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Post by raharris1973 on Jan 19, 2024 3:41:15 GMT
What if all the metropolitan territory and home waters of France, the Low Countries, Denmark and Norway, is ISOT *forward* in time two years from early February 1940 to exactly two years later, early February 1942, replacing the Feb 1942, Axis occupied versions of those countries?
No extra trickery, no teleporting German occupying forces back home, or uptime Allied forces in to the liberated territories, territory from a particular point in time has the forces and population on it that makes sense for that time, pure and simple.
What are we looking forward to for campaign year 1942 in WWII here?
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575
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Post by 575 on Jan 19, 2024 9:37:54 GMT
What if all the metropolitan territory and home waters of France, the Low Countries, Denmark and Norway, is ISOT *forward* in time two years from early February 1940 to exactly two years later, early February 1942, replacing the Feb 1942, Axis occupied versions of those countries? No extra trickery, no teleporting German occupying forces back home, or uptime Allied forces in to the liberated territories, territory from a particular point in time has the forces and population on it that makes sense for that time, pure and simple. What are we looking forward to for campaign year 1942 in WWII here? Feb. 40 the Soviet Winter offensive is in full swing so may be difficult to move troops west to reoccupy/fight France and Low Countries - Denmark is the easy one just move available troops into it. Norway - is no go - Germany just lost the logistics basis for the troops in Northern Finland and a huge number of Luftwaffe bases. Without Kriegsmarine surface units and Airtransport units available its a non-starter. Also Sweden at this point is much stronger so possibly no allowing German troops to move through to Norway - certainly not as the Germans are hammered on the Eastern Front.
Britain have two Army Corps in France of 6 Infantry Divisions and the 1. Army Tank Brigade and some bits and pieces as well as the RAF Expeditionary Force of at least one Fighter and one Bomber Wing and a number of AA-units.
France have 2 DLM Armoured Divisions - Cavalry Corps, 2 DCR Armoured Divisions with one forming and the Cavalry haven't been reformed into Light Mechanised Divisions so is still 3 Cavalry Divisions and 2 Cavalry Brigades, Infantry have the Polish Infantry Divisions forming. This is less the 3. DLM Reserve Armoured Division it had 10 May 1940 and less 4. DLM. French Airforce is weaker than on 10 May 1940 though quite some aircraft is in North Africa in Vichy controlled area.
The Germans have lost 3 Infantry Divisions and an Infantry Regiment in Norway along a lot of lesser formations - coastaldefence and such. Luftwaffe losses are some 7 Coastal and Bomber Groups, 1 Fighter Group. In France and the Netherlands the two Armies have lost at least 4 Infantry Divisions, Luftwaffe 13 Bomber and 4 Fighter Groups. Figures taken and can be found here.Seems the majority of German troops is on the Eastern Front. Some troops may be moved from Balkans - 12. Army with 5 Infantry Divisions on the Continent and 2 Infantry Divisions and a Motorized Regiment in Crete. Difficult - or at least timeconsuming to identify formations in Germany.
With the Soviets tying down the majority of the German troops and a substantial Force within France Britain have to make some choices. Besides BEF there will now be a number of doubles from French, Dutch, Belgian, Danish, Norwegian, Polish, Czech expatriates that will have a chance to meet themselves. May get somewhat confusing. At least there is a firm alliance with the USA that even if not really militarily mobilized will have the industry gearing up substantially for the past couple of months. Some politics will have to be sorted out to make the French and other appeared "allies" understand what is going on and how to stop the upcoming German onslaught if it isn't possible to make the French really get out the foxhole though the situation with Vichy French forces in Africa and other parts of the World may help convince them of the situation. Perhaps the realities will make the French Army understand that its Air Doctrine is useless as the last year of war have served to this with huge city bombings.
The British ought to land in North Norway to deny the Germans retreating into it - several Divisions would be needed along RAF units; when the Norwegians have understood the realities - their King will have to talk himself of 1940 into it! North Africa have just taken on another role - it will be a defence not a place to waste resources on defeating Rommel.
Will expect Hitler and OKW to have some headache as to the use of troops once the Soviet Winter Offensive have been curbed around - end of March? Stalingrad can't be on the list. Italy have the majority of troops tied down in North Africa and Balkans and will be needed in NA as Vichy may declare for the legal French Government of 1940 thus threatening Libya.
