Plausibility check - late Italian entry into WWI, Entente victory, lower price for Italy

[raharris1973]

Aug 21, 2022 8:31:51 GMT 575 said:

raharris1973;

In the OP You mentioned a "Serbia and Russia.. earlier collapse";
In Your 3. post the sketch TL You mention Russia being ruled by a Democratic Socialist Government - Kerensky? How did that come into place with the following good Russian performance taking Warsaw? and how's the Tsar and his family doing? Did the February Revolution 1917 take place because of a badly managed Home Front?

You and stevep have asked some very interesting questions. In fact, on another discussion board I started the same OP, and ended up turning things in a different direction. That’s the nice thing about being a member of five boards, I can explore different timeline “branches” on different ones.

[575]

Aug 21, 2022 16:03:34 GMT raharris1973 said:

Aug 21, 2022 8:31:51 GMT 575 said:

raharris1973;

In the OP You mentioned a "Serbia and Russia.. earlier collapse";
In Your 3. post the sketch TL You mention Russia being ruled by a Democratic Socialist Government - Kerensky? How did that come into place with the following good Russian performance taking Warsaw? and how's the Tsar and his family doing? Did the February Revolution 1917 take place because of a badly managed Home Front?

You and stevep have asked some very interesting questions. In fact, on another discussion board I started the same OP, and ended up turning things in a different direction. That’s the nice thing about being a member of five boards, I can explore different timeline “branches” on different ones.

Well we've had a long time to think up all those questions to be asking.

Though good to know its interesting to You - it does matter to me doing the asking and get a response.

[stevep]

Aug 21, 2022 16:03:34 GMT raharris1973 said:

Aug 21, 2022 8:31:51 GMT 575 said:

raharris1973;

In the OP You mentioned a "Serbia and Russia.. earlier collapse";
In Your 3. post the sketch TL You mention Russia being ruled by a Democratic Socialist Government - Kerensky? How did that come into place with the following good Russian performance taking Warsaw? and how's the Tsar and his family doing? Did the February Revolution 1917 take place because of a badly managed Home Front?

You and stevep have asked some very interesting questions. In fact, on another discussion board I started the same OP, and ended up turning things in a different direction. That’s the nice thing about being a member of five boards, I can explore different timeline “branches” on different ones.

  Ouch that sounds like a serious split personality problem trying to keep track of what's been said where!

  With the Czar, assuming a moderate republic survives then I suspect he will end up in exile somewhere, possibly in Britain without a hard line communist revolt taking place in Russia.  Probably with some declaration that he has to renounce any claim to the throne for himself or his family although given how stubborn and inflexible Nicholas and his wife were that could take some time. 

  If the republic lasts until peace comes and then does some substantial land reforms then its very likely to reduce the Bolsheviks back to a minor terrorist group and bring the Social Revolutionaries and Mensheviks on line.  In which case its main internal threat might well be monarchists and reactionary military and aristocratic figures from the old regime but since their supplied both peace and land the latter should get relatively little support either internally or, with the central European primary monarchies from abroad either.  As I say I think the primary thing is can they bring a level of peace and security for the bulk of the population, which since most are still peasants is why land reform would be such an important issue.

  Steve

[575]

Without the Germans doing the sealed train - not letting Lenin back into Russia - the moderate/Kerensky Government may survive even if the Bolsheviks should try something or they may resort to bankrobbing again or try to destabilize Government.
Land reforms may serve secure better food supply for cities - something about the 10% private allowed farming of farmers supplied the majority of vegetables in Sovietunion. As such the city proletariat will calm.
Without Bolshevik rule the Tsar and his family will be able to find refuge somewhere - the British might even allow their being transported out of Russia by the RN for resettlement somewhere - France? The Dowager Empress Maria/Dagmar might go along her family might not have been evacuated due to no Civil War.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2022 8:38:04 GMT 575 said:

Without the Germans doing the sealed train - not letting Lenin back into Russia - the moderate/Kerensky Government may survive even if the Bolsheviks should try something or they may resort to bankrobbing again or try to destabilize Government.
Land reforms may serve secure better food supply for cities - something about the 10% private allowed farming of farmers supplied the majority of vegetables in Sovietunion. As such the city proletariat will calm.
Without Bolshevik rule the Tsar and his family will be able to find refuge somewhere - the British might even allow their being transported out of Russia by the RN for resettlement somewhere - France? The Dowager Empress Maria/Dagmar might go along her family might not have been evacuated due to no Civil War.

