Naval Implications (First Balkan War - 1912) - World War I

[lordroel]

So what would be the naval implications if the First Balkan War - 1912 turned somehow into World War I, with lets say the German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire joining the Ottoman Empire (OTL participant in the First Balkan War) against the OTl participants of Kingdom of Bulgaria,,Kingdom of Greece,,Kingdom of Serbia, Kingdom of Montenegro joined by the Empire of Russia and the start.

[stevep]

Feb 25, 2024 10:57:49 GMT lordroel said:

So what would be the naval implications if the First Balkan War - 1912 turned somehow into World War I, with lets say the German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire joining the Ottoman Empire (OTL participant in the First Balkan War) against the OTl participants of Kingdom of Bulgaria,,Kingdom of Greece,,Kingdom of Serbia, Kingdom of Montenegro joined by the Empire of Russia and the start.

  Would this be better off in the post 1900 section as its not really related to never where designs?

  I think overall its a lot better for the allies, provided that Italy doesn't join the CPs.  However since their just finished a war with Ottoman Turkey this would be unlikely and they could join the allies even quicker than OTL here.

  The main implications would be on land I think.  You have an already established alliance of 4 states which have been beating the Ottomans rather than an isolated Serbia and Montenegro.  Also without the 2nd Balkan war you have the powers not only united against the Turks and hence the CPs but also without the manpower losses of that war.  Bulgaria is pretty much at the gates of Constantinople - although that could cause some tension with Russia and Greece, both of which had desires for the city and control of the straits.  This means that Bulgaria isn't going to provide a fatal 2nd front against Serbia and Greece, instead of being a neutral and divided will be in the war from the start.  As such Serbia can probably get supplies via Thessaloniki and the Turks also have to worry about Greece operations in Ionian for instance.  There is also the prospect of Russia landing forces in Bulgaria to aid their allies.

  In terms of the main fronts Russia and France are a little weaker with less time to recover from the 1905 revolution and no 1913 expansion of conscription respectively limiting their military strength.  However it also means that France doesn't have the insane frontal assault doctrine that caused such costs OTL.  Also the Germans won't have the Skoda heavy guns that played a big role in breaching the fortifications at Liege.  As such I can't really see much scope for Germany to have more success in the west and they could do significantly worse if things go wrong for them. 

  Technologically the Haber-Bosch process is ~2 years less developed which means once a British blockade comes into play Germany has greater problems getting nitrates for their explosives production.  Which will tighten restrictions on their operations unless and until the H-B process can be fully industrialized to a large scale.

  On a purely naval case, in terms of the Anglo-German capital ship race ~1914 the Germans were about their peak compared to the RN with the big late production ships of the Queen Elizabeth and R classes not yet in service and the latter especially may well not even be ordered here.  As such Britain will initially be a bit stronger with Germany closing the gap until ~1914/15 if the conflict lasts that long but probably then being increasingly out-built.  On the other issue of note that comes to  mind subs are less developed which will restrict their use somewhat, albeit things like the attacks on the Dead-Bait squadron are still likely to be an issue.

  I would expect, depending on the timing of events, the Ottomans to be forced to terms within 8-12 months, possibly even sooner, which would allow trade with Russia through the straits while continued resistance from Serbia, possibly aided by Greek and a British expeditionary force making for even more pressure on Austria.  Romania could join the allied side as soon as the Ottomans are out as they will want to be on the winning side and also to get Transylvania.

  The big impact on naval development would probably be post war.  What lessons might be learnt - rightly or wrongly.  How drained Britain especially is compared to OTL - probably significantly if a US-Japanese naval race begins and what state Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary are in in terms of post war politics and development of the balance of power.

[lordroel]

Feb 25, 2024 16:49:54 GMT stevep said:

Feb 25, 2024 10:57:49 GMT lordroel said:

So what would be the naval implications if the First Balkan War - 1912 turned somehow into World War I, with lets say the German Empire, Austro-Hungarian Empire joining the Ottoman Empire (OTL participant in the First Balkan War) against the OTl participants of Kingdom of Bulgaria,,Kingdom of Greece,,Kingdom of Serbia, Kingdom of Montenegro joined by the Empire of Russia and the start.

  Would this be better off in the post 1900 section as its not really related to never where designs?

I placed it here as after the war, i assume the Imperial Bloc (Germany, Ottomans and Austro-Hungarians) will win we will enter never where designs.

[stevep]

Feb 25, 2024 17:30:33 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 25, 2024 16:49:54 GMT stevep said:

  Would this be better off in the post 1900 section as its not really related to never where designs?

I placed it here as after the war, i assume the Imperial Bloc (Germany, Ottomans and Austro-Hungarians) will win we will enter never where designs.

  Ah sorry I may have misread it.  Thought it was triggering WWI a couple of years early.  Can't really see France not supporting Russia under such circumstances which is likely to prompt a German attack via Belgium as their historical plans and hence bring Britain in.

  If the CPs win  against Russia and the Balkan powers alone then it would depend a lot on what the conditions are.  Its likely to put a delay on German naval programmes although they could come back a few years down the line but what sort of state would Russia be in and also the victorious powers.  Also how would France react to its now isolated position.

