WI: no superpower US + modernized China

[Otto Kretschmer]

What if the US never became a superpower in the 19th century while China modernized successfully in the same period?

I imagine we'd see the world dominated by China. So:
1. Japan, Korea and Vietnam in the Chinese sphere of influence.
2. An alternative ww1 with no US but China... on which side?
3. A different colonialism. I imagine China fighting a war with the British and French over SE Asia. What about India and Africa?
4. Chinese potentially replacing English as the main international language.
5. No Cold War. 

How do you guys see the scenario?

[stevep]

Mar 1, 2024 17:49:13 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if the US never became a superpower in the 19th century while China modernized successfully in the same period?

I imagine we'd see the world dominated by China. So:
1. Japan, Korea and Vietnam in the Chinese sphere of influence.
2. An alternative ww1 with no US but China... on which side?
3. A different colonialism. I imagine China fighting a war with the British and French over SE Asia. What about India and Africa?
4. Chinese potentially replacing English as the main international language.
5. No Cold War. 

How do you guys see the scenario?

  You would need details as to why and how those two changes happened.  For instance there are things that could make the US only a great power or if things really go tits up for them a relatively minor power but it would probably means someone else has much of their territory and resources - say Canada or Mexico - and hence becomes a great power in its stead.  It would also be important in terms of what type of China modernized and how.  Is it still Manchu/Qing controlled?  Have they been replaced by a different dynasty, a republic or some form of communism/fascism or something else? 

  The primary opponents of a superpower China might be Russia and Japan with Britain possibly even in alliance with those two.  Which would make WWI if occurring in such a form very nasty for the alliance unless say Germany was in the same alliance in which case it could be very nasty for say a France-Austria-Ottoman bloc.  Of course that assumes that Germany has united which might not happen.

[Otto Kretschmer]

For the US the PoD is after the American Revolution. The US does not survive as a singular entity but splits into several countries. This severely hampers the expansion westward (no Manifest Destiny, no Mexican American War) and the economy also suffers due to lack of a unified market. North America resembles Europe.

For China there's a simple PoD of Empress Dowager Cixi becoming determined to modernize the country after the Second Opium War.

[stevep]

Mar 2, 2024 7:43:47 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

For the US the PoD is after the American Revolution. The US does not survive as a singular entity but splits into several countries. This severely hampers the expansion westward (no Manifest Destiny, no Mexican American War) and the economy also suffers due to lack of a unified market. North America resembles Europe.

For China there's a simple PoD of Empress Dowager Cixi becoming determined to modernize the country after the Second Opium War.

  In which case a lot would depend on what happens to Louisiana and points west.  If Mexico gets its act together then it would become a great power and if it also absorbed Louisiana even a super-power.  If it still falters then its northern territories along with much of Louisiana are likely to be vulnerable to someone else.  There's a possibility of Spain or Russia although Britain would be more likely for much of it if the US colonies fail totally to establish themselves beyond the Mississippi.  The latter could be a difficulty because of the population basis of some of the larger states, especially say New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia.  Plus several competing regions could make for faster technological changes and stronger governments.  Several of those regions are likely to have the potential population and industrial resources when developed of states such as Franc if not Germany.  American culture will change massively in such a situation and in what directions would be difficult to tell.

  If you had a different Cixi, who was willing to support real reform and could successfully ride the wave of social change that could result she would still face a lot of problems.  Especially forcing basic changes such as reforming the education system and managing a change from Manchu to Han control.  She might also face issues with foreign powers, probably most likely Russia in the short term as its recently taken a lot of territory from China and will challenge traditional Chinese domination in places like Korea.  Conflict with Britain might occur later if her government sought to restrict British trade interests although this is likely to be an issue with other nations 1st.

[Otto Kretschmer]

Why would Mexico automatically become a major power in this scenario? Being a Spanish colony, it would still be plagued by the same issues as Mexico OTL unless something changes dramatically in the early years post independence.

