Alternate history challenge - 19th century USA Northern Secession "Hat Trick"

[raharris1973]

Here is an alternate history challenge for you, and it is in my view perhaps an implausible, or impossible challenge, requiring the conquest of three thresholds to score "Hat Trick" and win a "Triple Crown".

It is to replicate some of the most basic features of the American Civil War, but in reverse, starting with a *Northern* Secession.

So, hurdle #1 Northern secession versus southern - qualifying entries involve the secession of multiple northern states. A popular idea for this may include the Hartford Convention, coincident with the War of 1812. I would note that would require further tweaking, because it really was not *that* close to secession.

Also, a stipulation, a solo secession by just one state is not qualifying.

So, if you pass this hurdle, and come up with a plausible reason for northern states to secede, despite all the reasons they did not in OTL......congratulations! .......but wait, there's more.....

Hurdle #2 The remaining states of the Union, especially the southern ones, need to *oppose* this northern secession, and to do so forcefully. They cannot just let their "erring northern sisters go in peace" and enjoy the fruits of greater domination over the federal Union for themselves. This adds to the challenge, because by the time substantial sectional conflict emerged in the United States, southern sentiment to hold on to northern free states that did not tolerate property in slaves and did tolerate abolitionist thought, speech and writing was not very strong [which, spoiler, was one of the lamest aspects of spike lee's CSA movie, having the CSA take over the north]. If you manage to give the majority southern loyal to Union states the will to forcefully oppose a northern secessionist rebllion....Congratulations! you've passed threshold #2......but wait, there's more.....

Hurdle #3 The southern-majority Union has to win the struggle against northern secessionists defeat their reblling state and confederated governments and armies, and reconstruct them back into the Union. Maybe it sounds easy. But this may be quite hard to do. Your average northern state had more industry than your average southern state, and more population. Northern states had a disproportionately high number of naval officers, sailors, and merchant seamen, making an effective blockade of rebellious northeastern states more difficult than one of southern states, despite the shorter coastline. while some northern states, in New England for example, were not as agricultural productive as southern and border states, some Mid-Atlantic and interior northern states were quite productive in food crops. A seceding northern confederacy, although it would not be able to practice a "Cotton diplomacy" would lack diplomatic handicaps the OTL southern Confederacy faced, identification with the cause of slavery. They could argue they are states of free men, on free soil, who want to be in an an exclusive association of free states, ungoverned by a federal government corrupted by slavers. While sounding radical to some foreign ears, it will sound less noxious to antislavery foreign ears than the southern pitch for independence. And for those concerned with the balance of power, it still has the geopolitical advantage of fragmenting the USA. And geographically, should Britain be a friendly neutral or an ally of northern secessionists, the Canadian border and Great Lakes should be a great avenue of trade and blockade circumvention, even if a southern based Navy, based off the shipyards of the Chesapeake states, and possibly those of a still Union-loyal New Jersey and New York City, should be surprisingly successful at Atlantic coastal blockade of northern secessionists.

[American hist]

I don’t find it Likely because the abolitionist did not have the political clout the southern slave holders did. Also while this is an interesting idea and I sure would like to hear peoples arguments I don’t think it’s possible.

the northern people were not as decentralized in ideology like the southern democrats were. Remember it was the northern Whig party later, transform to the republican party that favored internal improvements paid for by taxes most importantly tariffs. The Republicans also favored public education . John Quincy Adams wanted there to be a system of weather stations in research centers which did not get passed until far after his time . I almost nothing came about northern secessionist movements post Hartford convention. With a southern separatist movements that wasn’t the case.

And how the war came the historian Kenneth stamp, points out how the republican party made sizable gains, and that the Democrats were in decline. The northern Democrats were not as strong on the principles of low tariffs, less federal spending, and last internal improvements as the Jacksonian southern democrats were.

You would have to have completely different events for this to be remotely makes sense.

[stevep]

   Well I think I can manage the 1st. I have a TL - in my head not on-line with a PoD in 1809 which has world wide impacts.  Here the 1812 war occurs but goes a lot worse for the US and lasts until 1817/18 although there is relatively little fighting in the last few months.  Basically while there are other butterflies Napoleon initially does better in his 1815 return which coupled with a British defeat at New Orleans but possessing of most of the 'Old NW' along with Florida means that the US is persuaded to continue the war.  

  However after Napoleon's defeat the UK is able to concentrate on N America and defeat a massive series of US offensives in 1816, helped by the 'year without a summer'.  Discontent in New England has been heighten by the prolonged war and when some of the bedraggled reminisce of the force that attacked toward Montreal retreat into Vermont their initially viewed with pity.  However the numbers are beyond the capacity of the locals to feed, especially in the appalling weather.  Plus many are bitter towards the New Englander's for not supporting the war so there are clashes and some looting which turns brutal in places.  State militia, aided by others from New Hampshire ultimately put down the rioters and some are hung which causes outrage in the US and calls for 'suppressing' the rebellion.  The other states in the region support Vermont and decided to reject association with the US.

  As a result of this 1817 sees an attempted American invasion of New England to suppress the revolt and a de-facto alliance of the latter with the British.  Ultimately ending with the victory of the latter and the siege of New York.  This is the last major action of the war.

