The Czechoslovak Spring 1968

[575]

The Czechoslovak Spring 1968

Dubcek had argued for Socialism with a human face during the year which had irritated Soviet leader Breznev to the limit of ordering STAVKA to plan an invasion of Czechoslovakia to remove Dubcek and his treacherous ideas.
As the Warsaw Pact troops of Poland, German Democratic Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria – Romania and Albania had rejected participation – and the Soviet Union start the Tank engines on the night of 20 August 1968 an hour before 10 PM when the Warsaw Pact was to move into Czechoslovakia the Czech aligned Space Bat Oldric decide to ISOT the Soviet Union and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to another time in the Space-Time Continuum and replace it with the Soviet Union/Russia of 28 June 1919 the date of signing the Treaty of Versailles to let Dubcek carry his work through.
Not to tip the scales of the 1968 World too much in favour of the Capitalist World Oldric also ISOT the USA and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to 28 June 1919.
The Soviet Union/Russia and USA of 1919 will replace the territory of their 1968 counterparts with a few changes:

In the Soviet Union/Russia of 1919 the Allied Intervention Forces have been left out of the ISOT which gives the Red Forces in the North/Murmansk, in the Baltic, in the South and in Sibiria a breathing space.
This also account for Estonia, Latvia and Peoples Republic of Ukraine being around. The German IV Corps of v.d. Goltz as its Western Interventionist counterparts too is left out of the ISOT giving the Baltic nations a breathing space.
Poland of 1919 is occupying a Western Part of Belarus, Lithuania and at war with the Peoples Ukrainian Republic in Galizia.

The USA of 1919 is arriving without the Philippines and all of its 1919 Armed Forces are back in the USA.

All Soviet Union/USA troops, materiel and depots are removed from 1968 including Nuclear Warheads controlled by either power though earmarked for use by coalition members.

What happens now?

Both major Military Organizations have been decapitated.
Poland have part of its 1919 territory on its eastern border.
Romania have Bessarabia back.
Finland have its pre-WWII borders back.

[stevep]

Jan 1, 2024 12:12:24 GMT 575 said:

The Czechoslovak Spring 1968

Dubcek had argued for Socialism with a human face during the year which had irritated Soviet leader Breznev to the limit of ordering STAVKA to plan an invasion of Czechoslovakia to remove Dubcek and his treacherous ideas.
As the Warsaw Pact troops of Poland, German Democratic Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria – Romania and Albania had rejected participation – and the Soviet Union start the Tank engines on the night of 20 August 1968 an hour before 10 PM when the Warsaw Pact was to move into Czechoslovakia the Czech aligned Space Bat Oldric decide to ISOT the Soviet Union and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to another time in the Space-Time Continuum and replace it with the Soviet Union/Russia of 28 June 1919 the date of signing the Treaty of Versailles to let Dubcek carry his work through.
Not to tip the scales of the 1968 World too much in favour of the Capitalist World Oldric also ISOT the USA and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to 28 June 1919.
The Soviet Union/Russia and USA of 1919 will replace the territory of their 1968 counterparts with a few changes:

In the Soviet Union/Russia of 1919 the Allied Intervention Forces have been left out of the ISOT which gives the Red Forces in the North/Murmansk, in the Baltic, in the South and in Sibiria a breathing space.
This also account for Estonia, Latvia and Peoples Republic of Ukraine being around. The German IV Corps of v.d. Goltz as its Western Interventionist counterparts too is left out of the ISOT giving the Baltic nations a breathing space.
Poland of 1919 is occupying a Western Part of Belarus, Lithuania and at war with the Peoples Ukrainian Republic in Galizia.

The USA of 1919 is arriving without the Philippines and all of its 1919 Armed Forces are back in the USA.

All Soviet Union/USA troops, materiel and depots are removed from 1968 including Nuclear Warheads controlled by either power though earmarked for use by coalition members.

What happens now?

Both major Military Organizations have been decapitated.
Poland have part of its 1919 territory on its eastern border.
Romania have Bessarabia back.
Finland have its pre-WWII borders back.

  Talk about interesting times.  I can see a quick collapse of what's left of the Warsaw Pact, although probably with some chaos and even bloodshed as some of the dictators and regimes won't want to give up power easily, especially with the danger of them being hung by former subjects.  The Czechs might come out of this better than anyone else. 

