melanie
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Post by melanie on Sept 4, 2022 14:05:50 GMT
What are the main knock-on war and post-war effects of a Hitlerite invasion of Turkey?
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Sept 4, 2022 16:05:35 GMT
Oh Boy, here we go again...
This is popular trope in AH Forums.
Biggest Issue with Invasion of neutral Turkey is crossing Bosporus, next to that lack of infrastructure and extrem hostile locals.
The Turkish route to Baku oilfields is very popular AH scenario, sadly 1940s Turkey lack allot like bridge or paved road or Rail Ways.
A Turkish invasion, Is waste on Wehrmacht personal and material, needed elsewhere. like the USSR invasion...
about German Occupy Turkey, who will liberate it the British or Soviets ?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 4, 2022 16:24:36 GMT
Oh Boy, here we go again... This is popular trope in AH Forums. But not yet on this one, I think. |
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Sept 4, 2022 16:28:33 GMT
But not yet on this one, I think. yeah, your are right, melanie must be first one here, Alternatehistory.com is overrun with this those proposals... |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 4, 2022 16:40:58 GMT
But not yet on this one, I think. yeah, your are right, melanie must be first one here, Alternatehistory.com is overrun with this those proposals... Germany invading Turkey is going to put Germany plan to invade the Soviet Union way off track. |
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Sept 4, 2022 16:44:44 GMT
I want a decent discussion. Hitler was not rational. Ian Kershaw points out in his definitive biography of the Nazi dictator that by the early 1940s Hitler was showings signs of what today is recognised as early-onset dementia. As with "Hitler goes for Malta and Cyprus" it could have happened.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Sept 4, 2022 17:03:45 GMT
I want a decent discussion. Hitler was not rational. Ian Kershaw points out in his definitive biography of the Nazi dictator that by the early 1940s Hitler was showings signs of what today is recognised as early-onset dementia. As with "Hitler goes for Malta and Cyprus" it could have happened. This is a decent discussion. But after having invaded Yugoslavia and Greece, I think Germany needed to rest its forces. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Sept 4, 2022 17:52:40 GMT
I want a decent discussion. Hitler was not rational. Ian Kershaw points out in his definitive biography of the Nazi dictator that by the early 1940s Hitler was showings signs of what today is recognised as early-onset dementia. As with "Hitler goes for Malta and Cyprus" it could have happened. This is a decent discussion. But after having invaded Yugoslavia and Greece, I think Germany needed to rest its forces.
Well it could do it, or at least try but it would need to postpone Barbarossa, probably for at least a year.
Also Russia is traditionally very cautious about who controls the straits, let alone a potential access route to Baku. Can't remember if there was anything in the MR Pact about it but even through Germany and the Soviets were still kind of allies at that point any German invasion of Russia, even if Berlin is proclaiming loudly its to fight the British in the ME is going to set alarm bells ringing in Moscow. Even without the issues that michelvan, has mentioned.
Its not just the appalling logistical issues in Anatolia as well. To get there, other than what resources can be sent down the Danube and then across the Black Sea, everything has to be sent through the Balkans transport network, which even before the Axis has to crush Yugoslavia and Greece isn't exactly the best in the world.
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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 4, 2022 21:54:58 GMT
I want a decent discussion. Hitler was not rational. Ian Kershaw points out in his definitive biography of the Nazi dictator that by the early 1940s Hitler was showings signs of what today is recognised as early-onset dementia. As with "Hitler goes for Malta and Cyprus" it could have happened. I will give you a fair discussion. It depends what you are expecting the Nazis to achieve with this invasion of Turkey? 1. Seize control of European Turkey within days/weeks? Absolutely yes. 2. Seize control of the the Asian side of the straits and thus shipping through the straits themselves, within a few days/ weeks? Absolutely yes. Nobody should kid themselves and think that the straits were as much of an obstacle or anywhere near as wide as the English Channel. One side of the straits was in artillery range of the other- artillery and plenty of tacair could support infantry in small watercraft, just like in all the other Greek isles of the Aegean. 3. Seize control of the western Anatolian lands where a majority of the ethnic Turks lived, in a campaign lasting no more than two and a half as many weeks as the Greco-Yugoslav campaign, probably yes. 4. Occupy all of Turkey, up to its eastern and southern borders before the OTL BARBAROSSA kick off date with a full strength army ready to leap from northeast Turkey to Baku? No- that won’t happen, the Nazis would never get so far, so fast, and be in condition to keep going. If they tried, the Soviets would not be caught by surprise. The absolute minimum ‘cut’ of Turkey the Soviets would take for themselves as a buffer would be Kars-Ardahan to restore the 1914 frontier. They could go further to get ‘Wilsonian Armenia’ or the lands of furthest. Russian advance in WWI. That is if they don’t go. To war over Turkey. 5. Nazis occupy Turkey, then northern Iraq and exploit its oil? Not a chance of that happening in a year. The British will topple any pro Germans and penetrate southeast Turkey long before Germans get to Mosul. If the Germans got to Mosul, pumps and refineries would be blown before the Germans got them. If occupied. And rebuilt, yeats would be required to build the logistical infrastructure to. Move any fuel surplus (that somehow survives bombing and ground attacks) back to Europe. 6. Nazis occupy Turkey, enabling a sweep down to Suez and its closure in 1941- no not gonna happen, with all the logistical bottlenecks and British anticipation of the German arrival. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Sept 6, 2022 23:34:29 GMT
7. Turkey becomes the Nazi land bridge for the eventual takeover of Arabia and India, crushing the British Empire, or the land bridge to invasions of Soviet Central Asia - No, only in Hitler's dreams, it takes far too much time, investment, and construction and other resources Hitler doesn't have, or has better immediate uses for, to support forces at such a distance. Any forces pushed in that direction in terms of ground forces or tactical air weaken the available punch for Barbarossa on the European frontier of the Soviet Union.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 7, 2022 22:39:22 GMT
There is one thing to consider: What'd Inönü do if the Nazis stuka a major Turkish city - say, Izmir - just like they did with Belgrade not that long before, and tell him: "Istanbul's next if you don't surrender!"? You know they might do it...
I don't think Inönü is a coward, but guerilla war might be a better option for the Turks. The Germans would need an ace up their sleeve to win that. Can you think of one?
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Sept 8, 2022 4:57:43 GMT
Indeed.
Guernica, Rotterdam, Warsaw, and Coventry are why Frankfurt and Dresden and Hiroshima happened. That should not be forgotten or obscured when right wing elements in Japan say their country are the "real" victim.
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