Plausibility check on how I think the end of ww2 would have gone had the Americans never taken Hawai

[justiniano]

Without them having Hawaii, the US is unable to embargo Japan to the extent it did in OTL. This means the Japanese wouldn't have wanted Indonesia anywhere near as badly, so they leave it alone, however Indochina at a minimum was fair game after the fall of France, and Malaysia had rubber and a third of the worlds proven tin at the time. The US would still have joined the war against the Nazis, by 1940, polls showed 60% or more of Americans were in favor of war. In the 1940 election, Democrats picked up seats in Congress and FDR won one of the biggest landslides ever. So, since Japan still takes some of the European colonies in Asia, after the European axis powers are defeated, Japan is forced to give them back in a war, but without pearl harbor the war against them isn't fought til the end, so the allies don't fight them out of China. However since China is such an honor based society and the Japanese rule in China was anything but honorable and China had such a larger population than Japan, the Japanese would have a very, VERY hard time holding on to much of China (with big revolts being expensive to put down and being quite frequent I might add), after being kicked out of Europe they'd be too exhausted to hold on to much of it, so they'd likely hold on to Manchuria and go on to conquer inner Mongolia since this region of China is barely majority-Han Chinese. Due to Japan not being so weakened by the US fighting them out of the pacific etc. Russia never takes Manchuria, which means the Chinese civil war is probably the first proxy war of the cold war. Then after Japan consolidates it's power on the rest of China it becomes a 3rd superpower in a 3-way cold war. 

[stevep]

Sept 8, 2022 22:05:34 GMT justiniano said:

Without them having Hawaii, the US is unable to embargo Japan to the extent it did in OTL. This means the Japanese wouldn't have wanted Indonesia anywhere near as badly, so they leave it alone, however Indochina at a minimum was fair game after the fall of France, and Malaysia had rubber and a third of the worlds proven tin at the time. The US would still have joined the war against the Nazis, by 1940, polls showed 60% or more of Americans were in favor of war. In the 1940 election, Democrats picked up seats in Congress and FDR won one of the biggest landslides ever. So, since Japan still takes some of the European colonies in Asia, after the European axis powers are defeated, Japan is forced to give them back in a war, but without pearl harbor the war against them isn't fought til the end, so the allies don't fight them out of China. However since China is such an honor based society and the Japanese rule in China was anything but honorable and China had such a larger population than Japan, the Japanese would have a very, VERY hard time holding on to much of China (with big revolts being expensive to put down and being quite frequent I might add), after being kicked out of Europe they'd be too exhausted to hold on to much of it, so they'd likely hold on to Manchuria and go on to conquer inner Mongolia since this region of China is barely majority-Han Chinese. Due to Japan not being so weakened by the US fighting them out of the pacific etc. Russia never takes Manchuria, which means the Chinese civil war is probably the first proxy war of the cold war. Then after Japan consolidates it's power on the rest of China it becomes a 3rd superpower in a 3-way cold war. 

  Interesting idea but the US embargo wasn't reliant on a military base for it to work.  Instead it was based on the fact that with so many countries already at war and the economic power of the US it, the British empire and the Dutch government in exile controlled the vast majority of vital materials for the Japanese government.  If the US never occupied Hawaii and established a fleet base there it wouldn't in itself have affected the embargo which forced Japan into a back down or go for broke position.

  Of course if Hawaii wasn't available - most likely option is that the UK established a protectorate before the US planters can gain such power - then of course they would presumably seek to obtain other bases in the Pacific, especially assuming they still take the Philippines from Spain.  This might be Manila in which case a US-Japanese war - assuming the same tensions and mistrust between the two nations developed - is quite probable in the early 1920s as the Japanese seek to prevent the US establishing a fleet base across their vital trade lines. 

  Assuming that doesn't happen and events elsewhere in the world are still basically similar to OTL then the question would be where the US forward Pacific base would be, as I would expect they would want something forward of California to protect their interests and project power.  Possibly they take more islands in the Carolina's and the like from Spain in which case Japan can't take them from Germany in WWI.  If so such a location for a Pacific fleet base would be markedly more vulnerable to a sneak attack than Pearl but that might mean the US prepares against such an attack.  Or while they have bases there they don't move their fleet from San Diego.