  There are three formal nuclear powers left, Britain, France and China, with the last two being fairly recent arrivals.  [Plus probably Israel of course] One big question is what does Mao go.  Having regained control of China at the cost of millions of deaths and chaos from the Cultural Revolution he was involved in border clashes with the USSR.  That's now gone so China might seek to 'regain' claims in Siberia and even Central Asia.  Possibly also with the US presence having disappeared supporting a NK attack on the south.  On the other hand he might seek to support Lenin and the early Bolsheviks to prevent European Russia falling back into non-communist hands.  - If he doesn't even then its likely that elements in the west are likely to support some right wing or at least moderate left elements rather than have the Bolsheviks gaining power given the horrors that caused.  A Poland that has thrown off Communist rule could also seek to 'restore' much of the old early modern period Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

  One other nasty result of 1919 US and Russia being in 1968 is that this was pretty much the height of the 2nd and markedly more lethal Flu pandemic so even with modern knowledge that could cause some nasty results, especially possibly in the less developed parts of the world.

  Politically the world is far more Euro-centric again with China and Japan as probably the biggest military/economic powers outside Europe.  Also of the 3 remaining permanent members of the UN Security Council are Britain, France and the Nationalist Chinese state on Taiwan as China wasn't recognised as taking over the role until 1971 so if they wish the western powers could prevent that change.  The US, despite its relatively backward status could be given its seat back but Russia at the moment is in widespread chaos with multiple factions fighting for a state of uncertain boundaries, albeit that the Bolsheviks are gaining the upper hand.

  The 1968 world has lost its two most important military and economic states as well as large producers and consumers of oil and with the US the largest food exporter.  That's going to cause a lot of chaos which will be compounded by the issues between the up and down time American interests especially. 

  Not sure what will happen in the ME.  Israel has lost the US as its primarily supporter but has only just inflicted a crushing military defeat on its neighbours and gained a lot of territory as buffer zones while the bordering Arab states no longer have the USSR to support them.  I doubt if either Britain or France will want to stick their heading into such a mess again unless they feel they need to.  Is there still an oil crisis with the emergence of an OPEC type organisation, although terrorism by some Palestinian groups is likely to be an issue.  In those drastically different circumstances what happens in Iran?  Still a decade before the OTL Iranian revolution but can it be avoided by levels of reform?  Albeit that the up-timers have no idea what is coming.  Could the ME have a period of greater stability and security?

  One other issue with a 1919 US which is slipping into isolation and probably arguing with western Europe especially about property, assets and intellectual rights as well as what WWI debts are still relevant is also going to be a lot more conservative and could it possibly be willing to give support to white minority regimes in S Africa and Rhodesia and possibly also the Portuguese regime and its African colonies?

  I know that the US doesn't have its 1919 colony of the Philippines but what is the status of areas such as Hawaii and Alaska - not yet states - Puerto Rico - still not a state and areas such as the Panama canal zone?  Similarly with areas such as the Marshall Islands that the US took over from Japan after WWII?  I would guess that Hawaii and Alaska will be in 1919 mode and the latter places in 1968 mode but not sure about Puerto Rico and the canal zone as both were under US control at both dates?  Mind you there's also the matter of probably about a million or more US troops from 1968 US overseas bases now finding themselves in 1919 US. Similarly are overseas tourists, businessmen, students etc who are in overseas lands in 1968 also returned to 1919 US or still left around the world?  One thing is that 1919 US is still a year plus away from an election, as opposed to a few months in the eyes of the 1968 people.  Although its going to be a pig sorting out what election rules and franchise are selected and who actually gets to vote.

  Going to be a hell of a lot of chaos all around.

[575]

Jan 1, 2024 21:56:07 GMT stevep said:

Jan 1, 2024 12:12:24 GMT 575 said:

The Czechoslovak Spring 1968

Dubcek had argued for Socialism with a human face during the year which had irritated Soviet leader Breznev to the limit of ordering STAVKA to plan an invasion of Czechoslovakia to remove Dubcek and his treacherous ideas.
As the Warsaw Pact troops of Poland, German Democratic Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria – Romania and Albania had rejected participation – and the Soviet Union start the Tank engines on the night of 20 August 1968 an hour before 10 PM when the Warsaw Pact was to move into Czechoslovakia the Czech aligned Space Bat Oldric decide to ISOT the Soviet Union and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to another time in the Space-Time Continuum and replace it with the Soviet Union/Russia of 28 June 1919 the date of signing the Treaty of Versailles to let Dubcek carry his work through.
Not to tip the scales of the 1968 World too much in favour of the Capitalist World Oldric also ISOT the USA and all its Armed Forces from 1968 to 28 June 1919.
The Soviet Union/Russia and USA of 1919 will replace the territory of their 1968 counterparts with a few changes:

In the Soviet Union/Russia of 1919 the Allied Intervention Forces have been left out of the ISOT which gives the Red Forces in the North/Murmansk, in the Baltic, in the South and in Sibiria a breathing space.
This also account for Estonia, Latvia and Peoples Republic of Ukraine being around. The German IV Corps of v.d. Goltz as its Western Interventionist counterparts too is left out of the ISOT giving the Baltic nations a breathing space.
Poland of 1919 is occupying a Western Part of Belarus, Lithuania and at war with the Peoples Ukrainian Republic in Galizia.

