Pop culture and the butterfly effect

[Max Sinister]

(Re-posted from SLP.)

Many AH authors completely ignore culture, but that's not the point here.

The question is: What would happen to the pop culture (because this one would be in bigger danger in ATLs than older culture), if you are strict about the butterfly effect?

Let's say, your PoD is in WW2, maybe the Nazis even win - what happens to pop culture then?

Take George Lucas and Star Wars. He was born post-WW2, so he's butterflied away. Sure, there will be geeky types with similar interests - but will they also put all of his influences together, and even if yes, in the same way?

So I imagined that the elements of SW would end up scattered over many parts of TTL's geek culture, often in new contexts. We might get something like this:

Hans Solo, the cool rogue who steals stuff in the Nazi Reich and sometimes helps people, like a modern Robin Hood.
Characters named Skywalker and Starkiller.
Lightsabers.
The mountainous desert planet which is the only source for the crystals for the laser weapons.
That robot who looks like evil Maria from "Metropolis".
Asteroid belt chases.
Indofuturism instead of Japanese influences.
A movie called "Space cowboys", which would be Exactly What it Says... here. Set on a planet looking much like Tattooine. (Call it Tattooa.)
The phrase "May the force be with you!" - but in this world used for... Knights in space!
The name "R2D2" - but it's used for the new Technology, which can save the World.

Geeks in such an ATL would grow up with SW missing, although the familiar elements would still be around. Would they feel as if something important in their lives was missing, unconsciously? ;-)

[lordroel]

Jul 15, 2022 20:56:57 GMT Max Sinister said:

(Re-posted from SLP.)

Many AH authors completely ignore culture, but that's not the point here.

The question is: What would happen to the pop culture (because this one would be in bigger danger in ATLs than older culture), if you are strict about the butterfly effect?

Let's say, your PoD is in WW2, maybe the Nazis even win - what happens to pop culture then?

Take George Lucas and Star Wars. He was born post-WW2, so he's butterflied away. Sure, there will be geeky types with similar interests - but will they also put all of his influences together, and even if yes, in the same way?

So I imagined that the elements of SW would end up scattered over many parts of TTL's geek culture, often in new contexts. We might get something like this:

Hans Solo, the cool rogue who steals stuff in the Nazi Reich and sometimes helps people, like a modern Robin Hood.
Characters named Skywalker and Starkiller.
Lightsabers.
The mountainous desert planet which is the only source for the crystals for the laser weapons.
That robot who looks like evil Maria from "Metropolis".
Asteroid belt chases.
Indofuturism instead of Japanese influences.
A movie called "Space cowboys", which would be Exactly What it Says... here. Set on a planet looking much like Tattooine. (Call it Tattooa.)
The phrase "May the force be with you!" - but in this world used for... Knights in space!
The name "R2D2" - but it's used for the new Technology, which can save the World.

Geeks in such an ATL would grow up with SW missing, although the familiar elements would still be around. Would they feel as if something important in their lives was missing, unconsciously? ;-)

Always amazes me the Beatles mange to survive in a Germany wins scenario, they pop up in Fatherland among other.

[Max Sinister]

Jul 15, 2022 21:01:29 GMT lordroel said:

Always amazes me the Beatles mange to survive in a Germany wins scenario, they pop up in Fatherland among other.

The Fatherland scenario is at least possible: The PoD is in 1943, so all of them are already born or at least conceived, so they might meet again, and AFAIR the name "Beatles" is never mentioned.

Even if not: It's still possible that four blokes from Liverpool form a band and write at least one song containing the line "I wanna hold your haaand!" Even if they're different blokes. Morphic resonance or so, at Terry Pratchett would have said.

[simon darkshade]

The issue is that with a Nazi victory, the emergence of rock music is not at all guaranteed; the spread of rock to Britain is not guaranteed; and the continuation of National Service is guaranteed, removing that period where they were gallivanting around playing children's music.

Star Wars is not a given and the different elements of it are not givens.

[stevep]

Jul 16, 2022 3:22:03 GMT simon darkshade said:

The issue is that with a Nazi victory, the emergence of rock music is not at all guaranteed; the spread of rock to Britain is not guaranteed; and the continuation of National Service is guaranteed, removing that period where they were gallivanting around playing children's music.

Star Wars is not a given and the different elements of it are not givens.

  I would agree.  With such massive changes and a great threat on the doorstep of the west that seems far more threatening than the Soviets provided that it survives.  Even more than communism Nazi style fascism was a intensely canceristic system that without massive reform would devour everything in its power an a tremendous rate.  Especially since the extreme racial and nationalistic elements of the system limits its potential core support. 