[Max Sinister]

Theoretically, parts of the immigration that went to the US might go to a bigger Mexico. Esp. if the US don't want any kinds of Catholics (Irish, Italians, Spaniards, Poles, maybe even some Germans).

[stevep]

Mar 2, 2024 17:14:05 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Why would Mexico automatically become a major power in this scenario? Being a Spanish colony, it would still be plagued by the same issues as Mexico OTL unless something changes dramatically in the early years post independence.

  I said IF Mexico gets its act together.  A decently run Mexico would have all its OTL territories plus Texas and California and points between and could in the lack of a strong US end up with at least parts of Louisiana as well as central America.  That would be a potential substantial power.  

  Alternatively a Louisiana that avoids being annexed by or carved up between neighbours would also be a potential power but this is more difficult because its low initial population and vulnerability.  Anyone who gains control of the New Orleans region basically controls access to and trade with most of the region.

[stevep]

Mar 2, 2024 23:38:56 GMT Max Sinister said:

Theoretically, parts of the immigration that went to the US might go to a bigger Mexico. Esp. if the US don't want any kinds of Catholics (Irish, Italians, Spaniards, Poles, maybe even some Germans).

  Definitely a possibility if the US stays divided and fails to expanded substantially which is likely to mean a lot more concern about preserving what land is available for 'true' Americans - or rather in this case Virginians, Georgians, Pennsylvanians etc.

[TheRomanSlayer]

More realistically, find a way for China to agree to a trade deal with the British or some other European power. Its decision to close its economy to free trade may have been the cause of its economic decline, or alternatively, have one of the Ten Great Campaigns not occur as it consumed a lot of treasury on the part of the Qing Court.

For the Pacific Northwest, you could have an even more aggressive Russian exploration missions from their new colony in Alaska, and a different establishment of a new fort analogous to Fort Ross, somewhere in the Columbia River area, or even the OTL Fraser River area (roughly around the OTL Vancouver area). Combined that with a potential creation of a protectorate in what is now Hawaii on Russia's part, while coming to an agreement with Spain on the demarcation of their new borders.

[Max Sinister]

If only China got a competent ruler... but how, and who? The only rebel movement with a chance to win, the Taiping, might be even worse. Or is there a chance they might be good in the long run?

[stevep]

Mar 3, 2024 17:59:32 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

More realistically, find a way for China to agree to a trade deal with the British or some other European power. Its decision to close its economy to free trade may have been the cause of its economic decline, or alternatively, have one of the Ten Great Campaigns not occur as it consumed a lot of treasury on the part of the Qing Court.

For the Pacific Northwest, you could have an even more aggressive Russian exploration missions from their new colony in Alaska, and a different establishment of a new fort analogous to Fort Ross, somewhere in the Columbia River area, or even the OTL Fraser River area (roughly around the OTL Vancouver area). Combined that with a potential creation of a protectorate in what is now Hawaii on Russia's part, while coming to an agreement with Spain on the demarcation of their new borders.

  On the 1st part only Britain was interested in free trade at this time and - in my opinion anyway - it was a disaster for us.  At least when coupled with a laissez faire policy.  Most countries were protectionist but in the developed world that was largely to protect their own trade and industries.  It seemed in China the issue was less of free trade than a desire to wish away the outside world, as especially the westerner and all the questions their existence and success in a number of areas [trade, industry, warfare, government] were asking about the status of China and the Qing dynasty.  its that basic issue that needs to change.  Possibly a different Cixi or some replacement will be prompted by the defeats by Britain/France in war and the concessions they were forced to make to Russian in the north to decide that things must change and do so dramatically.  However anything like the reforms in Japan really needed a strong national identity so that is difficult for the Qing dynasty that still focuses so much on its Manchu origins.

  In the American NW there will initially be 3 players without the US, i.e. Russia, Spain and Britain and Britain - unless something seriously disrupts its technological and industrial dominance for much of the period 1780-1850 is likely to be the main winner in the end.  Especially given that the Spanish empire is still likely to collapse at some point and with control of the seas Britain has much easier communication with the region than Spain or Russia.