The USA of 1919 is arriving without the Philippines and all of its 1919 Armed Forces are back in the USA.

All Soviet Union/USA troops, materiel and depots are removed from 1968 including Nuclear Warheads controlled by either power though earmarked for use by coalition members.

What happens now?

Both major Military Organizations have been decapitated.
Poland have part of its 1919 territory on its eastern border.
Romania have Bessarabia back.
Finland have its pre-WWII borders back.

  Talk about interesting times.  I can see a quick collapse of what's left of the Warsaw Pact, although probably with some chaos and even bloodshed as some of the dictators and regimes won't want to give up power easily, especially with the danger of them being hung by former subjects.  The Czechs might come out of this better than anyone else. 

  There are three formal nuclear powers left, Britain, France and China, with the last two being fairly recent arrivals.  [Plus probably Israel of course] One big question is what does Mao go.  Having regained control of China at the cost of millions of deaths and chaos from the Cultural Revolution he was involved in border clashes with the USSR.  That's now gone so China might seek to 'regain' claims in Siberia and even Central Asia.  Possibly also with the US presence having disappeared supporting a NK attack on the south.  On the other hand he might seek to support Lenin and the early Bolsheviks to prevent European Russia falling back into non-communist hands.  - If he doesn't even then its likely that elements in the west are likely to support some right wing or at least moderate left elements rather than have the Bolsheviks gaining power given the horrors that caused.  A Poland that has thrown off Communist rule could also seek to 'restore' much of the old early modern period Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

  One other nasty result of 1919 US and Russia being in 1968 is that this was pretty much the height of the 2nd and markedly more lethal Flu pandemic so even with modern knowledge that could cause some nasty results, especially possibly in the less developed parts of the world.

  Politically the world is far more Euro-centric again with China and Japan as probably the biggest military/economic powers outside Europe.  Also of the 3 remaining permanent members of the UN Security Council are Britain, France and the Nationalist Chinese state on Taiwan as China wasn't recognised as taking over the role until 1971 so if they wish the western powers could prevent that change.  The US, despite its relatively backward status could be given its seat back but Russia at the moment is in widespread chaos with multiple factions fighting for a state of uncertain boundaries, albeit that the Bolsheviks are gaining the upper hand.

  The 1968 world has lost its two most important military and economic states as well as large producers and consumers of oil and with the US the largest food exporter.  That's going to cause a lot of chaos which will be compounded by the issues between the up and down time American interests especially. 

  Not sure what will happen in the ME.  Israel has lost the US as its primarily supporter but has only just inflicted a crushing military defeat on its neighbours and gained a lot of territory as buffer zones while the bordering Arab states no longer have the USSR to support them.  I doubt if either Britain or France will want to stick their heading into such a mess again unless they feel they need to.  Is there still an oil crisis with the emergence of an OPEC type organisation, although terrorism by some Palestinian groups is likely to be an issue.  In those drastically different circumstances what happens in Iran?  Still a decade before the OTL Iranian revolution but can it be avoided by levels of reform?  Albeit that the up-timers have no idea what is coming.  Could the ME have a period of greater stability and security?

  One other issue with a 1919 US which is slipping into isolation and probably arguing with western Europe especially about property, assets and intellectual rights as well as what WWI debts are still relevant is also going to be a lot more conservative and could it possibly be willing to give support to white minority regimes in S Africa and Rhodesia and possibly also the Portuguese regime and its African colonies?

  I know that the US doesn't have its 1919 colony of the Philippines but what is the status of areas such as Hawaii and Alaska - not yet states - Puerto Rico - still not a state and areas such as the Panama canal zone?  Similarly with areas such as the Marshall Islands that the US took over from Japan after WWII?  I would guess that Hawaii and Alaska will be in 1919 mode and the latter places in 1968 mode but not sure about Puerto Rico and the canal zone as both were under US control at both dates?  Mind you there's also the matter of probably about a million or more US troops from 1968 US overseas bases now finding themselves in 1919 US. Similarly are overseas tourists, businessmen, students etc who are in overseas lands in 1968 also returned to 1919 US or still left around the world?  One thing is that 1919 US is still a year plus away from an election, as opposed to a few months in the eyes of the 1968 people.  Although its going to be a pig sorting out what election rules and franchise are selected and who actually gets to vote.

  Going to be a hell of a lot of chaos all around.

Regarding US territories - those being independent countries is 1968 those being territories being 1919. Regarding US citizens - troops as USSR troops these go along their nation to 1919 and vice-versa.

Flu-pandemic - problematic yes but initially in US and USSR/Russia but it will be a serious health problem though as You point to this is round 2 and in contrast to 1919 the population of 1968 haven't just survived a WW and resultant foodshortages and 1 round of flu-pandemic. Still a serious health problem.

