes in German Empire.
Economic crisis
French extremist start War of Terror against German Empire
Cold War get more intense as USA-Britan try to keep up with German High tech.
Uprise in colonies and decolonization.

1990s-2010s
End of Cold War, Happy end or new conflicts ?

  michelvan ,

a)  When you say a surviving German empire then how much reform would you plan for it, or would it be the militaristic state that existed pre-1914?  There is capacity, especially after more than a few months of warfare for political reform as the casualties and social costs of such a conflict would be a good driver for serious pressure for reform.  If it stays as military dominated as OTL then it faces two issues. Its zero sum mentality - that it could only be secure by making everybody else insecure - will continue to leave it largely politically isolated.  Also such a system will in the longer term make it economically and socially less successful, especially with the likelihood that other nations will response and reform.

b)  I can't see France becoming communist in the short term after WWI because it would be too vulnerable, both to a triumphant Germany which might use such a government as an excuse for new attacks and annexations and to the other great powers as France is a lot smaller and also a lot more accessible than the bulk of the Russian empire.  It might end up going communist later as a result of continued problems for the French government, which are likely to be worse than OTL given the sort of draconian terms a German leadership is likely to impose on it.  However as Simon says France, especially after a heavy defeat and harsh peace is not going to be a serious threat to Germany as long as the latter isn't crippled by internal problems.

c)  What do you mean by Belgium being moved a bit to the west and federalized?  I see your having parts of it as well as the former Luxembourg annexed to imperial Germany.  Is there going to be forced population movements?  If not your going to have a lot of dissatisfied subjects who if they ever get civil rights are likely to be a loud source of opposition to the regime.  Ditto of course with territory annexed from a defeated France.  If you do drive out the locals and settle with Germans its going to leave lasting enmity and also distrust of Germany by other nations.  Is the rump Belgium going to be forced into the German empire -as another semi-colonial state like Alsace-Lorraine was?

d)  Even if several leading [OTL] Nazis die in the conflict this time around your still going to have the problem of ultra-nationalist feeling in Germany - possibly other countries as well - and it could be even stronger in a war Germany wins as it will strengthen the social Darwinism ideas that were worrying popular at the time.

  Overall for a German Imperial dynasty to survive its really going to need to move towards a constitutional monarchy rather than the sort of aristocratic/military dominated state of OTL 1914 Germany.  How that comes about would depend on the circumstances.

Other points

e)  Likely that the Ottoman empire will collapse but quite possible that the Hapsburg empire could survive, possibly breaking down relatively peaceful at a later stage and Germany getting the additional territories and populations you want.    Such a Germany would be clearly the dominant power on the continent provided it can keep down the enemies it makes and stay internally stable.  Its going to be significantly more powerful than Britain due to its population and territory size even with much needed reforms in Britain, which is probably more likely in this scenario but it will be eclipsed over time by the US unless the latter is permanently weakened in some way.  In part because it has a smaller population and resource base that the US can develop and because by its nature its almost certain to have neighbours that view it with deep mistrust for a couple of generations or so.

f)  I see a basis for a victorious Germany to get back most of its pre-war colonies but not really for massive gains in terms of new ones.  Especially in the Pacific as that is unlikely to go down well with either the US or Japan.

g)  Not sure why a communist France is likely to become significantly more anti-Semitic. 

h)  Would say a world depression or other great economic problem is less likely in this scenario because the world economy will be a lot less unified.  Germany will dominate a large bloc in Europe and the US will have its own protected market and your likely to see Britain move to some form of imperial protection earlier and more completely, along with probably links with some of the smaller European nations which wish to avoid German economic control.  There might be others.  As such a problem in one region is less likely to cause a world wide collapse as the US won't have the level of economic domination it had OTL.  However if you want a worsening of political relations then some other issues could come up.

i)  Not sure that France could effectively re-militarise unless there is a considerable relaxation of hostilities by Berlin - possibly some political reforms in Germany here and a feeling that they have been too harsh on France - as many thought OTL over treatment of Germany after WWI.

j)  IF France and Russia do get a chance to fight a new war with Germany to challenge its domination then their unlikely to seek additional enemies by fighting Britain or the US - or supporting Japan which is never likely to be friendly to a Russian state - if the latter takes the OTL path of right wing militarism, invades China then ultimately goes to war with the UK/US.

