What happens to world history if ASBs teleport the Gallic Empire & Palmyrene empires to the mid-Paci

[raharris1973]

What happens to world history if ASBs teleport the Gallic Empire & Palmyrene (sans Egypt) empires to the mid-Pacific, during the 3rd Century Crisis?

Here is a map. It dulls the clarity and color more than I'd like and required cropping to get down to a small enough file size to attach, but it illustrates what is removed from Roman Europe and deposited in the Central Pacific.

What is removed is the Gallic Empire, at its height, when it controlled all Roman Gaul, plus all Roman Britain, plus all Roman Spain. I wanted to land it elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, as far as possible from its original location, to wreck chances of contact in any near or medium term, and to minimize chances of this teleported Britain-Gaul-Spain landmass from being within feasible sailing distance of any other landmass, especially Asia (including Japan) or North America. It may be somewhat closer to parts of Polynesia or Micronesia, but is still far, even from them. To prevent easy connection with North America's Alaska via a hop from Britain to the Aleutians, or from the Kommandorski islands to Kamchatka and the Kuriles to Japan, I also placed Britannia-Gallia-Hispania several degrees south of its original latitude. You get the picture of how it lines up with Japan/Korea, China and Taiwan. This should also keep the landmasses warm to mild across the board as well.

Finally, it can be viewed on both sides of this map display. The full view of it on the far eastern edge, and eastern Gallia and Hispania on the far western edge. To make "room" for this landmass and avoid over-writing land that would have been in the space, the ASBs also just vertically "flipped" the Hawaiian archipelago from the big island of Hawaii to Midway island along its original longitudes but down to the southern hemisphere.

The other geographic teleportation detail however is that I also had the ASB take the Palmyrene Empire, dominated by the rebellion/conquest of Zenobia, and teleported her lands from the Mediterranean to the Pacific as well. I kept their position relative to Western Europe constant, so these lands are also rendered more southern, hotter, and "tropical" in literal definition. These teleported lands include southeastern Anatolia, Syria, Lebanon/Phoenicia, Palestine/Petra/Jordan, northwest Arabia, and Sinai. I deliberately excluded Egypt, which she ruled for a period, because I did not want to screw over the flows of the Nile, nor this important Roman Empire food supply. You only see the teleported Levantine Empire of Palmyra on the western side of the global map, west of Mexico. However you interpret the shapes, let's just say the teleportation leaves behind any land necessary to contain the banks of the Euphrates and Tigris in its original location. The rivers of Mesopotamia will still work. The eastern Mediterranean is now wide open to the Red Sea, unobstructed. That is conducive to Roman trade with Ethiopia and Yemen and India. The Bab El-Mandeb is an unobstructed, natural passage way to the Indian Ocean, so quite a game change for human trade, and marine life, despite it being narrow. The Bab El-Mandeb will certainly be seen as a highly strategic chokepoint in the centuries ahead.



Meanwhile, the western Mediterranean is now directly open to the Atlantic, although for Italy, and the regions of Carthage, Tunis and Algier, the Balearics, Corsica, and Sardinia function somewhat like barrier islands.

How does history proceed from 250 AD-ish globally with the new continental and oceanic formations?

Rome (central) lost a lot of legions, albeit rebellious ones, with the Gallic Empire, but I imagine it should still be able to recover and reintegrate the eastern lands temporarily lost to the Palmyrene empire. It seems to me like Rome should have every chance to make a 4th century recovery, and while Spain and Gaul likely provided break even or surplus value, with the Italian core and North Africa, plus the most valuable eastern territories, the Roman Empire has a solidly restored tax base. It no longer has Britain as a defensive liability either.

As I noted, Rome luckily keeps the Egyptian breadbasket. It does lose some Western Asian lands, productive in grain, cedar, horses, other products and crafts with the loss of Levant and Syria, in addition to losing some desert. There is a bit of a mercantile and revenue hit, and a loss in Legions stationed there. But this is largely offset by a drastic shortening of the land border with Persia, which is now shorter, more mountainous, more easily defensible terrain where eastern Anatolia and Armenia meet.

However, the Roman Empire will still be vulnerable to climate change (cooling) - although the Gulf Stream may increase the warming of areas around the North Sea a bit relative to where they were OTL, exchange of Eurasian pandemics, and pressure from invaders on long borders like the Danube and the Persian.