German and Italian Submarines in the Atlantic no longer have their ports on the French coast to operate from and have been robbed of aerial reconnaisance over the Atlantic. The Murmansk Convoys have gotten a breather from German air and surface attacks. Tirpitz gone which will free the British of a major headache.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 19, 2024 12:35:02 GMT
Its going to be chaotic for everybody. Neither Britain nor the US are ready for any great offensive action as their reeling from the defeats occurring in the Far East and navy aside the US is still largely unready for war. The 1940 forces are sizeable, especially those in France [including the BEF] but outdated in both equipment and doctrine. Hitler and the Nazis are already in a bad way in the east and now have the shock of the loss of their western conquests, which also largely destroys the KM, which has the bulk of its forces either lost in the ISOT or now stranded in the Atlantic with no bases to return to west of Germany, an issue they could struggle to recover from even when they discover what's happened.
The other issue is the big economic blow for the German war machine and economy more broadly. No more loot from France and other locations in the west or other goods. Since its still winter Norway could be a big issue as I can't see the government when they learn what's happened - most likely initially from the Swedes and then their government in exile - you can forget about ore exports via Narvik.
One big issue is what happens with the Vichy overseas forces but I would expect they would fairly quickly link up with 1940 France. [Which may be less than happen with some British actions such as the attack on the French fleet and the occupation of French Syria and attacks on other areas but will have to get over it]. De Gaulle could have an interesting situation here as apart from there being two of him!! his position with regards to the French government could be rather precarious.
I would expect France and possibly most of Belgium to hold as Germany can't commit forces in the short term while Britain can't send a lot of troops it can apply a lot of air power and some better equipped units. Given the Maginot Line and that the Germans won't be able to surprise them with a thrust through the Ardennes. Denmark will be lost and I fear for the Netherlands however as that's too exposed a position for the available allied forces unless they take a risk in forward deploying a lot of 1940 units. Norway should hold especially given the destruction of the KM and stronger position of the RAF along with the fact the Norwegians shouldn't be taken by surprise here.
There is a complex position in N Africa as Britain defeated Rommel and relieved Tobruk but then had to start shipping forces east because of the Japanese attack. Coupled with the new commitments to France that are likely to occur here that means little further aid can be sent. As such British forces are over-extended and OTL a reinforced Axis managed to defeat them in detail and then nearly breaking through into the Nile valley in the 1st Battle of El Alamein. There are two basic questions. Does Rommel still get those reinforcements and does Vichy NA join with the French government in Paris? If the latter occurs can Rommel turn west against the French? Probably not with his limited forces and Britain could also possibly send some aid. If nothing else the French fleet and Force H operating from Oran and Tunis could be a serious problem for Italian supplies to Tripoli. Its very likely that Libya will be unable to provide a threat and will fall although possibly not until towards the end of the year due to other areas being higher priorities for the allies.
As said, after an initial round of slaughter off the US coast and parts of the Caribbean the U boats would be a significantly reduced threat for a while at least. While more boats are under construction their lost most of their existing units and even more importantly the experienced crews operating them. If the US stays lax there is the possibility of another round of attacks some time in the future but even then they would be operating from further east and having to pass through the channel or around the N Sea, reducing their range and exposing them to a significant amount of interdiction. Plus even if the US doesn't keep up with escort vessel construction Britain probably will so the problem will be manageable. Similarly with the surface vessels the ISOT has removed the twins and CA Prince Eugen as they were in France and Tirpitz which had recently arrived in Norway at this time so only a couple of the 'pocket battleships' are left of the heavy units of the Germans surface fleet. As such any attempted operations outside the Baltic are going to be very risky.
Germany can't apply significant forces to the west until the spring at the earliest and even then only by withdrawing forces from the east - where most are already under strength - or the Balkans where again there are relatively few German units and a lot of unrest. Their army is in a better position in terms of ISOT losses than the LW or KM. However its going to take a lot of effort to build up new units and equip them, especially given the loss of industrial resources from the west, including a lot of forced labour, albeit you could see earlier and larger use of eastern slave labour. Plus with the French securely on the upper Rhine and much of the lower level at least for the moment in Dutch control their lost that as a waterway for economic activity. With the probability of allied a/c being based in large numbers in eastern France and also possibly Britain persuades France to allow the mining of the Rhine Germany is going to face serious difficulties.
Its possible that once the spring mud comes in the east Germany can pull back enough forces for a major attack into France but that would leave the denuded forces in the east vulnerable to future Soviet offenses. You might see even more of the line there held by allied forces from Hungary, Romania and Italy - although the latter could be insisting on the return of some of their forces with a revived France on its border and the probable loss of Libya and threats to Sicily. As such this would be a hell of a risk and by no means certain to succeed, while it makes a hell of a gamble in the east and also requires Hitler to abandon his desire for conquests there.
