Plausibility check on how I think the end of ww2 would have gone had the Americans never taken Hawai

[gillan1220]

Sept 12, 2022 18:48:02 GMT justiniano said:

the facebook group?

Yeah that group. One OP asked if there was no Filipino-American War, what would the butterflies be like for Asia. One responded that by the alt WWII, the Japanese would focus on British and Dutch colonies instead and would most likely bypass the Philippines providing it was an independent republic aligned with Japan.

Sept 12, 2022 18:58:47 GMT miletus12 said:

To be honest, I do not see much difference between Aguinaldo and maybe Marcos. He, Emilio, was willing to stooge for whoever paid him the most or held a gun to his head. He set a rotten precedent by abandoning teleological principles and accepting bribes from Fernando Primo de Rivera. The Pact of Biak-na-Bato sure seems from my point of view to be a betrayal of the Filipino people. At least when the Americans jailed Aguinaldo, they did not bribe him (I think) to behave when he was finally paroled. I still think the Filipino civil government should have been built up without Aguinaldo.   

Mabini and Bonifacio are considered to be better candidates for creating a truly democratic Philippine Republic than Aguinaldo. The First Philippine Republic was basically a military dictatorship but was known as the first modern republic in Asia, even predating the Republic of China.

[michelvan]

Sept 12, 2022 18:49:39 GMT miletus12 said:

I think we go after the Mandates and the Solomons and other Spanish possessions peripheral to the Philippine Archipelago, including the Mariana Islands. Then we have an interesting "problem". It would be the USN at Yap, Rabaul and Truk. What will the Japanese do? 

More importantly, what will the British do? The Americans and the Dutch will have a keen joint interest to limit the British. And that combo in that region of the world could do it. Who knows, the French might just join the combine as well.  
   

Japan Imperial Navy has hell of problem: who to bomb first ?
They have limits resources and Fleet to do only one surprise Attack at time.
So who bomb first the owner of Hawaii or US military harbour in Pacific ?
other issue is once the Attack one, the other is warned ( Japan Fleet can attack one at time)
Worst case scenario they success full attack one with losses, then attack second Harbor and got destroy by warned Enemy

[gillan1220]

Sept 12, 2022 19:11:26 GMT michelvan said:

Sept 12, 2022 18:49:39 GMT miletus12 said:

I think we go after the Mandates and the Solomons and other Spanish possessions peripheral to the Philippine Archipelago, including the Mariana Islands. Then we have an interesting "problem". It would be the USN at Yap, Rabaul and Truk. What will the Japanese do? 

More importantly, what will the British do? The Americans and the Dutch will have a keen joint interest to limit the British. And that combo in that region of the world could do it. Who knows, the French might just join the combine as well.  
   

Japan Imperial Navy has hell of problem: who to bomb first ?
They have limits resources and Fleet to do only one surprise Attack at time.
So who bomb first the owner of Hawaii or US military harbour in Pacific ?
other issue is once the Attack one, the other is warned ( Japan Fleet can attack one at time)
Worst case scenario they success full attack one with losses, then attack second Harbor and got destroy by warned Enemy

I think Japan would chose to bomb Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies first because without Hawaii as the headquarters of the USN Pacific Fleet, that would place it in San Diego instead. I doubt the IJN could even reach that far, since it's pretty much suicide for the IJN to be so close to the CONUS where air cover could be established by the USAAF and the USN aviation. The subs could also be prowling the waters off the coast of California.

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 19:11:26 GMT michelvan said:

Sept 12, 2022 18:49:39 GMT miletus12 said:

I think we go after the Mandates and the Solomons and other Spanish possessions peripheral to the Philippine Archipelago, including the Mariana Islands. Then we have an interesting "problem". It would be the USN at Yap, Rabaul and Truk. What will the Japanese do? 

More importantly, what will the British do? The Americans and the Dutch will have a keen joint interest to limit the British. And that combo in that region of the world could do it. Who knows, the French might just join the combine as well.  
   