I think the Western, or European, portion of the empire has a high likelihood of being undermined with Barbarian Foederati moving in, breaking away from Roman political control, and taking over supreme political control for themselves in many, many areas. The Goths and Huns should still be coming, and other Germanic groups, and Alans, and the Danube does not seem like much of a barrier to me.

Conditions may be less conducive to the spread, or at least domination, of Christianity in rump Rome/Europe, with such primary Christian centers as the Levant and southeastern Asia Minor absent. The disappearance of the Biblical Holy Cities will certainly have to be interpreted. At the same time, there were active, robust communities of Christians by this point in Egypt, other parts of Asia Minor, Greece, and Rome, and they may be up for some adaptable prophetic interpretation. Post-collapse of the WRE, although the Atlantic waters corridoring/funnelling into the Mediterranean Sea will be rough waters requiring hardy boats and sailors, it seems logical that seaborne trade between Italy, North Africa, Greece, and coastal Germany, Netherlands, and Denmark/Jutland should be easier in this TL than with the OTL "obstructions" of West European land. Some of this extra sea commerce may develop in medieval/"dark ages" times at the expense of Alpine trading routes. Going from the Mediterranean or Europe all the way to Hibernia/Ireland, or Alba/Pictland, will be a much further, more dangerous, and rarer journey, likely to leave those islands more culturally isolated from European developments for longer. If, as I assume, the Christianization trend overtakes Rome and its neighborhood, it may be delayed several centuries for these now distant islands.

Going over to the cast-off, exiled Gallic Empire, it will have a surplus of military manpower, and a deficit of external military threat, that will make for painful demobilization, and probably result in several rounds of civil wars, internal splits, and coups, before a military system is appropriately rationalized to the geography and economy of the land. Despite the presence of some Jews and Christians, especially in Hispania, Christian domination of this empire becomes far less likely in the absence of continued outside influences in the new religion's favor. Much of the land should remain fertile, with weather in most parts mild, if not warm.

Unlike the main body of the Roman Empire, the Gallic Empire, mid-Pacific edition, will be separated from the Eurasian disease pool for centuries and quite possibly a millenium or more. So it will miss multiple Old World plagues like the plague of Justinian. It can have some smaller homegrown variants perhaps of some harsh diseases making leaps from insects, rodents, or livestock like chickens, pigs, cattle or sheep, but it simply won't compare with Eurasia.

However, as disease generally fails to check population growth, and fertility and increased fishing support it, overpopulation will become an issue in centuries ahead, and other Malthusian checks, notably famine and human strife at least, will inevitably come into play to bring population back in to balance. The longer the Gallic Empire's recontact with Eurasian peoples is delayed, the more "naive" their immune systems will be to more highly developed Eurasian diseases, which will be a major weakness in any encounter.

The cast-off Palmyrene Empire will be isolated from many trade partners, forcing economic simplification. About as much of it should remain fertile as was fertile in real life in the centuries ahead. It will likely face a reprieve from Eurasian disease burdens while out of contact, but suffer the same growing immune naivety, and it will be highly vulnerable however to other Malthusian pressure from overpopulation and related deforestation and overgrazing. Christianity is poised to become hegemonic in this landmass rather soon. If there is a fortuitous religiously sanctified adaptation to environmental change, the Christian Church may luck and adopt some semi-Hindu, pro-vegetarian rules to discourage consumption of meat or excessive herds of animals particularly deleterious to precious topsoil, to help preserve grain land.

An uncertainty is when the Palmyrene LEvant would come into contact with other landmasses. For instance, the Gallic landmass, which it is no further away from than before, but it is not aware of and now has open ocean without the same land and celestial navigation points in between. On the other side is Mexico. The Levant is closer to Mexico than Hawaii is, but still quite distant with only a few, extremely tiny, islands in between.

[stevep]

   Good summary of the situation and resulting problems and opportunities.

  As you say those actions are going to be seen as divine intervention by all three parties - and others - but by which god/gods and whether as a favourable or hostile sign will be a matter of debate by the people's involved.

