1658 Carl Gustav X drown at Bramsø crossing Lillebælt, Denmark

[575]

Was watching a documentary on Danish DR last night - 1657 Charles Gustavus X decided to attack Denmark during his Polish Campaign moving his 7,000 man Army into Jutland. 30 January 1658 Carl Gustav X decide to cross the Lillebælt at Bramsø and not at the narrows in the north where the bridges sits today due to the strong current that made the ice unsafe to pass.

Bramsø is in the left of the pic where the Swedes were fired upon by a Danish force. The Swedes manage to defeat the Danish force and then went on to cross from Bramsø to Fyn. At this moment Carl Gustav X decided to switch from his Sleigh to his Horse; rather luckily because as the Sleigh went onto the ice it went through it drowning Horses and Driver!

WI Carl Gustav X had decided to continue in his Sleigh and drowns?

First off his Army have to decide if its going to continue the Campaign or retreat to the Duchy of Gottorp in Schleswig. Staying in Jutland isn't an option as during late Summer and Fall 1657 the Army had pillaged Jutland and the prospect of staying in Fyn or continue to Lolland via Langelandt would be a difficult choice which required a Commander sure of Victory and subsequent un-hindered leaving Sjælland following Victory.

Another issue would be the dedication to Confession i.e. the death of the King being a sign from HIM that the ways of the Swedish King being in error!

Carl Gustav X's son Carl XI had only been born 1657 and with the communications of the day decisionmaking in on the Commander in place. FM Wrangel had been ordered to check the Danish Army 9,000 troops in Bremen-Verden with 1,800 troops who were able to keep the Danes occupied and quite a number of the Danish Mercenaries changed side for the Swedes (remember their troops weren't just Swedish Gossar(boys) but quite some Mercenaries).

The Danish Navy had been mobilized and held control of the Baltic.

The Swedish problem would be for the Political leadership at Stockholm to appoint a guardian of the Infant King (only born 1655) and then decide how to deal with the War.

[575]

Two things regarding possible Swedish decision-making at the demise of the King:

the Mercenary part of the Army was a huge post on National Economy as was keeping the Army on a War-footing;

Edit: a Swedish member at AHcom vonAdler in an older thread did write of the Swedish Army of the day being a Mercenary one raised in German lands - as long as the Swedes would pay they had no problem in raising such troops.

the Guardian Government of Carl XI did make peace following the death of Carl Gustav X by pneumonia 1660.

[575]

Swedish successor King Carl XI was known as the boring King – no great campain only defeating the Danish during the Scanian War 1676-79.
Here there may be no such war as Denmark wouldn't lose Scania during 1658. Denmark may well have the 1648 ceding of Halland possibly Jämtland and Härjedal too and perhaps Gotland and Ösel reversed.
This may actually make for a peacefull time till 1678 when Sweden were to hand back Halland to Denmark according to the 1648 Peace - if not that may trigger another war. And then loss of Scania!
Come 1697 and Charles XII though Denmark-Norway would have little incitement for joining the Alliance against Charles – nothing to regain except if Charles attack Scania.

So if no Swedish attack on Denmark-Norway 1697-1718 and no 1718 attack on Norway Sweden and Denmark – Norway may live happily ever after.

Only problem in Denmark would be the Border – the Gottorp lands were only incorporated due to the 1709-20 War. Joining up against Sweden following Charles XII defeat 1709 at Poltava may turn bad once he return from the Ottoman Empire 1714.
If Denmark-Norway just go on their own against the Swedes they may lose Scania even if they are able to get Gottorp into the fold. Britain and Netherlands would have their moment of making the Sound open waters instead of 1679.

However other issues may muddy the waters – the Great Nordic War may still see Peter 1 initially wanting Denmark-Norway join the Coalition against Sweden with the prospect of gaining Gottorp.
It should be possible to stay out untill at least 1709 and possibly even longer as Peter 1 at that time with a victory over Charles XII have no need for further Allies.

Should Denmark decide to staying out of GNW what will Charles XII do upon return from the Ottoman Empire?

[575]

The important issue of Gottorp Duchy usually in alliance with Sweden will persist and be made worse if Tsaritsa Anna still marries Duke Carl Frederik post deat of Peter 1 as Denmark-Norway then won't be able to conquer Gottorp without getting into war with Russia!

Any thoughts ideas?

[stevep]

Aug 30, 2023 11:39:42 GMT 575 said:

Swedish successor King Carl XI was known as the boring King – no great campain only defeating the Danish during the Scanian War 1676-79.
Here there may be no such war as Denmark wouldn't lose Scania during 1658. Denmark may well have the 1648 ceding of Halland possibly Jämtland and Härjedal too and perhaps Gotland and Ösel reversed.
This may actually make for a peacefull time till 1678 when Sweden were to hand back Halland to Denmark according to the 1648 Peace - if not that may trigger another war. And then loss of Scania!
Come 1697 and Charles XII though Denmark-Norway would have little incitement for joining the Alliance against Charles – nothing to regain except if Charles attack Scania.

So if no Swedish attack on Denmark-Norway 1697-1718 and no 1718 attack on Norway Sweden and Denmark – Norway may live happily ever after.

Only problem in Denmark would be the Border – the Gottorp lands were only incorporated due to the 1709-20 War. Joining up against Sweden following Charles XII defeat 1709 at Poltava may turn bad once he return from the Ottoman Empire 1714.
If Denmark-Norway just go on their own against the Swedes they may lose Scania even if they are able to get Gottorp into the fold. Britain and Netherlands would have their moment of making the Sound open waters instead of 1679.