Japan Imperial Navy has hell of problem: who to bomb first ?
They have limits resources and Fleet to do only one surprise Attack at time.
So who bomb first the owner of Hawaii or US military harbour in Pacific ?
other issue is once the Attack one, the other is warned ( Japan Fleet can attack one at time)
Worst case scenario they success full attack one with losses, then attack second Harbor and got destroy by warned Enemy

The situation in the real history is that the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor, then Darwin, Australia and then hit Columbo and Tricomalee, Sri Lanka in sequence. The limiter for an aircraft carrier strike fleet was oil tanker support, trained pilot cadres and replacement strike aircraft. As long as the Japanese could keep Kido Budai fueled, manned, armed with planes and existent, they could wander at will and bomb what they wanted. It was only when they split their concentrated force apart and lost aircraft carriers that their enemies managed to stop them.

So: if the Japanese are presented a different target set, the geography will dictate sequence with Truk and then Rabaul, but they still can land-base and convoy invade the Kra Peninsula once they march into Indochina. It was French Indochina that made Singapore and the Burma disasters possible. I doubt the Japanese will allow a neutral Philippine Republic. The Tojo regime was not that accommodating. it would be most likely that the substitute for Coral Sea would be Yap or maybe the Sulu Sea.

It could be interesting to see how that one shapes up. I would expect Dutch-American land-based air going against Kido Budai.

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 19:30:42 GMT gillan1220 said:

Sept 12, 2022 19:11:26 GMT michelvan said:

Japan Imperial Navy has hell of problem: who to bomb first ?
They have limits resources and Fleet to do only one surprise Attack at time.
So who bomb first the owner of Hawaii or US military harbour in Pacific ?
other issue is once the Attack one, the other is warned ( Japan Fleet can attack one at time)
Worst case scenario they success full attack one with losses, then attack second Harbor and got destroy by warned Enemy

I think Japan would chose to bomb Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies first because without Hawaii as the headquarters of the USN Pacific Fleet, that would place it in San Diego instead. I doubt the IJN could even reach that far, since it's pretty much suicide for the IJN to be so close to the CONUS where air cover could be established by the USAAF and the USN aviation. The subs could also be prowling the waters off the coast of California.

See my previous answer and the map.

[gillan1220]

Sept 12, 2022 19:41:29 GMT miletus12 said:

Sept 12, 2022 19:30:42 GMT gillan1220 said:

I think Japan would chose to bomb Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies first because without Hawaii as the headquarters of the USN Pacific Fleet, that would place it in San Diego instead. I doubt the IJN could even reach that far, since it's pretty much suicide for the IJN to be so close to the CONUS where air cover could be established by the USAAF and the USN aviation. The subs could also be prowling the waters off the coast of California.

See my previous answer and the map.

Right, I kind off forgot the Japanese would target the British Raj as well once they get to control the Straits of Malacca.

[stevep]

Sept 11, 2022 22:44:08 GMT justiniano said:

Sept 11, 2022 19:10:12 GMT stevep said:

has a much earlier PoD in the 11thC

*13th C (ik in pm's I told u 12th C, I made a mistake)

  OK thanks for the correction.  Reminds me not to rely on my memory.

  A later POD then does make more practical the transfer of gunpowder weapons to the islands.  Not sure what sort they would be as only a vague idea what was happening in Europe, which was pretty primitive the following century, let alone the status of the technology in China.

[stevep]

Sept 12, 2022 2:39:42 GMT miletus12 said:

Sept 8, 2022 23:01:29 GMT stevep said:

Of course if Hawaii wasn't available - most likely option is that the UK established a protectorate before the US planters can gain such power.

They tried, Steve. They muffed it.

  Actually they didn't.  Assuming your referring to the independent action of a naval commander, George Paulet in 1843?  Although this could have ended up with that result if the US had been a bit more rash.  See the video posted in michelvan, post yesterday although that has some factual inaccuracies.  For instance in the 1840's there would be few if any E Asian workers on the islands given that both Japan and Korea were still very much closed societies and China was only just being slightly opened up thanks to the recently concluded 'Opium War'.    As such the position of the US planters on Hawaii were vulnerable to local opposition.  Even as late as the 1890's when their successors organised the coup to overthrow the monarchy this only succeeded because the Hawaiian army feared the coup was supported by the US government because of the presence of their warships.