  The resulting peace sees the New England Confederacy [NEC] become independent.  Also Britain maintains Florida - which it has received from Spain as part of a deal and which includes a wider west Florida.  The US keeps New Orleans and control of the mouth of the Mississippi but has to abide by treaties allowing British merchants equal access with American traders.  In the north a corner of Ohio and the Old NW is a British Indian protectorate.  Due to later agreements in 1820 the border between British Canada and the US is taken as the 45h parallel.

  Those losses mean that several free states have disappeared and the prime territory for new ones in the Old NW region are also not available.  The south has lost the potential of Florida but the influence and power of the slave holding states is considerably increased and they have a firm majority in the Senate if not the Representatives.  This is exasperated in later decades as a war to 'help' rebels in Texas in the late 1830s means the gaining of the territories taken from Mexico in OTL's 1846 war but because of the pro-slavery states majority those are opened to slavery. - One variant of those can see the territories west of Texas lost to Britain and Mexico in a further conflict but especially with Britain's ending of slavery, which occurs a few years earlier TTL slavery becomes a measure of identity for many Americans and a way of differentiating themselves from their northern neighbours.

  As such I think I can see this TL meeting your 1st point with the rump northern free states - which suffered the worst in the 1812 conflict - wanting to 'escape' the union.  It might meet the 2nd in terms of the south/US being unwilling to accept the loss of so much territory and population especially since they will still see a significant level of economic development.  Possibly one issue here might be that with scope for investment in slavery based activities capped southern plantation owners are also investing in northern mines and industries and are unwilling to see those moved outside their control by a secession of the north.

  As you say achieving the 3rd hurdle is more difficult, especially since Britain/Canada and the NEC is likely to support such a secession.  Possibly Britain is involved in a major conflict in Europe and sheer weight of numbers along with a rump of loyal northern's means that such a secession is defeated but its likely to be a temporary victory.

[lordroel]

Mar 19, 2024 17:15:42 GMT stevep said:

   Well I think I can manage the 1st. I have a TL - in my head not on-line with a PoD in 1809 which has world wide impacts.  Here the 1812 war occurs but goes a lot worse for the US and lasts until 1817/18 although there is relatively little fighting in the last few months.  Basically while there are other butterflies Napoleon initially does better in his 1815 return which coupled with a British defeat at New Orleans but possessing of most of the 'Old NW' along with Florida means that the US is persuaded to continue the war.  

  However after Napoleon's defeat the UK is able to concentrate on N America and defeat a massive series of US offensives in 1816, helped by the 'year without a summer'.  Discontent in New England has been heighten by the prolonged war and when some of the bedraggled reminisce of the force that attacked toward Montreal retreat into Vermont their initially viewed with pity.  However the numbers are beyond the capacity of the locals to feed, especially in the appalling weather.  Plus many are bitter towards the New Englander's for not supporting the war so there are clashes and some looting which turns brutal in places.  State militia, aided by others from New Hampshire ultimately put down the rioters and some are hung which causes outrage in the US and calls for 'suppressing' the rebellion.  The other states in the region support Vermont and decided to reject association with the US.

  As a result of this 1817 sees an attempted American invasion of New England to suppress the revolt and a de-facto alliance of the latter with the British.  Ultimately ending with the victory of the latter and the siege of New York.  This is the last major action of the war.

  The resulting peace sees the New England Confederacy [NEC] become independent.  Also Britain maintains Florida - which it has received from Spain as part of a deal and which includes a wider west Florida.  The US keeps New Orleans and control of the mouth of the Mississippi but has to abide by treaties allowing British merchants equal access with American traders.  In the north a corner of Ohio and the Old NW is a British Indian protectorate.  Due to later agreements in 1820 the border between British Canada and the US is taken as the 45h parallel.

  Those losses mean that several free states have disappeared and the prime territory for new ones in the Old NW region are also not available.  The south has lost the potential of Florida but the influence and power of the slave holding states is considerably increased and they have a firm majority in the Senate if not the Representatives.  This is exasperated in later decades as a war to 'help' rebels in Texas in the late 1830s means the gaining of the territories taken from Mexico in OTL's 1846 war but because of the pro-slavery states majority those are opened to slavery. - One variant of those can see the territories west of Texas lost to Britain and Mexico in a further conflict but especially with Britain's ending of slavery, which occurs a few years earlier TTL slavery becomes a measure of identity for many Americans and a way of differentiating themselves from their northern neighbours.

  As such I think I can see this TL meeting your 1st point with the rump northern free states - which suffered the worst in the 1812 conflict - wanting to 'escape' the union.  It might meet the 2nd in terms of the south/US being unwilling to accept the loss of so much territory and population especially since they will still see a significant level of economic development.  Possibly one issue here might be that with scope for investment in slavery based activities capped southern plantation owners are also investing in northern mines and industries and are unwilling to see those moved outside their control by a secession of the north.