  In terms of the main empire it could depend on how its reunited and whether the loss of the rebel lands prompt further internal conflict or possibly a sign from the gods that unity is needed.  I'm more confident than you that - assuming it reunites as quickly as OTL - it could have a longer existence as a fairly unified state.  A lot of territory has been lost bit except in the east its not massively wealthy, although probably a disproportionate amount of recruits come from the western lands lost.  However its also lost a lot of burdens and dangerous frontiers.  There's now a relatively narrow section dominated by the Alps and then the long path of the Danube - with assorted mountains and other rough terrain - from which attacks can come.  Also the loss of those lands mean no need to spend resources on retaking them so a powerful emperor will be able to concentrate on internal security, regaining Egypt and also securing the new and much shorter border with the Sasanids.  This will probably mean the permanent loss of the upper Mesopotamia region as Iran has a much easier access to it now.

  I think the key thing would be the reaction to the event and also then to the new climatic conditions, especially the addition sea access and resultant storms for much of the western Med.  Its going to give a strong incentive for changes in naval designs but whether the rather conservative Roman empire can adjust faster than the assorted other, 'barbarian' races.  IIRC the previous century saw the Goths, then based in the current Ukraine region raiding both around the Black Sea but also into the Aegean. 

  If the empire can adjust to different sea conditions however that definitely opens up new opportunities.  Both in terms of the eastern trade and somewhat easier trade with India and points eastwards and also possibly the less developed northern states.  It might be that the new territory between the Gaulish sea and the Rhine could be significant here as a powerful emperor could seek to regain that region, although it would also be a burden.

  Its going to complicate matters in the northern regions as the Anglo-Saxons have no England to settle unless they go much further norther into Pictish territory and possibly Ireland while the Franks, Burgundians, Alemaine, Vandals  etc can only go south either through the Alpine passes or SE into the Balkan regions so you might see greater pressure on the border there or less because the assorted groups are busy fighting each other for territory.

  I'm also uncertain whether a victory for Christianity here is that likely.  It has a strong base in Egypt yes but that could mean it gets associated with rebellions there.  The Levant core has gone - although there will be significant eastern Christians in the Iranian empire, which could mean its seen as a foreign religion.  The Pope will seek to press his claim for pre-emphenence with Antioch and Jerusalem gone but that's likely to be challenge by Alexandria.  If internal unity - albeit on a smaller scale - and there are no great Iranian or barbarian attacks its going to be harder to upset the status quo.

  The big uncertainty would be the impact of the changes on the climate and biological nature of both the rump empire and surrounding lands.

  For the Gallic Empire a lot would depend on the details but its going to have to give up on any claims towards a Rome that has now disappeared, as has the assorted threatening border.  Its likely to be hit harder than Rome by the isolation and the resulting climatic and biological changes.  Its a long way from anywhere and unless a significant coastal shelf comes along and is added in eastern reaches that could complicate fishing and other coastal activities.  As with Rome - which I forgot to mention there's going to be some deep and probably unstable cliffs on former land borders which will make it difficult to access the sea in many of those regions until there are landslides.  I'm not sure whether their on any hot spots but if not their probably safe from major volcanic and earthquake problems although more distant ones could prompt tsunami problems at least occasionally and the locals will have no warnings of such events.

  Overall with a more southern latitude and being a largish island - with a smaller one for Roman Britain - surrounded by ocean that should make for a warmer climate and also probably a wetter one in the former landlocked eastern parts and parts of southern Iberia. 

  I don't know if anyone will be wise enough to tell anything about their location by studying the stars and the position of the planets?  That might prompt some idea of where they are compared to their old position and possibly an earlier cementing of a spherical planet rather than a flat one.

  For the Palmyrene Empire the loss of Egypt will hurt, along with probably eastern parts of Syria and parts of SE Anatolia to maintain the Euphrates as you wanted.  Possibly even more given the importance of trade historically the loss of all contract with their neighbours is going to hit hard.  It does mean no threat from Rome, Iran or assorted desert tribes but much of the income of the elite especially will be affected.  On the plus side if the region and its crops can adjust to the new climate it should be significantly wetter, especially in its eastern lands so increased agricultural production could occur at least in the short term.  Although how long that would last in the face of possible population growth would be uncertain.