  If somehow the US doesn't go to war on a Japanese attack on western possessions in the western Pacific - which seems unlikely as if the US had the Philippines and are still imposing an embargo Japan would feel it imperative to remove such a threat especially if as OTL the US is boosting its defences there at a considerable rate - then a lot would depend on the circumstances when Nazi Germany is defeated.  Doubtful that the US would join the European war as early as you suggest without some substantial butterflies compared to OTL.  Especially since also such an attack on its interests would force Britain [along with Australia, India and New Zealand] to move forces to defend themselves and their interests against Japan, which would seriously distract from the war your assuming their fighting alongside the US by this stage.

  If somehow the end of the war did turn out roughly as you suggest then I'm doubtful Japan would have the basis to become a 3rd super-power.  [Think the most likely way for this may be that the US doesn't impose an embargo or pressurize the British and Dutch to do likewise and there is no war in the Far East/Pacific.]  In that case or when the war in Europe ends anyway there is going to be a lot more US aid to China and as you suggest Japan is going to be forced out of China proper.  This would however be a very bloody conflict and drain both sides.  After this Japan would want a high military spending rate to guard Manchuria against both China and Russia even if it gave up any naval deterrent to the US.  Coupled to still having a very inefficient and brutal military regime I can't see it being a significant power outside NE Asia.

  Some interesting ideas but I think for the points mentioned the scenario has some serious problems.  Sorry.

  Steve

[justiniano]

ty steve. Can I pm u what I have so far for the timeline?

[stevep]

Sept 9, 2022 2:19:17 GMT justiniano said:

ty steve. Can I pm u what I have so far for the timeline?

  You can but I might be a while replying as I'm often on other sites.  Be interesting to see how you have the world developing up to the point where WWII starts.

[michelvan]

The Idea is intriguing
but rase a question, who own Hawaii ?

you see Hawaii is perfect place for Military Harbor to controls the Pacific !
1848 Hawaii almost became British thanks Lord George Paulette overreaction to a "rumor"
but already then the USA had interest on Hawaii because it location and resources and intervene.
(and the protection of US citizen who form the rich plantation owners on Hawaii)

You need a POD around 1778 were British or the French get Hawaii and keep the USA out the Island
in that case Japan bomb in 1941 a British or French Harbor of Hawaii

or not ?
The USA will find and build a Military Harbor in Pacific,
On island Tutuila of American Samoa, it become a strategically important island for US military !
and additional target for Imperial Japanese Navy
but with attack on British or french Pearl Harbor in 1941
the US Navy is warned and will be Prepared and Japanese Raid on Pago Pago harbor could end as battle of Midway...

source:

[stevep]

Sept 11, 2022 15:59:02 GMT michelvan said:

The Idea is intriguing
but rase a question, who own Hawaii ?

you see Hawaii is perfect place for Military Harbor to controls the Pacific !
1848 Hawaii almost became British thanks Lord George Paulette overreaction to a "rumor"
but already then the USA had interest on Hawaii because it location and resources and intervene.
(and the protection of US citizen who form the rich plantation owners on Hawaii)

You need a POD around 1778 were British or the French get Hawaii and keep the USA out the Island
in that case Japan bomb in 1941 a British or French Harbor of Hawaii

or not ?
The USA will find and build a Military Harbor in Pacific,
On island Tutuila of American Samoa, it become a strategically important island for US military !
and additional target for Imperial Japanese Navy
but with attack on British or french Pearl Harbor in 1941
the US Navy is warned and will be Prepared and Japanese Raid on Pago Pago harbor could end as battle of Midway...

source:

  Interesting but I think he's too pessimistic over the fate of Hawaii in the scenario proposed.  A war in the 1840's is likely to see the removal of the American planters as their power is likely to be broken and the monarchy having a good chance to remove them.  Hawaii is likely to end up as a British protectorate and hence the monarchy probably continuing as in other states such as Tonga and Fiji.  With Britain having its own sugar sources both in the Caribbean and with the increasing use of sugar beet in Europe the market is disappearing.  There might be demand in the US but it could be met by local sources more easily and also with this war the US could even fail to get a Pacific coastline if all of Oregon ends up in British hands, which would be quite possible.  [Since such a conflict would at least delay any attack on Mexico.  Actually it might even butterfly Texas joining the union as well as that occurred in 1845 and is unlikely while a war is possibly still ongoing or the US is recovering from it.