k)  Not sure if Germany, especially if initially on the defensive in a war with rump France and this Russia is going to be 1st to a nuke as the US again has markedly greater resources.  Even if Germany has by this time liberalized considerably.  Or its going to be in a position to launch attacks on Japan.  Possibly Russia although the distances are large here.  While if France is at war with the UK and US as well as imperial Germany then I can't really see it surviving long enough to be nuked unless Germany is pretty damned close to nukes when the war starts.  More likely France is under Anglo-German occupation by this stage. [With possibly a US zone as well]

l)  Similarly, unless its character has changed drastically I can't see the UK supporting a de-industrialization of its parts of France simply because its not in Britain's interests.  Quite possibly the US if it has a share won't support that either.  At least not in the longer term as it realises how big an economic disaster that would be.

m)  Why do you assume that Germany maintains a technological lead over its rivals in the new cold war?  I can see it being a lot closer than OTL cold war because of the structural problems imposed on the USSR by its political system but a UK-US lead bloc is likely to be a serious competitor in all levels against a greater Germany empire.  Doubly so if the latter hasn't liberalized considerably compered to OTL 1917/18 Germany.  If those don't occur until the 1970-80s then Germany will struggle to keep up, especially if its still seeking to maintain a large empire of subjects states both inside and outside Europe as it will face similar problems to those of the Soviets even if its better at handling the needs of its home population.

  I think you need to clarify what sort of imperial Germany you desire in this time period and why it tends to be so politically isolated.  If it continues to be highly militaristic then that is likely to be a result but its also going to be a marked handicap to its maintenance of the sort of power your assuming for it.  If you assume a more liberal Germany, while still steadily moving towards a constitutional monarchy then its more likely to have the sort of economic and technological success but is going to be less likely to have continued tensions with its neighbours.

[michelvan]

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

a)  When you say a surviving German empire then how much reform would you plan for it, or would it be the militaristic state that existed pre-1914? 

Wilhelm II made vage promise of reform and he will face some harsh decision by Reichstag and Preußischen Rat, but like he always say I love Democracy but i give a crap about socialism...

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

b)  I can't see France becoming communist in the short term after WWI because it would be too vulnerable

The third republic will remain after WW1 but is more unstable as OTL with great depression will communism rise in France

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

c)  What do you mean by Belgium being moved a bit to the west and federalized?

Germany had several plans with Belgium i combine them to this scenario
1. occupy Belgium got federalised (happened and worked well),
2. King Albert abdicate for his son Leopold until he attain one's majority, has Belgium as German General as regent.
3. The Colony of Congo is to hand over to German authorities (with or without compensation)
4. Border corrections it complicated, Belgium Luxemburg reunite with duchy of Luxemburg now part of Bavaria (by Marriage) and is part of Greater German Reich.
everthing right bank of river Mass is hand over to Prussia (except Luxemburg), The Belgium province of Liege lose 2/3 Territory were local belgium face: learn German or leave !
why ? because a verse in "The Song of the Germans" define German territory as From the Maas to the Memel and From the Etsch to the Belt rivers (yes we are romantics...)
Three french Departments had incorporated into Belgium, Pas-de-Calais, Nord, with them France would loose it coal mines and North Industrial zone
part of Departments Ardenne is cut of and handed to Belgium
the port Calais become Belgium ! that would consolidate the British a bit

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

d)  Even if several leading [OTL] Nazis die in the conflict this time around your still going to have the problem of ultra-nationalist feeling in Germany

Yeah is a problem, but that extrem murderous nationalist came after lost WW1 and was exploited by certain Austrian evil visions...
i guess with successful won WW1 we german less prone to this extremism in 1930s...

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

e)  Likely that the Ottoman empire will collapse but quite possible that the Hapsburg empire could survive

the AH Collapse happen any way the issue was that Hungarian government completely misunderstood the Situation, as Emperor Carl try to proposed confederacy, the Hungarian Prime minister refused violently
Ironic he was stab in back by own hungarian parliament that wanted also separate from Austria while the others were preparing to be independent Nations..

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

f)  I see a basis for a victorious Germany to get back most of its pre-war colonies but not really for massive gains in terms of new ones.

they focus on Africa and Mittelafrika basically German colonies united with help of Belgium and French territory.

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

g)  Not sure why a communist France is likely to become significantly more anti-Semitic. 