However other issues may muddy the waters – the Great Nordic War may still see Peter 1 initially wanting Denmark-Norway join the Coalition against Sweden with the prospect of gaining Gottorp.
It should be possible to stay out untill at least 1709 and possibly even longer as Peter 1 at that time with a victory over Charles XII have no need for further Allies.

Should Denmark decide to staying out of GNW what will Charles XII do upon return from the Ottoman Empire?

  If Denmark stays out of the early part of the war - assuming it still occurs of course - then does Poltava still occur.  Given we have a POD 49 years before your likely to butterfly both Charles XII and Peter at least as the people we know.  There are going to be monarchs in both states, barring something dramatic but they could well be significantly different in character.  Have a weak Czar and you might not get the conflict at all. 

  No doubt you will have Russia challenging Sweden for control of axis to the Baltic sooner or later but when and under what circumstances could vary greatly.

[575]

Aug 30, 2023 12:29:25 GMT stevep said:

Aug 30, 2023 11:39:42 GMT 575 said:

Swedish successor King Carl XI was known as the boring King – no great campain only defeating the Danish during the Scanian War 1676-79.
Here there may be no such war as Denmark wouldn't lose Scania during 1658. Denmark may well have the 1648 ceding of Halland possibly Jämtland and Härjedal too and perhaps Gotland and Ösel reversed.
This may actually make for a peacefull time till 1678 when Sweden were to hand back Halland to Denmark according to the 1648 Peace - if not that may trigger another war. And then loss of Scania!
Come 1697 and Charles XII though Denmark-Norway would have little incitement for joining the Alliance against Charles – nothing to regain except if Charles attack Scania.

So if no Swedish attack on Denmark-Norway 1697-1718 and no 1718 attack on Norway Sweden and Denmark – Norway may live happily ever after.

Only problem in Denmark would be the Border – the Gottorp lands were only incorporated due to the 1709-20 War. Joining up against Sweden following Charles XII defeat 1709 at Poltava may turn bad once he return from the Ottoman Empire 1714.
If Denmark-Norway just go on their own against the Swedes they may lose Scania even if they are able to get Gottorp into the fold. Britain and Netherlands would have their moment of making the Sound open waters instead of 1679.

However other issues may muddy the waters – the Great Nordic War may still see Peter 1 initially wanting Denmark-Norway join the Coalition against Sweden with the prospect of gaining Gottorp.
It should be possible to stay out untill at least 1709 and possibly even longer as Peter 1 at that time with a victory over Charles XII have no need for further Allies.

Should Denmark decide to staying out of GNW what will Charles XII do upon return from the Ottoman Empire?

  If Denmark stays out of the early part of the war - assuming it still occurs of course - then does Poltava still occur.  Given we have a POD 49 years before your likely to butterfly both Charles XII and Peter at least as the people we know.  There are going to be monarchs in both states, barring something dramatic but they could well be significantly different in character.  Have a weak Czar and you might not get the conflict at all. 

  No doubt you will have Russia challenging Sweden for control of axis to the Baltic sooner or later but when and under what circumstances could vary greatly.

Thanks for the input - I'm not building a TL right now just looking for possibilities.

Frederik III is the King of Denmark 1657 - without loss of Scania his son Christian V won't have the urge to regain that. That would surely point him in other directions. Hence probably no war with Sweden especially not if the Swedes retreat from Halland 1678 as per 1648 Peace Treaty - and Carl XI will be even more the boring King!

It will be to the benefit of both nations and the next generation of Kings Frederik IV of Denmark - Norway and Charles XII of Sweden won't be nursed on a diet of hate for the evil neighbor.

With such little change the Governments of both nations may be able to restrain their Kings from too much adventure.

[575]

However one good thing did come out of the Carl Gustav X go at Denmark – to be better prepared next time.
As usual the Navy had performed as expected but the Army!

1667 Count Anton Günther of Oldenburg and Delmenhorst dies without issue; King Frederik III and Duke Christian Albrecht of Gottorp agree to occupy the lands of the dead Count in concert against the will of the Duke of Plön in Holstein - which was one of the cadet branches of the Royal and Ducal lines in Schleswig-Holstein – who ask for Imperial Arbitration. In a weak moment apparently Duke Christian Albrcht had agreed to a economic compensation by the King to take over all the lands with the Duke Christian Albrecht receiving the daughter of King Frederik III Frederikke Amalie as wife and an economic settlement.
By 1670 King Christian V had made an economic settlement with the Duke of Plön and then reminded Duke Christian Albrecht of the 1667 agreement which the Duke couldn't escape though when Imperial Arbitration 1671 ruled in favour of the Duke of Plön King Christian through the settlement of 1670 was sole ruler of Oldenburg – Delmenhorst much to the dissatisfaction of Duke Christian Albrecht who renewed its 1661 agreement with Sweden.

This being the real stone in the shoe of Danish – Swedish relations on the background of the French – Imperial conflict during the time. Sweden being allied to France but not wanting a war and Denmark-Norway drifting towards Imperial Alliance.
Though without the revancist Danish political leadership – mostly so in Military circles – the chancellor Griffenfeld might be able to convince the King that negotiating an unwilling French ally instead of jumping into war would be a much better proposition. Finding a territorial concession to Gottorp to ease tension perhaps by letting the Gottorp Duke keep the economic compensation AND get Delmenhorst too.
It may be doable.

(well its almost a TL by now...)