What if the USSR of October 1925 is ISOT'ed 20 years in the past?

[raharris1973]

On October 1, 1925, the entire Soviet Union is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to October 1st, 1905. This is a few weeks after the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth concluded the Russo-Japanese War.

The back-timed Soviet Union is grieving the loss of Lenin, and CPSU Party General Secretary Joseph Stalin is politically and bureaucratically in the strongest position within party leadership but by no means is a dictator within the ruling party collective leadership. The Soviet Union has made strides recovering from the Civil War and famines of 1921-1922 with the help of the New Economic Policy and gone a long way to restore agricultural and industrial production almost to 1913 levels. The Red Army is strengthening and absorbing the lessons of the Civil War. It has recently reoccupied northern Sakhalin island, recently evacuated by the Japanese.

The satellite Mongolian People's Republic and Tannu Tuva republics are not back-timed. So across the formal Soviet border, it is the 1905 Qing Empire Mongolian provinces.

West of the 1925 Soviet border, are the Tsarist Empire governorates covering the territory that in OTL 1925 had become Finland, the Baltic States, the majority of Poland, the Bessarabia region of Romania, and the Kars Ardahan region of the Turkish Empire.

Upon realization of the international situation, the USSR government and security forces are able to reduce the downtime fringe territories to obedience without too much difficulty, interference, or trouble.

The Germans and French are locked in the Morocco Crisis, although both have agreed to resolve the politics of the dispute at an international conference starting in 1906.

However, there was even in OTL, some military posturing over the winter, including a German call-up of reserve units on December 30, 1905 and French reinforcement of the border on January 3rd, 1906.

Add to this volatile mix, a completely new Russian state, recalling and replacing its diplomats, and proclaiming from its new capital, Moscow not St. Petersburg, that it is a revolutionary workers state that repudiates its foreign debts and alliances with France. It is also lampooning the upcoming great power diplomacy over Morocco and denouncing the imperial meddling in the Moroccan people's affairs.

Regarding the tense Franco-German rivalry that threatens war, Moscow's propagandists are busy raising questions and doubts about the eagerness and motives of special capitalist interests in each country to fight over Morocco at the price of conscripting or taxing workers.

Beyond Europe, the Soviet authorities are aware of local instabilities and revolutionary trends where history could perhaps be given a nudge with some preparation. Coming up next is the late 1905 protests in Persia culminating in the Constitutional Revolution of January 1906.
After that is the Young Turk, CUP revolution in Ottoman Turkey of 1908. Then 1911 will bring China's Xinhai revolution overthrowing the Qing, and the Mexican revolution against Porfirio Diaz.

What's going to happen with this volatile mix. The back-timed Soviets with their news from the future won't be the only ones getting a vote. Downtime Germans, Austrians, French, and British will have to set their own priorities too and see how many potential adversaries they can try to gain advantages over at once.

Your thoughts?

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2nd option - A variant on the original idea -

On July 1, 1923, the entire USSR is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to July 1, 1903. Differences? For the USSR, Lenin is still alive, there's been less recovery from famine. From a 1903 world perspective, this is before the Russo-Japanese war. The Russians and Japanese were still negotiating. I think the Soviets will diplomatically yield to Japanese positions and renounce untenable interests in Korea and Manchuria in order to avoid war with Japan, and to make a propagandistic show of being anti-imperialistic friends of the Chinese and Korean people. The Soviets should be able to lock down and control the downtime Tsarist areas on the western fringes. Most other aspects of the scenario are similar to above, except the Moroccan crisis had not started, and Russia has not been militarily or navally humbled before the world. It is still destabilizing that it is pulling itself outside of the alliance system and proclaiming itself a revolutionary state.

[stevep]

Aug 2, 2022 3:01:30 GMT raharris1973 said:

On October 1, 1925, the entire Soviet Union is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to October 1st, 1905. This is a few weeks after the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth concluded the Russo-Japanese War.

The back-timed Soviet Union is grieving the loss of Lenin, and CPSU Party General Secretary Joseph Stalin is politically and bureaucratically in the strongest position within party leadership but by no means is a dictator within the ruling party collective leadership. The Soviet Union has made strides recovering from the Civil War and famines of 1921-1922 with the help of the New Economic Policy and gone a long way to restore agricultural and industrial production almost to 1913 levels. The Red Army is strengthening and absorbing the lessons of the Civil War. It has recently reoccupied northern Sakhalin island, recently evacuated by the Japanese.

The satellite Mongolian People's Republic and Tannu Tuva republics are not back-timed. So across the formal Soviet border, it is the 1905 Qing Empire Mongolian provinces.

West of the 1925 Soviet border, are the Tsarist Empire governorates covering the territory that in OTL 1925 had become Finland, the Baltic States, the majority of Poland, the Bessarabia region of Romania, and the Kars Ardahan region of the Turkish Empire.

