What if the IJA brought down the Japanese Cabinet in August 1939 over the German alliance and Tients

[raharris1973]

During the summer of 1939, the IJA was embroiled in the Tianjin Crisis with Britain, blockading the British and French Concessions in that northern Chinese city and demanding the turnover of Chinese suspects and Bank of China silver reserves located in the concession area. This was matched in Japan by a grassroots anti-British campaign scapegoating Britain for propping up Chinese resistance and demanding an alliance treaty with Germany, supported by mid-level Japanese Army officers and Japan's attaches abroad.

On August 4th, the Cabinet's Army Minister, Seishiro Itagaki, threatened to resign if an alliance treaty was not concluded with Berlin forthwith. He was convinced to wait a few weeks in OTL by Koichi Kido, the Lord Privy Seal.

What if Itagaki resigns on August 4th and forces the collapse of the Cabinet right then and there?

This signal of Army displeasure, combined with the grassroots movement in the streets of Tokyo, would exert pressure on any new Cabinet to obtain Army support, signal an uncompromising stand toward Britain, and a readiness to align with Germany.

What happens if we get to August 20th and Germany and Japan have signed an alliance directed against Britain, France, and the USSR? What happens in the Far East if this alliance is in place, and the Tianjin crisis is not yet settled, and it has reached August 26th or September 1st in Europe and Hitler has launched his invasion of Poland? Is Britain still declaring war on Germany? Is Japan in turn declaring war on Britain, and starting off by attacking all the British leaseholds and concessions or near China?

[lordroel]

Jul 21, 2022 12:23:58 GMT raharris1973 said:

During the summer of 1939, the IJA was embroiled in the Tianjin Crisis with Britain, blockading the British and French Concessions in that northern Chinese city and demanding the turnover of Chinese suspects and Bank of China silver reserves located in the concession area. This was matched in Japan by a grassroots anti-British campaign scapegoating Britain for propping up Chinese resistance and demanding an alliance treaty with Germany, supported by mid-level Japanese Army officers and Japan's attaches abroad.

On August 4th, the Cabinet's Army Minister, Seishiro Itagaki, threatened to resign if an alliance treaty was not concluded with Berlin forthwith. He was convinced to wait a few weeks in OTL by Koichi Kido, the Lord Privy Seal.

What if Itagaki resigns on August 4th and forces the collapse of the Cabinet right then and there?

This signal of Army displeasure, combined with the grassroots movement in the streets of Tokyo, would exert pressure on any new Cabinet to obtain Army support, signal an uncompromising stand toward Britain, and a readiness to align with Germany.

What happens if we get to August 20th and Germany and Japan have signed an alliance directed against Britain, France, and the USSR? What happens in the Far East if this alliance is in place, and the Tianjin crisis is not yet settled, and it has reached August 26th or September 1st in Europe and Hitler has launched his invasion of Poland? Is Britain still declaring war on Germany? Is Japan in turn declaring war on Britain, and starting off by attacking all the British leaseholds and concessions or near China?

Is Japan ready in 1939 to go head to head with the United Kingdom and France.

[stevep]

   I would say that in 1939 Japan isn't ready to go to war with Britain and France, although the Japanese militarists are likely to think otherwise.  Especially with France undefeated and widely thought to have the strongest army in Europe.

  I would have to ask raharris1973, two questions.

a)  Is this German-Japanese treaty, including the anti-Soviet part of it, instead of the OTL RM Pact or as well as it?  If the latter then Richard Sorge is likely to inform Moscow about the plans to betray them anyway so not sure what  Stalin would do if Germany is clearly allied to Japan at this stage.

b)  If Japan attacks the western powers prior to Germany invading Poland then would this also include attacks on the DEI?  If not then their going to be unable to trade with that area and trade with the US is also likely to be iffy so they start running into supply difficulties much earlier.  - Assuming of course they could capture those regions with the smaller forces available in 1939 and the lack of control of FIC. 

  If Japan attacks prior to a German attack on Poland then I'm not sure what Chamberlain would do, let alone the French Premier.  They might be over-confident enough to still go to war with Germany or tell Poland they would have to give in to German demands.  In the latter case would Hitler still be determined to occupy Poland in full or just puppet it.  Again if there's still a RM Pact then Hitler can't afford to betray Stalin at this point but if there isn't Germany occupying all of 1939 Poland puts German forces much further east and the Soviets have no clear support for occupying the Baltics or attacking Finland.  In that case Moscow gets a lot more concerned about Berlin and I can't see the OTL trade deals. 

  A hell of a lot of things that can occur here, even without any considerations of what the US reaction is.  Its still strongly isolationist but war in the Pacific/Far East is likely to raise concerns especially with regards to links with the Philippines, Guam and Wake and if nothing else the last two are likely to be reinforced and fortified quicker.

  Anyway initial brainstorm on the issue.

[lordroel]

Jul 21, 2022 14:22:12 GMT stevep said:

   I would say that in 1939 Japan isn't ready to go to war with Britain and France, although the Japanese militarists are likely to think otherwise.  Especially with France undefeated and widely thought to have the strongest army in Europe.

  I would have to ask raharris1973 , two questions.

a)  Is this German-Japanese treaty, including the anti-Soviet part of it, instead of the OTL RM Pact or as well as it?  If the latter then Richard Sorge is likely to inform Moscow about the plans to betray them anyway so not sure what  Stalin would do if Germany is clearly allied to Japan at this stage.

b)  If Japan attacks the western powers prior to Germany invading Poland then would this also include attacks on the DEI?  If not then their going to be unable to trade with that area and trade with the US is also likely to be iffy so they start running into supply difficulties much earlier.  - Assuming of course they could capture those regions with the smaller forces available in 1939 and the lack of control of FIC. 