Food supply - You know hard data i.e. tons of stuff like wheat is difficult to obtain. Most is converted to sales values. However:

The EEC have reached mostly selfsupport in agricultural produce - France is 1968 exporting wheat by subsidizing prices much to the annoyance of US!

US agricultural exports - 1/5 is Government distribution to areas in need, famine counter, India and for political reasons - keep nations from going Communist and War on Hunger. Large parts of the export isn't foodstuffs for peoples like cotton, tobacco, hides and soybeen products which is for livestock feed.

I most parts of the world agricultural produce is going up mainly so in developing nations and UK! Though the latter had foot-and-mouth outbreak 1967. Eastern Europe however is in decline and Oceania too though not NZ.

Western Europe have seen a very marked increase in living standards which is accountable for more imports.

Agree Warsaw Pact will collapse - Czechoslovakia have not had a Soviet occupation force so I expect it to soon wanting to join the EEC - it is a strong industrial nation and as such would still be a supplier of the other former Warsaw Pact members for spareparts and ammunition. Quite a nice position between East and West.

Poland have a national obligation now in the East with Polish troops fighting the Russians/Soviets/Ukrainians - you name it. It will stop the Soviets in Belarus but is it going to go further east and decapitate USSR?

Romania will survive on a obligation to integrate Bessarabia which have fallen in its lap.

Hungary will be pissed off as usual but now have border access to Russia. Karpato-Ukraine anybody?

There will be a lot of policydealing among former WAPA members and what about GDR? I expect some serious change of regime with the realization that the FRG is the way of future.

China? Yes border revision with Russia/USSR - forcibly or not.

UN security council - well the organization have lost its housing in USA though the former LoN in Switzerland is at times used so probably new seat there. Change of seats will be discussed. USA I expect still staying out.

The shock of being in 1968 will be severe to the USA - having become a backwater.

Middle/Near East - guess France will still be willing to support Israel if paid. FRG is constitutionally obligated to do so. Interesting - no? Turkey may want to "express" itself without USA and USSR in the region which may prolong the Shah of Iran in power depending on circumstances and Iranian handling of the internal situation vis-a-vis fears of Turkey.

[stevep]

Jan 2, 2024 10:09:04 GMT 575 said:

Jan 1, 2024 21:56:07 GMT stevep said:

  Talk about interesting times.  I can see a quick collapse of what's left of the Warsaw Pact, although probably with some chaos and even bloodshed as some of the dictators and regimes won't want to give up power easily, especially with the danger of them being hung by former subjects.  The Czechs might come out of this better than anyone else. 

  There are three formal nuclear powers left, Britain, France and China, with the last two being fairly recent arrivals.  [Plus probably Israel of course] One big question is what does Mao go.  Having regained control of China at the cost of millions of deaths and chaos from the Cultural Revolution he was involved in border clashes with the USSR.  That's now gone so China might seek to 'regain' claims in Siberia and even Central Asia.  Possibly also with the US presence having disappeared supporting a NK attack on the south.  On the other hand he might seek to support Lenin and the early Bolsheviks to prevent European Russia falling back into non-communist hands.  - If he doesn't even then its likely that elements in the west are likely to support some right wing or at least moderate left elements rather than have the Bolsheviks gaining power given the horrors that caused.  A Poland that has thrown off Communist rule could also seek to 'restore' much of the old early modern period Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

  One other nasty result of 1919 US and Russia being in 1968 is that this was pretty much the height of the 2nd and markedly more lethal Flu pandemic so even with modern knowledge that could cause some nasty results, especially possibly in the less developed parts of the world.

  Politically the world is far more Euro-centric again with China and Japan as probably the biggest military/economic powers outside Europe.  Also of the 3 remaining permanent members of the UN Security Council are Britain, France and the Nationalist Chinese state on Taiwan as China wasn't recognised as taking over the role until 1971 so if they wish the western powers could prevent that change.  The US, despite its relatively backward status could be given its seat back but Russia at the moment is in widespread chaos with multiple factions fighting for a state of uncertain boundaries, albeit that the Bolsheviks are gaining the upper hand.

  The 1968 world has lost its two most important military and economic states as well as large producers and consumers of oil and with the US the largest food exporter.  That's going to cause a lot of chaos which will be compounded by the issues between the up and down time American interests especially. 

  Not sure what will happen in the ME.  Israel has lost the US as its primarily supporter but has only just inflicted a crushing military defeat on its neighbours and gained a lot of territory as buffer zones while the bordering Arab states no longer have the USSR to support them.  I doubt if either Britain or France will want to stick their heading into such a mess again unless they feel they need to.  Is there still an oil crisis with the emergence of an OPEC type organisation, although terrorism by some Palestinian groups is likely to be an issue.  In those drastically different circumstances what happens in Iran?  Still a decade before the OTL Iranian revolution but can it be avoided by levels of reform?  Albeit that the up-timers have no idea what is coming.  Could the ME have a period of greater stability and security?