[TheRomanSlayer]

But doesn't Britain have an actual presence in the North American west coast pre-1776? Aside from the huge land that the HBC controlled, the only one with a significant territorial claim to the PNW was Spain, and given that its colonies would gradually face rebellion, I would suspect that the Spanish claimed Territory of Nutca would eventually be passed to Mexico, making that a Mexican territorial claim.

Anything could also happen between 1783 and 1818, though perhaps if Britain did actually seize Louisiana from France at some point, they could be in an interesting position where they would share a direct border with New Spain/Mexico, and make it a lot easier to expand into the Pacific Coast. Heck, they might even seize the stillborn Alaska colony from Russia if Britain was in a conflict with the Russians.

[stevep]

Mar 4, 2024 4:56:42 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

But doesn't Britain have an actual presence in the North American west coast pre-1776? Aside from the huge land that the HBC controlled, the only one with a significant territorial claim to the PNW was Spain, and given that its colonies would gradually face rebellion, I would suspect that the Spanish claimed Territory of Nutca would eventually be passed to Mexico, making that a Mexican territorial claim.

Anything could also happen between 1783 and 1818, though perhaps if Britain did actually seize Louisiana from France at some point, they could be in an interesting position where they would share a direct border with New Spain/Mexico, and make it a lot easier to expand into the Pacific Coast. Heck, they might even seize the stillborn Alaska colony from Russia if Britain was in a conflict with the Russians.

  Well OTL there was a near war crisis with Spain in the Nootka Sound_Crisis in 1789 which showed that Britain had some activity in the area, along with the infant US and Spain was forced to at least a partial climb down.  If it hadn't been for the growing crisis with Revolutionary France it might have led to war and also that prevented initial ideas of settlement in the region.  Assuming that the French wars occur in some form and France ends up defeated Britain is likely to emerge as by some distance the most powerful naval, industrial and commercial power and its likely it will seek to follow up on initial interests in the region.

  A lot would depend on what happens in/with Spain and if it avoids the OTL French occupation and resultant devastation it could stay a significant but probably increasingly 2nd rank power for quite a while but it will see growing unrest in its American colonies without major social and political changes which seem unlikely.  As such and without a powerful and expansionist US its most likely that at least the entire Oregon region will end up British and hence Canadian.  As OTL this would provide an incentive to link up both sides of Canada and hence a trans-continental railway.

Similarly I have seen that during the Crimean was Britain refrained from operations against Russian Alaska to avoid upsetting the US, while they did operate against the Russian Far East.  Even failing that its a fairly difficult location for Russia to protect in the face of British sea power or alternatively Russia feels a need to sell it to reduce the costs of holding it and Britain without the US is by far the most likely buyer.

  In terms of Louisiana or especially the New Orleans region its an area that might be obtained one way or another from Spain but that would be one thing that might prompt conflict with some coalition of 'American' states as access via it is pretty much essential to make use of the US western territories - i.e. those between the Appalachians and the Mississippi river, at least prior to reliable and efficient railway systems.  Similarly British occupation of Spanish Florida or of pasts of the 'old NW' region could see tensions with some American states but possibly only regional ones depending on how things develop.

  As such Canada, while unlikely to be as powerful as OTL US could is likely to end up markedly larger than OTL and possession of areas such as California, much of the Great Plains or part at least of the southern Great Lakes territories could be a substantial power but it would depend on how things developed as to what gains Canada makes compared to OTL.

[American hist]

The American Civil War With international Intervention is one of those possibilities that could allow the United States to be still born. Already in the 1840s were other nations beginning to see that the United States was a force to be reckoned with.

As for china it was speculated among other people such as the Europeans that China would emerge as the superpower not Japan during the 19th century.

Has a lot of resources Japan does not.

[Max Sinister]

Suggestion from GURPS Alternate Earths (again): Napoleon defeats the Haitian revolution, thus is able to keep Louisiana. The US will stay behind the Mississippi.