WI: no Gothic war, a Byzantine-Ostrogothic alliance instead

[Otto Kretschmer]

In OTL Emperor Justinian invaded Italy in order to reclaim it's territory for the Rastern Roman Empire, leading to the Gothic war in 535-554 AD which vlcaused massive devastation of Italy.

What if the Ostrogoths and the Romans had joined forces instead?

Let's say Justinian comvinces whoever is in charge of the Ostrogothic Kingdom at the time to crown himself the Western Roman Emperor and Belisarius is sent to join forces with the Ostrogoths instead of fighting them.

How much land will the Ostrogothic-Roman alliance be able to reclaim?

IMO at least Spain and North Africa will be well eithin reach but is the alliance strong enough to reconquer Francia/Gaul from the Franks?

[stevep]

May 5, 2024 6:21:36 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

In OTL Emperor Justinian invaded Italy in order to reclaim it's territory for the Rastern Roman Empire, leading to the Gothic war in 535-554 AD which vlcaused massive devastation of Italy.

What if the Ostrogoths and the Romans had joined forces instead?

Let's say Justinian comvinces whoever is in charge of the Ostrogothic Kingdom at the time to crown himself the Western Roman Emperor and Belisarius is sent to join forces with the Ostrogoths instead of fighting them.

How much land will the Ostrogothic-Roman alliance be able to reclaim?

IMO at least Spain and North Africa will be well eithin reach but is the alliance strong enough to reconquer Francia/Gaul from the Franks?

   The problem here would be you need a considerably different Justinian.  The Gothic kingdom, which also included a good chunk of the NW Balkans initially were technically subjects of the empire already, although in reality they had a lot of actual independent.  However Justinian was determined to reunite the empire under central control, i.e. under his rule.  

  Also there was a religious aspect as Justinian and the ruling elite in the east were Orthodox Christians while the bulk of the Goths were following the Arian version of Christianity.  The bulk of the people the ruled were more orthodox Christian - there being no clear break between Orthodox and Catholic sects at this stage.  As such you had a German Arian aristocracy ruling an Orthodox population which was unacceptable to an eastern empire that was growing more intolerant as it regained its power.  As such its very difficult to avoid a war with the religious situation and Justinian's desire to restore the power and unity of the empire.

  There is a way of getting a revived western empire based on the Gothic one but it wouldn't fit the scenario you want because it would mean conflict between the two empires.  When Belisarius initially invaded Italy he had early successes in part because he was a brilliant general and gained some popular support but also because there was a succession crisis within the Gothic sate.  In response to this a number of the Goths offered him the Gothic crown which would have made him king but would have meant war with the eastern empire.  Apart from Belisarius's famous loyalty to Justinian he might have had religious doubts as well but he rejected the idea.

  Other points, are that many people argue that if Justinian had sent Belisarius reinforcements when requested, rather than being jealous of his success and fearful of him being disloyal then the Goths could have been defeated much earlier, saving Italy much devastation as well as the empire much time, men and money.  Also Belisarius had already conquered the Vandal kingdom in the Carthage region a year or two before so that was already in imperial hands.

  If the Goths had been defeated or converted into a western empire I doubt that the Franks could have been fully defeated, even assuming that the religious issues had been resolved..  Their too far away  from the core of the empire and its interests.  Possibly, especially under someone with Belisarius's abilities the southern part of Gaul could be retaken - especially as it had only recently been conquered by the Franks and had a different culture, orientated around the Med.  Possibly also all of Visgothic state, another state ruled by an Arian German tribe.  However that would require not only a quick ending to the Gothic war and Justinian trusting Belisarius but also a lot of resources from the eastern empire and no major wars in the east or on the Balkan front to distract attention.  Again how long such an empire could remain under unified control, especially given the religious differences would be an issue.

 

[mspence]

Martin Padway wouldn't have as much to do

Seriously, maybe Matasuntha marries Gemanus Justinis earlier?

[Max Sinister]

Also, there was the dream of reuniting the Roman Empire. (Even if it was a pipedream.) Until the very end, the "Byzantines" called themselves "Rhomaioi" - Greek for "Romans".

If you want an easier conquest, maybe make Narses the responsible general from the beginning, or have Belisarius use more soldiers (as Narses AFAIK requested).