  I'm not sure, while there were great ports and a strong naval history in some areas, whether they could seek to find other lands as most of the ships would be designed more for the enclosed and hence more benign Med than a great ocean like the Pacific.  However as with the Gallic empire its likely to be a long time before they come into contact with anyone, possibly at worst not until the Polynesians arrive - although depending on how the Gallic and Palmyrene  state have developed or degraded a fair amount could happen in that interaction.

  Given the longer history of advanced civilisation in the Levant region - albeit probably degraded somewhat by recent warfare - there might be more chances of astronomers from here rather than the Gallic empire getting some idea of their position and hence how far away they are from their former homes.  This would of course require a decent idea of the size of the globe although some good approximations were made during the Greek classic and Ptolemaic/Seleucid period.

  Agree that this is the most likely land to see Christianity take over, especially given the probably general chaos and uncertainty due to the change and the loss of contact with the outside world.  If so by the time it comes into contact with other Abrahamic states its likely to have a significantly different culture and view of the world to other Jews and Christians. 

  Rest of the World - assorted idea that come to mind.

The north  - As I mentioned above a lot of north and central Europe will be impacted by the changes which could see a fair number of historical tribes disappearing earlier than OTL.  Although possibly that could lead to one or two great tribal empires emerging.  Whether they will have much impact when the Huns probably come calling would be of some doubt however given how the powerful Gothic kingdom was swept aside OTL but there could be some significant butterflies.  Its also likely to stay non-Christian longer even if that religion comes to rule the empire.

  Iran - In the immediate east it also has big impacts on the Sassanids in the Iranian empire.  Their western border is pretty much secure now and they even have an western coastline now on the Med but Iran doesn't seem to have really been a naval orientated nation so probably that's not going to be significant for them.  They do have options, when there are friendly relations with a Roman empire for trade up the Euphrates and then across a relatively narrow section of land to the Med.  However if Rome can improve their merchant shipping, and there was some trade with India and the like in earlier centuries the Romans could find it easier to trade by the sea route themselves.

  On the negative side their lost any chance of claiming the rich lands of the Levant, which are simply no longer there and access to Anatolia is going to be more difficult with the Armenian mountains in the way.  It does mean a more secure western border as well but could mean the Sassanids try looking eastwards more, either into central Asia or even India?  Or possibly they might look south earlier with interest in Oman and through it to the relatively wealthy Yemen region, which would also potentially allow then to hinder Roman attempts to bypass them when it comes to trade with the east.

  It could also complicate issues religiously as a significant portion of eastern Christians along with other older Mesopotamian religions are going to be minorities in the Sassanid empire and could face hostility from the dominant Zoroastrian faith in the empire.  This did happen OTL when Christianity became the dominant faith in the Roman empire.

  Arabia - What impact here is difficult to say.  Some moderation of climate in the north possibly with the Levant area removed and different relations with both a more distant Rome and more likely the Sassanids and Axum.  The big question here, with the core Christian and Jewish religious sites gone is does something like Islam emerge?  If so its going to have markedly greater problems expanding westward with a sizeable stretch of water between it and Egypt - along with probably a significant navy belonging to Rome or any successor patrolling it.  Also access to Anatolia would be more difficult.  Its also unlikely that they would have the luck of OTL with both Rome and Iran having exhausted themselves with a decades long war that exhausted both nations.  As such any such push east could be more difficult under those circumstances.  I have seen it suggested you might have seen a wave of Arabic warriors coming out of Arabia even without Islam emerging as the collapse of some big dams in Yemen caused a lot of instability but that would also have problems and would be more transient in character without a separate religious identity to both drive it and maintain its separate from earlier cultures.  No or a greatly reduced Islam, especially if it was kept out of the Iranian plateau would be a massive butterfly in itself for the entire world.

  Anyway its getting late and that's all that comes to mind for the moment.  Some very interesting possibilities here even if neither of the displaced empires manage to establish links with anywhere else and are isolated for centuries, which seems likely.

[raharris1973]

About 500 years after the big event, so 750 AD by the Christian calendar, which probably is not an important calendar in the Pacific Gallic Empire (but probably *is* in the land of the leftover Roman Empire or successor states), how "Imperial" and "Roman" looking is the culture, art, economy, architecture, society, military, and political system or organization and level of urbanization versus how "Medieval" and "Feudal" is it all looking?