  One other issue with a 1919 US which is slipping into isolation and probably arguing with western Europe especially about property, assets and intellectual rights as well as what WWI debts are still relevant is also going to be a lot more conservative and could it possibly be willing to give support to white minority regimes in S Africa and Rhodesia and possibly also the Portuguese regime and its African colonies?

  I know that the US doesn't have its 1919 colony of the Philippines but what is the status of areas such as Hawaii and Alaska - not yet states - Puerto Rico - still not a state and areas such as the Panama canal zone?  Similarly with areas such as the Marshall Islands that the US took over from Japan after WWII?  I would guess that Hawaii and Alaska will be in 1919 mode and the latter places in 1968 mode but not sure about Puerto Rico and the canal zone as both were under US control at both dates?  Mind you there's also the matter of probably about a million or more US troops from 1968 US overseas bases now finding themselves in 1919 US. Similarly are overseas tourists, businessmen, students etc who are in overseas lands in 1968 also returned to 1919 US or still left around the world?  One thing is that 1919 US is still a year plus away from an election, as opposed to a few months in the eyes of the 1968 people.  Although its going to be a pig sorting out what election rules and franchise are selected and who actually gets to vote.

  Going to be a hell of a lot of chaos all around.

Regarding US territories - those being independent countries is 1968 those being territories being 1919. Regarding US citizens - troops as USSR troops these go along their nation to 1919 and vice-versa.

Flu-pandemic - problematic yes but initially in US and USSR/Russia but it will be a serious health problem though as You point to this is round 2 and in contrast to 1919 the population of 1968 haven't just survived a WW and resultant foodshortages and 1 round of flu-pandemic. Still a serious health problem.

Food supply - You know hard data i.e. tons of stuff like wheat is difficult to obtain. Most is converted to sales values. However:

The EEC have reached mostly selfsupport in agricultural produce - France is 1968 exporting wheat by subsidizing prices much to the annoyance of US!

US agricultural exports - 1/5 is Government distribution to areas in need, famine counter, India and for political reasons - keep nations from going Communist and War on Hunger. Large parts of the export isn't foodstuffs for peoples like cotton, tobacco, hides and soybeen products which is for livestock feed.

I most parts of the world agricultural produce is going up mainly so in developing nations and UK! Though the latter had foot-and-mouth outbreak 1967. Eastern Europe however is in decline and Oceania too though not NZ.

Western Europe have seen a very marked increase in living standards which is accountable for more imports.

Agree Warsaw Pact will collapse - Czechoslovakia have not had a Soviet occupation force so I expect it to soon wanting to join the EEC - it is a strong industrial nation and as such would still be a supplier of the other former Warsaw Pact members for spareparts and ammunition. Quite a nice position between East and West.

Poland have a national obligation now in the East with Polish troops fighting the Russians/Soviets/Ukrainians - you name it. It will stop the Soviets in Belarus but is it going to go further east and decapitate USSR?

Romania will survive on a obligation to integrate Bessarabia which have fallen in its lap.

Hungary will be pissed off as usual but now have border access to Russia. Karpato-Ukraine anybody?

There will be a lot of policydealing among former WAPA members and what about GDR? I expect some serious change of regime with the realization that the FRG is the way of future.

China? Yes border revision with Russia/USSR - forcibly or not.

UN security council - well the organization have lost its housing in USA though the former LoN in Switzerland is at times used so probably new seat there. Change of seats will be discussed. USA I expect still staying out.

The shock of being in 1968 will be severe to the USA - having become a backwater.

Middle/Near East - guess France will still be willing to support Israel if paid. FRG is constitutionally obligated to do so. Interesting - no? Turkey may want to "express" itself without USA and USSR in the region which may prolong the Shah of Iran in power depending on circumstances and Iranian handling of the internal situation vis-a-vis fears of Turkey.

  Good point about the US quite possibly wanting to stay out of any UN organisation, even if the offer is for a significant position in it.  Had overlooked that of course the 1968 base for the UN has gone so the powers will have to restart it somewhere else.

  I wonder how happy 1919 Bessarabia will be with becoming part of Ceaușescu's communist state?

  Also Turkey could be significantly more 'active' without either the restraining influence of the US or the major threat of a superpower USSR to the north.  I don't know if they would try seeking a revival of Enver Pasha's plans for a new Turkish 'empire' stretching into central Asia.  However could seek to 'regain' parts of Syria and possibly even make a bid for the Baku area although that could face Iranian opposition.

