General war in Europe delayed at least a dozen years from 1914 - political evolution in Italy?

[stevep]

Jun 14, 2023 21:45:06 GMT michelvan said:

Jun 6, 2023 23:10:17 GMT Max Sinister said:

Then you should answer what exactly will prevent a big war. The Kriegsmarine is still becoming bigger, Russia's not too stable, neither are A-H and the Ottoman Empire...

It must not like this, we need a POD to delay WW1

what about this ?

Franz Joseph dies in 1903 (let say the Belgium King Leopold II poison him do issue how FJ ill-treated Leopold daughter married into AH)
Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of AH and fire the entire royal court and take capable persons he trust
Start modernisation of Army and Navy follow by Reforms in Austrian-Hungary

In 1907 Franz Ferdinand get chance to get deal with Nicolas II of Russia,
Defined their sphere of influence, deescalate situation in East Europe.
This let in 1908 to Detente between Britain, France, Austrian-Hungary and Russia is sign
and Form Power block against Germany and Italy that secure peace in Europe.

German Emperor Wilhelm II consider now FF as traitor.
but Germany need alternative Italy is weak, Ottomans Empire is dying.
and find a Ally on other side of World Japan enemy of Russia
So the Axis alliance was formed...

...1926
the situation in Europe is troublesome, every nation face social unrest.
like socialist movement demand reforms for Workers
or women demanding the right to vote
in Ottoman empire died Mehmed V, his successor Mehmed VI. consider unfit to rule, what let to civil war in Ottoman empire.
While Britain face war of independence with Irland.
Russia has Revolution that overthrow the authoritarian Tsar Nicolas II
Japan use this chaos to invade russia Sakhalin and Siberia This drag Germany and Italy into World War I.

  Some interesting ideas but a couple I'm uncertain about - assuming that FF is able to break with Germany and get that deal with Russia and that then the great powers - other than Italy - will agree a settlement which isolates Germany.  This after all ignores tensions between Britain and France/Russia and that France will be unhappy about continued German control of Alsace-Lorraine.

a)  Not sure that Japan would ally with Germany given the hostility resulting from Wilhelm's anti-Asian outbursts and previous actions and that it valued the alliance with Britain highly. 

b)  If there is violence related to Ireland then its likely to come in ~1914-15, whether with Home Rule installed and the rebellion being by the northern Unionists or with it failing and unrest from the Catholic majority.  - Either way the hard line fanatics from what later became SF are going to seek violence ass a way of preventing a stable solution but they could end up very isolated.  There could be a new round of unrest developing a decade later or possibly the main conflicts are resolved for the foreseeable future?

  Another point that's not mentioned is what's happening with the US?  Without WWI the rise of the US to economic domination will be slowed but unless something dramatic happens its going to become easily the most powerful industrial nation in the world.  Does it still go for a mammoth naval programme in 1916, prompting a Japanese response as OTL and probably a British one.  How does an isolated Germany respond in such a situation?  Is Tirpitz dismissed because without allies Germany needs to end the naval challenge to Britain or does he somehow stay in power and Germany continues to put major effort into a battleship race?

[lukedalton]

Jun 12, 2023 2:47:38 GMT raharris1973 said:

Jun 11, 2023 22:03:27 GMT lukedalton said:

4) Some modification of the electoral law to increase the franchise will happen and the next battle will be the vote for the women.

How would the battle for women's suffrage go, and what parties would be for/against. Would it line up the way a late 20th century Anglosphere person would expect, the leftier parties in favor, the more conservative against? Or would it line up like in some Spanish speaking countries, with the most vehement opponents of female suffrage being anticlerical liberals (and possibly socialists) who assume the women's vote is all locked in for Catholic oriented parties?

Jun 11, 2023 22:03:27 GMT lukedalton said:

4)
5) Benny will try to form his own party probably but without the war i will not see him succeeded, honestly he will probably in the end try to enter in the socialist hardliner party or in the ANI (Associazione Nazionalistica Italiana) that will take the role of the nationalistic populistic party

How big a deal could the ANI party become?