  As such a Nazi Germany that somehow defeats the Soviets - which really needs a POD prior to mid 1942 - at the latest and also forces a peace with the western allies could well collapse under its own contradictions within a decade or so - although the human costs for the people it rules would very likely be appalling.  Probably sooner for a Nazi empire that manages to fight both western powers and Soviets to a standstill as they will have less resources and a greater threat.  Hopefully this collapse will be before their got a serious intercontinental nuclear force but it could still be fatal for Britain and other neighbouring 'free' areas.

  Until that happens the western powers will very likely stay markedly more conservative and socially reactionary.  With impacts on most of their technological development although some areas with direct military implications might be advanced faster than OTL.  You could then see quite a bounce back once the pressure was off but it could depend on how the Nazi empire ended and following factors.

  There will definitely be changes in pop culture and pressure for such, especially among the young even prior to this but how they develop would depend on a lot of variables. 

 

[Max Sinister]

Just one decade for a victorious Nazi Reich? Recently I thought that while the Soviet Union had lasted 70+ years, Franco's Spain and Salazar's Portugal had about half that lifespan. Coincidence? Would Hitler's successor have to worry about a very different 1968? Especially if he pushes natalism as if there was no tomorrow (like Ceaucescu did!).

But other than that - writing books and making music isn't a very expensive hobby. Certainly Anglo culture would be poorer in a Nazis Win TL, but not dead.

[stevep]

Jul 16, 2022 21:20:30 GMT Max Sinister said:

Just one decade for a victorious Nazi Reich? Recently I thought that while the Soviet Union had lasted 70+ years, Franco's Spain and Salazar's Portugal had about half that lifespan. Coincidence? Would Hitler's successor have to worry about a very different 1968? Especially if he pushes natalism as if there was no tomorrow (like Ceaucescu did!).

But other than that - writing books and making music isn't a very expensive hobby. Certainly Anglo culture would be poorer in a Nazis Win TL, but not dead.

  Well it would depend on the exact circumstances.  However assuming that the Nazis managed to persuade the US to make peace in say 43 and either defeat or get a similar peace with them then your still going to have an extremely dysfunctional system with massive corruption, most of the population little more than slaves, massive projection of ignorance and myths at the expense of real science.  Also given the regime's glorification of warfare and its status in their society plus the existence of hostile systems in the west and also the east - whether its a weakened USSR with say 43 borders or even one driven back to the Urals their still going to want a massive military.  At the same time peace means no new territory to loot and what they have already has often been bled white.

  Furthermore given their ideological limitations and the way projects often get tied up in internal power struggles I can't see them getting nukes before the UK let along the US.  Either of those, if their got any sense would seek to dismantle the Nazi empire as soon as they have a suitable nuclear and deliverable capability.

  Basically the nearest system to the Nazis was probably Pol Pot in Cambodia and while they have a lot more resources to keep them staggering on there is a limit to how far this will carry them at least without drastic reform to reduce the insanity.  Which won't happen while Hitler lives and assuming Goring succeeds him - who seems the most likely one unless he seriously pisses off the army possibly - it won't get massively better.

[Max Sinister]

Keep in mind: Not everything was run by the state. As soon as the war is over, the firms will demand and probably get the end of war economy. The economy will suffer somewhat compared to a free economy, but all the guys who worked hard IOTL to create the Wirtschaftswunder are still alive. Old habits die hard. Maybe a later generation will say "Hard work is for Slav(e)s!", but until then...

Science and culture OTOH... for a while, they can live on those socialized in the Kaiserreich/Weimar Republic, but later...

And no, I don't expect them to get nukes very soon. If they consider even a Heisenberg a "white Jew", they can consider themselves lucky if they get them at all. Unless some pro-Nazi sympathizer gave them the secret to prevent them being conquered by the Soviet Union.

[stevep]

Jul 16, 2022 22:00:23 GMT Max Sinister said:

Keep in mind: Not everything was run by the state. As soon as the war is over, the firms will demand and probably get the end of war economy. The economy will suffer somewhat compared to a free economy, but all the guys who worked hard IOTL to create the Wirtschaftswunder are still alive. Old habits die hard. Maybe a later generation will say "Hard work is for Slav(e)s!", but until then...

Science and culture OTOH... for a while, they can live on those socialized in the Kaiserreich/Weimar Republic, but later...

And no, I don't expect them to get nukes very soon. If they consider even a Heisenberg a "white Jew", they can consider themselves lucky if they get them at all. Unless some pro-Nazi sympathizer gave them the secret to prevent them being conquered by the Soviet Union.

  Not everything true and the party did at times pay lip service to private interests but there was a lot of interaction and Goring for instances was developing a large coal and steel capacity further east in part to undermine the influence of the Ruhr.  Also any real progress in any really needed the support of Hitler or one of the other party magnates.

