AHC: Anti-Soviet "crusade" instead of OTL's WW2

[Max Sinister]

This is some PoD I've pondered, and which doesn't seem to have happened that often in AltHist. Only example I can name from the top of my head would be the Gernsback TL from Gurps Alternate Earths.

Anyway, it'd be about a fight of the western countries against the SU. Of course, for this purpose, Germany could not be under the Nazis - although an authoritarian Reichswehr government might be possible.

Germany, Poland, Finland, Romania, Turkey and Japan would be the countries most involved in a fight.

Has this been done in AH?

How probable is this? Who would win? How'd they divide the booty?

Consider that Operation Pike (or sth. similar) might happen.

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2023 12:12:36 GMT Max Sinister said:

This is some PoD I've pondered, and which doesn't seem to have happened that often in AltHist. Only example I can name from the top of my head would be the Gernsback TL from Gurps Alternate Earths.

Anyway, it'd be about a fight of the western countries against the SU. Of course, for this purpose, Germany could not be under the Nazis - although an authoritarian Reichswehr government might be possible.

Germany, Poland, Finland, Romania, Turkey and Japan would be the countries most involved in a fight.

Has this been done in AH?

How probable is this? Who would win? How'd they divide the booty?

Consider that Operation Pike (or sth. similar) might happen.

Well we need the Soviet Union to be more aggressive, maybe they try a second round in getting Poland in the early 1930s.

[575]

Done it a couple of times in TL though only in response to a Soviet attack.

[575]

Of course You could have an Authoritarian Germany of kinds but I guess that would be following a German-Polish War.
Perhaps atl Spanish Civil War with heavy Soviet involvement could trigger such though the experience of Great War is rather recent in time. If such however added to something happening in Eastern Europe - suppose the Soviets doesn't botch their economy too badly and wants to export Revolution..

[Max Sinister]

Apr 1, 2023 12:19:40 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 1, 2023 12:12:36 GMT Max Sinister said:

This is some PoD I've pondered, and which doesn't seem to have happened that often in AltHist. Only example I can name from the top of my head would be the Gernsback TL from Gurps Alternate Earths.

Anyway, it'd be about a fight of the western countries against the SU. Of course, for this purpose, Germany could not be under the Nazis - although an authoritarian Reichswehr government might be possible.

Germany, Poland, Finland, Romania, Turkey and Japan would be the countries most involved in a fight.

Has this been done in AH?

How probable is this? Who would win? How'd they divide the booty?

Consider that Operation Pike (or sth. similar) might happen.

Well we need the Soviet Union to be more aggressive, maybe they try a second round in getting Poland in the early 1930s.

It's the question... if the Tukhachevsky affair happened in a similar way, that's the worst time for them to become aggressive. And Stalin was a paranoid bastard, hence too careful to start a war he can't win. Hence, the Nazis actually did him a favor when they started a war, so he could be... not exactly the good guy, but the guy who at least isn't as bad as the "führer".

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2023 13:04:17 GMT Max Sinister said:

Apr 1, 2023 12:19:40 GMT lordroel said:

Well we need the Soviet Union to be more aggressive, maybe they try a second round in getting Poland in the early 1930s.

It's the question... if the Tukhachevsky affair happened in a similar way, that's the worst time for them to become aggressive. And Stalin was a paranoid bastard, hence too careful to start a war he can't win. Hence, the Nazis actually did him a favor when they started a war, so he could be... not exactly the good guy, but the guy who at least isn't as bad as the "führer".

Every time i learn something, never heard of the Case of the Trotskyist Anti-Soviet Military Organizationore what you call the Tukhachevsky affair until you posted it.

[Max Sinister]

Yes, it's an interesting story, no kidding... the Sicherheitsdienst under Schellenberg got some shady documents from a double agent and thought it'd be a good idea if the Red Army leadership was gutted. So they notified the SU about it. However, they were just played by the Stalinists, so Stalin had a reason to remove Tukhachevsky and others just for the hell of it. And a good number of high-ranking party members as well. (The story goes that during a secret vote, about 200 had voted against him, so he couldn't identify them - and to be on the safe side, the paranoid bastard decided to kill all of them.)

And yeah, he even accused Tukhachevsky and others that they were steered by Trotsky who had made an alliance with Nazi Germany (yes, despite Trotsky being Jewish) and Imperial Japan, being willing to cede Ukraine to Germany and the Far East to Japan. Forcing them by torture to admit it in the show trials and everything.

