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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 6, 2023 0:55:19 GMT
What if WWI does not break out in the late summer of 1941, and no general European war breaks out in next dozen years, until at least 1926.
What is the likely political evolution and trajectory of the Kingdom of Italy over this time period?
Will its political order be marked largely by a stable small 'l' liberalism of alternating parties in parliament, in an actually fairly conservative system marked by male privilege, northern privilege, propertied privilege? Will Socialist unrest or disorder become a growing issue? Will any new, dynamic right-wing movements like Fascism emerge, in the absence of the Great War? Will the Church still remain hostile and aloof to the Italian monarchy and secular state, or will some concordat be reached?
In foreign policy, would Italy over these years openly break from the Triple Alliance, or perhaps contrarily recommit to it and increase hostility to France?
If Italy did take a turn toward radical nationalism, perhaps of a rightist variety like Fascism, might Italy support 'Black Hand' style terrorist campaigns by Italians and allied movements, perhaps of Serb and Romanian extremists, against the Austro-Hungarian enemy?
Obviously the general condition of overall peacetime Europe, the Mediterranean, and Italy's colonial territories will affect Italy's politics, society, and economy. Developments in America will be very important too. For example, if, in the absence of the Great War, America remains as open to permanent and temporary seasonal Italian migration through middle 1920s as southern Italians and Sicilians of 1914 had become accustomed to. Or, alternatively, if convergent to OTL, first the American literacy test and then other restrictions and eventually quotas drastically limit the ability to emigrate to the US - that would change circumstances for many Italians in a different way.
Your thoughts?
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 6, 2023 23:10:17 GMT
Then you should answer what exactly will prevent a big war. The Kriegsmarine is still becoming bigger, Russia's not too stable, neither are A-H and the Ottoman Empire...
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 7, 2023 1:40:32 GMT
Then you should answer what exactly will prevent a big war. ......exactly what happens? Dictate for potential discussants what every great power was doing at every moment from 1914-1918 instead of warring with each other? I've chosen to let participants let their imaginations roam free within a pretty big cage or long leash, in which the only rule is, 'no great power coalition war happened in Europe 1914-1926, you can outline what happened instead, and by the way here's what happened with Italy.' Let's put it this way, I'll give everyone a starting point - there is no Sarajevo assassination in June 1914 to start the particular Austro-Serb crisis that led to the war we knew in 1914. As for what kept happening to make Europe lucky enough to keep avoiding coalition war for several additional years, that's up to your imagination. The Kriegsmarine is still becoming bigger It is but the British naval lead is expanding Which theoretically could lead to a war of opportunism against Russia if it makes Russia look weak and an enemy power has something they want to take from it. But in most cases it will make Russia less prone to start wars. And unless the instability is hurting the overall economic growth and military rearmament, war now usually won't sound better than war later for St. Petersburg. Which in most cases, which make Austria-Hungary less likely to start wars, unless their instability is linked to assassinations sponsored by groups in foreign countries with designs on their territories (like the OTL Sarajevo incident) Or theoretically could lead to a war of opportunism against them if they have an internal civil war. Similar situation for these guys, although for the Ottomans, there really has been more precedent for other countries making war on them when they have internal revolts and disturbances (Greek rebellion, Lebanon intervention, Bosnia and Bulgarian revolts, the Cretan revolt - as of 1914, the Armenian situation was probably lined up to be next big excuse). Usually though the European powers developed a common policy or a policy that kept them away from war with each other, just in the nick of time, over the Ottoman succession, through conference that usually usually gave different powers and local rebels small pieces of what they wanted. The time it got most out of control and contagious was the Crimean War -maybe there could have been a 20th century equivalent of that with a different line-up of pro and anti Ottoman powers. |
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Jun 11, 2023 10:02:42 GMT
Let's put it this way, I'll give everyone a starting point - there is no Sarajevo assassination in June 1914 to start the particular Austro-Serb crisis that led to the war we knew in 1914. As for what kept happening to make Europe lucky enough to keep avoiding coalition war for several additional years, that's up to your imagination.... isn't this a wee bit too much of a question?