  If Japan attacks prior to a German attack on Poland then I'm not sure what Chamberlain would do, let alone the French Premier.  They might be over-confident enough to still go to war with Germany or tell Poland they would have to give in to German demands.  In the latter case would Hitler still be determined to occupy Poland in full or just puppet it.  Again if there's still a RM Pact then Hitler can't afford to betray Stalin at this point but if there isn't Germany occupying all of 1939 Poland puts German forces much further east and the Soviets have no clear support for occupying the Baltics or attacking Finland.  In that case Moscow gets a lot more concerned about Berlin and I can't see the OTL trade deals. 

  A hell of a lot of things that can occur here, even without any considerations of what the US reaction is.  Its still strongly isolationist but war in the Pacific/Far East is likely to raise concerns especially with regards to links with the Philippines, Guam and Wake and if nothing else the last two are likely to be reinforced and fortified quicker.

  Anyway initial brainstorm on the issue.

This reminds me of the TL on AH.com called It's A Long Way To Nagasaki: The Anglo-Japanese War

[gillan1220]

Japan was not ready to take on the Western powers in Asia as of 1939.

An interesting happening somewhere in rural New York in August 1939 was a U.S. Army exercise involving Stuart tanks. It was observed by German and Japanese military attaches among 17 other foreign observers.

www.reddit.com/r/HistoryPorn/comments/qkkccl/extremely_rare_photo_of_happier_times/

[melanie]

Gillian, the militarists in charge of Japan are barely more rational in 1939 than they were in the "Japan will keep Korea and Taiwan in any peace/try our own war criminals/no Allied occupation" 1945 that the "peace movement" also overlooks.

[stevep]

Aug 27, 2022 17:24:49 GMT melanie said:

Gillian, the militarists in charge of Japan are barely more rational in 1939 than they were in the "Japan will keep Korea and Taiwan in any peace/try our own war criminals/no Allied occupation" 1945 that the "peace movement" also overlooks.

  If they do pressure for war with the allies in support of Germany on 2-9-39 then its going to make for a much different war.  They can seize British/French bases in China and potentially attack FIC or Borneo and possibly some of the other islands in the SW Pacific but I suspect they can't go much further.  Plus it means that western aid to China expands greatly and British subs for instance start sinking Japanese shipping.  [Not to mention any outside the E Asia region is likely to be seized before it can reach safety - given the range of bases that Britain and France have.]  Japan will have problems getting oil from the DEI in the face of allied naval and possibly air pressure, especially if Britain manages to maintain control of its territories in Borneo. 

  Things get more complex if France still falls as OTL and refuses to fight on, especially since its likely to mean Italy also joins the conflict as France falls.  Britain is under severe pressure then, even more than OTL but with forces moved to SE Asia and that I can't see the ANZ forces moving to the ME in this scenario the likelihood would be that Malaya and at least some of those regions still hold and its possibly Egypt that is in greater danger.  Although once Germany attacks the Netherlands that opens up the DEI to Japanese attack.

  Assuming butterflies doesn't mean that Britain makes peace the next big questions are:

a) Does Barbarossa still occur?  - Almost certainly since its such an essential part of Hitler's world view, both in terms of living-space and also his desire to destroy both communism and the Jewish 'conspiracy' that he viewed as behind it.

b)  If so does he co-operate with Japan?  - He didn't OTL but here Japan is an active ally.  If he does how much can Japan commit to an offensive in Siberia and what would that take from any war effort against Britain in the south.  Which probably relates to how well [or not] Japan is doing and its supply system as a result.

c)  How does this long range of big butterflies affect the stance of the US?

[melanie]

The Axis might just cross the Egyptian frontier in this world. Because of logistics, they won't sweep to the Caucauses or anything, but dear God, they don't need to, as someone like the Desert Fox will happily help nationalists with spare weapons, ammunition and communication gears once they actually sweep into Egypt and prove to the Arab street by actually penetrating how useless Farouk and the British can be, much much earlier than OTL. Farouk will face *severe* problemes from his "loyal subjects" very quickly. Ditto the Brits.

[stevep]

Aug 29, 2022 15:17:49 GMT melanie said:

The Axis might just cross the Egyptian frontier in this world. Because of logistics, they won't sweep to the Caucauses or anything, but dear God, they don't need to, as someone like the Desert Fox will happily help nationalists with spare weapons, ammunition and communication gears once they actually sweep into Egypt and prove to the Arab street by actually penetrating how useless Farouk and the British can be, much much earlier than OTL. Farouk will face *severe* problemes from his "loyal subjects" very quickly. Ditto the Brits.

  That is a danger although that does assume that Germany gets involved in N Africa.  OTL Mussolini wanted to keep it an Italian theatre for his own imperial aims and it was only when his forces were humiliated in Greece and shattered in eastern Libya that he was willing - quickly becoming eager - for German forces to aid him.  Assuming France still falls and Italy joins the war Britain is going to be very badly stretched and assuming it fights on will need to both find forces to defend Egypt and the canal and to supply them.  Not impossible as OTL shows and if the Italians are as weak as OTL but the British can't launch the expansion of Operation Compass, or even the initial attacks on the Italian forces on the border then it could become a stalled front for quite a while which might give Britain a chance to secure SE Asia and then garrison Egypt adequately.