[stevep]

Sept 12, 2022 18:05:08 GMT gillan1220 said:

I remember someone proposed a similar scenario on Alternate History Online. Basically, this butterflies away the U.S. taking Guam and the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. The Pacific Fleet would remain in San Diego or up in Bremerton, Washington. The butterflies would have already been felt since there would be no Filipino-American War. The Philippines under Emilio Aguinaldo will be a pro-Japanese republic as with OTL, since Aguinaldo sought help from Japan to fight both the Spanish and the Americans.

Assuming Japan still goes south on December 7/8, 1941, the target would have been Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies. For all we know, the pro-Japanese Philippines would have already allowed the Japanese to have bases in the country.

  Remembering of course that such a butterfly in 1898 could well prevent OTL WWI let alone details of WWII.

[stevep]

Sept 12, 2022 18:49:39 GMT miletus12 said:

Sept 11, 2022 15:59:02 GMT michelvan said:

The Idea is intriguing
but rase a question, who own Hawaii ?

you see Hawaii is perfect place for Military Harbor to controls the Pacific !
1848 Hawaii almost became British thanks Lord George Paulette overreaction to a "rumor"
but already then the USA had interest on Hawaii because it location and resources and intervene.
(and the protection of US citizen who form the rich plantation owners on Hawaii)

You need a POD around 1778 were British or the French get Hawaii and keep the USA out the Island
in that case Japan bomb in 1941 a British or French Harbor of Hawaii

or not ?
The USA will find and build a Military Harbor in Pacific,
On island Tutuila of American Samoa, it become a strategically important island for US military !
and additional target for Imperial Japanese Navy
but with attack on British or french Pearl Harbor in 1941
the US Navy is warned and will be Prepared and Japanese Raid on Pago Pago harbor could end as battle of Midway...

source:

I think we go after the Mandates and the Solomons and other Spanish possessions peripheral to the Philippine Archipelago, including the Mariana Islands. Then we have an interesting "problem". It would be the USN at Yap, Rabaul and Truk. What will the Japanese do? 

More importantly, what will the British do? The Americans and the Dutch will have a keen joint interest to limit the British. And that combo in that region of the world could do it. Who knows, the French might just join the combine as well.  
   

a)  POD could be much later as the US can't contest the islands with either Britain or France - if the latter is determined and not distracted elsewhere, until at least the 1850s.  Also such a change would probably butterfly WWII or change it drastically.

b)  Assuming that the US expands to the Pacific coast it will want to expand its domain across the Pacific if only to secure better access to China and also support for whalers and other such operations,  As such if denied Hawaii they would get somewhere else but where would depend on the circumstances.  They might go for somewhere like the Solomon's as their unclaimed until the 1890's but their a bit distant.  Spanish possessions would mean either a purchase or a war with Spain.  How that's done and when would also seriously affect world history.

c)  Could just as easily be a Franco-Dutch/British/Japanese bloc seeking to deter US expansion.   Again a lot would depend on the circumstances and they could well vary greatly.

d)  That's the same video that michelvan, posted but while it looks at the 1843 incident it doesn't really look through the potential fall-out or how Hawaii is likely to develop if the still relatively weak planter domination was removed.

[stevep]

Sept 12, 2022 19:30:42 GMT gillan1220 said:

Sept 12, 2022 19:11:26 GMT michelvan said:

Japan Imperial Navy has hell of problem: who to bomb first ?
They have limits resources and Fleet to do only one surprise Attack at time.
So who bomb first the owner of Hawaii or US military harbour in Pacific ?
other issue is once the Attack one, the other is warned ( Japan Fleet can attack one at time)
Worst case scenario they success full attack one with losses, then attack second Harbor and got destroy by warned Enemy

I think Japan would chose to bomb Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies first because without Hawaii as the headquarters of the USN Pacific Fleet, that would place it in San Diego instead. I doubt the IJN could even reach that far, since it's pretty much suicide for the IJN to be so close to the CONUS where air cover could be established by the USAAF and the USN aviation. The subs could also be prowling the waters off the coast of California.