You're asking for developing a whole alternate timeline not only avoiding the even without said assassination NOT simply ending but rather further growing austrian-serbian anmity but also - explain the further development of the Dual_Monarchy into ... what? Trialism? habsburgian/danubian COnmfederation? super-authoritarian dictaotship rule of Franz Ferdinand?
- avoid the lurking conflict between Greece and the Ottoman Empire (no british dreadnought seizure)
- avoid the kurking conflict around Albania with another bulgarian-serbian-greek "menage-a-troit"
- avoid the lurking conflict between Bulgaria and the Romania regarding the Dobruscha
each of which would have easily involved the one or other Great-Big-Regionally mayor power with quite the same domino-effect as of OTL. But there are other global matters as well playing into this. - the economical development of the US of A (pls don't forget: before WW 1 they were a rathe laarge net debtor internationallywith another crisis just lurking) against the efforts of Britain to keep it as such and the German Realm just recognizing its growing economical muscles
- the japanese imperialsm ... which would have to wait for another (occasion) ... or would it 'invent some of its own' ... as it did in the thirties? ... would it turn against Germany? ... or again Russia? ... maybe causing another russo-japanese war for the Amur provinces? ... its war-time allies weren't very 'pleased' wiht its 21-demands ... might the lack of support by the UK led to a fall of japanese Foreign minister Kato? ... what might open another can of worms regarding east asia and the pacific
- the domestic situation developing in Russia as it should not be forgotten that the war interrupted a increasingly growing political strike-movement. ... another revolution as in 1905? ... another russo-japanese war to distract from?
and these ar only the first thoughts jkumping into my head by considering to invent a history for "a dozen yeasr" to avoid a Great War ... and I haven't even touched yet the Near East, the Middle East, India and Centra Asia
... or Italy and its 'role' for that
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Post by lukedalton on Jun 11, 2023 22:03:27 GMT
For Italy i see:
1) some type of agreement and rapproachment with the church like OTL, even before the war there were clearly sign that both side government and Church wanted end the situation, in fact we have seen the relaxing of the proibition of the catholic to partecipate at the political life of the nation; in OTL it was lifted officially in 1919 and brought the creation of the Partito Popolare Italiano (future Democrazia Cristiana) IMVHO more or less on the same time maybe even a little earlier can happen here without the war to dictate the political discourse.
2) the socialist will divide themselfs in two party one moderate and one for the hardliner, without the war and the russian revolution is very probable that the moderate one will be the strongest.
3) the liberal party will decrease of importance with the increase of the electorate franchise but will remain important still trying to controll the political life of Italy by allying himself alternatively with the moderate socialist or the catholic depending on the situation.
4) Some modification of the electoral law to increase the franchise will happen and the next battle will be the vote for the women.
5) Benny will try to form his own party probably but without the war i will not see him succeeded, honestly he will probably in the end try to enter in the socialist hardliner party or in the ANI (Associazione Nazionalistica Italiana) that will take the role of the nationalistic populistic party
6) the Triple is dead, everybody knows it, once the last treaty signed expire, Italy is out...it's very probable that the Ottoman Empire will take her place;this doesn't mean an alliance with France but more Italy acting as a wild card and looking for ad hoc alliance but honestly France will be always preferred to A-H,
7) No war will mean that the italian army will have time and resources to deal with the pacification of Libya, it will not be pretty (for the locals) and frankly by the end of the decades it will be over
8) I expect a mini 'great game' between Italy, Russia and A-H for influence in the Balkans and Albania in particular.
