Iraq from September 1990 to 1970

[Otto Kretschmer]

Iraq now has Kuwait and it moves to a time when it's army is close to the most modern in the world.

What is the best course of action for Saddam if he wants to maximize his influence?

Whom to attack? Whom to ally himself with?

Attacking Saudi Arabia and then UAE and Qatsr would give him control over majority of world's oil, something not even Hitler could hope for. And once he controls KSA, he could not be easily dislodged.

[575]

Iraq have an enemy across Shatt al Arab but this time it is the Shah of Iran. Not the Armed Forces of 1978 but at least some 161,000 troops, 500 M-47/48/60 MBTs, 115 F-5A/B, 32 F-4D, 70 F-86 and 75 F-84. Iran have just shiftet its forcus from the Soviet border in the north to Iraq.
The Persian Gulf is still under British protection though Britain have announced it is going to withdraw next year.
The US is going to broker talks to end the War of Attrition between Israel and Egypt - the latter supported by the Soviet Union.

Iraq may have the most modern Army in the World but it have lost its backers. Even if the Iranian Army was kept on a short leash by the Shah it was a capable Force during the Iraq-Iran War and it is about to build up its forces with huge orders in US and Britain.
Iran and Israel have a kind of undeclared alliance remember.

Saddam will have to sit out 1970 to avoid crossing swords with the British and US in the Gulf. Going against the Middle East oil will make Western Europe his enemy.

The T-72 MBT is still in development so no spareparts. Nor for the Chieftains, M-60 or M-47s. His tank units will have to rely on T-54/55/62 + T-59/69. So is the Mil Mi-24, SA-342 Gazelle and other western helo's.
Even if Saddam still have 5,500 MBTs he still have to pay for them as the Soviets wasn't handing him gifts. Which also concern the Tu-16 Badger, Tu-22 Blinder, MiG-23 isn't in production yet, Su-20/25, MiG-25 and Mirage's.
Not even talking of Missiles.

[stevep]

  As pointed out Iraq has occupied Kuwait. This is going to be an issue for the neighbouring states and also for the wider world as it threatens international agreements on no border changes. Even apart from a totally different Iraq suddenly appearing and occupying its southern neighbour.  Wonder what will happen as reports of the world it came from leak out to the 1970 world.  More 'recent' stuff like Nixon's criminality and the defeat coming in Vietnam, then the Soviet's disaster in Afghanistan and collapse of their empire.  News of technological developments.  China's reforms after Mao's death - which the old thug is unlikely to take kindly.  A hell of a lot of changes.

  The Chieftain is already in existence and service in 1970 so not sure why 575 mentions that? Plus I wasn't aware of Iraq having any, although they were sold to Iran, possibly not by this time. - Ah checking I see Kuwait had a number, some of which fought the invasion then escaped to the south while others may have been captured by the Iraqis. 

  The key factors could be that the cold war is still very active and the US is deep in the war in Vietnam.  Under those circumstances there is unlikely to be the OTL broad coalition to throw Saddam out of Kuwait.  [Come to think of it this is before OPEC became a power in 1973 and the Yom Kippur War, which will also affect a number of issues].  The issue would be whether the western powers allied to Iran and some of the Arab nations now threatened by this new aggressive Iraq seek to throw Saddam back?  If so how well do they do with less technology and what do the Soviets do?

[Otto Kretschmer]

IMO it's Saddam who may try to expand even further using his military advantage. KSA is almost entirely defenceless so are other Gulf Arab nations.

[stevep]

Mar 4, 2023 14:41:13 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

IMO it's Saddam who may try to expand even further using his military advantage. KSA is almost entirely defenceless so are other Gulf Arab nations.

  Once he realises his position possibly.  That was a threat I was fearing in 1990 OTL before the west got forces there.  However that changes western intervention from a probability to pretty much a certainty.  Also while 20 years behind him technologically Imperial Iran is a formidable potential threat to his flank that could be reinforced by western powers.  Given the importance of the region to the world economy if he did look like succeeding Baghdad could suffer a nuke in this scenario as well.

[Otto Kretschmer]

What is the stance of Turkey?

[575]

Mar 5, 2023 17:35:14 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What is the stance of Turkey?

Allways wanted Mosul..

So if Iraq goes for the Gulf States Britain is in as it still protects a number of these (see my first post) and if the right number is then Turkey may go for Mosul. Though Turkey is in a trouble political state which prompted an Armed Forces Military Memorandum 1971 - Turk Army? Look to wiki 1968: three Armies, 13 Infantry 1 Armoured Divisions (M-47/48), 4 Armoured Brigades (M-47), 2 Arm. Cavalry Regiments, 2 Mech. Infantry Brigades, 2 Para Battalions - total 425,000 troops, reserves 450,000. Darn Airforce info is difficult to find.

USAF in Turkey and Nukes.