Yugoslav Wars and Atomic bomb

[michelvan]

SFR Yugoslavia disintegrate into independence wars, and insurgencies that took place from 1991 to 2001.

Lesser know is that Yugoslavia had Nuclear Weapon program in 1970s.(they abandon it)
What if they manage to build atomic bomb and test them in 1980s ?

How would Nukes affect the Yugoslav Wars and how would EU, USA, Russia react on this ?

[lordroel]

Oct 18, 2023 16:15:43 GMT michelvan said:

SFR Yugoslavia disintegrate into independence wars, and insurgencies that took place from 1991 to 2001.

Lesser know is that Yugoslavia had Nuclear Weapon program in 1970s.(they abandon it)
What if they manage to build atomic bomb and test them in 1980s ?

How would Nukes affect the Yugoslav Wars and how would EU, USA, Russia react on this ?

I assume Yugoslavia (Serbia) controls the nukes.

[Max Sinister]

This would mean that they might get nukes while Tito's still alive. What would he do with them? This might give the Cold War an interesting twist.

[575]

If they test the nukes on their territory or in the Adriatic (where else?) there would be some uproar in Europe with no Nuklear tests taking place before.
Who hits the fall-out? Depending on season it might be Italy.. quite some issues in this.

[stevep]

Oct 18, 2023 19:28:20 GMT 575 said:

If they test the nukes on their territory or in the Adriatic (where else?) there would be some uproar in Europe with no Nuklear tests taking place before.
Who hits the fall-out? Depending on season it might be Italy.. quite some issues in this.

  Not as much as if it goes east and affects the Warsaw Pact!  That could get a very nasty reaction.

  If they haven't tested the weapons there would be questions over their reliability plus also what delivery system is being used?  If missiles what would be their range and how quickly could they be launched in a crisis - thinking of their survivability in the event of a pre-emptive strike.  If a/c then what numbers and again how surviveable would they be plus their ability to penetrate possibly defences.  Also where would even the most deranged Serbian hard liners target? 

[michelvan]

Oct 18, 2023 19:28:20 GMT 575 said:

If they test the nukes on their territory or in the Adriatic (where else?) there would be some uproar in Europe with no Nuklear tests taking place before.
Who hits the fall-out? Depending on season it might be Italy.. quite some issues in this.

They would make underground test, just like north Korea.

Oct 18, 2023 17:07:46 GMT lordroel said:

I assume Yugoslavia (Serbia) controls the nukes.

it depends witch nationality has the Military who operate the Nukes

[michelvan]

I just realise something
if Yugoslavia are able to build the A-bomb and test it, mean they are in stable enough to finance the nuclear program
So is a Yugoslavia that avoids the economic downturn and thus more likely than not does not disintegrate ?


however the Nuclear program high cost, could let to economic downturn also...
do need of Delivery system for nuke.

[nomommsen]

Oct 19, 2023 9:24:31 GMT michelvan said:

I just realise something
if Yugoslavia are able to build the A-bomb and test it, mean they are in stable enough to finance the nuclear program
So is a Yugoslavia that avoids the economic downturn and thus more likely than not does not disintegrate ?


however the Nuclear program high cost, could let to economic downturn also...
do need of Delivery system for nuke.

Given North Korea as a 'template' economics doesn't seem to play too much of a role if the regime wanting to have them acts ruthless dedicated enough.

What about a 'tactical' delivery? ... artillery and/or planes? (maybe not the 'super-overkillers' but enough to ruin some peoples days)

But as asked already:

who should/would be the 'main' target for such weapons might be crucial for such a decision/choice.