[stevep]

Feb 2, 2024 2:23:27 GMT raharris1973 said:

About 500 years after the big event, so 750 AD by the Christian calendar, which probably is not an important calendar in the Pacific Gallic Empire (but probably *is* in the land of the leftover Roman Empire or successor states), how "Imperial" and "Roman" looking is the culture, art, economy, architecture, society, military, and political system or organization and level of urbanization versus how "Medieval" and "Feudal" is it all looking?

  I would say that depending on their level of interaction with other nations the Gallic empire is probably most likely to look like 'classical' imperial Rome.  With little or know interaction with other cultures its not facing the same pressures as other areas.  If it does make contact with say Japan and east Asia their possibly not massively too different to ancient Rome and contact is likely to be limited to a few traders and the like.  I could see ideas like Buddhism and elements of Japanese/Chinese ancestor-worship and possibly Confucius could fit more in with Grecco-Roman culture.  This assumes of course that the sudden and dramatic isolationism and the fact that after a generation or two its clear its not returning to the previous world doesn't prompt drastic cultural change which could be a false assumption.

  The Palmyrene Empire is less Roman anyway and is even more isolated so I would expect markedly more eastern influences in its culture.  Of course if they make contact with the Gallic empire or American cultures due to changes prompting considerably improved maritime culture things could then change drastically.

  I would expect the rump empire to change a fair bit since its both lost a lot of land and people and possibly even more importantly are in constant contact with multiple cultures, military, religious, trading etc.  As such their under more pressure to change to meet new challenges or to see drastic changes/collapses if they fail to do so in an efficient enough manner.  Traditional Roman culture and ideas were very efficient for them in earlier years but already faltering after 180AD at the latest, leading to the 3rd century crisis so things would be expected to continue to change.  What ways this goes depends on the circumstances so a lot of different cultures could be possible.

[raharris1973]

Feb 2, 2024 17:02:18 GMT stevep said:

  The Palmyrene Empire is less Roman anyway and is even more isolated so I would expect markedly more eastern influences in its culture.

Well, I think a layer of Romanitas would remain, but a substrate of Hellenism would be even stronger, and below that, sub-strata of Judaism, Syro-Aramaism, Arabism, and Anatolic cultures would be part of the mix. As well as the latest, exciting addition, Christianity.

Feb 2, 2024 17:02:18 GMT stevep said:

I would expect the rump empire to change a fair bit since its both lost a lot of land and people and possibly even more importantly are in constant contact with multiple cultures, military, religious, trading etc.  As such their under more pressure to change to meet new challenges or to see drastic changes/collapses if they fail to do so in an efficient enough manner.  Traditional Roman culture and ideas were very efficient for them in earlier years but already faltering after 180AD at the latest, leading to the 3rd century crisis so things would be expected to continue to change.  What ways this goes depends on the circumstances so a lot of different cultures could be possible.

All valid observations. I'm just wondering about the comparison and contrast of this TL's "dark ages"/medieval, 750-1100 AD Italy, Germany, Poland, Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia, Greece would compare with OTL's.

[575]

Somewhat late - but better then never.
As stevep point to I also find that both Gaul and Palmyra will have more wet climate in areas which will make for larger agricultural output. Parts of Gaul empire mainly so the British Isle part - wine growing may have a rivival.
You write Hawaii is moved south but what about the Hot-spot forming Hawaii? Still in place to provide some impression on the arrivees - a thread stone to Palmyra or moved along into Polynesia?

Roman NA and Egypt safe from invasion from the East across the enlarged Red Sea. The Romans had major ports on the western bank of Red Sea for trade from the Indian Ocean/Erythean Periplus with India, Makan etc. The Omani's are still in place to furnish trade so that may endure and possibly lend some seafaring tech to Rome - possibly.
Palmyra OTOH also had tradeports on the eastern bank of Red Sea some may have somebody with seafaring skills come along for the ride to make possible landfall in Central America and Gaul. The Antique World well knew/thought of the World as spherical - perhaps the educated specialist's at least so they Gaul possibly and Palmyra more possibly may be able to deduct where on Earth they have moved.
Some legionaires of Gaul may be happy to see their time of service cut down and be able to settle as farmers.