France was highly anti-Semitic see The Dreyfus affair, after lost WW1 Franch will be extrem anti-Semitic, in TL allot French jews left France for Belgium or Germany
One of them Marcel Bloch Aircraft constructor, in Germany, he change his name to Marcel Stürmer in 1960s. he will build one excellent Jet-fighter of his time the Heinkel Blitz (OTL Marcel Bloch became Dassault and build the Mirage)

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

h)  Would say a world depression or other great economic problem is less likely in this scenario because the world economy will be a lot less unified. 

The issue with world depression it startet as finance disaster in USA, follow bankrupt of Industry and Banks, what let economic chain reaction, it will also impacted the German Reich and it Zollverein but it will be less drastic as OTL Weimar Republic

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

i)  Not sure that France could effectively re-militarise unless there is a considerable relaxation of hostilities by Berlin

They get help by USSR also make Germany intelligent service blunders not to check activity in Algeria and other colonies that France still has.

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

j)  IF France and Russia do get a chance to fight a new war with Germany to challenge its domination then their unlikely to seek additional enemies by fighting Britain or the US - or supporting Japan which is never likely to be friendly to a Russian state - if the latter takes the OTL path of right wing militarism, invades China then ultimately goes to war with the UK/US.

Like i say the communist fight a ideological War, rational thinking is first they abandon see Hitler, Japan will like OTL and they will have treaty with USSR not to attack them like OTL so they can concentrate on USA Germany and China...

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

k)  Not sure if Germany, especially if initially on the defensive in a war with rump France and this Russia is going to be 1st to a nuke as the US again has markedly greater resources.

Here has Germany access to resources either by their colony or by their Allies, hey Germany send small fleet with there heavy battleship Kaiser Wilhelm II. and Aircraft carrier Graf Zeppelin to battle in Midway.
Also is issue who got the best scientist ? again analog to situation OTL, the Nazi had crapy scientist, wrong ideas and ideological ban on anything jewish physics, while in USA european Jewish scientist were cooking plutonium in new mexico..
Here role is inverse, there is no holocaust so the Jewish scientist working for Germans military, giving USA and Britain a disadvantage lack of scientist in nuclear physic !

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

l)  Similarly, unless its character has changed drastically I can't see the UK supporting a de-industrialization of its parts of France simply because its not in Britain's interests. 

The German do a TOTAL de-industrialization of France into agricultural state, Britain and USA sharply protest against that what is starting upcoming Cold war, the Remaining European members of collation sign treaty that bring United States of Europe in 1950
Britain that already lose economic and Defence pack in Commonwealth of Nation manage to form that into EU and NATO like organisation, simply allot Commonwealth members are neighbour of some german possession like Mittleafrika or support infrastructure of German military

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

m)  Why do you assume that Germany maintains a technological lead over its rivals in the new cold war? 

Fortschritt durch Technik like we Germans say, with R&D program in various sectors
Economic the world is divided to two blocks USA/Commonwealth of Nation and United States of Europe/Mittleafrika and capitalist republic of China,
China had no communism government, the capitalist made some mistakes, but in general is this china economical and financial a gigantic market for Europa.
and Chinese are crazy after German products like high performance computer by ZUSE, the luxury Cars by AUTO UNION, or Weapons systems like battle tank Löwe

on liberalized, it will be a slow process in Germany that start after WW1 with DADAISM and other movements and chances in Laws, slower as our time, the youth revolt of 1968 will happen later in German Empire.
and will be stand off between, Law/order and Military vs analog of May 1968 this could be interesting climax

Jul 11, 2022 17:13:40 GMT stevep said:

I think you need to clarify what sort of imperial Germany you desire in this time period and why it tends to be so politically isolated.

that dam good advice !!! thanks Stevep

[michelvan]

This is world Map of TL in 1980s under base of 1917 victory by Germany (have to adapt that fast)



Grey is United States of Europa
Brown is Commonwealth of Nation
India is a confederation

Green is a united Arabia ruled under moderate Hussein clan.

That strange line in Russia is frontier of sphere of influence between Germany and China everything east is there's,
(Mongola is bigger an Allies of China)

the two white spots are
a Jewish sanctuary for survivors of Soviet pogrom and exiled here, under toleration by Chines Government

International Suez canal zone, establish after 1975 suez crisis
in short Nasser nationalise the canal and use it as political bargain
He miscalculate the situation
the Germans,use gunboat diplomacy in fact they show up with two battle ships two Aircraft carriers, also the British and American...