[michelvan]

Nov 1, 2023 7:27:37 GMT nomommsen said:

What about a 'tactical' delivery? ... artillery and/or planes? (maybe not the 'super-overkillers' but enough to ruin some peoples days)

unclear, certain that Multi-combat aircaft "Novi Avion" would carry the bomb
but Novi Avion was cancelled before Yugoslavia collapsed

[stevep]

Nov 1, 2023 7:27:37 GMT nomommsen said:

Oct 19, 2023 9:24:31 GMT michelvan said:

I just realise something
if Yugoslavia are able to build the A-bomb and test it, mean they are in stable enough to finance the nuclear program
So is a Yugoslavia that avoids the economic downturn and thus more likely than not does not disintegrate ?


however the Nuclear program high cost, could let to economic downturn also...
do need of Delivery system for nuke.

Given North Korea as a 'template' economics doesn't seem to play too much of a role if the regime wanting to have them acts ruthless dedicated enough.

What about a 'tactical' delivery? ... artillery and/or planes? (maybe not the 'super-overkillers' but enough to ruin some peoples days)

But as asked already:

who should/would be the 'main' target for such weapons might be crucial for such a decision/choice.

  Artillery might be difficult as it needs a lot of miniaturization but might be possible.  An aircraft is probably more likely.

[michelvan]

Nov 2, 2023 22:48:16 GMT stevep said:

Artillery might be difficult as it needs a lot of miniaturization but might be possible. 

It's miniaturisation in extrem form.

They must compress Atom bomb like Little Boy (4040kg 3,20 m x 0,71 m ø) into W9 (390 kg 1,380 m x 0,28 m ø) while keep same yield of 15 kt!
But this need superior nuclear technology and high cost.

[lukedalton]

A Yugoslavian bomb will mean that Italy will continue his own nuclear weapon and delivery system program en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_nuclear_weapons_program and i personally think that we can kiss goodbye to the treaty of Osimo en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Osimo#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20of%20Osimo%20was%20signed%20on%2010,Istrian%20peninsula%20%28Zone%20B%29%20was%20given%20to%20Yugoslavia. meaning an increased tension on italian eastern border.

This and the probable slowing of the western tech and economic help in addition to the cost of the program can really undo the yugoslavian economy

[michelvan]

Nov 3, 2023 21:43:02 GMT lukedalton said:

A Yugoslavian bomb will mean that Italy will continue his own nuclear weapon and delivery system program

In 1970s had Italy, Swiss, Yugoslavia and Rumania, their project for Atomic Bomb.
Italy was with NATO warheads on ALFA missile, rest were own development
Swiss was first to abandon their program, Rumania had not means build one, USA say NO WAY to Italy, and Yugoslavia was last to abandon there project end 1970s
The reasons were various lack of finance, technical how-know, missing resources or political will to complete the program.

[lukedalton]

Nov 5, 2023 21:35:38 GMT michelvan said:

In 1970s had Italy, Swiss, Yugoslavia and Rumania, their project for Atomic Bomb.
Italy was with NATO warheads on ALFA missile, rest were own development
Swiss was first to abandon their program, Rumania had not means build one, USA say NO WAY to Italy, and Yugoslavia was last to abandon there project end 1970s
The reasons were various lack of finance, technical how-know, missing resources or political will to complete the program.

Officially at the end of the 70's yes but when Italy signed the Non Proliferation Treaty their program was already de facto shrinking towards ending (and everyone knows it) so while the USA put a lot of pression...well the need was greatly diminished so it was not that great concession expecially in that financial climate. The Jugoslavian really having the bomb change a lot of the political landscape internationally and if Italy really want become a nuclear power, well like Germany and Japan, by the 70's she can from a merely technical pow...sure it will not have the capacity of France but she don't need it in this scenario

[gillan1220]

Nuclear proliferation happens. With a POD in the 1970s-1980s with a nuclear-armed Yugoslavia is going to introduce a lot of butterflies. I wonder how the Soviets and NATO will react, especially since Yugoslavia was neither aligned to both major blocs but was leaning more into the West.

But if we waive the butterflies away, this would prompt the UN and NATO to act to secure those remnant nuclear weapons once the 1990s conflict in the Balkans occur. It's too risky for all sides to use it or even worse, the nuclear weapons ending up in the black market.