The other two big uncertainties are the US and Japan? Does the US make a bigger effort in Europe as there is now a worthwhile use for significant American ground forces and how much can they send and how quickly? How does Japan react to the sudden and very strange events in Europe. Does it get even more aggressive against the allies - whether to try and take pressure off the Germans or simply because they think the allies will be weaker with forces diverted to the new opportunities in Europe? If they do get more aggressive would it be mainly against Britain, against the US in the Pacific or towards Australia once their fully secured the DEI and Philippines. Or given the nature of the Japanese military they try and do several/all of those?
As 575 says there are going to be a hell of a lot of people duplicated because they were outside the restored lands in Feb 42 - whether due to leaving to fight elsewhere or because their been taken as labourers or prisoners into the Reich. [The bulk of the 1940 French army for instance as they were held as POWs throughout the war mainly in Germany I believe]. Its going to be most dramatic with some of the political and military leaders affected.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jan 20, 2024 6:49:51 GMT
Also Sweden at this point is much stronger so possibly no allowing German troops to move through to Norway Maybe not for assaults on unoccupied ground, but against 1942 levels of Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe strength, and Swedish preps, I think the Swedes will still engage in a good bit of appeasement on the economic front, and logistical movement of Germans between multiple Axis occupied points without interning personnel. The Swedes still do *not* want to get bombed or occupied and don't have much reason yet to be sure about a prompt Western Allied rescue capacity. French Airforce is weaker than on 10 May 1940 though quite some aircraft is in North Africa in Vichy controlled area. Interesting issues for the Vichy French- with a government in metro France that is standing tall resisting, they should automatically snap out of collaboration mode, while still not deferring to Monsieur De Gaulle. They should be ready to commit their aircraft to defense of France, but their North African forces will also become a new threat to the rear of Rommel and the Italo-German Afrika Korps. Besides BEF there will now be a number of doubles from French, Dutch, Belgian, Danish, Norwegian, Polish, Czech expatriates that will have a chance to meet themselves. May get somewhat confusing. At least there is a firm alliance with the USA that even if not really militarily mobilized will have the industry gearing up substantially for the past couple of months. Yes to all this. Some politics will have to be sorted out to make the French and other appeared "allies" understand what is going on and how to stop the upcoming German onslaught if it isn't possible to make the French really get out the foxhole Step one: get basic multichannel radio sets to all front line French units, then start providing them for free to the Belgians and Dutch. though the situation with Vichy French forces in Africa and other parts of the World may help convince them of the situation. Perhaps the realities will make the French Army understand that its Air Doctrine is useless as the last year of war have served to this with huge city bombings. ...and while scolding them with doctrine, equip them (and train them up) on some of the now more numerous American and British airframes coming out of the factories, and send over veteran pilots with aircraft to help. Agreed on both - importance of securing Norwegian cape, and restraint in North Africa, in light of other priorities in France. The British ought to land in North Norway to deny the Germans retreating into it - several Divisions would be needed along RAF units; when the Norwegians have understood the realities - their King will have to talk himself of 1940 into it! North Africa have just taken on another role - it will be a defence not a place to waste resources on defeating Rommel.
The other two big uncertainties are the US and Japan? Does the US make a bigger effort in Europe as there is now a worthwhile use for significant American ground forces and how much can they send and how quickly? Europe all the way for the USA, or almost. Jam forces, air and ground, into France as soon as they emerge trained and equipped from the training camps and flying schools. France is really the global fulcrum of the struggle against Germany, that will really determine if the German war will be a shorter war, or a longer war. That certainly limits what can be sent to the Pacific, but the tyranny of distance limits Allied effectiveness levels in the Pacific anyway, and ultimately, the bigger Japan grows, the harder it falls. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Jan 20, 2024 11:16:47 GMT
Also Sweden at this point is much stronger so possibly no allowing German troops to move through to Norway Maybe not for assaults on unoccupied ground, but against 1942 levels of Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe strength, and Swedish preps, I think the Swedes will still engage in a good bit of appeasement on the economic front, and logistical movement of Germans between multiple Axis occupied points without interning personnel. The Swedes still do *not* want to get bombed or occupied and don't have much reason yet to be sure about a prompt Western Allied rescue capacity. Depending upon how things develop - what will the Germans direct through Sweden, from Denmark and when are the British going to land in Norway? The Germans have lost most of the Kriegsmarine and will have to go from Finland which the Finn's may not be too enthusiastic about. Also the Germans are tied down on the Eastern Front - not many assets to carry aggression through against Sweden - if it isn't from Finland then it would be from German Baltic areas. I don't see such being a starter having looked up everything down to DD's: Available ships Feb 42 - CA Adm. Scheer, Adm. Hipper, CL Emden, Leipzig, one Z-Class DD. Edit: forgot the 2 pre-Dreadnoughts Schleswig-Holstein and Schlesien.
