Boer Republics from 1898 to 500 BC

[Otto Kretschmer]

By "Boer Republics" I mean obviously the Orange Free State and the South African Republic. Both sre ISOTed from 1898 AD to 500 BC.

What do you guys think will their impact on the world be?

Some thoughts:
1. Both are largely farming societies with no industry and only small towns. There are some railways though.
2. Both possess advanced firearms in the form of Mauser rifles and hunting rifles. Both can call up thousands of men to arms if needed.
3. Both will will likely spend the next century after the ISOT on colonizing the rest of South Africa - with so much free land there is a potential for their population to double every 20-25 years - considering they're both rural, highly religious societies with high birth rates.
4. Gunpowder is probably lnown to them. Papernaking might be known too. The printing press is known at least in principle though I don't know if any was present.
5. After reaching the coastline the Boers may spend the next century or two perfecting their shipbuilding ability. So it may not be until 300 or even 200 BC until they reach Arabia and West Africa and even later until they reach Europe.

Some questions
A. What internal development do you envision for the Boer society. Large cities will spring up. Os there a chance for industrialization?
B. How will the Boers impact Europe and other regions of the world once they reach them?

Why 500 BC? The shape of the world on 500 BC is known and it's not an obvious wank scenario although it might be a wank under some circumstances.

[nomommsen]

May 4, 2024 9:56:41 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

By "Boer Republics" I mean obviously the Orange Free State and the South African Republic. Both sre ISOTed from 1898 AD to 500 BC.


Some thoughts:
1. ... There are some railways though.
2. Both possess advanced firearms in the form of Mauser rifles and hunting rifles....

4. Gunpowder is probably lnown to them. Papernaking might be known too. The printing press is known at least in principle though I don't know if any was present.
Some questions
A. What internal development do you envision for the Boer society. Large cities will spring up. Os there a chance for industrialization?

... actually ... I wonder how the Boers would be able to sustain their armament with Mauserm thei railways and esp. the locomotives and rolling stock as well as the then already used smokeless powder ... without some form of industrialisation ?

... which they didn't have in 1898 to

• provide them with the steel and spacial tools (i.e. cutting rifling)to produce Mausers
• make the steel for rails and the whole machinery of a locomotive
  
• produce the nitrocelluilose for the smokeless power thex were using in 1898
  
• produce the colors and inks they used for their thriving press of OTL
  

All these item were and had to be inmported IOTL.

Without all this stuff they - to me - would rather look like some quite lost europeans and given the rather ... 'conservative' calvinistic imprinted society I would rather doubt them to be able to maintain the knowledge of the late 19th century without the input of all the necessary 'stuff' from outside to develop the industrialized ... 'status'/'cililisational level' they had.

Though with their arrival 500 BC ... they might be able to develop a strong enough society to withstand and repel the Bantu migration happening about 1000 years later. But probably more on a technological leven then as perhaps ... Calvins times.

Also given the Boers 'desinterest' in anval matters and focusing on agricultural exploitation on gods given soil ... I would also doubt some to consider 'itch' to conquer the waves aka pushing shipbuilding and furthering discovery entzerprises to the rest of the globe.

[raharris1973]

May 22, 2024 20:49:49 GMT nomommsen said:

May 4, 2024 9:56:41 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

By "Boer Republics" I mean obviously the Orange Free State and the South African Republic. Both sre ISOTed from 1898 AD to 500 BC.


Some thoughts:
1. ... There are some railways though.
2. Both possess advanced firearms in the form of Mauser rifles and hunting rifles....

4. Gunpowder is probably lnown to them. Papernaking might be known too. The printing press is known at least in principle though I don't know if any was present.
Some questions
A. What internal development do you envision for the Boer society. Large cities will spring up. Os there a chance for industrialization?

... actually ... I wonder how the Boers would be able to sustain their armament with Mauserm thei railways and esp. the locomotives and rolling stock as well as the then already used smokeless powder ... without some form of industrialisation ?

... which they didn't have in 1898 to

• provide them with the steel and spacial tools (i.e. cutting rifling)to produce Mausers
• make the steel for rails and the whole machinery of a locomotive
  
• produce the nitrocelluilose for the smokeless power thex were using in 1898
  
• produce the colors and inks they used for their thriving press of OTL
  

All these item were and had to be inmported IOTL.

Without all this stuff they - to me - would rather look like some quite lost europeans and given the rather ... 'conservative' calvinistic imprinted society I would rather doubt them to be able to maintain the knowledge of the late 19th century without the input of all the necessary 'stuff' from outside to develop the industrialized ... 'status'/'cililisational level' they had.