Upon realization of the international situation, the USSR government and security forces are able to reduce the downtime fringe territories to obedience without too much difficulty, interference, or trouble.

The Germans and French are locked in the Morocco Crisis, although both have agreed to resolve the politics of the dispute at an international conference starting in 1906.

However, there was even in OTL, some military posturing over the winter, including a German call-up of reserve units on December 30, 1905 and French reinforcement of the border on January 3rd, 1906.

Add to this volatile mix, a completely new Russian state, recalling and replacing its diplomats, and proclaiming from its new capital, Moscow not St. Petersburg, that it is a revolutionary workers state that repudiates its foreign debts and alliances with France. It is also lampooning the upcoming great power diplomacy over Morocco and denouncing the imperial meddling in the Moroccan people's affairs.

Regarding the tense Franco-German rivalry that threatens war, Moscow's propagandists are busy raising questions and doubts about the eagerness and motives of special capitalist interests in each country to fight over Morocco at the price of conscripting or taxing workers.

Beyond Europe, the Soviet authorities are aware of local instabilities and revolutionary trends where history could perhaps be given a nudge with some preparation. Coming up next is the late 1905 protests in Persia culminating in the Constitutional Revolution of January 1906.
After that is the Young Turk, CUP revolution in Ottoman Turkey of 1908. Then 1911 will bring China's Xinhai revolution overthrowing the Qing, and the Mexican revolution against Porfirio Diaz.

What's going to happen with this volatile mix. The back-timed Soviets with their news from the future won't be the only ones getting a vote. Downtime Germans, Austrians, French, and British will have to set their own priorities too and see how many potential adversaries they can try to gain advantages over at once.

Your thoughts?

-------

2nd option - A variant on the original idea -

On July 1, 1923, the entire USSR is ISOT'ed back in time 20 years to July 1, 1903. Differences? For the USSR, Lenin is still alive, there's been less recovery from famine. From a 1903 world perspective, this is before the Russo-Japanese war. The Russians and Japanese were still negotiating. I think the Soviets will diplomatically yield to Japanese positions and renounce untenable interests in Korea and Manchuria in order to avoid war with Japan, and to make a propagandistic show of being anti-imperialistic friends of the Chinese and Korean people. The Soviets should be able to lock down and control the downtime Tsarist areas on the western fringes. Most other aspects of the scenario are similar to above, except the Moroccan crisis had not started, and Russia has not been militarily or navally humbled before the world. It is still destabilizing that it is pulling itself outside of the alliance system and proclaiming itself a revolutionary state.

  Three things comes to mind.

a)  How many non or anti-Bolsheviks, possibly including some diplomats, are going to be in the USSR and hence might be able to inform the down-timers about 'future' developments?  This could include a hell of a lot about WWI and other developments.

b)  Given that 1925 or 1923 USSR had different borders to 1914 Imperial Russia that means there will be areas such as Finland, the Baltic states, a large Poland, Bessarabia and possibly parts of Central Asia will be from 1913/03.  While many of those areas were probably less than happy with imperial rule there will be numbers who think of themselves as loyal subjects of the Czar and especially a fair number of soldiers in places like Poland.

c)  Since the Soviets have committed regicide of not only the Czar but his entire immediate family including the young heir and 4 daughters there's likely to be a strong reaction among the assorted monarchies.  Especially if their defaulted on French loans and rejected western 'imperialism' that would also leave them very isolated.  In this case a move by Germany and Austria to 'restore' order quite possibly with support from other monarchies and if they can find a claimant to the Romanov dynasty among the people from the down-time borderlands they can even talk of restoring the dynasty.  France is unlikely to stick its neck out in being willing to oppose such a move and I doubt Britain would either. 

  Which could make for a big boost for imperial Germany provided that they don't get too deeply embedded and stuck in an unpopular occupation of large areas of the Russian empire.  At the same time Russia is a shadow of what it was was in 1914 in terms of military strength and economic power with a population that unless the new invaders are really stupid they will find many probably willing to welcome the end of the disorder.  The big issue since the communists haven't imposed collectivization would probably be that the bulk of the rural population especially will oppose the restoration of the aristocratic estates.

  Assuming that the CPs win quickly against the Soviets and don't get bogged down how do they and others respond to news of the war and its devastation of much of Europe as well the social impacts?  Also the vast advances of many areas of technology?  Do they fall back into a new set of alliances in a struggle for power or seek, at least for a while to avoid such a disastrous war?

[575]

Sweden have just divorced Norway during September 1905 and I expect it would be willing to support the Grandduchy of Finland against the Sovietunion if the current authority would like so.

[raharris1973]

Aug 2, 2022 15:01:14 GMT 575 said:

Sweden have just divorced Norway during September 1905 and I expect it would be willing to support the Grandduchy of Finland against the Sovietunion if the current authority would like so.