  Do we know that Lenin and some colleagues don't get that free trip?  The war still ends several months after they were sent OTL so its still likely something that L&H will at least consider.  I was assuming that they will still be sent but the better performance and quick end to the war, then land reform will removed their primary tools for gaining support, i.e. peace and land.  Alternatively given how moderate the government was about assorted exiles and former dissidents at all level he could return after peace comes.

  Good point about land reform also improving food supplies although it might depend to a degree on the farm size and ability for the new owners to use new equipment, fertilizers and the like.  Peace will be a big boost as well as it will remove a lot of the chaos that impeded food distribution and also a lot of workers will be returning to the agricultural areas, whether as former soldiers and for POWs.

  I'm not sure about whether Nicholas and the royal family could stay inside Russia.  From comments, see here, it was expected he would be forced into exile after he abdicated and he only change his initial plans to abdicate in favour of his son to in favour of his brother Michael because he was persuaded his son wouldn't survive long if separated from his family due to his hemophilia.  Michael then said he would only accept the throne with the agreement of the new Provisional Government.  Suspect that such steps would occur here when the revolution comes.  Don't think the republicans would want members of the family inside Russia as they would be a possible centre on which right wing opponents could assemble - with or without their permission.

  The UK was their initial 1st choice for exile and in the different positions with the ending of the war it might come about.  Could be elsewhere.  Ironically the link mentions some talk of them escaping via Japan - which although that seems to have been Bolshevik propaganda - makes me think would Japan, with its own long established imperial dynasty have welcomed them as exiles? 

[575]

Aug 22, 2022 15:48:26 GMT stevep said:

Aug 22, 2022 8:38:04 GMT 575 said:

Without the Germans doing the sealed train - not letting Lenin back into Russia - the moderate/Kerensky Government may survive even if the Bolsheviks should try something or they may resort to bankrobbing again or try to destabilize Government.
Land reforms may serve secure better food supply for cities - something about the 10% private allowed farming of farmers supplied the majority of vegetables in Sovietunion. As such the city proletariat will calm.
Without Bolshevik rule the Tsar and his family will be able to find refuge somewhere - the British might even allow their being transported out of Russia by the RN for resettlement somewhere - France? The Dowager Empress Maria/Dagmar might go along her family might not have been evacuated due to no Civil War.

  Do we know that Lenin and some colleagues don't get that free trip?  The war still ends several months after they were sent OTL so its still likely something that L&H will at least consider.  I was assuming that they will still be sent but the better performance and quick end to the war, then land reform will removed their primary tools for gaining support, i.e. peace and land.  Alternatively given how moderate the government was about assorted exiles and former dissidents at all level he could return after peace comes.

  Good point about land reform also improving food supplies although it might depend to a degree on the farm size and ability for the new owners to use new equipment, fertilizers and the like.  Peace will be a big boost as well as it will remove a lot of the chaos that impeded food distribution and also a lot of workers will be returning to the agricultural areas, whether as former soldiers and for POWs.

  I'm not sure about whether Nicholas and the royal family could stay inside Russia.  From comments, see here, it was expected he would be forced into exile after he abdicated and he only change his initial plans to abdicate in favour of his son to in favour of his brother Michael because he was persuaded his son wouldn't survive long if separated from his family due to his hemophilia.  Michael then said he would only accept the throne with the agreement of the new Provisional Government.  Suspect that such steps would occur here when the revolution comes.  Don't think the republicans would want members of the family inside Russia as they would be a possible centre on which right wing opponents could assemble - with or without their permission.

  The UK was their initial 1st choice for exile and in the different positions with the ending of the war it might come about.  Could be elsewhere.  Ironically the link mentions some talk of them escaping via Japan - which although that seems to have been Bolshevik propaganda - makes me think would Japan, with its own long established imperial dynasty have welcomed them as exiles? 

1st Paragraph: OP mentioned last post p.1 that the war was still going badly for Russia but the entry of Italy and Romania tipping the scales; though I'm no butterfly-fascist the Germans may here expect the Russians to soon go down the drain but the change of events make for not setting off Mr. Lenin from Switzerland. Perhaps the OTL Bourgeois Government was seeming much more to tumble just needing a nudge - which is less so here - but what do I know of raharris1973 intentions.

3rd Paragraph: oh I don't expect the Imperial Family to be allowed to stay and was merely wondering the options - if all butterflies taken into account the Brits still don't want them and the Frenchies with mutinies happening is out also due to the German connection of the Tsarina would have them look elsewhere.

