Post by TheRomanSlayer on Aug 14, 2022 0:02:51 GMT
Operation: Rosselsprung was a German military operation that had the highest success rate of possibly eliminating Josip Broz Tito, the wartime leader of the Partisan movement and future leader of communist Yugoslavia. There were also instances where German bombers could have wiped out the Partisan leadership structure, or a successful advance by the Waffen SS or the Balkan collaborationist movements become successful in trapping the Partisan forces in Drvar. Before this operation, there were also other operations that the Germans launched which would have also been successful in eliminating Tito, yet in the end, all of these operations had ended in failure, and Tito would go on to become the dictator of Yugoslavia.
But what if Rosselsprung was a successful operation? Would it have resulted in the faltering and possible splintering of the Partisan movement, now that Tito is killed? Here are the likely scenarios that would play out, had that operation ended in success:
1) A different leader of communist Yugoslavia would have emerged from this fallout. After Tito, Aleksandar Rankovic was the third most powerful man within the Yugoslav communist movement after Edvard Kardelj (who was the second most powerful). Unlike Tito, Rankovic had favored a Soviet-style centralization and had strong hatred towards the Albanians living in Kosovo, to the point where Kosovo was placed under martial law from 1948 to 1960. If a Rankovic communist dictatorship had emerged in what was left of the Serbian and Montenegrin parts of Yugoslavia, it is most likely that Rankovic would have continued the policy that was crafted by the Royalist predecessor of simply expelling Yugoslavia's Muslim population to Turkey.
2) It isn't really known if Yugoslavia as a whole would return in its OTL SFRY territorial form, since the death of Tito would have meant that the Germans and their allies would have more success in holding the line at the Drina River, effectively protecting the Nazi puppet state of the Independent State of Croatia from further Partisan and eventual Soviet advances. It would be more likely that Croatia and Bosnia, as well as Slovenia, would have gone to the pro-Western orbit, making the Drina River the literal border between the Western bloc and the Soviet bloc in the Balkans. However, it is unsure if Albania would also fall to a communist dictatorship, since the Western Allies might have an interest in keeping any foothold in the Balkans there.
3) Macedonia would have either gone back to Serbian control, or it would have been kept within Bulgaria. During WWII, the residents of OTL North Macedonia (except for ethnic minorities, that is) had welcomed the Bulgarians as liberators, but after WWII, Bulgaria was forced to relinquish control of Macedonia, making the way to the Macedonisation that gave rise to the controversy of North Macedonia today. In addition, it also had to relinquish its only territory on the Aegean Sea (Western Thrace) as a prerequisite for the peace terms given to Bulgaria by the Allies.
4) A different possible analogue to the Vokic-Lorkovic Coup would have taken place, but in Serbia itself, where the fear of a Soviet invasion was real. This would require the elimination of people like Milan Nedic, Dmitrije Ljotic, and various officers of the Serbian State Guard like Kosta Musicki, and even certain Chetnik officers as well. However, the rank and file grunts of both the Serbian State Guard and the Serbian Volunteer corps would probably be divided between those who want to flee to Germany, and those who would defect to the victorious Partisans.
5) The Soviets would have a harder time taking Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, possibly because of extra German forces that might be available for redeployment. Conversely, a larger German defensive operations in Croatia and Bosnia might also result in a quicker Soviet advance across the Danube in Hungary, while other German forces would steadily retreat from Greece and Albania.
But what if Rosselsprung was a successful operation? Would it have resulted in the faltering and possible splintering of the Partisan movement, now that Tito is killed? Here are the likely scenarios that would play out, had that operation ended in success:
1) A different leader of communist Yugoslavia would have emerged from this fallout. After Tito, Aleksandar Rankovic was the third most powerful man within the Yugoslav communist movement after Edvard Kardelj (who was the second most powerful). Unlike Tito, Rankovic had favored a Soviet-style centralization and had strong hatred towards the Albanians living in Kosovo, to the point where Kosovo was placed under martial law from 1948 to 1960. If a Rankovic communist dictatorship had emerged in what was left of the Serbian and Montenegrin parts of Yugoslavia, it is most likely that Rankovic would have continued the policy that was crafted by the Royalist predecessor of simply expelling Yugoslavia's Muslim population to Turkey.
2) It isn't really known if Yugoslavia as a whole would return in its OTL SFRY territorial form, since the death of Tito would have meant that the Germans and their allies would have more success in holding the line at the Drina River, effectively protecting the Nazi puppet state of the Independent State of Croatia from further Partisan and eventual Soviet advances. It would be more likely that Croatia and Bosnia, as well as Slovenia, would have gone to the pro-Western orbit, making the Drina River the literal border between the Western bloc and the Soviet bloc in the Balkans. However, it is unsure if Albania would also fall to a communist dictatorship, since the Western Allies might have an interest in keeping any foothold in the Balkans there.
3) Macedonia would have either gone back to Serbian control, or it would have been kept within Bulgaria. During WWII, the residents of OTL North Macedonia (except for ethnic minorities, that is) had welcomed the Bulgarians as liberators, but after WWII, Bulgaria was forced to relinquish control of Macedonia, making the way to the Macedonisation that gave rise to the controversy of North Macedonia today. In addition, it also had to relinquish its only territory on the Aegean Sea (Western Thrace) as a prerequisite for the peace terms given to Bulgaria by the Allies.
4) A different possible analogue to the Vokic-Lorkovic Coup would have taken place, but in Serbia itself, where the fear of a Soviet invasion was real. This would require the elimination of people like Milan Nedic, Dmitrije Ljotic, and various officers of the Serbian State Guard like Kosta Musicki, and even certain Chetnik officers as well. However, the rank and file grunts of both the Serbian State Guard and the Serbian Volunteer corps would probably be divided between those who want to flee to Germany, and those who would defect to the victorious Partisans.
5) The Soviets would have a harder time taking Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, possibly because of extra German forces that might be available for redeployment. Conversely, a larger German defensive operations in Croatia and Bosnia might also result in a quicker Soviet advance across the Danube in Hungary, while other German forces would steadily retreat from Greece and Albania.
