melanie
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Post by melanie on Aug 28, 2022 22:54:19 GMT
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 28, 2022 23:45:40 GMT
Does 1923 Weimar Germany replace all Germany, or just East Germany and parts that became Poland?
If Kingdom of Yugoslavia over-writes 1948 Yugoslavia, a rump Titoist administration remains in Istria and the 1948 Yugoslav zone of Trieste.
Unless you modify it, the Soviets still have an occupation zone in eastern Austria as well. It is rather isolated however.
This is a spanner in Stalin's works.
Also, Israel will have to figure out some major alternate sources of arms for its war of independence, at least to get any of WWII quality, because Central and Southeast European states, like Czechoslovakia, will only have WWI level stuff.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 29, 2022 12:48:18 GMT
Does 1923 Weimar Germany replace all Germany, or just East Germany and parts that became Poland? If Kingdom of Yugoslavia over-writes 1948 Yugoslavia, a rump Titoist administration remains in Istria and the 1948 Yugoslav zone of Trieste. Unless you modify it, the Soviets still have an occupation zone in eastern Austria as well. It is rather isolated however. This is a spanner in Stalin's works. Also, Israel will have to figure out some major alternate sources of arms for its war of independence, at least to get any of WWII quality, because Central and Southeast European states, like Czechoslovakia, will only have WWI level stuff.
Good points. I think its basically the areas under Soviet control but not formally part of the USSR that is being mentioned. For instance those parts of Poland and Germany annexed by the USSR, along with Bessarabia/Moldava would stay part of the 1948 USSR but see what Melanie says. Plus with Germany it would just be the Weimar in the Soviet occupation zone, the allied zones in Germany generally and W Berlin still being from 1948.
Stalin has lost a lot of controlled territory and also all the forces and security people that were in the occupied Soviet zone. However those areas are accepted by internal agreement to be under Soviet control and also their now quite weak, as well as confused by the sudden position their in. As such it would be fairly easy for them to occupy the regions again, provided that the west doesn't oppose this. The west, having largely demobilized has relatively little forces on the ground in the western zone of Germany or the world in general at this stage but they do have forces in place and a monopoly of the bomb. Would Truman decide that the fact the 1923 people have done nothing to deserve Soviet occupation - although there could be the standard issue with any war criminals, especially leading Nazis who were in the affected area in 1923 - and hence the prior agreement is null and void? If so does Stalin back down or decide to call Truman's bluff and if so is it a bluff.
At this stage the Berlin blockade hasn't yet started - not until June 48 - and the Chinese civil war is still ongoing. As such any clash could easily spread outside Europe across much of east Asia and possibly the ME as well given Anglo-American domination of the latter and its proximity to the Soviet Union. Also just remembered that the Greek civil war is ongoing until 1949 so that would be a source of tension but the communists have lost their supply centres and refuges in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria.
If Truman doesn't decide to oppose this the down-timers are going to be stomped pretty damned quickly but it won't be without costs to the Soviets, who are already reeling from the loss of their forces in the region. Plus there would be issues with Albania and Yugoslavia which weren't part of the Warsaw Pact. All those areas wouldn't have been devastated by WWII but are technological somewhat backward, even in Germany compared to their 1948 versions. There would be a mass exodus of people, probably especially from Germany and Bohemia as they would be within reach of a border with western Germany. Possibly for some Yugoslavs - into Italy or Greece along with Bulgarians into Greece and Turkey but given old hatreds and also less communications in those southern regions this could be less significant.
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Aug 29, 2022 13:00:49 GMT
the 1923 non-USSR countries i wikipedia linked to? *all* their 1923 territory comes to 1948, plus 1923 Albania and Yugoslavia. raharris1973, stevep, |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 29, 2022 13:33:31 GMT
the 1923 non-USSR countries i wikipedia linked to? *all* their 1923 territory comes to 1948, plus 1923 Albania and Yugoslavia. raharris1973 , stevep ,
Right so its all of 1923 Germany, Poland etc. That means even bigger Soviet territorial and human losses but also removes the western presence in OTL W Berlin and what became the FRG. Everybody's going to be confused and uncertain and Stalin is more likely to make a move here.
You also have Hitler and a lot of other leading Nazis still alive so regardless of the legal issue of prosecuting someone for something they haven't yet done a lot of people are going to be out for his blood. His Beer Hall Putsch wasn't until Nov 23 so he's still a relatively minor fringe figure but Germany is reeling from the self-imposed hyper-inflation. Poland is more stable at this point and possibly well armed to defend against another Soviet attack - if that had been the 1923 Red Army - but not a 1948 one. Czechoslovakia is in decent condition as well but again not prepared for the development of weapons. Even more so with the other nations to the south.
Not sure at all what happens in this scenario but think that Stalin will seek to 'take back' at least the 1948 USSR borders and want the leading Nazis brought to 'justice'. Which is probably going to be an excuse for him to take over at least the regions under Soviet control prior to the ISOT. I think war of some kind is inevitable.
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Aug 29, 2022 13:56:48 GMT
stevep, 1923 Poland, 1923 Czechoslovakia and 1923 Romania have all taken big chunks out of the 1948 USSR. Fewer local communists and fifth columnists in these countries for Stalin to use in 1923 as well. Poland especially is in no mood to just roll over and take it. Not five years after undoing the Partitions.
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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 4, 2022 21:08:44 GMT
stevep, 1923 Poland, 1923 Czechoslovakia and 1923 Romania have all taken big chunks out of the 1948 USSR. Fewer local communists and fifth columnists in these countries for Stalin to use in 1923 as well. Poland especially is in no mood to just roll over and take it. Not five years after undoing the Partitions. So the only territory that is uptime Soviet bloc in this TL is Soviet Union in its 1938 European borders, plus the Baltic states in their interwar borders, plus whatever the Soviets occupied in Asia at this time? |
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Sept 25, 2022 12:08:50 GMT
Yes
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 25, 2022 12:13:05 GMT
A little bit more than a single word please, this is not a arcade game in General Chat. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 28, 2022 12:05:46 GMT
A little bit more than a single word please, this is not a arcade game in General Chat. To be fair, Melanie did give a very clear and effective answer to my straightforward question. Didn't have to use so many words, because I embedded all the necessary words in the question itself. - The Reds have a military advantage over East-Central Europe. The US and Truman would have to rely on atomic threat and mobilization potential to deter Stalin. The US, Britain and France have lost their modern occupation forces in western Germany. In their place, they have early 1920s French, Belgian and British forces sitting in the Weimar Rhineland, in addition to the 1948 British, French and BENELUX militaries on hand, plus US-deployed Air Force in in Britain and Italy. |
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