(I researched a bit about admiral Canaris, so I found out the one or other thing.)

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2023 14:04:17 GMT Max Sinister said:

Yes, it's an interesting story, no kidding... the Sicherheitsdienst under Schellenberg got some shady documents from a double agent and thought it'd be a good idea if the Red Army leadership was gutted. So they notified the SU about it. However, they were just played by the Stalinists, so Stalin had a reason to remove Tukhachevsky and others just for the hell of it. And a good number of high-ranking party members as well. (The story goes that during a secret vote, about 200 had voted against him, so he couldn't identify them - and to be on the safe side, the paranoid bastard decided to kill all of them.)

And yeah, he even accused Tukhachevsky and others that they were steered by Trotsky who had made an alliance with Nazi Germany (yes, despite Trotsky being Jewish) and Imperial Japan, being willing to cede Ukraine to Germany and the Far East to Japan. Forcing them by torture to admit it in the show trials and everything.

(I researched a bit about admiral Canaris, so I found out the one or other thing.)

What about, Stalin decides to go for Round Two in invading Poland somewhere between 1930 and 1935, to make sure that no other country gets involved he has Communist uprising take place in places like Germany and Romania but which of course will drag those countries into the war on the side of Poland.

[Max Sinister]

Apr 1, 2023 14:06:32 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 1, 2023 14:04:17 GMT Max Sinister said:

Yes, it's an interesting story, no kidding... the Sicherheitsdienst under Schellenberg got some shady documents from a double agent and thought it'd be a good idea if the Red Army leadership was gutted. So they notified the SU about it. However, they were just played by the Stalinists, so Stalin had a reason to remove Tukhachevsky and others just for the hell of it. And a good number of high-ranking party members as well. (The story goes that during a secret vote, about 200 had voted against him, so he couldn't identify them - and to be on the safe side, the paranoid bastard decided to kill all of them.)

And yeah, he even accused Tukhachevsky and others that they were steered by Trotsky who had made an alliance with Nazi Germany (yes, despite Trotsky being Jewish) and Imperial Japan, being willing to cede Ukraine to Germany and the Far East to Japan. Forcing them by torture to admit it in the show trials and everything.

(I researched a bit about admiral Canaris, so I found out the one or other thing.)

What about, Stalin decides to go for Round Two in invading Poland somewhere between 1930 and 1935, to make sure that no other country gets involved he has Communist uprising take place in places like Germany and Romania but which of course will drag those countries into the war on the side of Poland.

1930-35? Then we'd also have to decide which regime is in charge in Germany. Because much will depend on this.

It's tricky. As long as the rest of Eurasia isn't bled dry by fighting, Stalin will stay on the defense, but then he won't look threatening enough. If millions of dead people in Holodomor and Gulags are no reason for an anti-Soviet crusade IOTL, neither will this be the case in TTL.

Maybe like this: The Wehrmacht putsches successfully against Hitler in 1938/39 and reveals: The Nazis have spent so much money on armament that Germany is practically broke. So to avoid chaos, they suggest to make an alliance and invade the Soviet Union.

Best I can think of.

[stevep]

Apr 1, 2023 15:50:32 GMT Max Sinister said:

Apr 1, 2023 14:06:32 GMT lordroel said:

What about, Stalin decides to go for Round Two in invading Poland somewhere between 1930 and 1935, to make sure that no other country gets involved he has Communist uprising take place in places like Germany and Romania but which of course will drag those countries into the war on the side of Poland.

1930-35? Then we'd also have to decide which regime is in charge in Germany. Because much will depend on this.

It's tricky. As long as the rest of Eurasia isn't bled dry by fighting, Stalin will stay on the defense, but then he won't look threatening enough. If millions of dead people in Holodomor and Gulags are no reason for an anti-Soviet crusade IOTL, neither will this be the case in TTL.

Maybe like this: The Wehrmacht putsches successfully against Hitler in 1938/39 and reveals: The Nazis have spent so much money on armament that Germany is practically broke. So to avoid chaos, they suggest to make an alliance and invade the Soviet Union.

Best I can think of.