This is during 3 century so I don't think Christianity is as massive as the two of you. The Pope may be in Rome but there's a Patriach in Alexandria. Palmyra also have one in Antioch. However the Christians may interpret the event as the Apocalypse happening - and then what? I expect a different religion coming out of this also to no fuel some Arab into creating his own impression of it ITTL - Islam of course. In the Empire the Emperor still is the major religious figure even at time a God himself so Christians are in much less power even if some part of elite confess to it.

Something rather important in Germania - the Rhine is gone and all its tributaries are flowing into the Ocean. They may develop more seafaring boats/ships earlier or improve on Roman other existing designs. As late as 516 the Danes must have been rowing to Frisia but this may change now as they too have a different water to the West.

The great chaos of the Hun's are still to happen and the Germanic Wars will carry on but the Romans have a much shorter border in the East so may be able to fend of intruders as they were for quite some time. The northwestern Alpine coast of the West may be somewhat "interesting" as stevep pointed to with the rocks settling in places but in the end the Germanics will sail around it and land in Italy. With no Rhine border a lot of the pressure will move south with of course a lot of in-fighting among the Germanics themselves - though if it levels off with less Roman mileage to defend..

Before getting to 750 there is 536-40 to consider. Depending upon changed weather over Northern Europe the former Med might not be as had hit was it was or it may get worse - I'm not a metheorologist so don't know of the implications. The Sky over the Med got all blacked out OTL for almost 1½ years with resultant famine and pestilence.
A change due to it may have been the control in the West by Bishops of cities and the Pope getting power in Rome worked out with the Emperor in the East. With a different Christianity such may come out way different.

Gaul and Palmyra will also be hit by this in some way as was both China and the Maya's.

With a lesser Christianity hit by the Apocalypse twice in 250 years of its early days the Greco-Roman world and religious ways may stay in force longer.
No Islam to invade the sudden drought ridden borderlands of the Arabs.

With Bab-el-Mandeb a crucial chokepoint in the Indian Ocean trade both Romans and Sassanids may want to control that though I expect the Sassanids may have to ally with or control the Omanis to have a second actually primary route there with so much desert to traverse along the Arab Peninsular. The Romans on the other hand will be sitting on the western shore of the Red Sea once they have re-conquered Egypt so may win the initial race.

[stevep]

Feb 3, 2024 9:44:58 GMT 575 said:

Somewhat late - but better then never.
As stevep point to I also find that both Gaul and Palmyra will have more wet climate in areas which will make for larger agricultural output. Parts of Gaul empire mainly so the British Isle part - wine growing may have a rivival.
You write Hawaii is moved south but what about the Hot-spot forming Hawaii? Still in place to provide some impression on the arrivees - a thread stone to Palmyra or moved along into Polynesia?

Roman NA and Egypt safe from invasion from the East across the enlarged Red Sea. The Romans had major ports on the western bank of Red Sea for trade from the Indian Ocean/Erythean Periplus with India, Makan etc. The Omani's are still in place to furnish trade so that may endure and possibly lend some seafaring tech to Rome - possibly.
Palmyra OTOH also had tradeports on the eastern bank of Red Sea some may have somebody with seafaring skills come along for the ride to make possible landfall in Central America and Gaul. The Antique World well knew/thought of the World as spherical - perhaps the educated specialist's at least so they Gaul possibly and Palmyra more possibly may be able to deduct where on Earth they have moved.
Some legionaires of Gaul may be happy to see their time of service cut down and be able to settle as farmers.

This is during 3 century so I don't think Christianity is as massive as the two of you. The Pope may be in Rome but there's a Patriach in Alexandria. Palmyra also have one in Antioch. However the Christians may interpret the event as the Apocalypse happening - and then what? I expect a different religion coming out of this also to no fuel some Arab into creating his own impression of it ITTL - Islam of course. In the Empire the Emperor still is the major religious figure even at time a God himself so Christians are in much less power even if some part of elite confess to it.

Something rather important in Germania - the Rhine is gone and all its tributaries are flowing into the Ocean. They may develop more seafaring boats/ships earlier or improve on Roman other existing designs. As late as 516 the Danes must have been rowing to Frisia but this may change now as they too have a different water to the West.