  I doubt if they will get an end to the war economy but some scaling back of it is very likely.  If nothing else Germany will need items to trade for goods they can't produce themselves - unless their overrun pretty much all of European Russia and the Baku region.  There will be a lot of people willing to work hard but the system is tilted heavily towards the party and the big industrial organisations with unions banned and a lot of control over ordinary workers that is unlikely to change much.  Plus with a lot of slave labourers from the east - those from the west are likely to be released in most cases - many companies may prefer to use those rather than more expensive and demanding - like the right to safe working conditions and a living wage! - German workers.  You might see this being used to produce a new settler community in the eastern conquests but how successful this would be I don't know.

  I wasn't aware that Heisenberg was that mistrusted - presumably because he didn't totally desert Einstein's ideas?

[gillan1220]

Jul 15, 2022 20:56:57 GMT Max Sinister said:

Let's say, your PoD is in WW2, maybe the Nazis even win - what happens to pop culture then?

The Main the High Castle had American sit-coms and children's cartoons with Nazi propaganda.

If we go to the more realistic route like Fatherland, we might see rebellious German youth listening to rock and roll.

To sum it up, pop-culture of this world would be very different from ours to the point it is unrecognizable.

[Max Sinister]

Jul 17, 2022 8:49:44 GMT stevep said:

Jul 16, 2022 22:00:23 GMT Max Sinister said:

Keep in mind: Not everything was run by the state. As soon as the war is over, the firms will demand and probably get the end of war economy. The economy will suffer somewhat compared to a free economy, but all the guys who worked hard IOTL to create the Wirtschaftswunder are still alive. Old habits die hard. Maybe a later generation will say "Hard work is for Slav(e)s!", but until then...

Science and culture OTOH... for a while, they can live on those socialized in the Kaiserreich/Weimar Republic, but later...

And no, I don't expect them to get nukes very soon. If they consider even a Heisenberg a "white Jew", they can consider themselves lucky if they get them at all. Unless some pro-Nazi sympathizer gave them the secret to prevent them being conquered by the Soviet Union.

  Not everything true and the party did at times pay lip service to private interests but there was a lot of interaction and Goring for instances was developing a large coal and steel capacity further east in part to undermine the influence of the Ruhr.  Also any real progress in any really needed the support of Hitler or one of the other party magnates.

  I doubt if they will get an end to the war economy but some scaling back of it is very likely.  If nothing else Germany will need items to trade for goods they can't produce themselves - unless their overrun pretty much all of European Russia and the Baku region.  There will be a lot of people willing to work hard but the system is tilted heavily towards the party and the big industrial organisations with unions banned and a lot of control over ordinary workers that is unlikely to change much.  Plus with a lot of slave labourers from the east - those from the west are likely to be released in most cases - many companies may prefer to use those rather than more expensive and demanding - like the right to safe working conditions and a living wage! - German workers.  You might see this being used to produce a new settler community in the eastern conquests but how successful this would be I don't know.

  I wasn't aware that Heisenberg was that mistrusted - presumably because he didn't totally desert Einstein's ideas?

1. It's true that competition like that undermined the Reich often. How much worse than capitalist systems they are (competing firms damage each other, monopolies becoming ineffective and exploitative) I don't know.

2. The Nazis had planned to give anyone settling in the East half a sq km land. And promote workers accordingly - from simple laborer to foreman, etc. The Slav(e)s will make the new lower strata, I guess. If some Nazi (Speer?) has the idea that it won't hurt to make the Slavs work on assembly lines (the Nazis thought this work wasn't suitable for "Aryans", because too demeaning!), it'll help their economy.

3. Damn right about Heisenberg.

[stevep]

Aug 7, 2022 2:08:33 GMT Max Sinister said:

Jul 17, 2022 8:49:44 GMT stevep said:

  Not everything true and the party did at times pay lip service to private interests but there was a lot of interaction and Goring for instances was developing a large coal and steel capacity further east in part to undermine the influence of the Ruhr.  Also any real progress in any really needed the support of Hitler or one of the other party magnates.

  I doubt if they will get an end to the war economy but some scaling back of it is very likely.  If nothing else Germany will need items to trade for goods they can't produce themselves - unless their overrun pretty much all of European Russia and the Baku region.  There will be a lot of people willing to work hard but the system is tilted heavily towards the party and the big industrial organisations with unions banned and a lot of control over ordinary workers that is unlikely to change much.  Plus with a lot of slave labourers from the east - those from the west are likely to be released in most cases - many companies may prefer to use those rather than more expensive and demanding - like the right to safe working conditions and a living wage! - German workers.  You might see this being used to produce a new settler community in the eastern conquests but how successful this would be I don't know.

  I wasn't aware that Heisenberg was that mistrusted - presumably because he didn't totally desert Einstein's ideas?

1. It's true that competition like that undermined the Reich often. How much worse than capitalist systems they are (competing firms damage each other, monopolies becoming ineffective and exploitative) I don't know.