4th Paragraph: was really not expecting any Royal ruled country to let them in - expected it to be easier in a republic where they would just be Mr. and Mrs. Romanov and kids though the US sets another example. Thought of Greece - Eastern Orthodox but then perhaps not. Taking 3rd Paragraph in consideration Denmark home of Dowager Empress Maria/Dagmar may be a possible with Germany to the south and wanting North Schleswig back might be an option. Somewhere in South America as the North doesn't?

[raharris1973]

575 - I am not too wrapped up with the specifics of the Tsar's exile of Lenin's return home or lack of return home in this TL. I'm rather indifferent to it.

You can imagine what occurs with Lenin and sealed train as you wish.

My assumption was that Lenin's sealed train journey happened as historical in April 1917, because it is before the PoD.

I don't think Lenin is so all-powerful that if he gets to Russia, a Bolshevik October revolution must happen - the circumstances must be right, and in this timeline, they do not line up.

The Provisional Government would have not had any restriction on Lenin traveling from Switzerland to Russia. Former political prisoners and exiles were welcome. It was just that routes exclusively through Entente and neutral territory from Switzerland to Russia were insanely long and inconveniently, with travelers having to get up to Britain and Scandinavia or the Arctic, or down through Italy to Suez to Persia to get to Russia without going through Germany or Austria.

In peacetime, Lenin traveling from Switzerland to a post-Tsarist democratic Russia would not have been a problem at all.

I think in 1917, Trotsky traveled from New York City to Petrograd without problems.

[stevep]

Aug 23, 2022 0:47:03 GMT raharris1973 said:

575 - I am not too wrapped up with the specifics of the Tsar's exile of Lenin's return home or lack of return home in this TL. I'm rather indifferent to it.

You can imagine what occurs with Lenin and sealed train as you wish.

My assumption was that Lenin's sealed train journey happened as historical in April 1917, because it is before the PoD.

I don't think Lenin is so all-powerful that if he gets to Russia, a Bolshevik October revolution must happen - the circumstances must be right, and in this timeline, they do not line up.

The Provisional Government would have not had any restriction on Lenin traveling from Switzerland to Russia. Former political prisoners and exiles were welcome. It was just that routes exclusively through Entente and neutral territory from Switzerland to Russia were insanely long and inconveniently, with travelers having to get up to Britain and Scandinavia or the Arctic, or down through Italy to Suez to Persia to get to Russia without going through Germany or Austria.

In peacetime, Lenin traveling from Switzerland to a post-Tsarist democratic Russia would not have been a problem at all.

I think in 1917, Trotsky traveled from New York City to Petrograd without problems.

  Ah isn't the POD that Italy doesn't do a dow on Austria in 1915?  There will be butterflies from this and I would expect a desperate Germany to be willing to send Lenin and his colleagues back once a democratic government in Russia would allow it.  Lenin does seem to have been very important in getting the Bolsheviks, which were to a large degree his own invention, into a position of power to oppose the Provisional Government.

[raharris1973]

Aug 23, 2022 12:38:11 GMT stevep said:

Aug 23, 2022 0:47:03 GMT raharris1973 said:

575 - I am not too wrapped up with the specifics of the Tsar's exile of Lenin's return home or lack of return home in this TL. I'm rather indifferent to it.

You can imagine what occurs with Lenin and sealed train as you wish.

My assumption was that Lenin's sealed train journey happened as historical in April 1917, because it is before the PoD.

I don't think Lenin is so all-powerful that if he gets to Russia, a Bolshevik October revolution must happen - the circumstances must be right, and in this timeline, they do not line up.

The Provisional Government would have not had any restriction on Lenin traveling from Switzerland to Russia. Former political prisoners and exiles were welcome. It was just that routes exclusively through Entente and neutral territory from Switzerland to Russia were insanely long and inconveniently, with travelers having to get up to Britain and Scandinavia or the Arctic, or down through Italy to Suez to Persia to get to Russia without going through Germany or Austria.

In peacetime, Lenin traveling from Switzerland to a post-Tsarist democratic Russia would not have been a problem at all.

I think in 1917, Trotsky traveled from New York City to Petrograd without problems.

  Ah isn't the POD that Italy doesn't do a dow on Austria in 1915?  There will be butterflies from this and I would expect a desperate Germany to be willing to send Lenin and his colleagues back once a democratic government in Russia would allow it.  Lenin does seem to have been very important in getting the Bolsheviks, which were to a large degree his own invention, into a position of power to oppose the Provisional Government.