The great chaos of the Hun's are still to happen and the Germanic Wars will carry on but the Romans have a much shorter border in the East so may be able to fend of intruders as they were for quite some time. The northwestern Alpine coast of the West may be somewhat "interesting" as stevep pointed to with the rocks settling in places but in the end the Germanics will sail around it and land in Italy. With no Rhine border a lot of the pressure will move south with of course a lot of in-fighting among the Germanics themselves - though if it levels off with less Roman mileage to defend..

Before getting to 750 there is 536-40 to consider. Depending upon changed weather over Northern Europe the former Med might not be as had hit was it was or it may get worse - I'm not a metheorologist so don't know of the implications. The Sky over the Med got all blacked out OTL for almost 1½ years with resultant famine and pestilence.
A change due to it may have been the control in the West by Bishops of cities and the Pope getting power in Rome worked out with the Emperor in the East. With a different Christianity such may come out way different.

Gaul and Palmyra will also be hit by this in some way as was both China and the Maya's.

With a lesser Christianity hit by the Apocalypse twice in 250 years of its early days the Greco-Roman world and religious ways may stay in force longer.
No Islam to invade the sudden drought ridden borderlands of the Arabs.

With Bab-el-Mandeb a crucial chokepoint in the Indian Ocean trade both Romans and Sassanids may want to control that though I expect the Sassanids may have to ally with or control the Omanis to have a second actually primary route there with so much desert to traverse along the Arab Peninsular. The Romans on the other hand will be sitting on the western shore of the Red Sea once they have re-conquered Egypt so may win the initial race.

  575

  Some interesting points here.

a)  I assume that the hot spot moved with Hawaii.  No a volcanologist but the gut feeling is if it doesn't then unless there is a volcano cone present or a section of water for it to vent into it might means some earthquakes while pressure builds up followed by a very big bang when it reaches the surface.  Which could be horrendous for the Gallic empire and pretty bad possibly for the rest of the world as well. 

  If it has moved then the Gallic empire is possibly going to be somewhat more geophysical stable than OTL, especially its southern regions.  Although no great boundaries in the region there is probably some tension.  Which raises the question, since its in the middle of the northern Pacific is much of a continental shelf brought along?  If not the entire region will be surrounded by pretty damn deep waters compared to the shallower stuff the population are used to.  Which will affect a lot of things including of course all the fisheries its used to.

b)  Rome should reconquer Egypt - especially if assuming we have the Gallic empire in Iberia which they only held briefly I think and Zenobia in the east its about the time Aurelian starts to pull things together.  Also holding it would be somewhat easier given the reduced threat from the east.  There is still going to be unrest and new threats from the east sooner or later but while its probably out of reach of attacks around Arabia you will probably see ports being established in the new coastline of what was eastern Syria and sooner or later Persian will probably want to build a navy there.

c)  I'm not sure of the status of Oman but at this time I think the big power in the region was the kingdom of Axum or Aksum as its sometimes called.  This dates back to 150BC and for most of the period controlled the straits and passage into the Red Sea.  It didn't convert to Christianity until after Rome did so not sure of its religious balance at this time nor had it yet occupied much of the Yemen region.  However its going to be a big player in trade through the region.  The fact it changed religion shortly after Rome OTL may suggest strong links with the Roman world although possibly with a clearly weakened Rome that could change here.

d)  Interesting that Palmyra also had trading ports on the Red Sea, as I thought their wealth mainly come from the overland trade.  Those are somewhat poorly positioned here but it could be the basis for a merchant navy capable of longer travels although they would have to go through deep water rather than coastal hugging.  Also if they can tell where on Earth they are compared to their previous position which way do they go?  They might go west because they know of Asia somewhere in that direction, in which case successful trips would run into the Gallic empire.  Going east would mean a very long way to Europe and Africa and they have no way of knowing there are the Americas in the way.  Ocean winds and currents would also be important and they would have to spend some time learning of the local ones near their new home. 