Jun 11, 2023 22:03:27 GMT lukedalton said:

- Franz Ferdinand reform: he knows that reform were necessary but not only many of his idea was unpratical but it was generally disliked and little diplomatic, so A-h can become a powderkeg

If this gets messy, could Italy, Serbia, and Romania, either individually or together, be tempted to intervene in favor of co-nationals or their claims? Or would they only dare cross that line if assured of either a) Russian support for their intervention into Austria-Hungary, or b) German non-intervention/neutralization in the situation?

 In general women will probably believed to vote for the church/conservative but it will be a lot less clear cut due to the women presence in the early  socialist struggles; frankly it's probable that this battle will divide the various party internally with factions that promote the women vote and other that don't want it and one must also consider the fact that without Benny politics the presence of the women in the workforce will continue to increase but slowly (male workers don't want competion and the general conservative culture is against the woman that work).
 
The ANI can grow (it got 21 seats in the 1921 election in the National Bloc with the Liberals) but without a very dedicated and charismatic leaderships and some pretty much epocal event, will be always an outlier party with the Popolari and Socialisti on top and only the Communist and Liberals being on their range, said that they can become very important in a coalition government.

If things become messy in A-H it can be the lit that can ignite the continent, it's very probable that an unofficialia ad hoc alliance or at least coordination/support between Bucharest, Belgrado and Rome will happen but the big four (UK; Germany, France and Russia) will generally try to keep things controlled and will start a continental conference, unless the tension in general as so high that one party believe he had a good chance to win a conventional war and that things continue to develop this way this is his last change (in general Germany can see that without A-H they are surrounded )

[michelvan]

i forgot in this senario Austria-Hungary has effective and modernised Army Navy and ally with France, Britain and Russian
Against Germany and Itlay (and Japan)

Here Germany Italy fight multi front lines against enemies superior in strength/numbers.

[lukedalton]

Jun 15, 2023 20:41:17 GMT michelvan said:

i forgot in this senario Austria-Hungary has effective and modernised Army Navy and ally with France, Britain and Russian
Against Germany and Itlay (and Japan)

Here Germany Italy fight multi front lines against enemies superior in strength/numbers.

To have a modernizated A-H armed forces you basically need to overhaoul the entire state apparate and system as frankly it was more geared towards internal security and quick campaign/punitive expedition than to modern wars. Sure it resisted for 5 years but it was helped by the terrain (italian front) and his big ally, and even in that case it had not given that great perfomance (hell even during the Kerensky offensive aka the nadir of the Russian Army it was the austrian troops that give up the most)

Jun 15, 2023 18:04:44 GMT stevep said:

  Some interesting ideas but a couple I'm uncertain about - assuming that FF is able to break with Germany and get that deal with Russia and that then the great powers - other than Italy - will agree a settlement which isolates Germany.  This after all ignores tensions between Britain and France/Russia and that France will be unhappy about continued German control of Alsace-Lorraine.

a)  Not sure that Japan would ally with Germany given the hostility resulting from Wilhelm's anti-Asian outbursts and previous actions and that it valued the alliance with Britain highly. 

b)  If there is violence related to Ireland then its likely to come in ~1914-15, whether with Home Rule installed and the rebellion being by the northern Unionists or with it failing and unrest from the Catholic majority.  - Either way the hard line fanatics from what later became SF are going to seek violence ass a way of preventing a stable solution but they could end up very isolated.  There could be a new round of unrest developing a decade later or possibly the main conflicts are resolved for the foreseeable future?

  Another point that's not mentioned is what's happening with the US?  Without WWI the rise of the US to economic domination will be slowed but unless something dramatic happens its going to become easily the most powerful industrial nation in the world.  Does it still go for a mammoth naval programme in 1916, prompting a Japanese response as OTL and probably a British one.  How does an isolated Germany respond in such a situation?  Is Tirpitz dismissed because without allies Germany needs to end the naval challenge to Britain or does he somehow stay in power and Germany continues to put major effort into a battleship race?

Wilson cabinet contained enough pacifist that without any real reason to create this big navy, it will not happen; maybe the one elected after Woodrow will change idea and decide to create this big Navy