Though with their arrival 500 BC ... they might be able to develop a strong enough society to withstand and repel the Bantu migration happening about 1000 years later. But probably more on a technological leven then as perhaps ... Calvins times.

Also given the Boers 'desinterest' in anval matters and focusing on agricultural exploitation on gods given soil ... I would also doubt some to consider 'itch' to conquer the waves aka pushing shipbuilding and furthering discovery entzerprises to the rest of the globe.

Well in 1898, what is the ratio of Boers, to Uitlanders, to Coloureds, to Asians, to African peoples in the Transvaal and Orange Free State?

The original post seems written under the misconception that these Boer Republics were inhabited only by white Afrikaner Boers. But that is not the case. In addition to idealized rural Boer farmsteads, there were larger towns, cities, mines, with a mixed population of English-speaking and other white Uitlanders getting almost as numerous as the Boers, probably some Asians, a numerous group of mixed race Afrikaans-speaking coloureds, and probably the largest group was ethnic Bantu Africans, probably speaking Xhosa and related languages.

Without the technological advantage are the Boer and white dominances going to even persist?

Or does the OP want to change things now that I point this out, only to send back white Afrikaner Boers?


In 500 BC, how far to the north of the Boer Republics was the land still dominated primarily by Khoisan pastoralists and how far away was the Bantu migration (except of course, the part already there in 1898)?  The 1898 population should have an easy time displacing Khoisan populations throughout the savanna, at least up to the rainforest zone.  

If the displaced population did want to do shipbuilding and more advanced construction besides farming, they would need timber, so for that, I guess that's what venturing into the forest is for. But you need good powerful tools to cut big timbers.

Whatever cultural orientation there may be biased towards farming and herding, growing population and depletion of resources may encourage venturing out to sea, if people can construct the boats to work, for no other purpose than fishing and whaling. That alone makes it worth it.

[stevep]

May 27, 2024 1:54:37 GMT raharris1973 said:

May 22, 2024 20:49:49 GMT nomommsen said:

... actually ... I wonder how the Boers would be able to sustain their armament with Mauserm thei railways and esp. the locomotives and rolling stock as well as the then already used smokeless powder ... without some form of industrialisation ?

... which they didn't have in 1898 to

• provide them with the steel and spacial tools (i.e. cutting rifling)to produce Mausers
• make the steel for rails and the whole machinery of a locomotive
  
• produce the nitrocelluilose for the smokeless power thex were using in 1898
  
• produce the colors and inks they used for their thriving press of OTL
  

All these item were and had to be inmported IOTL.

Without all this stuff they - to me - would rather look like some quite lost europeans and given the rather ... 'conservative' calvinistic imprinted society I would rather doubt them to be able to maintain the knowledge of the late 19th century without the input of all the necessary 'stuff' from outside to develop the industrialized ... 'status'/'cililisational level' they had.

Though with their arrival 500 BC ... they might be able to develop a strong enough society to withstand and repel the Bantu migration happening about 1000 years later. But probably more on a technological leven then as perhaps ... Calvins times.

Also given the Boers 'desinterest' in anval matters and focusing on agricultural exploitation on gods given soil ... I would also doubt some to consider 'itch' to conquer the waves aka pushing shipbuilding and furthering discovery entzerprises to the rest of the globe.

Well in 1898, what is the ratio of Boers, to Uitlanders, to Coloureds, to Asians, to African peoples in the Transvaal and Orange Free State?

The original post seems written under the misconception that these Boer Republics were inhabited only by white Afrikaner Boers. But that is not the case. In addition to idealized rural Boer farmsteads, there were larger towns, cities, mines, with a mixed population of English-speaking and other white Uitlanders getting almost as numerous as the Boers, probably some Asians, a numerous group of mixed race Afrikaans-speaking coloureds, and probably the largest group was ethnic Bantu Africans, probably speaking Xhosa and related languages.

Without the technological advantage are the Boer and white dominances going to even persist?

Or does the OP want to change things now that I point this out, only to send back white Afrikaner Boers?


In 500 BC, how far to the north of the Boer Republics was the land still dominated primarily by Khoisan pastoralists and how far away was the Bantu migration (except of course, the part already there in 1898)?  The 1898 population should have an easy time displacing Khoisan populations throughout the savanna, at least up to the rainforest zone.  

If the displaced population did want to do shipbuilding and more advanced construction besides farming, they would need timber, so for that, I guess that's what venturing into the forest is for. But you need good powerful tools to cut big timbers.

Whatever cultural orientation there may be biased towards farming and herding, growing population and depletion of resources may encourage venturing out to sea, if people can construct the boats to work, for no other purpose than fishing and whaling. That alone makes it worth it.