They could try. Some of it is a matter of which side figures out what is going on first. It seems to me the Soviet side will have an easier time figuring that out. That also means they will have an easier time using preparations and trickery to defeat the other side.

The USSR could also unilaterally cede independence to the Grand Duchy of Finland if, for example, that can get them Scandinavian neutrality, and neutralize Tsarist troops there, if there is a grand coalition forming between Germany, Austria, and France against the the revolutionary state.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

a)  How many non or anti-Bolsheviks, possibly including some diplomats, are going to be in the USSR and hence might be able to inform the down-timers about 'future' developments?  This could include a hell of a lot about WWI and other developments.

This is a a good point, they would have very valuable knowledge. Especially once they start communicating and once larger events make it clear they should be believed. At the same time, the Soviet state and Chekha are pretty good at controlling and locking down internal movements, and may very quickly make non-repatriation and control of foreigners communications a priority. I think a few would almost certainly escape though due to security services sloppiness, corruption, and their own ingenuity.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

b)  Given that 1925 or 1923 USSR had different borders to 1914 Imperial Russia that means there will be areas such as Finland, the Baltic states, a large Poland, Bessarabia and possibly parts of Central Asia will be from 1913/03.  While many of those areas were probably less than happy with imperial rule there will be numbers who think of themselves as loyal subjects of the Czar and especially a fair number of soldiers in places like Poland.

All true that there are masses of old regime troops on the western fringes in particular. At the same time, these forces as of late 1905 exist in a certain state of precarity. They've been holding back revolutionary disturbances since Bloody Sunday at the beginning of the year, and enduring mediocre to bad news from the Far Eastern front. In the interior, they've be fighting against peasant rural land seizures, jacqueries, and banditry. In Poland, they are holding down nationalist and industrial unrest that would persist in OTL for another two years.

The Soviets have a lot of angles to work and exploit 'contradictions' and differences between downtime actors to weaken or neutralize their threat. For example:
a) Put diehard Tsarist troops in Poland-Lithuania "between two fires" by supporting, even if only momentarily, Polish independence aspirations
b) Alternatively, appeal to Tsarist troops Great Russian patriotism by advertising the Soviet Union as "the only Russia you've got" in the face of disloyal ethnic minorities, Poles, Jews, Balts, Romanians, Finns, who want to break Russia up.
c) Divide Tsarist soldiers from officers by telling the soldiers they are already late for the division of the estates, they are released from military service forthwith, and welcome to claim some land to farm on their own or with family members while there is still some around. Our Soviet bureaucrats will help! And this can be reinforced by possibly sending some people or family members from the NEP era Soviet Union to the uptime/downtime border with bullhorns (or through letter communications, "high this is your mama, the government taught me how to read after the old regime got you killed in the next war") to ask their younger selves or family members, alive or deceased, to "come home".

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

c)  Since the Soviets have committed regicide of not only the Czar but his entire immediate family including the young heir and 4 daughters there's likely to be a strong reaction among the assorted monarchies. 

Probably so, the truth, in general terms, wasn't really hidden so it will likely get out. Even though they could try making stuff up, like "we sent them into exile" or, "they became anonymous private citizens".

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

Especially if their defaulted on French loans and rejected western 'imperialism' that would also leave them very isolated. 

Yes, the denunciation of imperialism wouldn't sit well with anyone. The default on foreign loans wouldn't sit well with any foreign creditors, German included, even if they'll have a schadenfraudenlich laugh at French expense.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

In this case a move by Germany and Austria to 'restore' order quite possibly with support from other monarchies and if they can find a claimant to the Romanov dynasty among the people from the down-time borderlands they can even talk of restoring the dynasty. 

The trick will be physically accomplishing this in the face of opposition by the Red Army and Red Air Force.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

France is unlikely to stick its neck out in being willing to oppose such a move and I doubt Britain would either. 

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

France is unlikely to stick its neck out in being willing to oppose such a move and I doubt Britain would either. 

Except inasmuch as it worries about excessive unilateral German gains, but yeah, France is ill-disposed to Russia, and its foreign policy premises and financial markets are a shambles.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

Which could make for a big boost for imperial Germany provided that they don't get too deeply embedded and stuck in an unpopular occupation of large areas of the Russian empire.  At the same time Russia is a shadow of what it was was in 1914 in terms of military strength and economic power with a population that unless the new invaders are really stupid they will find many probably willing to welcome the end of the disorder. 

I don't know if Soviet citizens were finding it that disorderly by 1925. Perhaps culturally unnerving. Upsetting for the religiously conservative.