[stevep]

Jul 11, 2022 21:03:34 GMT michelvan said:

This is world Map of TL in 1980s under base of 1917 victory by Germany (have to adapt that fast)



Grey is United States of Europa
Brown is Commonwealth of Nation
India is a confederation

Green is a united Arabia ruled under moderate Hussein clan.

That strange line in Russia is frontier of sphere of influence between Germany and China everything east is there's,
(Mongola is bigger an Allies of China)

the two white spots are
a Jewish sanctuary for survivors of Soviet pogrom and exiled here, under toleration by Chines Government

International Suez canal zone, establish after 1975 suez crisis
in short Nasser nationalise the canal and use it as political bargain
He miscalculate the situation
the Germans,use gunboat diplomacy in fact they show up with two battle ships two Aircraft carriers, also the British and American...

  Replying to both the map and details in your previous post.

  I can't see an autocratic and militaristic Germany without reforms being able to subject such a massive area and range of people without heavy social, economic and probably also human costs for German and probably far larger ones for the subject populations.  I could see a Germany that wins WWI then sees a substantial amount of reform and within the broad scope of your TL becoming the dominant economic and political power in a European Federation but not if its so determined to permanently impoverish very large proportions of those states.  Or when ethnic cleansing has been used in other areas.

  I still find extremely unlikely that a communist Russia and France are not only able to rearm to such an extent then suicidal going to war with Britain and the US when those nations are already in a limited cold war with Germany.

  I would also be interested in how a united Ireland ends up in this German bloc.  In the scenario you suggest there's no way Ireland would become independent in the early 20's as it would be an existential crisis for Britain with a powerful and violently expansive German empire just across the channel.

  Those are the primary doubts, along with the suggestion that such a Germany would have the continued and large technological dominance you suggest.

[michelvan]

Jul 12, 2022 12:15:47 GMT stevep said:

I would also be interested in how a united Ireland ends up in this German bloc.

i forgot in original scenario, arrive the German weapons to there Irish destination in 1916 and is used in uprise and Civil War, Irish are grateful to the Germany.

Jul 12, 2022 12:15:47 GMT stevep said:

I can't see an autocratic and militaristic Germany without reforms being able to subject such a massive area and range of people without heavy social, economic and probably also human costs for German and probably far larger ones for the subject populations. 

your absolut right about that Stevep,

To imagine, people in German Empire were so indoctrinated to follow orders from men in Uniform, that in 1906 a imposter in second hand Uniform, rounded up a number of soldiers, police officers under his "command", and "confiscated" more than 4000 marks from a municipal treasury of Köpenick !
Even the Nazi exploited this and the Prussian Military traditions for there perverted goals...

On aristocracy WW1 destroyed there reputation so far that monarchy was abolish in 1918, i think that in TL the War will do similar effect in combination of needed social reforms
in original TL Prussia went so far to replace in 1919, the "constitutional monarchy" by "parliamentary monarchy" much to horror of Wilhelm II after he not fulfil his promise of social reforms.

[simon darkshade]

The notion of a hostile Ireland being merrily tolerated by Britain AND the USA is not at all plausible. Similarly, Germany getting all of its colonies back, plus Portuguese Africa and the Belgian Congo isn’t plausible with a British Empire that is not run by German puppets.

Africa is not going to magically get the borders of @ and the notion that there would be a Nasser and a Suez Crisis with such radical butterflies right from the beginning of the 20th Century is just intellectually slapdash work.

The whole expanded timeline as it currently stands is on the level of some of the worse German TLs of the bad old days of AH.com.

I’ve read your posts for most of the 15 years that we’ve both been on that other site and have been consistently impressed by your space knowledge and use of it. This doesn’t seem up to the same standards in terms of ideas.

My thinking in brief as it is late:
- You can get a surviving German Empire from WW1
- It can lead a strong bloc in Central Europe for some time
- It can kick on until the 1980s in some form, but with change

- It cannot simply brush the Soviets aside in anywhere near a realistic scenario
- It cannot compete with the USA on any level
- It sets off alarm bells in London as the classic Continental nightmare scenario. They will not take this lying down
- France is not going to be courting a two front war with Les Anglo-Americans and Le Boche, Red or not

The best hope for Germany is allied with the USA and British Empire, not against it.