  What's said for Palmyra applies double with the Gallic empire although if they do know enough to tell roughly their position relative to their old location they are nearer to Asia but I don't think they have the same level of experience in long distance travel.

e)  Not sure how many Christians there were at this time but think most of them were in the eastern lands, many of which are now lost and Egypt - albeit there were probably also schisms already which are going to be compounded.  Good point about many Christians possibly seeing it as a sign of the Apocalypse and different groups may react differently.  Some could prepare for the ending of the world with pray, fasting and the like to make themselves worthy.  Other, on the more fanatical side could see it as a sign to prepare for battle and in doing so seek to remove 'pagan heresies' as a sign of their faith and hence a number of Zealot attacks and uprisings, which I would expect to be put down but probably with some bitter clashes. 

  Also, apart from those in the Palmyran empire Christianity has lost its most holy city in a sudden and dramatic way, which could have an impact.  Augustine of Hippo hasn't written his famous work yet but for them its the city of god rather than the imperial city of pagan Rome that has disappeared.  What impact that will have I don't know.

  Definitely agree that Islam isn't likely to appear here and if some new monotheistic faith does emerge from Arabia or elsewhere its likely to have significant difference.

h)  Good point about the Rhine now being a coastline and its eastern tributes now running into the ocean.  The westernmost German lands which had most contact with Rome will be most affected for good or ill.  [Loss of trade, disruption of agriculture and climate, no longer loot from raiding or threat of Roman retaliation.  Many will soon know it exists to the south.  What happens with German pressure on Rome and the impact of the Huns is going to be difficult to tell.  With a strong emperor, especially if Aurelian avoids his OTL assassination and a shorter border the empire should be better off in the short term at least although it has lost resources.

g)  Definite the 536-540 crisis is still going to hit the world hard but what start the three 'Romes' will be in along with associated areas is impossible to say at that distance from the PoD.

h)  One other point here is does the Gallic empire still have Postumus as emperor, or has his assassination in 269 occurred?  He was a very successful emperor and maintained order but avoiding claiming Rome itself and is reported to have been assassinated after defeating a rival claimant to his position but then forbidding his forces to loot the lands the would be usurper had controlled.  He is going to have to disband a lot of his military as their no longer needed and that could cause a lot of discontent depending on how good or not he can make civilian life look.  This would be basically reversing a century or two of increasing militarization but a lot depends on if he can do that and maintain power.

  Anyway the game v Italy is just about to start so will be busy for a couple of hours.  Come on England!!

[raharris1973]

Feb 3, 2024 14:05:44 GMT stevep said:

With a strong emperor, especially if Aurelian avoids his OTL assassination and a shorter border the empire should be better off in the short term at least although it has lost resources.

The "shorter border" benefit for the rump Roman Empire really only applies in Asia Minor.

In Europe, despite the loss of the defensive "liability" of Gaul and Britain and the Rhine border, the Danube is not a particularly short, nor impassable, nor defensible border. Barbarian invaders and foederati in OTL invaded past the Danube, ravaged past it, settled past it, for decades before they got behind the Rhine.

[stevep]

Feb 5, 2024 10:20:02 GMT raharris1973 said:

Feb 3, 2024 14:05:44 GMT stevep said:

With a strong emperor, especially if Aurelian avoids his OTL assassination and a shorter border the empire should be better off in the short term at least although it has lost resources.

The "shorter border" benefit for the rump Roman Empire really only applies in Asia Minor.

In Europe, despite the loss of the defensive "liability" of Gaul and Britain and the Rhine border, the Danube is not a particularly short, nor impassable, nor defensible border. Barbarian invaders and foederati in OTL invaded past the Danube, ravaged past it, settled past it, for decades before they got behind the Rhine.

  True the Danube has been breached in the past and will be again but that's the case with any border, especially when the defences falter.  However its a considerable barrier across much of its length if defended and the strategic liabilities of Gaul and Britain have been removed, albeit along with Iberia.  Also if the smaller empire manages to be more manageable with less chances of distant commanders seeking to claim the purple themselves things could be a lot better.  That is a big potential bonus for the empire in this scenario although a lot depends on how the population and especially the establishment reacts to the shock of the event.

  Don't forget that OTL the Goths initially came into the empire as refugees and it was only the appalling way they were treated by the Romans that prompted their revolt and idiotic rivalry between the two emperors that allowed it to succeed.

  The Germans will be a threat in the west when they develop sufficient naval capacity but that will be some time and may be limited by the infighting between the new coastal Germans and those tribes further inland.