[575]

Jan 2, 2024 11:22:17 GMT stevep said:

Jan 2, 2024 10:09:04 GMT 575 said:

Regarding US territories - those being independent countries is 1968 those being territories being 1919. Regarding US citizens - troops as USSR troops these go along their nation to 1919 and vice-versa.

Flu-pandemic - problematic yes but initially in US and USSR/Russia but it will be a serious health problem though as You point to this is round 2 and in contrast to 1919 the population of 1968 haven't just survived a WW and resultant foodshortages and 1 round of flu-pandemic. Still a serious health problem.

Food supply - You know hard data i.e. tons of stuff like wheat is difficult to obtain. Most is converted to sales values. However:

The EEC have reached mostly selfsupport in agricultural produce - France is 1968 exporting wheat by subsidizing prices much to the annoyance of US!

US agricultural exports - 1/5 is Government distribution to areas in need, famine counter, India and for political reasons - keep nations from going Communist and War on Hunger. Large parts of the export isn't foodstuffs for peoples like cotton, tobacco, hides and soybeen products which is for livestock feed.

I most parts of the world agricultural produce is going up mainly so in developing nations and UK! Though the latter had foot-and-mouth outbreak 1967. Eastern Europe however is in decline and Oceania too though not NZ.

Western Europe have seen a very marked increase in living standards which is accountable for more imports.

Agree Warsaw Pact will collapse - Czechoslovakia have not had a Soviet occupation force so I expect it to soon wanting to join the EEC - it is a strong industrial nation and as such would still be a supplier of the other former Warsaw Pact members for spareparts and ammunition. Quite a nice position between East and West.

Poland have a national obligation now in the East with Polish troops fighting the Russians/Soviets/Ukrainians - you name it. It will stop the Soviets in Belarus but is it going to go further east and decapitate USSR?

Romania will survive on a obligation to integrate Bessarabia which have fallen in its lap.

Hungary will be pissed off as usual but now have border access to Russia. Karpato-Ukraine anybody?

There will be a lot of policydealing among former WAPA members and what about GDR? I expect some serious change of regime with the realization that the FRG is the way of future.

China? Yes border revision with Russia/USSR - forcibly or not.

UN security council - well the organization have lost its housing in USA though the former LoN in Switzerland is at times used so probably new seat there. Change of seats will be discussed. USA I expect still staying out.

The shock of being in 1968 will be severe to the USA - having become a backwater.

Middle/Near East - guess France will still be willing to support Israel if paid. FRG is constitutionally obligated to do so. Interesting - no? Turkey may want to "express" itself without USA and USSR in the region which may prolong the Shah of Iran in power depending on circumstances and Iranian handling of the internal situation vis-a-vis fears of Turkey.

  Good point about the US quite possibly wanting to stay out of any UN organisation, even if the offer is for a significant position in it.  Had overlooked that of course the 1968 base for the UN has gone so the powers will have to restart it somewhere else.

  I wonder how happy 1919 Bessarabia will be with becoming part of Ceaușescu's communist state?

  Also Turkey could be significantly more 'active' without either the restraining influence of the US or the major threat of a superpower USSR to the north.  I don't know if they would try seeking a revival of Enver Pasha's plans for a new Turkish 'empire' stretching into central Asia.  However could seek to 'regain' parts of Syria and possibly even make a bid for the Baku area although that could face Iranian opposition.

The Bessarabians might not be enthusiastic about their fate though possibly for the moment it will be better to be guarded by something neighter Reds or Whites or Greens forces have anything to counter.

With Ceausescu upholding his own might even if appearing to counter Moscow that part is gone and he will have to find some other motive to keep himself in power besides a pure Commu-fascist regime.

The problem for Turkey is that its military is US equipped so even if large it has some problems coming up. Even if the EEC powers may have some substatial reserve material stored they may not be willing to part with such untill they have a more clear situation in Europe - mainly with whats to happen in GDR and Hungary.

Of course both France, FRG, UK and Italy is arms producers as are Yugoslavia and Sweden as well as Czechoslovakia. China and Japan may seem a little distand here but China may have its own interests in Central Asia that will collide with Turkey at some point.

With the USSR gone the Palestinians have lost their main sponsor and the Arabs a source of weaponry to use against Israel. Depending upon developments a 1973-atl with Arabs heavily equipped with Soviet SA-missiles isn't going to materialize - I expect.

[575]

Regarding the Korean Peninsular at the time the Second Korean War was in its last year - found an essay on the situation.
As both Koreas lose their benefactor and as NK have already abandoned China because of its focus on the Cultural Revolution that is mainly over at the time of ISOT the situation can go both ways depending on Mao's outlook.
The SK will return their 49,000 troops and 100,000 civilians aiding South Vietnam to stiffen defences as the US troops have gone; if Mao reject NK overtures to support their cause the conflict may defuse but then SK may decide to go on their own..
I expect the immediate outcome to be the OTL de-escalation for the immediate time on the NK side mainly because the at sometime rumours of USA having vanished will undermine the Kim Regime narrative of the US threat.
Look up the essay and draw conclusions!