[michelvan]

Thanks for critic, Simon darkshade

Like i say is now old version have to start from Scratch new TL
stuff like Mittelafrika will now very different.

Jul 12, 2022 16:46:13 GMT simon darkshade said:

- France is not going to be courting a two front war with Les Anglo-Americans and Le Boche, Red or not

fanatic people are irrational, see certain "socialist" who had declare war on USA in middle his invasion of Russia and Afrika...

for moment i Look for WW1 won by the Germans and see further.

[stevep]

Jul 12, 2022 18:14:17 GMT michelvan said:

Thanks for critic, Simon darkshade

Like i say is now old version have to start from Scratch new TL
stuff like Mittelafrika will now very different.

Jul 12, 2022 16:46:13 GMT simon darkshade said:

- France is not going to be courting a two front war with Les Anglo-Americans and Le Boche, Red or not

fanatic people are irrational, see certain "socialist" who had declare war on USA in middle his invasion of Russia and Afrika...

for moment i Look for WW1 won by the Germans and see further.

  I would agree that fanatics can be bloody stupid and the fascists in WWII are an excellent example of this.  However both Japan and then Germany went to war with the US [and in the former case the UK] because they felt clearly threatened by their actions, with the US strongly supporting both the western allies and Soviets against Germany and China against Japan, including in the latter stage organising sanctions that were seen as fatal to the Japanese empire. 

  In the suggested scenario both France and Russia are already waging a war against a greater Germany and its allies/puppets which isn't being as decisive as they were hoping for.  Are either the UK or US showing clear signs of support of Germany in this scenario which might make the Soviets [both French and Russian] think that war with them was going to occur, possibly in the short term?  I could see, if you have the massed gas attacks proposed, deep criticism of the Soviet powers but is there clear economic or other forms of support for the German bloc by the UK/US?  Otherwise its not just a stupid idea for the Soviets to do a dow on them it has no logical purpose at all even in the minds of the deranged elements who govern them.

[michelvan]

I looking now for options 1914-1915 were German could win here

issue is to find PODs were German can win the battle in 6 weeks
one option is that Germans already putting heavy guns, ready for Fortress of Liege so there no delay in conquest.
Also that Planned invasion of South Netherlands is done to by past Liege (although if as to be modified to by past the wet area of River Mass)
That would allow faster movement of right wing instead wait until Liege falls.

The demolition of Eiffel Tower in 1910,
The Tower play important role in War like listen to German Radio and Jammed them.
in 1909/10 were the permit renewed with one vote, in favour to let tower stand.

On one POD i have doubt
It about Delay declaration of War by British Empire.
On Saturday August 1, 1914. Prime-minister Herbert Asquith wanted to visit town of Chester, then spent the weekend at friend Lord Sheffield.
he not made the trip and he spent with Cabinet discussing the situation
but what if he went to visit and Cabinet consulted without Asquith over weekend?
Were point to enter the War let to dispute under pro and contra
As Asquith return on Monday only to find Ministers have resign and Government dissolve,
new Coalition Government is formed on initiative by Winston Churchill follow by Declaration of War by Britain on 10 August 1914.

realistic senario?

[stevep]

Jul 17, 2022 15:15:13 GMT michelvan said:

I looking now for options 1914-1915 were German could win here

issue is to find PODs were German can win the battle in 6 weeks
one option is that Germans already putting heavy guns, ready for Fortress of Liege so there no delay in conquest.
Also that Planned invasion of South Netherlands is done to by past Liege (although if as to be modified to by past the wet area of River Mass)
That would allow faster movement of right wing instead wait until Liege falls.

The demolition of Eiffel Tower in 1910,
The Tower play important role in War like listen to German Radio and Jammed them.
in 1909/10 were the permit renewed with one vote, in favour to let tower stand.

On one POD i have doubt
It about Delay declaration of War by British Empire.
On Saturday August 1, 1914. Prime-minister Herbert Asquith wanted to visit town of Chester, then spent the weekend at friend Lord Sheffield.
he not made the trip and he spent with Cabinet discussing the situation
but what if he went to visit and Cabinet consulted without Asquith over weekend?
Were point to enter the War let to dispute under pro and contra
As Asquith return on Monday only to find Ministers have resign and Government dissolve,
new Coalition Government is formed on initiative by Winston Churchill follow by Declaration of War by Britain on 10 August 1914.

realistic senario?

  michelvan,

  Sorry about the late response but the heat wave affected both me and my PC so been having some down time for a few days.