I see the confusion I created-sorry about that- April 1917 is *not* before the POD of the whole scenario, which is earlier, definitely by 1915, with different Italian politics and decisions.

However, April 1917, the time of Lenin’s OTL journey, is before changes in this world’s timeline have really changed the timeline of revolutionary decay within Russia. Russia overthrew the Tsar, like OTL in early 1917 and starts to have Workers and Soldiers Councils (Soviets). But no party politicians are saying “make a separate peace” yet.

So, I agree with you, since Lenin is the most radical, disruptive and indifferent or anti war (and at least ant efficiency), Germany has every motive to abet him getting to Russia, just like OTL.

[raharris1973]

stevep said:

c) “The prime reason why I think the fighting will last longer is that with less advanced technology, especially in terms of air everything is going to be slower and more difficult. If Japan takes the Philippines, Guam and Wake and without open allies outside China itself the US is going to have to build up a lot of infrastructure and capabilities it doesn't have yet - although it will still be a matter of time.”

stevep- if a November 1919-July 1923 US-Japanese war is too short for you given the logistical challenges and technological limitations of the early 1920s, would altering the timeline to say that US-Japanese tensions blow up into sanctions by Sept 1918 and war by November 1918, and that the war lasts for four years and ten months (or a total of 58 months), until the destruction of the Japanese fleet, US liberation of the Philippines and finally the Kanto earthquake of September 1923 force Japan to finally capitulate is a more realistic timeline?

[stevep]

Aug 23, 2022 15:09:52 GMT raharris1973 said:

stevep said:

c) “The prime reason why I think the fighting will last longer is that with less advanced technology, especially in terms of air everything is going to be slower and more difficult. If Japan takes the Philippines, Guam and Wake and without open allies outside China itself the US is going to have to build up a lot of infrastructure and capabilities it doesn't have yet - although it will still be a matter of time.”

stevep - if a November 1919-July 1923 US-Japanese war is too short for you given the logistical challenges and technological limitations of the early 1920s, would altering the timeline to say that US-Japanese tensions blow up into sanctions by Sept 1918 and war by November 1918, and that the war lasts for four years and ten months (or a total of 58 months), until the destruction of the Japanese fleet, US liberation of the Philippines and finally the Kanto earthquake of September 1923 force Japan to finally capitulate is a more realistic timeline?

  That would very probably be enough, especially since that earlier start is likely to mean that the US had less to rebuild in terms of building up its military and also its production capacity.  Especially since the earthquake could be seen by at least some in Japan as divine displeasure about the war.

[raharris1973]

Aug 24, 2022 18:32:51 GMT stevep said:

Aug 23, 2022 15:09:52 GMT raharris1973 said:

stevep said:

c) “The prime reason why I think the fighting will last longer is that with less advanced technology, especially in terms of air everything is going to be slower and more difficult. If Japan takes the Philippines, Guam and Wake and without open allies outside China itself the US is going to have to build up a lot of infrastructure and capabilities it doesn't have yet - although it will still be a matter of time.”

stevep - if a November 1919-July 1923 US-Japanese war is too short for you given the logistical challenges and technological limitations of the early 1920s, would altering the timeline to say that US-Japanese tensions blow up into sanctions by Sept 1918 and war by November 1918, and that the war lasts for four years and ten months (or a total of 58 months), until the destruction of the Japanese fleet, US liberation of the Philippines and finally the Kanto earthquake of September 1923 force Japan to finally capitulate is a more realistic timeline?

  That would very probably be enough, especially since that earlier start is likely to mean that the US had less to rebuild in terms of building up its military and also its production capacity.  Especially since the earthquake could be seen by at least some in Japan as divine displeasure about the war.

It is interesting that this period, 4 years and 10 months, is both longer than OTL's WWII timeline of 3 years and 9 months (even though only a single front war) and the projected under 2 year timespan from Hector Bywater's fictional work of 1925, the Great Pacific War (of 1931-1933).  At 1931 technological levels, I wonder how long a US-Japan, one-on-one naval war [with perhaps China as an additional ground front] have taken to resolve.

[stevep]

Sept 9, 2022 9:33:06 GMT raharris1973 said:

Aug 24, 2022 18:32:51 GMT stevep said:

  That would very probably be enough, especially since that earlier start is likely to mean that the US had less to rebuild in terms of building up its military and also its production capacity.  Especially since the earthquake could be seen by at least some in Japan as divine displeasure about the war.

