China from 1937 ISOT to 1894

[Otto Kretschmer]

The entire Chinese territory except Manchuria and Taiwan obviously (both nationalist controlled and communist controlled) is ISOTed from one day before the start of the Second Sino Japanese War in 1937 to one day before the start of the First Sino Japanese War in 1894.

What's the outcome?

All nationalist forces (including regional warlords) have approx 1.7 mln troops while the communists have approx 640,000.

Subsequently, Japan captures Taiwan but is incapable of taking over Korea. The ROC army is too strong for the Japanese to crack with it's German trained divisions being particularly fierce opponents. As a consequence, Korea remains as a client state of China.

Some questions:
1. What does Japan do given that it's plans of expansion in mainland East Asia are defeated? Does it concentrate somewhere else or maybe abandond militarism altogether?
2. How does arrival of China with it's knowledge of ww1 impact Europe? Does a major war in Europe still break out? Whom does China ally itself with, if anyone?
3. What is the international position of China 20-50 years after the ISOT?
4. What tech available in China in 1937 is of importance to Europeans? I guess radio and aircraft would be quite valuable. Is there something else of value?

stevep

[raharris1973]

May 7, 2024 14:25:44 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

The entire Chinese territory except Manchuria and Taiwan obviously (both nationalist controlled and communist controlled) is ISOTed from one day before the start of the Second Sino Japanese War in 1937 to one day before the start of the First Sino Japanese War in 1894.

What's the outcome?

All nationalist forces (including regional warlords) have approx 1.7 mln troops while the communists have approx 640,000.

Subsequently, Japan captures Taiwan but is incapable of taking over Korea. The ROC army is too strong for the Japanese to crack with it's German trained divisions being particularly fierce opponents. As a consequence, Korea remains as a client state of China.

Some questions:
1. What does Japan do given that it's plans of expansion in mainland East Asia are defeated? Does it concentrate somewhere else or maybe abandond militarism altogether?
2. How does arrival of China with it's knowledge of ww1 impact Europe? Does a major war in Europe still break out? Whom does China ally itself with, if anyone?
3. What is the international position of China 20-50 years after the ISOT?
4. What tech available in China in 1937 is of importance to Europeans? I guess radio and aircraft would be quite valuable. Is there something else of value?

stevep

---------   Japanese capture of Taiwan actually is not a certainty. We might tend to think so, because we're used to Japanese dominance at sea, and it seems natural and China could not even try to compete navally in the second Sino-Japanese War, but Nationalist China did have a few warships that were probably twentieth century technology, so they actually might be able to constitute a viable flotilla helpful in protecting the Penghus/Pescadores and Taiwan from any Japanese invasion fleet of 1894 and 1895. Japan did not bother with either until 1895, then it was the Penghus/Pescadores, and occupied Taiwan and suppressed rebellion there only *after the peace treaty of Shimonseki. Additionally, Nationalist China had an Air Force in 1937, which Japan in 1894 completely lacked.  If it could identify flat fields to safely land on Taiwan and could operate just a few aircraft, that would be a game changer.  Even just some transport aircraft or modern transport ships shuttling over some of the regime's modern infantry and a decent supply allocation could be adequate to repel any invasion.

For the Korean and Manchurian battles, I guess Korea, and the footprint of Japanese occupied Manchukuo would be old Joseon Korea and Qing Chinese Manchuria. So Japan would be doing fine initially against local forces.  But it is when 1937 Chinese Nationalist forces come driving across the Great Wall, or marching, or get ferried in boats or flown into Manchuria and Port Arthur and Korea, that they show their superiority to the Japanese.  Their only challenge, as in Taiwan, is getting into position while keeping adequately supplied. Here again they're possessing an Air Force is a boon.

But with their Air Force assets they have to be careful and listen to their technical experts.  They need mechanics at the ready and workers ready to landscape proper airfields, because they don't want to wreck all their airframes prematurely for lack of suitable places to land.

