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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 15, 2023 0:55:01 GMT
Yes, I happen to be a big fan of this concept.
Do you like to read TLs which use it? Do you use it in TLs yourself? Would you like to?
This thread shall be the official thread for this concept, because we don't have one yet, I checked.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 15, 2023 8:23:26 GMT
Yes, I happen to be a big fan of this concept.
Do you like to read TLs which use it? Do you use it in TLs yourself? Would you like to?
This thread shall be the official thread for this concept, because we don't have one yet, I checked.
Well to me if a TL ignores the butterfly effect - unless its based on an ASB using their powers to achieve a specific aim - then it can't really be taken seriously. Hate it when you have OTL characters turning up basically unchanged when the PoD was long before their birth.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 20, 2023 6:35:36 GMT
Do use the concept in my TL's - I've already marked so in the "Another Frederik VII" that the influence of Grundtvig will be notable upon Danish society with removal of the Dannevirke myth but it will also do on the count of Kings back in Vikingtimes. The ASB ISOT of Denmark to 1864 also have one now with the changed situation regarding the First International and the security situation of Thailand during second half to 1800's.
That much said I don't adhere to the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD but like to use it in a ripple effect - that Denmark arrives doesn't change everything in South America in an instant!
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 20, 2023 13:16:50 GMT
Yes, I happen to be a big fan of this concept.
Do you like to read TLs which use it? Do you use it in TLs yourself? Would you like to?
This thread shall be the official thread for this concept, because we don't have one yet, I checked.
Not a fan at all. The mathematics in physics is directly related to information theory and fractalism. While physicists think the concept is elegant as it explains localism and complexification quite well, for it appears as that function in nature, both as a physical and in its subset, biological system function, the counter-organizing principle of entropy tends to damp it down and smooth it out. |
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1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Jun 20, 2023 17:45:02 GMT
Yes, I happen to be a big fan of this concept. Do you like to read TLs which use it? Do you use it in TLs yourself? Would you like to? This thread shall be the official thread for this concept, because we don't have one yet, I checked. Well to me if a TL ignores the butterfly effect - unless its based on an ASB using their powers to achieve a specific aim - then it can't really be taken seriously. Hate it when you have OTL characters turning up basically unchanged when the PoD was long before their birth.
The butterfly effect has been used to measure weather models for some time. Inputting known data from a point in the past and running it to measure accuracy against the historic outcomes. When I received a minor in Marine Science, this was a topic, and showed that weather models cannot be fully trusted, especially in the longer term. Close is still incorrect. Nothing happens in a vacuum. My thoughts, |
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 12:22:43 GMT
Do use the concept in my TL's - I've already marked so in the "Another Frederik VII" that the influence of Grundtvig will be notable upon Danish society with removal of the Dannevirke myth but it will also do on the count of Kings back in Vikingtimes. The ASB ISOT of Denmark to 1864 also have one now with the changed situation regarding the First International and the security situation of Thailand during second half to 1800's. That much said I don't adhere to the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD but like to use it in a ripple effect - that Denmark arrives doesn't change everything in South America in an instant! I also think there'd be a ripple effect. Now the question is, how fast would it be? In the Chaos TL, I went so far to decide "Since the Americas are separated by an ocean, there will be no change at all until they'll be discovered". That's an exaggeration, of course.
OTOH, I also don't believe that everything would immediately change.
This leaves a lot of leeway, of course.
However, I'm quite sure that the conception of new people would change as soon as any change hits their parents. The genes stay the same, but siblings who have the same sex still can be very different. Hence: Change the ACW e.g., and you have removed Einstein, Hitler, Stalin etc. from history.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 24, 2023 12:28:23 GMT
Do use the concept in my TL's - I've already marked so in the "Another Frederik VII" that the influence of Grundtvig will be notable upon Danish society with removal of the Dannevirke myth but it will also do on the count of Kings back in Vikingtimes. The ASB ISOT of Denmark to 1864 also have one now with the changed situation regarding the First International and the security situation of Thailand during second half to 1800's. That much said I don't adhere to the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD but like to use it in a ripple effect - that Denmark arrives doesn't change everything in South America in an instant! I also think there'd be a ripple effect. Now the question is, how fast would it be? In the Chaos TL, I went so far to decide "Since the Americas are separated by an ocean, there will be no change at all until they'll be discovered". That's an exaggeration, of course.
OTOH, I also don't beleve that everything would immediately change.
This leaves a lot of leeway, of course.
However, I'm quite sure that the conception of new people would change as soon as any change hits their parents. The genes stay the same, but siblings who have the same sex still can be very different. Hence: Change the ACW e.g., and you have removed Einstein, Hitler, Stalin etc. from history.
I'm not sure that anyone believes that everything would change immediately. Even in the modern world with highly connected economies, let alone communications. Well unless the PoD is something like a nuclear exchange or an asteroid hit or something like that.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 12:37:02 GMT
Yes, I happen to be a big fan of this concept.
Do you like to read TLs which use it? Do you use it in TLs yourself? Would you like to?
This thread shall be the official thread for this concept, because we don't have one yet, I checked.
Not a fan at all. The mathematics in physics is directly related to information theory and fractalism. While physicists think the concept is elegant as it explains localism and complexification quite well, for it appears as that function in nature, both as a physical and in its subset, biological system function, the counter-organizing principle of entropy tends to damp it down and smooth it out. Law of the big numbers and such? Yes, that's something to be considered as well. But still... currently I'm thinking about airplane crash-related deaths in "How many Sixes". At the end of 1940, thanks to butterflies, as different people as Italo Balbo (good for the Axis), three Australian ministers (good for the Allies, or Menzies at least), and Helene de Portes (not entirely sure) have survived. Oh, and author Nathanael West too.