  Butterfly the US taking control of Hawaii may not in itself stop their later war with Spain but given the size of the deflection from OTL just about anything can happen.

  Actually I know from private exchanges justiniano, has a much earlier PoD in the 11thC but as I've explained that in my view would almost certainly change the entire world drastically and it would be unrecognizable compared to today's.

[justiniano]

Sept 11, 2022 19:10:12 GMT stevep said:

has a much earlier PoD in the 11thC

*13th C (ik in pm's I told u 12th C, I made a mistake)

[miletus12]

Sept 8, 2022 22:05:34 GMT justiniano said:

Without them having Hawaii, the US is unable to embargo Japan to the extent it did in OTL. This means the Japanese wouldn't have wanted Indonesia anywhere near as badly, so they leave it alone, however Indochina at a minimum was fair game after the fall of France, and Malaysia had rubber and a third of the worlds proven tin at the time. The US would still have joined the war against the Nazis, by 1940, polls showed 60% or more of Americans were in favor of war. In the 1940 election, Democrats picked up seats in Congress and FDR won one of the biggest landslides ever. So, since Japan still takes some of the European colonies in Asia, after the European axis powers are defeated, Japan is forced to give them back in a war, but without pearl harbor the war against them isn't fought til the end, so the allies don't fight them out of China. However since China is such an honor based society and the Japanese rule in China was anything but honorable and China had such a larger population than Japan, the Japanese would have a very, VERY hard time holding on to much of China (with big revolts being expensive to put down and being quite frequent I might add), after being kicked out of Europe they'd be too exhausted to hold on to much of it, so they'd likely hold on to Manchuria and go on to conquer inner Mongolia since this region of China is barely majority-Han Chinese. Due to Japan not being so weakened by the US fighting them out of the pacific etc. Russia never takes Manchuria, which means the Chinese civil war is probably the first proxy war of the cold war. Then after Japan consolidates it's power on the rest of China it becomes a 3rd superpower in a 3-way cold war. 

1. The annexation of Hawaii is as tied up in the American Sugar Interests as Cuba was in 1898. Read the Spanish American War thread lordrael created to understand why Hawaii was seized and WHY this was inevitable.
2. Oil drove the wars of the 20th Century. See MAP.




Why would Japan not try for the oil?

3. The Japanese would still have to deal with a US intensely interested in China. And if not Pearl Harbor, then it would have been San Diego. 
4. The rest of the conjecture is not congruent with economic or geographic reality. The China of the 1940s was more like India of the same period. The British were able to hold India until a national identity based on an Indian national liberation political movement emerged. Japan HELD onto eastern China until the Russians defeated them in Manchuria and the Americans bombed and blockaded them into submission.  

 

[miletus12]

Sept 8, 2022 23:01:29 GMT stevep said:

Of course if Hawaii wasn't available - most likely option is that the UK established a protectorate before the US planters can gain such power.

They tried, Steve. They muffed it.

[gillan1220]

I remember someone proposed a similar scenario on Alternate History Online. Basically, this butterflies away the U.S. taking Guam and the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. The Pacific Fleet would remain in San Diego or up in Bremerton, Washington. The butterflies would have already been felt since there would be no Filipino-American War. The Philippines under Emilio Aguinaldo will be a pro-Japanese republic as with OTL, since Aguinaldo sought help from Japan to fight both the Spanish and the Americans.

Assuming Japan still goes south on December 7/8, 1941, the target would have been Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies. For all we know, the pro-Japanese Philippines would have already allowed the Japanese to have bases in the country.