  Given how much many of its neighbours mistrusted Germany, and changing Nazi Germany for a right wing military lead coup wouldn't change that significantly I think that they would be happier to see Germany go broke rather than aid it in an attack on the Soviets.  At least this way they know Germany is going to have to drastically cut its military spending which reduces the greatest threat to them.  Also given how much pacifism and fear of another great war - which are not identical things - are still present they would see such a suggestion as the height of insanity.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Apr 1, 2023 14:04:17 GMT Max Sinister said:

Yes, it's an interesting story, no kidding... the Sicherheitsdienst under Schellenberg got some shady documents from a double agent and thought it'd be a good idea if the Red Army leadership was gutted. So they notified the SU about it. However, they were just played by the Stalinists, so Stalin had a reason to remove Tukhachevsky and others just for the hell of it. And a good number of high-ranking party members as well. (The story goes that during a secret vote, about 200 had voted against him, so he couldn't identify them - and to be on the safe side, the paranoid bastard decided to kill all of them.)

And yeah, he even accused Tukhachevsky and others that they were steered by Trotsky who had made an alliance with Nazi Germany (yes, despite Trotsky being Jewish) and Imperial Japan, being willing to cede Ukraine to Germany and the Far East to Japan. Forcing them by torture to admit it in the show trials and everything.

(I researched a bit about admiral Canaris, so I found out the one or other thing.)

Nikolai Skoblin was that double agent posing as a White Russian émigré figure, right?

[michelvan]

The AH of Free Republic of Outermeuse feature similar scenario.

Here USSR and People Republic of France start Second Great War and try to invade the Great German Reich.
This failed for various reason and both face alliance of Europan states:
Great German Reich, Belgium, Netherlands, Swiss!, Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Great Britain
This join later Ukraine and baltic, the USA and Kuomintang China (Germany fought on US side against Japan )

While France was fast and easy victory, Soviet union was more difficult to fight,
Soviet Dictatorship trow everything into Battle were Allies face ratio one soldier against Four Soviets !
This change in advantage for Allies as Kuomintang China invade soviet Mongolia and reach Lake Baikal
Follow by Allies conquest of Baku and soviets oil reserve there

In the end the Soviet were defeated by new weapon the German developed: the Atomic Bomb drop on Moscow and Novosibirsk

[stevep]

   Well the other option is that Trotsky or another true believer rather than Stalin wins the power struggle after Lenin's death and goes for world revolution rather than 'socialism in one nation'. Of course this means that the clash is likely to happen in the late 20's or early 30's with a markedly weaker USSR.  Possibly, assuming as is likely the great depression still occurs and he sees it as the sign for the impending collapse of capitalism?  It might attract some attention/support in the western world with massed unemployment and poverty.  Not sure what would happen in a German in 1932 sort of conditions with the Red Army trying to advance through Poland or even how much civil unrest there would be in France and Britain.  Italy is probably already under Mussolini and most of the eastern nations, with conservative/reactionary monarchies and dominant elites are going to oppose the Reds with determination.  Japan is likely to move to full autocracy and could end up fighting in Siberia rather than invading China, although their still likely to want a clear control of Manchuria as a base.

[Max Sinister]

TheRomanSlayer : Indeed, it was Skoblin.

@ michelvan: Oh, so that's what happens in your TL? Now that is some deceptive title (not a bad thing, it just makes your TL sound like it was about some microstate instead of world-changing events).

@ stevep: Trotsky indeed, that'd be a possibility. However, given how badly the Japanese did at Khalkin Gol, I wouldn't advise them to do it. Might still happen, if the western powers block them in the South, but give them an OK to take Siberia.

[stevep]

Apr 5, 2023 13:55:33 GMT Max Sinister said:

TheRomanSlayer : Indeed, it was Skoblin.

@ michelvan: Oh, so that's what happens in your TL? Now that is some deceptive title (not a bad thing, it just makes your TL sound like it was about some microstate instead of world-changing events).

@ stevep: Trotsky indeed, that'd be a possibility. However, given how badly the Japanese did at Khalkin Gol, I wouldn't advise them to do it. Might still happen, if the western powers block them in the South, but give them an OK to take Siberia.

  I have heard different reports of how Khalkin Gol actually went although that could be because of bias from the sources involved.  However a Trotsky USSR is likely to be more at Japanese type levels of technological development in terms of land combat.  Its still going to be a very difficult task for the Japanese to get much beyond the Amur river area however, unless with the different butterflies they have secured such lands prior to the USSR being formed, i.e. holding a lot of eastern Siberia instead of withdrawing from in ~1921-22.  Their not going to be marching on Moscow or even the Urals but it could be an extra factor that Trotsky would have to handle.