CA Lützow undergoing repairs, CL Nürnberg undergoing refit untill Aug 42 Köln under repairs, 6 DDs under repairs, 10 unbuild at this time, 12 DD being in France or Norway at ISOT. The winters of WWII were really cold not just on the East Front but all around Europe including Scandinavia - it was possible several times to cross the Oeresound on foot during those years. The winter of 1941-42 hit Denmark during January and lingered on for 3 months. In Sweden during February 42 which happens to be the coldest winter recorded ever 300,000 troops were mobilized for stationing in Norrland as the Germans were building up a logistics base in North Norway for operations in Finland - local temperature -31C. Winter continued as in Denmark into April.
Scania April 1942
If the Germans should decide for invading Sweden they may have to wait - due to weather with sea ice in place untill May - several months. I don't really see the Germans in North Finland turn around with the Soviets on their heels to attack Sweden.
The Swedes doesn't want to get bombed but they were subjected to a minor Soviet bombing of Stockholm 22 February 1942.
August 1943 the transports through Sweden ends due to the German Strategic situation.
Trainloads of rations, medic equipment and personnel may be allowed untill the Allies are in place in Norway - post that and depending on Allied will to support Sweden it may well decide to stop transports to Finland. Not a given but very much a possible. And backed up by an additional 300,000 troops.
Economic - Narvik may soon be a closed port to any shipments going to Germany. Luleå on the Botnian Bay isn't open for shipping during winter and the Swedes are still working on rebuilding the railway south from the Ore Railway to Ystad - the existing one isn't scaled for Narvik or Luleå directed ore transports.
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575
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Post by 575 on Jan 20, 2024 12:11:33 GMT
Swedish Airforce as of 1 December 1941 hereThe 2. "Regiment" is Naval aviation - 12 Modern Heinkel He 115 Torpedobombers, 9 Hawker Osprey Float biplanes aboard the Aircraft Cruiser "Gotland", 15 He 5 old Floatplanes, 11 He 114 Float biplanes. Airforce is the other "Regiments" totalling 36 Reconnaisance: 24 Fokker C-V biplanes, 6 modern Fieseler Fi-156 Storck, 6 modern Caproni Ca 313. 126+30 Bombers: 42 Junkers Ju 86 Bombers/Reconnaisance, 4 Hawker Hart biplane light bombers that had performed well during the Winter War against the Soviets, 80 Northrop 8A-1 light bombers, 30 Caproni Ca 313 bombers undergoing maintenance/rebuilding. 126 Fighters: 34 Gloster Gladiator biplane fighters, 45 Seversky EP-1/upgraded P-35, 45 Fiat CR 42 biplane fighters, 2 Reggiane Re2000 fighters. 12 NA-16 advanced trainers, 100? basic trainers. Not extremely impressive in regard to Luftwaffe of 1942. |
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575
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Post by 575 on Jan 20, 2024 13:37:26 GMT
Swedish Navy WWII - everything termed 1942+ isn't to be included at ISOT:  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 20, 2024 13:48:57 GMT
The reason there's a possibility that the US would commit more of their military to the Pacific than OTL is that combined with the shock and embarrassment of the Pearl Harbour attack and loss of Wake, Guam and the impending loss of the Philippines is that Germany would probably look a lot less threatening than OTL. Not only are they reeling from the Soviet counter offensive - albeit still established deep inside the USSR - but the sudden reappearance of much of western Europe freed of Nazi control and resultant German losses is going to make them look vulnerable. You could see a lot of people, both former isolationists and those enraged at the Japanese attack arguing that the Europeans, given this 2nd chance can handle the Nazis with minimal US direct military intervention. Possibly the most likely to be interested in involvement in Europe would be the AAF as it gives them a chance of demonstrating their argument for strategic bombing.
I'm not saying the US will send no forces to Europe but there could be a lot of pressure for the main US effort to be with "our war" in the Pacific. There is going to be supplies and especially probably equipment to upgrade the French 1940 and other western democracies that avoid a quick Nazi reconquest.
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