South Vietnam will of course be the loser in their conflict with a Chinese backed North. Even if the ARVN did well in places in the last phase of the war following US withdrawal their end is close. I don't see the EEC or British Commonwealth supporting.

[575]

OTL the ice broke between the West and WAPA nations on trade by 1972. Following this began a period termed Vodka - Cola during my history lessons in High School.
As there is no USSR/WAPA invasion of Czechoslovakia ITTL this may well come about as an outcome of the USSR ISOT - of course it won't be termed Vodka - Cola but perhaps Vodka - Schweppes/Gin/Brandy, whatever.
With Czechoslovakia going fast into the West though entry into EEC will be a lengthy process - Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway had negotiated such for several years - the other former WAPA countries will want trade agreements too.
OTL the Hungarians were out early for tradeagreement though the other except possibly GDR will follow suit. Poland as it will be drawn into the Russian Civil War and need economic backing; the others because their main trade partner have vanished and a replacement isn't around the corner. China isn't what we know today though Mao is moving to promote China as a friend of the oppressed as he did OTL.
Albania had been out of the WAPA since 1961 and had forged relations with China which however declined during the late 1960' resulting in Albania searching the EEC for trade partners. Guess Albania will continue to try get aid from China and trade with the EEC.

Yugoslavia may be some kind of dark horse. Guess Tito will try negotiate the former WAPA nations as well as EEC for trade and security. Partly because of quarrel with Italy since WWII drawing of border on Istria and continued Italian demands on Dalmatian Islands.
To his south is Greece ruled since 1967 of a military Junta which is in bad standing - at least in some way with Western Europe - which was greatly upheld by US aid. Greece had an old running quarrel with Turkey on borders in Thrake and in the Aegean.
Turkey is the 800 pound Gorilla in the Near/Middle East/Eastern Med with huge armed forces dwarfing everyone - not at the same time of course.
The other local heavyweigh is Israel which just the year before 1967 clobbered its Arab neighbours in a 6-day campaign. Even Iran isn't the power it was to be during the 1970' - 80's.

An interesting area is Latin-South America. A lot of the domestic policies without USA is going to change. Also food production is increasing signalling better times and population growth.
1919 USA may want to run the Western Hemisphere it's way though I doubt the 1968 nations are wanting any of this.
Britain, Netherlands and France are still holding colonies in Caribbea/South America:
British colonies - Belize, Anguilla, Bahamas, Bermuda, British Virgin Is., Cayman Is., Grenada, Domenica, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis.
Netherlands - Dutch Guiana, Aruba, Curacao, Sint Maarten.
France - French Guiana, Gouadaloupe, Martinique,

[575]

Since 1961 with the building of the Berlin Wall and closing of the border of the Workers and Farmers Republic (GDR) with the FRG peoples had been fleeing the GDR across the wall and the blue wall – the Baltic. In case of the latter mainly to Denmark as it was just 35 km/21 mi across. Even if the Lubeck Bay was much narrower it would have been guarded much more than the open sea.

With the USSR gone and the WAPA in upheaval of sorts more GDR citizens may try crossing the Baltic for Denmark leading to a inter-German political crisis as the human losses will rise in the attempts.

The FRG is led by Chancellor Kiesinger who during Nazi rule of Germany had been an official of the Foreign Office of which he was much critizised by the political left. However he ruled a Conservative – Socialdemocratic Coalition and was one of the highest poll rated Chancellors.
In this state I expect Kiesinger to interfere with the GDR handling of affairs which will reach loggerheads very soon – is NATO/EEC going to back this?

If he time it right he can keep a low rhetoric untill Mao go for border revision in Sibiria disguised as aid to the Communists of Russia. With Poland in the Russian Civil War and Czechoslovakia joining the EEC to boost economy – well what do the GDR regime do? They may well crackdown on unrest but without Soviet troops – and they didn't put down the 1953 uprising without Soviet aid the Regime know its dead meat. Its really a matter of time.

[575]

Mao well knew that with the Allied Intervention troops not present in Siberia it would only be a matter of time before the Red Army would move east to liberate all of Sibiria. He would have no problem patronizing the Far Eastern Republic but Soviet Union – forget about it.
Thus informing Ho Chi Mihn that aid would be slightly cut down mostly so in Aircraft and other military hardware and with the already cut-off Soviet supply through China Mihn would be on his own against the South Vietnamese who by now were on their own as the Americans had vanished and the South Koreans, Australians and New Zealanders had pulled out.
Mao would not waste any more resources on Mihn as he had a bigger fish to fry.