Naturally this is very generic because little particular exist as 12 years are almost an eternity in political terms and there were a lot of hot point:
- Franz Ferdinand reform: he knows that reform were necessary but not only many of his idea was unpratical but it was generally disliked and little diplomatic, so A-h can become a powderkeg
- the Irish Home Rule crisis: without the war this will be the prominent political event in the UK and honestly a civil war between catholic and protestant and between moderate and hardliner is very probable.
- Probably a war between the Ottoman and Greece
- Probably a third war in the Balkans
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 12, 2023 2:47:38 GMT
4) Some modification of the electoral law to increase the franchise will happen and the next battle will be the vote for the women. How would the battle for women's suffrage go, and what parties would be for/against. Would it line up the way a late 20th century Anglosphere person would expect, the leftier parties in favor, the more conservative against? Or would it line up like in some Spanish speaking countries, with the most vehement opponents of female suffrage being anticlerical liberals (and possibly socialists) who assume the women's vote is all locked in for Catholic oriented parties? 4) 5) Benny will try to form his own party probably but without the war i will not see him succeeded, honestly he will probably in the end try to enter in the socialist hardliner party or in the ANI (Associazione Nazionalistica Italiana) that will take the role of the nationalistic populistic party How big a deal could the ANI party become? - Franz Ferdinand reform: he knows that reform were necessary but not only many of his idea was unpratical but it was generally disliked and little diplomatic, so A-h can become a powderkeg If this gets messy, could Italy, Serbia, and Romania, either individually or together, be tempted to intervene in favor of co-nationals or their claims? Or would they only dare cross that line if assured of either a) Russian support for their intervention into Austria-Hungary, or b) German non-intervention/neutralization in the situation? |
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 12, 2023 5:29:55 GMT
Without butterflies, Franz Joseph will die in 1916, and even with, he probably won't live much longer. Maybe until 1918, to celebrate his 70 years of reigning (and Willy's 30 years at the same time)? And then, it's Franz Ferdinand in charge. Of course, turning A-H into the US of Greater Austria will make him unpopular, and he never was that popular to start with. I mean, when he was shot, few people in Austria were sad. (Contrast that with Rudolph.)
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Jun 14, 2023 21:45:06 GMT
Then you should answer what exactly will prevent a big war. The Kriegsmarine is still becoming bigger, Russia's not too stable, neither are A-H and the Ottoman Empire... It must not like this, we need a POD to delay WW1 what about this ? Franz Joseph dies in 1903 ( let say the Belgium King Leopold II poison him do issue how FJ ill-treated Leopold daughter married into AH) Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of AH and fire the entire royal court and take capable persons he trust Start modernisation of Army and Navy follow by Reforms in Austrian-Hungary In 1907 Franz Ferdinand get chance to get deal with Nicolas II of Russia, Defined their sphere of influence, deescalate situation in East Europe. This let in 1908 to Detente between Britain, France, Austrian-Hungary and Russia is sign and Form Power block against Germany and Italy that secure peace in Europe. German Emperor Wilhelm II consider now FF as traitor. but Germany need alternative Italy is weak, Ottomans Empire is dying. and find a Ally on other side of World Japan enemy of Russia So the Axis alliance was formed... ...1926 the situation in Europe is troublesome, every nation face social unrest. like socialist movement demand reforms for Workers or women demanding the right to vote in Ottoman empire died Mehmed V, his successor Mehmed VI. consider unfit to rule, what let to civil war in Ottoman empire. While Britain face war of independence with Irland. Russia has Revolution that overthrow the authoritarian Tsar Nicolas II Japan use this chaos to invade russia Sakhalin and Siberia This drag Germany and Italy into World War I. |
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miletus12
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To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 15, 2023 0:42:16 GMT
