The case of a Non-Nato country intervening in NATO members' disputes.

[justiniano]

What would have happened if a non-NATO country intervened in a war between NATO countries during the cold war? I know I'm supposed to say what I think would have happened and not just ask a question, but I have no Idea, so I'll try to give as precise of an example as I can. Since Algeria takes the Greek side in the case of Cyprus, if Algeria was powerful enough to the point where it felt confident it could intervene on the side of the Greeks what would happen to Algeria? Would all of NATO gang up on them? Would the rest of NATO ignore it? Is the Warsaw pact the actual elephant in the room? Was there ever a time something like this happened in history?

[simon darkshade]

No non-NATO state was strong enough, or had a sufficient interest. I know Algeria was but an example, but there is no way in heck they were strong enough or independently capable enough.

It wasn’t just NATO and the WP on each side, but other countries were in their respective blocs.

[stevep]

Oct 17, 2022 19:19:33 GMT justiniano said:

What would have happened if a non-NATO country intervened in a war between NATO countries during the cold war? I know I'm supposed to say what I think would have happened and not just ask a question, but I have no Idea, so I'll try to give as precise of an example as I can. Since Algeria takes the Greek side in the case of Cyprus, if Algeria was powerful enough to the point where it felt confident it could intervene on the side of the Greeks what would happen to Algeria? Would all of NATO gang up on them? Would the rest of NATO ignore it? Is the Warsaw pact the actual elephant in the room? Was there ever a time something like this happened in history?

  Good question.  As Simon says there was no non-NATO nation powerful enough - with probably one exception but I suspect Israel would be more inclined to support Turkey at that date than Greece.  I think that's the only clash between NATO nations that has come close to shooting between the two.

  I think what NATO would do would depend on the circumstances but unless it was likely to mean one of its members being heavily defeated or possibly leaving the organization I suspect that the primary aim would be to minimise the conflict and try and mediate between the two sides.

[justiniano]

Oct 18, 2022 5:52:50 GMT simon darkshade said:

I know Algeria was but an example, but there is no way in heck they were strong enough or independently capable enough.

ok, what if Algeria had the population of Argentina (as in Argentina's population at the time) and it's economy (on a per capita scale) was good enough that as it improved or worsened it would end up (in 2019) slightly better off than Belarus

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 2:36:40 GMT justiniano said:

Oct 18, 2022 5:52:50 GMT simon darkshade said:

I know Algeria was but an example, but there is no way in heck they were strong enough or independently capable enough.

ok, what if Algeria had the population of Argentina (as in Argentina's population at the time) and it's economy (on a per capita scale) was good enough that as it improved or worsened it would end up (in 2019) slightly better off than Belarus

What year are we speaking of because you are trying to change a lot in order to fit Algeria in the role you want it to play.

[justiniano]

Oct 20, 2022 2:48:20 GMT lordroel said:

What year are we speaking of

1974

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 2:50:34 GMT justiniano said:

Oct 20, 2022 2:48:20 GMT lordroel said:

What year are we speaking of

1974

You do not that its is 12 years after the end of the Algerian War, with a population like that in 1974, there war would be bloodier, longer ore did not even happen at all, so many butterflies that could have taken effect all due the pole shifting you made in your post.

[justiniano]

Oct 20, 2022 2:53:56 GMT lordroel said:

there war would be bloodier, longer ore did not even happen at all

R u talking about the war between greece & tuekey over cyprus or the Algerian war for independence?

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 2:57:44 GMT justiniano said:

Oct 20, 2022 2:53:56 GMT lordroel said:

there war would be bloodier, longer ore did not even happen at all

R u talking about the war between greece & tuekey over cyprus or the Algerian war for independence?

I am talking about Algeria, you are trying to make it more powerful in order to make it fit in your first post of this thread.

[simon darkshade]

When we are playing around with WIs that change the nature of a state (above and beyond the original WI), we get trapped in a ‘drift trap’, where the scenario is continually changed to achieve an outcome. A richer, bigger Algeria is still freeping Algeria in 1974 - not a medium power, nor with interests beyond its immediate neighbours.

If we go too far down the WI rabbit hole, we lose track of connection to reality. If someone’s uncle was female, they’d be their aunt.

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 3:41:00 GMT simon darkshade said:

When we are playing around with WIs that change the nature of a state (above and beyond the original WI), we get trapped in a ‘drift trap’, where the scenario is continually changed to achieve an outcome. A richer, bigger Algeria is still freeping Algeria in 1974 - not a medium power, nor with interests beyond its immediate neighbours.

If we go too far down the WI rabbit hole, we lose track of connection to reality. If someone’s uncle was female, they’d be their aunt.

That is what i tried to say, i think that he shifted the goal post in order to fit in Algeria in the scenario without thinking by doing that he created huge butterflies for the country and its history itself.

[justiniano]

Oct 20, 2022 3:46:57 GMT lordroel said:

shifted the goal post in order to fit in Algeria in the scenario without thinking by doing that he created huge butterflies for the country and its history itself.

Ok, what are some butterflies of Algeria having a larger population and being wealthier since the late 1960s?

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 14:55:24 GMT justiniano said:

Oct 20, 2022 3:46:57 GMT lordroel said:

shifted the goal post in order to fit in Algeria in the scenario without thinking by doing that he created huge butterflies for the country and its history itself.

Ok, what are some butterflies of Algeria having a larger population and being wealthier since the late 1960s?

Where to start, not being under French control, but having that, you open a box of butterflies that is very Hugh.

[justiniano]

Oct 20, 2022 14:57:53 GMT lordroel said:

Where to start, not being under French control

Algeria gained independence in 1962. Anyway, I was thinking more along the lines of it remaining a part of france for longer(since france is a 1st world country and algeria is 3rd world)

[lordroel]

Oct 20, 2022 15:02:44 GMT justiniano said:

Oct 20, 2022 14:57:53 GMT lordroel said:

Where to start, not being under French control

Algeria gained independence in 1962. Anyway, I was thinking more along the lines of it remaining a part of france for longer(since france is a 1st world country and algeria is 3rd world)

Then this entire thread has no point, Algeria being part of France means Paris is the one that sets the rule of intervening in NATO members' disputes.