To "smooth things out", I should kill off several halfway prominent people in the same timespan. Haven't decided which ones.
Trotsky OTOH still dies in summer 1940, because the reasons (1. Stalin wants him dead 2. Stalin definitely has the means to send assassins) aren't changed by butterflies. Hell, even if Stalin had a heart attack, the surviving Stalinists still would want it to happen.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 12:39:51 GMT
I also think there'd be a ripple effect. Now the question is, how fast would it be? In the Chaos TL, I went so far to decide "Since the Americas are separated by an ocean, there will be no change at all until they'll be discovered". That's an exaggeration, of course.
OTOH, I also don't beleve that everything would immediately change.
This leaves a lot of leeway, of course.
However, I'm quite sure that the conception of new people would change as soon as any change hits their parents. The genes stay the same, but siblings who have the same sex still can be very different. Hence: Change the ACW e.g., and you have removed Einstein, Hitler, Stalin etc. from history.
I'm not sure that anyone believes that everything would change immediately. Even in the modern world with highly connected economies, let alone communications. Well unless the PoD is something like a nuclear exchange or an asteroid hit or something like that.
I couldn't name anyone who believes that from the top of my head, but 575 mentioned "the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD", so there must be some of them around.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 24, 2023 14:23:03 GMT
Do use the concept in my TL's - I've already marked so in the "Another Frederik VII" that the influence of Grundtvig will be notable upon Danish society with removal of the Dannevirke myth but it will also do on the count of Kings back in Vikingtimes. The ASB ISOT of Denmark to 1864 also have one now with the changed situation regarding the First International and the security situation of Thailand during second half to 1800's. That much said I don't adhere to the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD but like to use it in a ripple effect - that Denmark arrives doesn't change everything in South America in an instant! I also think there'd be a ripple effect. Now the question is, how fast would it be? In the Chaos TL, I went so far to decide "Since the Americas are separated by an ocean, there will be no change at all until they'll be discovered". That's an exaggeration, of course.
OTOH, I also don't believe that everything would immediately change.
This leaves a lot of leeway, of course.
However, I'm quite sure that the conception of new people would change as soon as any change hits their parents. The genes stay the same, but siblings who have the same sex still can be very different. Hence: Change the ACW e.g., and you have removed Einstein, Hitler, Stalin etc. from history.
It would depend upon what the ripple effect of butterflies change and where as You might end up with the Japanese going to Pacific NW or whatever. When change hits somebody that person will experience change in some way if only because the options change and lead to a other outcomes.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jun 24, 2023 14:24:14 GMT
I'm not sure that anyone believes that everything would change immediately. Even in the modern world with highly connected economies, let alone communications. Well unless the PoD is something like a nuclear exchange or an asteroid hit or something like that.
I couldn't name anyone who believes that from the top of my head, but 575 mentioned "the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD", so there must be some of them around.
Well if you remember AHcom there is some over there who express that stance - call it a crowd or whatever.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 24, 2023 15:10:51 GMT
Not a fan at all. The mathematics in physics is directly related to information theory and fractalism. While physicists think the concept is elegant as it explains localism and complexification quite well, for it appears as that function in nature, both as a physical and in its subset, biological system function, the counter-organizing principle of entropy tends to damp it down and smooth it out. Law of the big numbers and such? Yes, that's something to be considered as well. But still... currently I'm thinking about airplane crash-related deaths in "How many Sixes". At the end of 1940, thanks to butterflies, as different people as Italo Balbo (good for the Axis), three Australian ministers (good for the Allies, or Menzies at least), and Helene de Portes (not entirely sure) have survived. Oh, and author Nathanael West too.
To "smooth things out", I should kill off several halfway prominent people in the same timespan. Haven't decided which ones.
Because I just remembered "For all Mankind": In this TV show, John Lennon survives his assassination attempt, but John Paul II doesn't. I don't believe in a cosmic scale which makes sure that a certain number of rare but not extremely rare event (for comparison: in a century, the death of a POTUS in office is rare, but not extremely rare) is bound to happen in a certain time. But as long as the world doesn't change VERY much, the basic probabilities for such rare events won't change much, so you can expect a number of the same magnitude. Not yet if there are just one or two such events, but from three on, I think it works like this. |
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Post by stevep on Jun 25, 2023 9:19:53 GMT
I couldn't name anyone who believes that from the top of my head, but 575 mentioned "the fanatic's crowd who believe everything changes at POD", so there must be some of them around.
Well if you remember AHcom there is some over there who express that stance - call it a crowd or whatever.
OK thanks for clarifying. Must be at least a decade since I was active there so all that is rather distant in what passes for my memory. You did get some really crazy TLs I agree.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 28, 2023 23:42:40 GMT
Well if you remember AHcom there is some over there who express that stance - call it a crowd or whatever.
OK thanks for clarifying. Must be at least a decade since I was active there so all that is rather distant in what passes for my memory. You did get some really crazy TLs I agree.
Hmm, which ones are you thinking of?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2023 18:35:30 GMT
OK thanks for clarifying. Must be at least a decade since I was active there so all that is rather distant in what passes for my memory. You did get some really crazy TLs I agree.
Hmm, which ones are you thinking of?
Well the one that most comes to mind was Decades of Darkness where the south not only wins independence but then becomes this massive military giant despite being a slavocracy. Kind of like a Draka TL not played tongue in cheek!
I tended to remember the very good ones on the site and avoided those which drifted too far into insanity.
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