  I would say that in the unlikely event of something like OTL Dec 41 position developing with a POD at least 50-100 years before the Japanese would go for the prime USN base IF their Pacific fleet is deployed forward as they would see that as the primary threat, because in such a position an hard pressed Britain won't be a serious hostile threat and also won't be the primary driver for an anti-Japanese bloc.  They would expect to be able to defeat the under-defended British and Dutch exile forces if they can prevent the US intervening.  [Whether the 2nd assumption is accurate would depend on the circumstances. ]

[justiniano]

Sept 12, 2022 19:05:14 GMT gillan1220 said:

Yeah that group.

I'm in that fb group. Wanna add each other on fb?

[gillan1220]

Sept 13, 2022 1:43:10 GMT justiniano said:

Sept 12, 2022 19:05:14 GMT gillan1220 said:

Yeah that group.

I'm in that fb group. Wanna add each other on fb?

Send me a PM.

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 20:35:53 GMT stevep said:

Sept 12, 2022 2:39:42 GMT miletus12 said:

They tried, Steve. They muffed it.

  Actually they didn't.  Assuming your referring to the independent action of a naval commander, George Paulet in 1843?  Although this could have ended up with that result if the US had been a bit more rash.  See the video posted in michelvan , post yesterday although that has some factual inaccuracies.  For instance in the 1840's there would be few if any E Asian workers on the islands given that both Japan and Korea were still very much closed societies and China was only just being slightly opened up thanks to the recently concluded 'Opium War'.    As such the position of the US planters on Hawaii were vulnerable to local opposition.  Even as late as the 1890's when their successors organised the coup to overthrow the monarchy this only succeeded because the Hawaiian army feared the coup was supported by the US government because of the presence of their warships.

I'm referring to this and this rascal. The Americans would not have pounced as they did, if he had not given them just cause.

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 20:53:24 GMT stevep said:

a)  POD could be much later as the US can't contest the islands with either Britain or France - if the latter is determined and not distracted elsewhere, until at least the 1850s.  Also such a change would probably butterfly WWII or change it drastically.

b)  Assuming that the US expands to the Pacific coast it will want to expand its domain across the Pacific if only to secure better access to China and also support for whalers and other such operations,  As such if denied Hawaii they would get somewhere else but where would depend on the circumstances.  They might go for somewhere like the Solomon's as their unclaimed until the 1890's but their a bit distant.  Spanish possessions would mean either a purchase or a war with Spain.  How that's done and when would also seriously affect world history.

c)  Could just as easily be a Franco-Dutch/British/Japanese bloc seeking to deter US expansion.   Again a lot would depend on the circumstances and they could well vary greatly.

d)  That's the same video that michelvan, posted but while it looks at the 1843 incident it doesn't really look through the potential fall-out or how Hawaii is likely to develop if the still relatively weak planter domination was removed.

a. Prior to 1850, the US is in no position to contest the Pacific with anyone. Once California and Washington and Oregon are acquired, nobody is in a position to contest the North Pacific with the United States.  This is a confluence of steam powered ships, a string of USG owned naval bases, naval stores west of the Rockies, the establishment of Union Iron Works. Once the Americans establish a first-class naval facility (Bremerton) in the region, the British are through. 

b. Smarter people at the time would have aimed for Truk Lagoon and Rabaul. War with Spain was inevitable. When the USN first established a naval general staff, it was to plot for such a war. Notice I did not write "plan"?

c. True, but with the real animosities that existed between the British in the Malay Settlements and the Dutch in Java, and add OIL, that seems a distant alternative, at least after 1900.  The more likely outcome with a less incompetent and more aggressive British local presence is that the threatened parties would aggregate. I could see a French led effort. The British were not all that well liked either in Paris or Amsterdam or surprisingly, Washington, despite the revisionist post WWII histories. The only ones less liked were the Germans and the Russians.      
     
d. I agree. Prior to 1870, the Sugar Interest was not strong enough to matter. Perhaps not even by 1887 if the Hawaiian Monarchy had not been so incompetent?