  By ~July 1914 I can't see any real option for either Britain not going to war after the attack on Belgium - which an attack on the Netherlands as well would make even worse in terms of the threat and the public outrage - or of Germany winning the war within 6 weeks.  France simply has interior lines so once they realise the threat from the north they can switch forces to counter the German attack, which will be exhausted due to marching that distance, especially since many reports mention how hot that summer was.  If they inflicted a serious defeat on the BEF or marginally greater losses on the French forces and then other strategic and political changes result then they might win in a few months.  Or just possibly the Germans decide to go for a limited rather than a crushing victory then they can persuade the allies to come to terms for limited losses but that seems unlikely given the aims of the German elite.  - See Wilhelm II's comments to his Parliament in today's WWI day by day post.

  Steve

[michelvan]

Looking true the Schlieffen-Plan the invasion of Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands was needed
Netherlands for a fast move of 1th Army to by past Liege fortress ring, what was the 2th Army target
The city of Liege was crucial for German offensive because it Railways connections.

but Schlieffen planned invasion of Netherlands had Two issue:
One the 1th Army had to move true Wetlands of Mass valley.
Second had first Army to move over 500 km to reach there destination south of Paris in under 6 weeks,
They had to move 20km/day ON FOOT !

it make sense that Moltke jr. change the Schlieffen-Plan by removing Invasion of Netherlands.
but made to many strategic blunders in modification and bad executing it during War.
Like Ignoring Russia and give 5th and 6th Army free hand to attack french Fortress what was NOT to happen under Schlieffen-Plan.
then unauthorised actions by General von Kluck, what let to failure of main goal of Schlieffen-Plan and 40 km wide gap for French-British force to exploit.
After that Moltke jr. lost the overview of battle and had nervous breakdown and Was replaced...

The Schlieffen-Plan even let french enter German territory to bind there Forces there, while German Armies move from Behind.

Replace Moltke jr. would be solution ? there sufficiently issue with Moltke that could let to Scandal that Emperor has to replace him
only question Who: Ludendorf or von Falkenhayn ?

[michelvan]

Chronological PODs needed
are any errors i overlooked ?


1. The demolition of Eiffel Tower in 1910, The Tower play important role in War like listen to German Radio and Jammed them. (in 1909/10 were the permit renewed by one vote, in favour to let tower stand.)

2. The german 2th Army bring heavy Guns from begin to Liege and conquer the city, While 1th Army bypass Liege, moving true Belgium.

3. There is no move of german HQ from Coblentz to Luxemburg on 29 August 1914 - That's the point were Moltke lost overview of entire Frontline !

4. Moltke order Von Kluck to stay in formation and encircle Paris as planned and attack the back of BEF and French Armies ! (Von Kluck unauthorised move to east happen on 29 august 1914)

5. Moltke refuse request of 5th Army to attack French fortresses Verdun and order to support the german 4th army against the french 4th Army

6. BEF Field Marshal French start to panic, as he get information there German forces behind the BEF troops and in front of them. he order retreating to Paris, leaving a gap for 1th Army

This let to complete different battle of Marne 6 September-10 September 1914.
Were 1th army are at town of Melun forming danger to french 5th, 9th and 4th army who face the german 2th, 3th and 4th army (with support of 5th army)
For marshal Joffre the situation is serious, he try to contact BEF Field Marshal French who on move to Paris with his Troops and unable to response.
So Joffre must made decision: the french 6th Army has to defend Paris at any cost and retreat to Defence line around Paris and stay there.
while german 1th army has chance to attack the french 5th army from side with help of german 2th army.
in mean time BEF arrive at Defence line around Paris were there attack by french soldiers in panic, believed they are Germans forces !

General d'Esperey takes the decision to do a strategic retreat to get in better position to defend his remain of his 5th army
Only this help to unite the German 1th with 2th, 3th, 4th and 5th Army to form one frontline against french armies.

This could be moment were French Government surrender or is second battle needed for that ?

[stevep]

Jul 27, 2022 11:48:17 GMT michelvan said:

Chronological PODs needed
are any errors i overlooked ?