I've chosen to let participants let their imaginations roam free within a pretty big cage or long leash The trouble with no limits is that speculation runs soon into ASB territory. It is hard to to write "realistic" alternate outcomes unless initial start conditions are kind of defined to bumper-rail possible outcomes. Then you should answer what exactly will prevent a big war. The Kriegsmarine is still becoming bigger, Russia's not too stable, neither are A-H and the Ottoman Empire... It must not like this, we need a POD to delay WW1 what about this ? Franz Joseph dies in 1903 ( let say the Belgium King Leopold II poison him do issue how FJ ill-treated Leopold daughter married into AH) Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of AH and fire the entire royal court and take capable persons he trust Start modernisation of Army and Navy follow by Reforms in Austrian-Hungary In 1907 Franz Ferdinand get chance to get deal with Nicolas II of Russia, Defined their sphere of influence, deescalate situation in East Europe. This let in 1908 to Detente between Britain, France, Austrian-Hungary and Russia is sign and Form Power block against Germany and Italy that secure peace in Europe. German Emperor Wilhelm II consider now FF as traitor. but Germany need alternative Italy is weak, Ottomans Empire is dying. and find a Ally on other side of World Japan enemy of Russia So the Axis alliance was formed... ...1926 the situation in Europe is troublesome, every nation face social unrest. like socialist movement demand reforms for Workers or women demanding the right to vote in Ottoman empire died Mehmed V, his successor Mehmed VI. consider unfit to rule, what let to civil war in Ottoman empire. While Britain face war of independence with Irland. Russia has Revolution that overthrow the authoritarian Tsar Nicolas II Japan use this chaos to invade russia Sakhalin and Siberia This drag Germany and Italy into World War I. Like that. (^^^) That I can work with. For example; I can see Taft dying of a swallowed chicken bone, and Roosevelt trounces that expletive deleted, Wilson. Hiram Johnson succeeds Roosevelt and suddenly RUSSIA has an ally... |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 15, 2023 2:15:50 GMT
For Italy i see: 1) some type of agreement and rapproachment with the church like OTL, even before the war there were clearly sign that both side government and Church wanted end the situation, in fact we have seen the relaxing of the proibition of the catholic to partecipate at the political life of the nation; in OTL it was lifted officially in 1919 and brought the creation of the Partito Popolare Italiano (future Democrazia Cristiana) IMVHO more or less on the same time maybe even a little earlier can happen here without the war to dictate the political discourse. 2) the socialist will divide themselfs in two party one moderate and one for the hardliner, without the war and the russian revolution is very probable that the moderate one will be the strongest. 3) the liberal party will decrease of importance with the increase of the electorate franchise but will remain important still trying to controll the political life of Italy by allying himself alternatively with the moderate socialist or the catholic depending on the situation. 4) Some modification of the electoral law to increase the franchise will happen and the next battle will be the vote for the women. 5) Benny will try to form his own party probably but without the war i will not see him succeeded, honestly he will probably in the end try to enter in the socialist hardliner party or in the ANI (Associazione Nazionalistica Italiana) that will take the role of the nationalistic populistic party 6) the Triple is dead, everybody knows it, once the last treaty signed expire, Italy is out...it's very probable that the Ottoman Empire will take her place;this doesn't mean an alliance with France but more Italy acting as a wild card and looking for ad hoc alliance but honestly France will be always preferred to A-H, 7) No war will mean that the italian army will have time and resources to deal with the pacification of Libya, it will not be pretty (for the locals) and frankly by the end of the decades it will be over 8) I expect a mini 'great game' between Italy, Russia and A-H for influence in the Balkans and Albania in particular. Naturally this is very generic because little particular exist as 12 years are almost an eternity in political terms and there were a lot of hot point: - Franz Ferdinand reform: he knows that reform were necessary but not only many of his idea was unpratical but it was generally disliked and little diplomatic, so A-h can become a powderkeg - the Irish Home Rule crisis: without the war this will be the prominent political event in the UK and honestly a civil war between catholic and protestant and between moderate and hardliner is very probable. - Probably a war between the Ottoman and Greece - Probably a third war in the Balkans This! This, This, This. Shows it is possible to provide insightful, high-value responses, even with just the limited outlines I provided you already. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 15, 2023 2:19:46 GMT