2. The Nazis had planned to give anyone settling in the East half a sq km land. And promote workers accordingly - from simple laborer to foreman, etc. The Slav(e)s will make the new lower strata, I guess. If some Nazi (Speer?) has the idea that it won't hurt to make the Slavs work on assembly lines (the Nazis thought this work wasn't suitable for "Aryans", because too demeaning!), it'll help their economy.

3. Damn right about Heisenberg.

1)  It would partly depend on what happens in the rest of the free world.  Which is going to be weaken and even more dominated by the US than OTL.  You could see a more centralized control due to the continued perceived threat from the Nazis or not.  Still likely that there's going to be more competition and less bureaucratic interference than in the Nazi controlled lands plus your unlikely to get the same racial crap about certain technological and scientific ideas.

2)  I'm not sure how willing many farmers would be willing to take up that option, even if say it was 10 times that area and pretty fertile land in say Ukraine and the Don steppes region.  It means moving hundreds of miles eastwards, away from friends, family and the facilities their used to.  You would be a considerable landowner but with a serf-slave workforce that has every reason to hate your guts so life is going to be tense if not dangerous.  Would you have the same access to farm machinery that someone in Germany proper would have and also other general supplies.  Would it continue to be a region under effective military control which would possibly make you feel safer but could limit your own freedom to some extend.  Also even in Ukraine the climate will be harsher.

3)  Interesting thanks.  I suspect their still going to be some way behind the allies in developing nukes before even Heisenberg was way off track on the amount of nuclear material that would be needed for an explosive device, by a couple of orders of magnitude IIRC.  When they 1st heard about the nuclear use again Japan the initial reaction was denial.  Basically along the line of "if we couldn't get it working then there's no way the degenerate western powers could".  Of course once the west gets nukes and assuming that's not kept a great secret or used against the Nazis quickly their going to have to change their tune but how quickly could they get a fully developed nuclear and delivery system in place?

[Max Sinister]

1) That should be the strength of the free world in the long run. Even if they'll have a hard time, with all of continental Europe, northern Africa, the Soviet Union, probably Mao's China, and maybe some other areas being totalitarian. But they can make it.

2) There were still many dirt poor farmers in Germany in the 1930s. I don't give a shit on the "Volk ohne Raum" blahblah by the Nazis, but there are neutral witnesses: In one of his books, Hans Fallada - never a Nazi, in fact even arrested by them - wrote about a peasant family who are so poor they can't even afford an ox or a mule, let alone a horse, so they have to pull the plough by themselves. You're really sure they would never accept that offer (because I expect the Nazis would heavily promote it)? "Man muss nehmen, was man kriegen kann" - old German saying.

3) Yes, as soon as the US will have their nukes, and tested them, the Nazis will have to become more lenient - or perish.

[stevep]

Aug 24, 2022 2:44:53 GMT Max Sinister said:

1) That should be the strength of the free world in the long run. Even if they'll have a hard time, with all of continental Europe, northern Africa, the Soviet Union, probably Mao's China, and maybe some other areas being totalitarian. But they can make it.

2) There were still many dirt poor farmers in Germany in the 1930s. I don't give a shit on the "Volk ohne Raum" blahblah by the Nazis, but there are neutral witnesses: In one of his books, Hans Fallada - never a Nazi, in fact even arrested by them - wrote about a pesant family who are so poor they can't even afford an ox or a mule, let alone a horse, so they have to pull the plough by themselves. You're really sure they would never accept that offer (because I expect the Nazis would heavily promote it)? "Man muss nehmen, was man kriegen kann" - old German saying.

3) Yes, as soon as the US will have their nukes, and tested them, the Nazis will have to become more lenient - or perish.

  I knew that a lot of German farms were small and poor but didn't realise quite that poor.  In that case they and others like them would be tempted.  Assuming that of course the party/government will supply not only the land but the equipment, such as horses - probably multiple because of the size of the land.  It will still mean being very isolated from any friends and kin, as well as other German settlers unless quite a lot of people take the offer.  The best bet would be if Germany picks a very good farming area, probably in western Ukraine and concentrates settlers there then possibly expanding to neighbouring areas as that region is fairly securely settled.  Even so its probable that the German setters are going to be a small minority in a sea of Slavic serfs/slaves so any collaspe of German power is going to see them at best evicted if/when that happens.

[Max Sinister]

Oh, the Nazi regime had planned to provide the settlers with everything they might need. Of course, in practice, this got stuck in bureaucratic mud... maybe they'd fare better as soon as they don't have to fight a world war anymore?

The infamous Generalplan Ost had planned to turn East Galicia and Crimea, plus Tauria north of it, into "Siedlungsmarken" (settlement marks) to be "Germanized" 50%, population-wise.