Russia is demographically battered compared to 1914, but its military is higher tech and tactically knowledgeable. It has more machine-guns and submachine guns per unit of soldiers than the 1905 armies and definitely more tanks, tankettes, and motor vehicles, and has expertise in combat use of armored trains. None of these are up to the standards of the 1930s, and are not particularly impressive by 1925 standards or even 1918 western front standards, but this is 1905, and its a good tactical edge to bloody the enemy in any early encounter battles in 1905. Also, the Soviets have an Air Force capable of air to air actions, bombing, rudimentary close air support, reconnaissance. Again, a primitive Air Force by 1918 standards, but a frightening thing for any 1905-1908 army to encounter.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

The big issue since the communists haven't imposed collectivization would probably be that the bulk of the rural population especially will oppose the restoration of the aristocratic estates.

That's the fear the Soviet regime would try to stoke.

Aug 2, 2022 13:02:42 GMT stevep said:

Assuming that the CPs win quickly against the Soviets and don't get bogged down how do they and others respond to news of the war and its devastation of much of Europe as well the social impacts?  Also the vast advances of many areas of technology?  Do they fall back into a new set of alliances in a struggle for power or seek, at least for a while to avoid such a disastrous war?

If things work out "just so" for the CPs, where they "kick in the door", and the "rotten Bolshevik edifice comes tumbling down" or gets maximally Brest-Litovsk'ed [and I've outlined potential obstacles to it], and tech is discovered, while the French and British are hostile to Soviets bystanders then I suppose war is put off for now, but Britain and France and possibly the US are going to be getting very worried about the world balance getting knocked out of whack. At a minimum, I think French-British ties and strategic cooperation will tighten. The Japanese on the other hand, would gleefully exploit the difficulties or downfall of the USSR to the extent they could, and get comfortable making policy choices increasingly independent of Britain. Some possible parallel anti-Soviet moves between the CPs in the west and Japan in the east may lead to more synchronization of policy between the two, and US-Japanese tensions might rise.

[stevep]

  raharris1973 ,

   Good point that the down-timers are from 1905.  Which is a long way behind 1925 tech.  I was also thinking that the Soviet forces would be pretty weak in terms of numbers and organisation but quite possibly as you say they will still have a lot more firepower than comparable 1905 forces, even from a powerful nation like Germany.  Especially probably in terms of air and electronic equipment.  I was thinking more of the disorganised and often poorly trained and equipped forces that made up most of the units in the civil war.    Not sure how much things would have changed by 1925 but probably trimmed down but better equipped forces. 

  Ditto with the down-time Czarist forces as depending on the exact time the ISOT arrives to as at the least reports aren't good from the Far East while later on there has already been unrest across much of Russia and very likely in non-Russian areas its even worse.  Coupled with some of the advantages the Soviets can offer, although I suspect their not had much time to do a lot in the way of education for the masses yet.

  Steve

[shadow007]

Changes WW1 very severely. America is going to be much less isolationist with a very powerful communist neighbor that has a superior navy and actual airforce.

Sun-yat-sen is happy since the Soviets would aid his development of China. One of the very few nations to benefit.

The Mexican Revolution becomes the Spanish Civil War of the 1910s. Pro-Soviet elements in Mexico get Soviet aid which allows them to win the civil war.

[stevep]

Aug 7, 2022 2:41:10 GMT shadow007 said:

Changes WW1 very severely. America is going to be much less isolationist with a very powerful communist neighbor that has a superior navy and actual airforce.

Sun-yat-sen is happy since the Soviets would aid his development of China. One of the very few nations to benefit.

The Mexican Revolution becomes the Spanish Civil War of the 1910s. Pro-Soviet elements in Mexico get Soviet aid which allows them to win the civil war.

  Actual if weak airforce yes but the Soviet navy is pretty crap and lacking in facilities and people to support it adequately.  They have some dreadnoughts which are very advanced by 1905 standards which will more likely spur Britain, Germany and probably France as their the countries most threatened by the new regime.  However would expect that to be changed in a relatively few years.  The Ottomans are possibly also having kittens about this new Russia especially if they don't realise how fragile it is.

  Sun might be assuming that the Chinese revolution still occurs but its 6 years away so while the dynasty is horrendously weak something else might develop.

  I very much doubt that the Soviets will have the ability to send substantial aid to Mexico and if they do who would they support?  There were multiple factions and while some were arguing for social change including ending the power of the aristocratic landowners they won't necessarily support Bolshevism, especially the more intelligent ones who realise how unpopular that would make then in the rest of the world, including that big unfriendly neighbour to the north.

[shadow007]

It is possible that WW1 will be fought with WW2 technologies resulting in a much shorter very mobile war

If the Ottomans try to start the Armenian Genocide the Soviets use it as justification for invading

Ethiopia would still be friendly with Russia. Soviet aid allows Ethiopia to have a much better military and economy. So a 1930s Fascist Italy can't conquer them.

The IRA would also be friends with the Soviets. Soviet guns would be very useful in their war for Independence