It is interesting that this period, 4 years and 10 months, is both longer than OTL's WWII timeline of 3 years and 9 months (even though only a single front war) and the projected under 2 year timespan from Hector Bywater's fictional work of 1925, the Great Pacific War (of 1931-1933).  At 1931 technological levels, I wonder how long a US-Japan, one-on-one naval war [with perhaps China as an additional ground front] have taken to resolve.

  Well I was thinking that the much weaker state of air power would make a big difference in delaying the defeat of Japan as they could cling on longer without the overwhelming US air power.  [Still going to be vastly greater in number than that of Japan once they get tooled up but markedly less capable - at least unless there's use of poison gas].  Plus Japan only has a 2 front war with China and at least and island hoping with the US.  Also IIRC the earlier end of WWI will mean the US gets a lot less combat experience. 

  However could well be wrong.  Its possibly that Japan would be less fanatical and if a few things go against them early, especially since there isn't the unconditional surrender term.  Go with the shorter war as I don't want to derail the thread too much on the matter.

[raharris1973]

Sept 9, 2022 11:11:55 GMT stevep said:

Sept 9, 2022 9:33:06 GMT raharris1973 said:

It is interesting that this period, 4 years and 10 months, is both longer than OTL's WWII timeline of 3 years and 9 months (even though only a single front war) and the projected under 2 year timespan from Hector Bywater's fictional work of 1925, the Great Pacific War (of 1931-1933).  At 1931 technological levels, I wonder how long a US-Japan, one-on-one naval war [with perhaps China as an additional ground front] have taken to resolve.

  Well I was thinking that the much weaker state of air power would make a big difference in delaying the defeat of Japan as they could cling on longer without the overwhelming US air power.  [Still going to be vastly greater in number than that of Japan once they get tooled up but markedly less capable - at least unless there's use of poison gas].  Plus Japan only has a 2 front war with China and at least and island hoping with the US.  Also IIRC the earlier end of WWI will mean the US gets a lot less combat experience. 

  However could well be wrong.  Its possibly that Japan would be less fanatical and if a few things go against them early, especially since there isn't the unconditional surrender term.  Go with the shorter war as I don't want to derail the thread too much on the matter.

No worries about derailment, mate! Tis I who have turned this slow, steady Italian train into a 4 wheel drive Range Rover. More focus on the main, Italian event, and the decades long consequences of this in Italy and its European neighborhood, will have to await the intervention of a person or people with greater knowledge or passion about it.

Incidentally, in the 1925 Great Pacific War book I referred to, there is copious battlefield use of poison gas, but no unconditional surrender- alongside basically Geneva-compliant PoW treatment.

[stevep]

Sept 9, 2022 14:19:50 GMT raharris1973 said:

Sept 9, 2022 11:11:55 GMT stevep said:

  Well I was thinking that the much weaker state of air power would make a big difference in delaying the defeat of Japan as they could cling on longer without the overwhelming US air power.  [Still going to be vastly greater in number than that of Japan once they get tooled up but markedly less capable - at least unless there's use of poison gas].  Plus Japan only has a 2 front war with China and at least and island hoping with the US.  Also IIRC the earlier end of WWI will mean the US gets a lot less combat experience. 

  However could well be wrong.  Its possibly that Japan would be less fanatical and if a few things go against them early, especially since there isn't the unconditional surrender term.  Go with the shorter war as I don't want to derail the thread too much on the matter.

No worries about derailment, mate! Tis I who have turned this slow, steady Italian train into a 4 wheel drive Range Rover. More focus on the main, Italian event, and the decades long consequences of this in Italy and its European neighborhood, will have to await the intervention of a person or people with greater knowledge or passion about it.

Incidentally, in the 1925 Great Pacific War book I referred to, there is copious battlefield use of poison gas, but no unconditional surrender- alongside basically Geneva-compliant PoW treatment.

  Thanks.

  On the last point I think I've seen references to that war here and elsewhere in the AH community.  I was thinking of gas because I do know that the US hadn't signed the convention on no 1st use and also according to at least some reports their plans for war with the British empire including the gassing of some targets, specifically Halifax IIRC.  [That's the one in Nova Scotia not the one in northern England.]

  Given that Japan was a lot less alienated from the west in the early 20's its far more likely they would abide by the Geneva rules, at least unless/until they thought that the US wasn't - at least in fighting the US.  Not sure how things would go in China as I could see either side getting nasty there and the other responding in kind.