Without butterflies, Franz Joseph will die in 1916, and even with, he probably won't live much longer. Maybe until 1918, to celebrate his 70 years of reigning (and Willy's 30 years at the same time)? And then, it's Franz Ferdinand in charge. Of course, turning A-H into the US of Greater Austria will make him unpopular, and he never was that popular to start with. I mean, when he was shot, few people in Austria were sad. (Contrast that with Rudolph.) Interesting - what do you think that (F-F's unpopularity and possible controversial decisions after 1916 or 1918) would all mean for Austro-Hungarian stability? And F-F would be no fan of conflict with Russia, but what would be the reaction of all the neighbors - Germany, Italy, Montenegro, Serbia, Romania...and Russia, to protracted instability in Austria-Hungary starting in 1916 or 1918? |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 15, 2023 2:25:43 GMT
The trouble with no limits is that speculation runs soon into ASB territory. It is hard to to write "realistic" alternate outcomes unless initial start conditions are kind of defined to bumper-rail possible outcomes. I provided initial start conditions and defined some bumper rails through 1926. I can quote exactly where I did it. But I won't, because I'm too lazy, and you or anyone else participating is also perfectly capable of identifying where I did it and operating within those defined parameters, instead of whining for....more parameters and hand-holding. Lukedalton did it. Max Sinister provided a fine, limited snapshot. |
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 15, 2023 2:44:02 GMT
The trouble with no limits is that speculation runs soon into ASB territory. It is hard to to write "realistic" alternate outcomes unless initial start conditions are kind of defined to bumper-rail possible outcomes. I provided initial start conditions and defined some bumper rails through 1926. I can quote exactly where I did it. But I won't, because I'm too lazy, and you or anyone else participating is also perfectly capable of identifying where I did it and operating within those defined parameters, instead of whining for....more parameters and hand-holding. Lukedalton did it. Max Sinister provided a fine, limited snapshot. I was not interested in the Italy as described, because that was not the Italy that was. What is the likely political evolution and trajectory of the Kingdom of Italy over this time period? I am not sure that the north-south split that dominated Italian politics from 1860 forward down to the present would be put into abeyance by anything less than a WWI. You will note that Mussolini started as a socialist? Most of his initial opposition, the southern Italian agrarian political parties coalitions, were the seeds of his future "fascist" black shirts? Without the Moose, you have The House of Savoy, the northern "socialists" (read communists), the Italian "Combines" who are really Zhaibatsu with a Tuscan accent. Then in the south you have the MOB, the Church and the Agrarians of what used to be the "Kingdom of the Two Sicilies". That remains. Utter chaos. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 15, 2023 4:10:02 GMT
Without butterflies, Franz Joseph will die in 1916, and even with, he probably won't live much longer. Maybe until 1918, to celebrate his 70 years of reigning (and Willy's 30 years at the same time)? And then, it's Franz Ferdinand in charge. Of course, turning A-H into the US of Greater Austria will make him unpopular, and he never was that popular to start with. I mean, when he was shot, few people in Austria were sad. (Contrast that with Rudolph.) Interesting - what do you think that (F-F's unpopularity and possible controversial decisions after 1916 or 1918) would all mean for Austro-Hungarian stability? And F-F would be no fan of conflict with Russia, but what would be the reaction of all the neighbors - Germany, Italy, Montenegro, Serbia, Romania...and Russia, to protracted instability in Austria-Hungary starting in 1916 or 1918? A-H was in a difficult situation. A very complicated bureaucracy, where you had to know the difference between "k.u.k." (imperial AND royal) and "k.k." (imperial-royal). Serious Business! It was hard to change anything in this mess, and especially so if you wanted a big reform as the USGA would be. Don't know much else, e.g. how hard it'd be for the emperor to change provinces' borders.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 15, 2023 10:44:25 GMT
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