Commander Genrich Eicke of the 5 Red Army had been on the heels of the White troops since their withdrawal earlier during summer from Ufa towards the east. He soon had word that chinese troops as modern as the Poles in the west had entered Siberia north and west of Manchuria brushing all opposition aside.
Still he was going to move ahead to reoccupy former Russian territories notifying Moscow what was going on and informing of his intentions.

[stevep]

   Some interesting points there 575.

  I had forgotten to include Iran into the equation in Central Asia.  Its a lot closer to Baku than Turkey and even more so to Central Asia so the Shah could decide to throw his weight around.  True its a Shia majority state which will be an issue for some Sunnis but that's less an issue with the Shah in power and probably far less frightening compared to the Bolsheviks.  I could also see Georgia and even more so Armenia probably preferring Iranian rather than Turkish 'assistance' but whether Iran will go that far west would be an issue, especially with Turkey being part of NATO.

  The Czechs might want to become a part of NATO and the EEC but its still basically a communist state and that will be a concern on both economic and political levels.  Also both those bodies would be in some turmoil given world events.

  This would be especially so if W Germany sought to intervene in E Germany, even to try and stop an ongoing bloodbath.  W Germany would have the power to do that without the Soviets being present and especially since with ongoing violence and repression there many east Germans are likely to welcome them as liberators.  A politically independent Germany, especially with US intervention removed and which is probably going to end up absorbing E Germany - which isn't going to seem the basket case it was a couple of decades later - is going to cause a number of nations serious concerns in the rest of Europe.  This is going to complicate things drastically.  It could speed up or delay entry for Britain and other countries into the EEC.

  Chinese attacks on Siberia is likely to deepen concerns in NE Asia, especially in Japan and S Korea.  I could see Japan, deprived of a US covering force seeking to boost its own military and also possibly look for defensive alliances with Britain and/or France as both are surviving nuclear powers and also have some ability to protect power into the region.  I suspect that without US protection S Korea could be attacked and probably conquered by the north with the latter probably egged on by Mao.  Whether China might seek to complete 'unification' by conquering Taiwan and whether that would succeed could be a moot point.

[575]

Jan 12, 2024 18:32:49 GMT stevep said:

   Some interesting points there 575.

  I had forgotten to include Iran into the equation in Central Asia.  Its a lot closer to Baku than Turkey and even more so to Central Asia so the Shah could decide to throw his weight around.  True its a Shia majority state which will be an issue for some Sunnis but that's less an issue with the Shah in power and probably far less frightening compared to the Bolsheviks.  I could also see Georgia and even more so Armenia probably preferring Iranian rather than Turkish 'assistance' but whether Iran will go that far west would be an issue, especially with Turkey being part of NATO.

  The Czechs might want to become a part of NATO and the EEC but its still basically a communist state and that will be a concern on both economic and political levels.  Also both those bodies would be in some turmoil given world events.

  This would be especially so if W Germany sought to intervene in E Germany, even to try and stop an ongoing bloodbath.  W Germany would have the power to do that without the Soviets being present and especially since with ongoing violence and repression there many east Germans are likely to welcome them as liberators.  A politically independent Germany, especially with US intervention removed and which is probably going to end up absorbing E Germany - which isn't going to seem the basket case it was a couple of decades later - is going to cause a number of nations serious concerns in the rest of Europe.  This is going to complicate things drastically.  It could speed up or delay entry for Britain and other countries into the EEC.

  Chinese attacks on Siberia is likely to deepen concerns in NE Asia, especially in Japan and S Korea.  I could see Japan, deprived of a US covering force seeking to boost its own military and also possibly look for defensive alliances with Britain and/or France as both are surviving nuclear powers and also have some ability to protect power into the region.  I suspect that without US protection S Korea could be attacked and probably conquered by the north with the latter probably egged on by Mao.  Whether China might seek to complete 'unification' by conquering Taiwan and whether that would succeed could be a moot point.

Iran was markedly weaker than Turkey if we go by numbers but also by older equipment - Tanks and Aircraft. However I would expect Iran to say something in the case of Azerbajdjan should the Turks become interested in Baku. I don't expect NATO to back Turkey in its possible endeavours in Central Asia - Caucasus certainly not Baku unless it is in accord with NATO - Syria; Persia, Iraq, Cyprus and Greece will be another matter. Generally I don't expect NATO to approve of any Turk actions to the west or south. Nor Persia. Its just complicated!

An E German crisis and following German Unification would speed up British entry into EEC - France, Low Countries and Denmark at least would like that! An E German civil war may prompt FRG involvement - I really can't see any other outcome. The FRG can't just sit looking at the carnage. An OTL equivalent is of course preferable, but.

Japan will be quite unsettled if China moves on Russia - NorthernHemisphereTO? To admit NZ and OZ. Taiwan would be next applicant.