1. The demolition of Eiffel Tower in 1910, The Tower play important role in War like listen to German Radio and Jammed them. (in 1909/10 were the permit renewed by one vote, in favour to let tower stand.)

2. The german 2th Army bring heavy Guns from begin to Liege and conquer the city, While 1th Army bypass Liege, moving true Belgium.

3. There is no move of german HQ from Coblentz to Luxemburg on 29 August 1914 - That's the point were Moltke lost overview of entire Frontline !

4. Moltke order Von Kluck to stay in formation and encircle Paris as planned and attack the back of BEF and French Armies ! (Von Kluck unauthorised move to east happen on 29 august 1914)

5. Moltke refuse request of 5th Army to attack French fortresses Verdun and order to support the german 4th army against the french 4th Army

6. BEF Field Marshal French start to panic, as he get information there German forces behind the BEF troops and in front of them. he order retreating to Paris, leaving a gap for 1th Army

This let to complete different battle of Marne 6 September-10 September 1914.
Were 1th army are at town of Melun forming danger to french 5th, 9th and 4th army who face the german 2th, 3th and 4th army (with support of 5th army)
For marshal Joffre the situation is serious, he try to contact BEF Field Marshal French who on move to Paris with his Troops and unable to response.
So Joffre must made decision: the french 6th Army has to defend Paris at any cost and retreat to Defence line around Paris and stay there.
while german 1th army has chance to attack the french 5th army from side with help of german 2th army.
in mean time BEF arrive at Defence line around Paris were there attack by french soldiers in panic, believed they are Germans forces !

General d'Esperey takes the decision to do a strategic retreat to get in better position to defend his remain of his 5th army
Only this help to unite the German 1th with 2th, 3th, 4th and 5th Army to form one frontline against french armies.

This could be moment were French Government surrender or is second battle needed for that ?

  I can't see the French surrendering at this stage as its not in their interests to.  Assuming all the above go right for the Germans and their forces are also then able to capture and hold Paris its in the French interest to fight on, at least for the moment.  This is because

a) This is an alliance war.  Russia and Britain - as well as Serbia - are still fighting and hence the war isn't lost.  Also at this point the vast majority of the German military are engaged in their invasions of France - along with Belgium and the Netherlands.  If France surrendered then this would be seen as a betrayal of their allies both in terms of the political/diplomatic sphere and because it would release a lot of those German forces to act against the French allies elsewhere.

b)  At this point had Germany made any public suggestions of what their war aims were.  [We know it was the destruction of France as an independent power capable of self-defence but would Paris know of this at the time.]  Even the 1st discussions in Germany, with the September 1914 proposals were pretty draconian, both in terms of France and also Belgium and ITTL probably the Netherlands as well.  For France to 'surrender' i.e. formally give up on defending itself would leave it totally exposed to German actions.  It might ask for an armistice but I suspect that would be accepted by Germany unless France was tied by measures that would mean it couldn't regroup and return to the fighting in the future.  I.e. probably the surrender of a lot of their military and/or assorted key defensive positions.

[michelvan]

Thank for answer Stevep

The french army is separate, the 6th army order hold Paris
while the German 1th 2th, 3th, 4th stand between Paris and french 5th, 9th and 4th at Marne
and french 3th 2th and 1th Army hold position against German 5th, 6th, 7th Army,
While BEF as issue with French defence at Paris (the french mistake them for Germans and open fire)

This is a pat situation that easy end in Trench warfare, not wanted by general and Me the author

Already on 2 September the French Government fled Paris toward Bordeaux together with 1/3 of Paris population...
(OTL The government returned to Paris on December 11, 1914)

Moltke has two options:
1. seek decide Victory in second Battle fighting french 5th, 9th and 4th at Marne and 3th 2th and 1th Army on German border.
2. attack Paris with 1th army, Paris is heavy defender by french 6th army, BEF and local Forces in two rings of Fortresses.


Joffre options also not better
1. seek decide Victory in second Battle fighting german 1th, 2th, 3th and 4th Army
2. strategic retreat of his armies toward Paris, but giving Germans more space to move
3. Invade Germany with 3th 2th and 1th Army in hope the Germans move their Forces away from Marne toward the German Border.

in mean time Germany control the Belgium Railway and bring resupply and reinforcement to frontline in France.