  As you say achieving the 3rd hurdle is more difficult, especially since Britain/Canada and the NEC is likely to support such a secession.  Possibly Britain is involved in a major conflict in Europe and sheer weight of numbers along with a rump of loyal northern's means that such a secession is defeated but its likely to be a temporary victory.

stevep, if you ever write a TL here, i can finally add some more Awards to your profile after only 8 years.

[stevep]

Mar 19, 2024 17:26:30 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 19, 2024 17:15:42 GMT stevep said:

   Well I think I can manage the 1st. I have a TL - in my head not on-line with a PoD in 1809 which has world wide impacts.  Here the 1812 war occurs but goes a lot worse for the US and lasts until 1817/18 although there is relatively little fighting in the last few months.  Basically while there are other butterflies Napoleon initially does better in his 1815 return which coupled with a British defeat at New Orleans but possessing of most of the 'Old NW' along with Florida means that the US is persuaded to continue the war.  

  However after Napoleon's defeat the UK is able to concentrate on N America and defeat a massive series of US offensives in 1816, helped by the 'year without a summer'.  Discontent in New England has been heighten by the prolonged war and when some of the bedraggled reminisce of the force that attacked toward Montreal retreat into Vermont their initially viewed with pity.  However the numbers are beyond the capacity of the locals to feed, especially in the appalling weather.  Plus many are bitter towards the New Englander's for not supporting the war so there are clashes and some looting which turns brutal in places.  State militia, aided by others from New Hampshire ultimately put down the rioters and some are hung which causes outrage in the US and calls for 'suppressing' the rebellion.  The other states in the region support Vermont and decided to reject association with the US.

  As a result of this 1817 sees an attempted American invasion of New England to suppress the revolt and a de-facto alliance of the latter with the British.  Ultimately ending with the victory of the latter and the siege of New York.  This is the last major action of the war.

  The resulting peace sees the New England Confederacy [NEC] become independent.  Also Britain maintains Florida - which it has received from Spain as part of a deal and which includes a wider west Florida.  The US keeps New Orleans and control of the mouth of the Mississippi but has to abide by treaties allowing British merchants equal access with American traders.  In the north a corner of Ohio and the Old NW is a British Indian protectorate.  Due to later agreements in 1820 the border between British Canada and the US is taken as the 45h parallel.

  Those losses mean that several free states have disappeared and the prime territory for new ones in the Old NW region are also not available.  The south has lost the potential of Florida but the influence and power of the slave holding states is considerably increased and they have a firm majority in the Senate if not the Representatives.  This is exasperated in later decades as a war to 'help' rebels in Texas in the late 1830s means the gaining of the territories taken from Mexico in OTL's 1846 war but because of the pro-slavery states majority those are opened to slavery. - One variant of those can see the territories west of Texas lost to Britain and Mexico in a further conflict but especially with Britain's ending of slavery, which occurs a few years earlier TTL slavery becomes a measure of identity for many Americans and a way of differentiating themselves from their northern neighbours.

  As such I think I can see this TL meeting your 1st point with the rump northern free states - which suffered the worst in the 1812 conflict - wanting to 'escape' the union.  It might meet the 2nd in terms of the south/US being unwilling to accept the loss of so much territory and population especially since they will still see a significant level of economic development.  Possibly one issue here might be that with scope for investment in slavery based activities capped southern plantation owners are also investing in northern mines and industries and are unwilling to see those moved outside their control by a secession of the north.

  As you say achieving the 3rd hurdle is more difficult, especially since Britain/Canada and the NEC is likely to support such a secession.  Possibly Britain is involved in a major conflict in Europe and sheer weight of numbers along with a rump of loyal northern's means that such a secession is defeated but its likely to be a temporary victory.

stevep , if you ever write a TL here, i can finally add some more Awards to your profile after only 8 years.

  Well the nearest I got was my "Long live the King" about Alexander of Greece surviving the monkey bite that killed him OTL.  Tend to be too lazy and busy with assorted other things to actually revive any of my ideas plus given the standard of a lot of the TLs here I feel I lack the will-power to put in the necessary research nowadays.  However do keep planning to do something sometime.  Need to really do it one day.

[Max Sinister]

OP, do you know "Decades of Darkness"? It has the North (New England, NY, NJ) secede, the rest-*USA try to get them back into the fold, and while they'll win the war, New England will stay independent after that. Also, it takes about 100 years after the secession until said war happens.

[American hist]

I think it’s more ridiculous That people suggest that is more plausible for the north to secede and the south stay in the union and the American Civil War becoming a world war.

There was talk of New England separating from the union after the Louisiana purchase when the Jefferson Republicans Were dominating the political scene But no fruit came of this. During the war of 1812 no fruit came of a second Civil War either. New England culture focus more on the needs of the community and the needs of the individual This makes it more unlikely for a society that At anything discourages individuality to lead to separation.

New England political ideology comes from a stronger central government first with the federalist then with Henry clays Whig party. While New England was the forerunner Of opposition against slavery It’s people loved the Union more then abolitionist movement.

Anything them separating from the union is going to hurt their desire for strong central government and social reforms. For protective tariffs is an interesting case in 1828 more Politicians opposed the terrace bill of 1828 then were against it however there was a great enough minority that favored protective tariffs.