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 18:05:08 GMT gillan1220 said:

I remember someone proposed a similar scenario on Alternate History Online. Basically, this butterflies away the U.S. taking Guam and the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. The Pacific Fleet would remain in San Diego or up in Bremerton, Washington. The butterflies would have already been felt since there would be no Filipino-American War. The Philippines under Emilio Aguinaldo will be a pro-Japanese republic as with OTL, since Aguinaldo sought help from Japan to fight both the Spanish and the Americans.

Assuming Japan still goes south on December 7/8, 1941, the target would have been Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies. For all we know, the pro-Japanese Philippines would have already allowed the Japanese to have bases in the country.

I have decidedly mixed feelings about Aguinaldo. I think the Filipino Revolution might have been much better off if a lot clunkier with Bonifacio. 

[gillan1220]

Sept 12, 2022 18:37:22 GMT miletus12 said:

Sept 12, 2022 18:05:08 GMT gillan1220 said:

I remember someone proposed a similar scenario on Alternate History Online. Basically, this butterflies away the U.S. taking Guam and the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. The Pacific Fleet would remain in San Diego or up in Bremerton, Washington. The butterflies would have already been felt since there would be no Filipino-American War. The Philippines under Emilio Aguinaldo will be a pro-Japanese republic as with OTL, since Aguinaldo sought help from Japan to fight both the Spanish and the Americans.

Assuming Japan still goes south on December 7/8, 1941, the target would have been Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies. For all we know, the pro-Japanese Philippines would have already allowed the Japanese to have bases in the country.

I have decidedly mixed feelings about Aguinaldo. I think the Filipino Revolution might have been much better off if a lot clunkier with Bonifacio. 

Aguinaldo is a controversial figure even in modern-day Philippines. People see him as a dictator then finally a Japanese collaborator by WWII. Aguinaldo was known to remove his rivals by force, which included Antonio Luna, Apolinario Mabini, and Andres Bonifacio.

He lived a long life before dying in 1964, where he much saw the developments and events of the 20th century. 

[justiniano]

Sept 12, 2022 18:05:08 GMT gillan1220 said:

I remember someone proposed a similar scenario on Alternate History Online

the facebook group?

[miletus12]

Sept 11, 2022 15:59:02 GMT michelvan said:

The Idea is intriguing
but rase a question, who own Hawaii ?

you see Hawaii is perfect place for Military Harbor to controls the Pacific !
1848 Hawaii almost became British thanks Lord George Paulette overreaction to a "rumor"
but already then the USA had interest on Hawaii because it location and resources and intervene.
(and the protection of US citizen who form the rich plantation owners on Hawaii)

You need a POD around 1778 were British or the French get Hawaii and keep the USA out the Island
in that case Japan bomb in 1941 a British or French Harbor of Hawaii

or not ?
The USA will find and build a Military Harbor in Pacific,
On island Tutuila of American Samoa, it become a strategically important island for US military !
and additional target for Imperial Japanese Navy
but with attack on British or french Pearl Harbor in 1941
the US Navy is warned and will be Prepared and Japanese Raid on Pago Pago harbor could end as battle of Midway...

source:

I think we go after the Mandates and the Solomons and other Spanish possessions peripheral to the Philippine Archipelago, including the Mariana Islands. Then we have an interesting "problem". It would be the USN at Yap, Rabaul and Truk. What will the Japanese do? 

More importantly, what will the British do? The Americans and the Dutch will have a keen joint interest to limit the British. And that combo in that region of the world could do it. Who knows, the French might just join the combine as well.  
   

[miletus12]

Sept 12, 2022 18:45:11 GMT gillan1220 said:

He lived a long life before dying in 1964, where he much saw the developments and events of the 20th century

To be honest, I do not see much difference between Aguinaldo and maybe Marcos. He, Emilio, was willing to stooge for whoever paid him the most or held a gun to his head. He set a rotten precedent by abandoning teleological principles and accepting bribes from Fernando Primo de Rivera. The Pact of Biak-na-Bato sure seems from my point of view to be a betrayal of the Filipino people. At least when the Americans jailed Aguinaldo, they did not bribe him (I think) to behave when he was finally paroled. I still think the Filipino civil government should have been built up without Aguinaldo.