AHC: A federal ban on slavery (equivalent to 13th amendment) by 1885, without a secession or suppres

[raharris1973]

So here's the challenge: Achieve a United States federal ban on slavery (equivalent to 13th amendment) by 1885, without a secession or suppression of secession, with no points of divergence from OTL's American history any earlier than 1837.

This seems difficult. But that's why it is a challenge. Cotton has become a profitable growth sector for the economy. Slavery has already become a highly charged sectionalized, moralized, emotionalized debate. On the other hand, while taking away secession (and southern abandonment of peaceful Congressional political leverage), Civil War, and abolition as wartime measures excuses for implementing antislavery federal laws, I am giving you 20 extra years to work with beyond OTL's 13th amendment, on top of an additional 18 years for national and southern thought on slavery, and possibly race, to diverge from OTL.

I have also attached a poll on whether or not the challenge under the conditions I've laid out here can be plausibly met.

[Max Sinister]

Decades of Darkness suggested that some day, someone would invent a cotton-picking machine, after which the value of slaves would drop. That happened ITTL in the 1930s, though.

[raharris1973]

Jun 24, 2023 12:01:25 GMT Max Sinister said:

Decades of Darkness suggested that some day, someone would invent a cotton-picking machine, after which the value of slaves would drop. That happened ITTL in the 1930s, though.

Interesting. Thanks for the reply.  Well since that is an economically driven collapse of slavery leading to its legal end *only in the 20th century*, that amounts to Decades of Darkness *failing* my challenge.

Of course, that scenario is pessimistic by design.

[stevep]

Jun 25, 2023 0:40:47 GMT raharris1973 said:

Jun 24, 2023 12:01:25 GMT Max Sinister said:

Decades of Darkness suggested that some day, someone would invent a cotton-picking machine, after which the value of slaves would drop. That happened ITTL in the 1930s, though.

Interesting. Thanks for the reply.  Well since that is an economically driven collapse of slavery leading to its legal end *only in the 20th century*, that amounts to Decades of Darkness *failing* my challenge.

Of course, that scenario is pessimistic by design.

  Possibly the issue would be could such a cotton picking machine be developed early enough to meet your criteria?  Probably not as it would require an invention early enough to make it clear that slave holding was no longer economically efficient - although there have been some arguments it was already in many cases by 1860.  Also you would have to overcome the other issues of large slave estates as status symbols and also that if slavery ends what happens to all the freed blacks?  [Neither the south nor the north wanted a lot of free blacks completing for work with white workers.

[575]

-No repeal of the Missouri Compromise in the wake of Kansas - Nebraska Act 1854 though that would incense the Southern Slavestates and probably lead to Secession and a Civil War which You don't want.

-Cotton Boll weevil during 1820's which would prevent the spread of slavestates as southern states economy would be ruined to some extend if not shifted to other crops. Which possibly have the effect of all of US wanting the (former)slaves to emigrate just on a much larger scheme or exported to South America. Not really nice but might in a ban on slavery as an outcome.

[miletus12]

Jun 25, 2023 10:26:05 GMT 575 said:

-No repeal of the Missouri Compromise in the wake of Kansas - Nebraska Act 1854 though that would incense the Southern Slavestates and probably lead to Secession and a Civil War which You don't want.

-Cotton Boll weevil during 1820's which would prevent the spread of slavestates as southern states economy would be ruined to some extend if not shifted to other crops. Which possibly have the effect of all of US wanting the (former)slaves to emigrate just on a much larger scheme or exported to South America. Not really nice but might in a ban on slavery as an outcome.

Really prefer a Thunder and Lightning solution.  It is hard to sidestep The Great Betrayal or a post Civil War racist America without massive progressive social engineering.  

[diamondstorm]

Apparently, the US was contemplating purchasing more of Mexico or possibly even Cuba from Spain. If they came to fruition, you could have more slave states and maintain a numerical balance between slave and free states while avoiding the Kansas-Nebraska Act and by extension keeping the Missouri Compromise. Secession wouldn't be impossible but less likely in my view. By 1885, I wouldn't dismiss the Upper South moving to abolish slavery if they hadn't already since plantation culture wasn't as dominant as in the Deep South, and in general there was more industry. The Deep South is a different story. There might be rumors of secession in 1885 but without the Upper South, it becomes far less likely realistically speaking. That said, I can see the rest of the Union pressuring the Deep South to abolish slavery and if there is an agreement to abolish slavery over the course of 20-25 years beginning in 1885 then I can see an amendment being passed shortly thereafter banning slavery on a federal level and on a state level in the early 20th century.

[raharris1973]

Jun 25, 2023 17:27:40 GMT miletus12 said:

Jun 25, 2023 10:26:05 GMT 575 said:

-No repeal of the Missouri Compromise in the wake of Kansas - Nebraska Act 1854 though that would incense the Southern Slavestates and probably lead to Secession and a Civil War which You don't want.

-Cotton Boll weevil during 1820's which would prevent the spread of slavestates as southern states economy would be ruined to some extend if not shifted to other crops. Which possibly have the effect of all of US wanting the (former)slaves to emigrate just on a much larger scheme or exported to South America. Not really nice but might in a ban on slavery as an outcome.

Really prefer a Thunder and Lightning solution.  It is hard to sidestep The Great Betrayal or a post Civil War racist America without massive progressive social engineering.

Could you give me a brief "TLDR" summary of 'Thunder and Lightning' - is it a major technological PoD in electrical generation, that leads to economic change, that in turn leads to major social change?

The first part appeared to be the direction it was going in, from a quick skim