[lordroel]

Feb 25, 2024 18:35:28 GMT stevep said:

Feb 25, 2024 17:30:33 GMT lordroel said:

I placed it here as after the war, i assume the Imperial Bloc (Germany, Ottomans and Austro-Hungarians) will win we will enter never where designs.

  Ah sorry I may have misread it.  Thought it was triggering WWI a couple of years early.  Can't really see France not supporting Russia under such circumstances which is likely to prompt a German attack via Belgium as their historical plans and hence bring Britain in.

  If the CPs win  against Russia and the Balkan powers alone then it would depend a lot on what the conditions are.  Its likely to put a delay on German naval programmes although they could come back a few years down the line but what sort of state would Russia be in and also the victorious powers.  Also how would France react to its now isolated position.

Well it is about a early World War I with the goal of keeping the United Kingdom and France out and focus on the ships that might end up being build latter.

As long as Germany does not invade Belgium which is most likely not going to happen as the focus is on defeating the Balkan League + Russia. the United Kingdom will stay out of this war, i think.

[575]

Something interesting re German Army - by 1912/13 the Army consisted of 25 Army Corps. During 1911, 12 and 13 enlargement of the Army had been discussed adding 2 Army Corps and adding the third Battalion where still missing (to Infantry Regiments) (p82) and demanding 150,000 extra conscripts each year and adding 300,000 to the Standing Army (p 93) which ended up by 1913 with a yearly call-up of 358,956 conscripts (p 104) all due to fears of being outmanned by the French, British, Russian and Belgian Armies.
My old Guns of August game list 26 "strong" Army Corps (Standing Army) 21 Reserve Corps, 5 Cavalry Corps - which make for 52. So by 1912 the German Army would have comprised 24 Army Corps (Standing Army).

The first link really made try find the numbers - it all sums up to that the Germans were extremely paranoid about the coming War. It also mention that the Germans were really afraid the Russians would mobilize as quickly as they actually did!
Even without the French 1913 law the Germans feared they would be outgunned and more by then.

With what the Germans managed with 50 Corps instead of 52 they are still dangerous. Though the smaller call-up may be a serious factor.

[stevep]

   I think if we're discussing a CP victory scenario where France fails to support its ally then the question is how long does Russia fight on and how harsh the peace treaty is. That would give some idea how long and costly the war is for both sides.  Those will set some of the economic and social parameters on which the capacity for a new naval race.  

  I suspect that pre-war designs, other than very early ones already under construction are unlikely to occur as war experience would change what was seen as suitable.  Although this may be less the case in a solely Russia v CPs war as the former will be so heavily outclassed.

[575]

I understood from the papers linked to that Germany by 1913 had a mainly Aufmarsch Ost/going East i.e. against Russia and only then changed to a first strike at France.

Having looked up the text of the Franco-Russian Alliance the important point is article 2 and 1 - I read this that even if Russia is supporting the Balkan States against Ottoman Empire the mobilization and entry into the War of Germany and A-H will trigger the Alliance and France at least mobilizing if not outright attacking Germany as per alliance.
Russia may well accuse France of not honouring its obligations if it doesn't throw itself into the fight.

With whats read in the references it seems to me Germany being so paranoid that it couldn't let France mobilize without hitting it!
It really is outbreak of WWI just two years early.

Britain may sit back waiting out the War though to me though papers seemed Germany would march through Belgium anyway.

[lordroel]

Feb 26, 2024 12:59:53 GMT stevep said:

   I think if we're discussing a CP victory scenario where France fails to support its ally then the question is how long does Russia fight on and how harsh the peace treaty is. That would give some idea how long and costly the war is for both sides.  Those will set some of the economic and social parameters on which the capacity for a new naval race.  

  I suspect that pre-war designs, other than very early ones already under construction are unlikely to occur as war experience would change what was seen as suitable.  Although this may be less the case in a solely Russia v CPs war as the former will be so heavily outclassed.

Also does Russia want to challenge Germany in 1912 in a Jutland type of fight which most likely will happen in the Baltic Sea.

Also Germany might send some ship to the Black Sea to engage the Russian Black Sea as the Ottoman Navy is in 1912 not much to write about.

[stevep]

Feb 26, 2024 15:40:24 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 26, 2024 12:59:53 GMT stevep said:

   I think if we're discussing a CP victory scenario where France fails to support its ally then the question is how long does Russia fight on and how harsh the peace treaty is. That would give some idea how long and costly the war is for both sides.  Those will set some of the economic and social parameters on which the capacity for a new naval race.  

  I suspect that pre-war designs, other than very early ones already under construction are unlikely to occur as war experience would change what was seen as suitable.  Although this may be less the case in a solely Russia v CPs war as the former will be so heavily outclassed.

Also does Russia want to challenge Germany in 1912 in a Jutland type of fight which most likely will happen in the Baltic Sea.

Also Germany might send some ship to the Black Sea to engage the Russian Black Sea as the Ottoman Navy is in 1912 not much to write about.

  Russia can't match even a faction of the HSF in the Baltic at this stage although it might try some raids or mining to restrict the latter's options.

  Germany sending some forces to the Black Sea would definitely be an option.  Austria might do so as well but its ships aren't as good and if Italy is neutral they would be reluctant to weaken their forces in the Adriatic too much.