  IIRC one of the arguments for the Jameson Raid was that the Uitlanders, who were predominantly British and denied most rights in the republics actually outnumbered the Boers but how accurate that was I don't know.  Since they were involved largely in mining and other such activities, which are now going to be largely redundant their likely to be looking to move outside Boer control and set up their own state. 

  Agree that if everybody in the republics are brought along the majority would be blacks and they were important on many of the farms as manpower so if they weren't the Boers would also have to change their lifestyles somewhat.  They might try in such a case to restore actual slavery from any Khoisan pastoralists they can capture but those people are likely to be highly unsuitable for such work and also probably vulnerable to many diseases.

  I think there are a fair number of forests in what's OTL Angola and Mozambique so the latter probably won't be too far distant.  Of course that would require going into mosquito dominated areas, as would the areas of Rhodesia between them which presents problems with malaria and yellow fever.  Suspect initial movements would be southward into the former Cape Colony region.  However of course that is ultimately a dead end unless the people start looking to the seas.  Which I think many would.

  I assume there would be a few people who would recognise star positions enough to know that their still in roughly the same place geographically but some differences in the stars and also the obvious factor that the neighbours they knew of - the British colonies to the south and also groups like the Zulus are no longer there - that something dramatic has changed.  They might also when they take to the neighbouring waters that there are a lot more fish about and that whales are less weary of humans.

[raharris1973]

May 27, 2024 11:27:31 GMT stevep said:

May 27, 2024 1:54:37 GMT raharris1973 said:

Well in 1898, what is the ratio of Boers, to Uitlanders, to Coloureds, to Asians, to African peoples in the Transvaal and Orange Free State?

The original post seems written under the misconception that these Boer Republics were inhabited only by white Afrikaner Boers. But that is not the case. In addition to idealized rural Boer farmsteads, there were larger towns, cities, mines, with a mixed population of English-speaking and other white Uitlanders getting almost as numerous as the Boers, probably some Asians, a numerous group of mixed race Afrikaans-speaking coloureds, and probably the largest group was ethnic Bantu Africans, probably speaking Xhosa and related languages.

Without the technological advantage are the Boer and white dominances going to even persist?

Or does the OP want to change things now that I point this out, only to send back white Afrikaner Boers?


In 500 BC, how far to the north of the Boer Republics was the land still dominated primarily by Khoisan pastoralists and how far away was the Bantu migration (except of course, the part already there in 1898)?  The 1898 population should have an easy time displacing Khoisan populations throughout the savanna, at least up to the rainforest zone.  

If the displaced population did want to do shipbuilding and more advanced construction besides farming, they would need timber, so for that, I guess that's what venturing into the forest is for. But you need good powerful tools to cut big timbers.

Whatever cultural orientation there may be biased towards farming and herding, growing population and depletion of resources may encourage venturing out to sea, if people can construct the boats to work, for no other purpose than fishing and whaling. That alone makes it worth it.

  IIRC one of the arguments for the Jameson Raid was that the Uitlanders, who were predominantly British and denied most rights in the republics actually outnumbered the Boers but how accurate that was I don't know.  Since they were involved largely in mining and other such activities, which are now going to be largely redundant their likely to be looking to move outside Boer control and set up their own state. 

  Agree that if everybody in the republics are brought along the majority would be blacks and they were important on many of the farms as manpower so if they weren't the Boers would also have to change their lifestyles somewhat.  They might try in such a case to restore actual slavery from any Khoisan pastoralists they can capture but those people are likely to be highly unsuitable for such work and also probably vulnerable to many diseases.

  I think there are a fair number of forests in what's OTL Angola and Mozambique so the latter probably won't be too far distant.  Of course that would require going into mosquito dominated areas, as would the areas of Rhodesia between them which presents problems with malaria and yellow fever.  Suspect initial movements would be southward into the former Cape Colony region.  However of course that is ultimately a dead end unless the people start looking to the seas.  Which I think many would.

  I assume there would be a few people who would recognise star positions enough to know that their still in roughly the same place geographically but some differences in the stars and also the obvious factor that the neighbours they knew of - the British colonies to the south and also groups like the Zulus are no longer there - that something dramatic has changed.  They might also when they take to the neighbouring waters that there are a lot more fish about and that whales are less weary of humans.

Yeah mosquitos and tsetse fly I think. I think tsetse fly might have penetrated down to the Boer Republics with the Bantu peoples and their cattle and the cattle Boers and coloureds used, whereas perhaps the Cape was still tsetse free. Tsetse fly range might not have been so far south in 500 BC, but I think 1898 Boer Republics would probably provide a breeding population, even though it wouldn't have been *as endemic* as in countries further north like Zambia, Congo, Tanganyika, etc.

[Otto Kretschmer]

For clarification - both republics are ISOTed together with their black and coloured populations.