1. What does Japan do given that its t plans of expansion in mainland East Asia are defeated? Does it concentrate somewhere else or maybe abandond militarism altogether?

It puts militarism/expanionism on pause, except possibly against the Spanish Philippines, until it strengthens itself more, gets more even with the technology, and finds a weaker enemy.

2. How does arrival of China with its knowledge of ww1 impact Europe? Does a major war in Europe still break out? Whom does China ally itself with, if anyone?
Unless you exclude books news, knowledge, and the foreign concessions there will be a huge future foreign community in Shanghai and elsewhere. "news from the future" will change everything. WWI "as we know it" won't happen, but other, preemptive wars and repressions and assassinations, would start. China would wait and see if it wants to participate in any wars besides making sure to win against Japan.

3. What is the international position of China 20-50 years after the ISOT?
Hard to say, depends on its internal cohesion - it will be much harder for external bullying to be a primary driver of failure or trouble.

4. What tech available in China in 1937 is of importance to Europeans? I guess radio and aircraft would be quite valuable. Is there something else of value?

Medical knowledge. Advances in theoretical science, even if only in books. Possibly some audiorecording technology and sound filmmaking and color film-making technology and certainly libraries of "talkies". Cinematic special effects and "fight by wire" from Chinese Wuxia 1920s and 1930s martial arts proto- "kung fu" films.

[stevep]

May 27, 2024 2:22:22 GMT raharris1973 said:

May 7, 2024 14:25:44 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

The entire Chinese territory except Manchuria and Taiwan obviously (both nationalist controlled and communist controlled) is ISOTed from one day before the start of the Second Sino Japanese War in 1937 to one day before the start of the First Sino Japanese War in 1894.

What's the outcome?

All nationalist forces (including regional warlords) have approx 1.7 mln troops while the communists have approx 640,000.

Subsequently, Japan captures Taiwan but is incapable of taking over Korea. The ROC army is too strong for the Japanese to crack with it's German trained divisions being particularly fierce opponents. As a consequence, Korea remains as a client state of China.

Some questions:
1. What does Japan do given that it's plans of expansion in mainland East Asia are defeated? Does it concentrate somewhere else or maybe abandond militarism altogether?
2. How does arrival of China with it's knowledge of ww1 impact Europe? Does a major war in Europe still break out? Whom does China ally itself with, if anyone?
3. What is the international position of China 20-50 years after the ISOT?
4. What tech available in China in 1937 is of importance to Europeans? I guess radio and aircraft would be quite valuable. Is there something else of value?

stevep

---------   Japanese capture of Taiwan actually is not a certainty. We might tend to think so, because we're used to Japanese dominance at sea, and it seems natural and China could not even try to compete navally in the second Sino-Japanese War, but Nationalist China did have a few warships that were probably twentieth century technology, so they actually might be able to constitute a viable flotilla helpful in protecting the Penghus/Pescadores and Taiwan from any Japanese invasion fleet of 1894 and 1895. Japan did not bother with either until 1895, then it was the Penghus/Pescadores, and occupied Taiwan and suppressed rebellion there only *after the peace treaty of Shimonseki. Additionally, Nationalist China had an Air Force in 1937, which Japan in 1894 completely lacked.  If it could identify flat fields to safely land on Taiwan and could operate just a few aircraft, that would be a game changer.  Even just some transport aircraft or modern transport ships shuttling over some of the regime's modern infantry and a decent supply allocation could be adequate to repel any invasion.

For the Korean and Manchurian battles, I guess Korea, and the footprint of Japanese occupied Manchukuo would be old Joseon Korea and Qing Chinese Manchuria. So Japan would be doing fine initially against local forces.  But it is when 1937 Chinese Nationalist forces come driving across the Great Wall, or marching, or get ferried in boats or flown into Manchuria and Port Arthur and Korea, that they show their superiority to the Japanese.  Their only challenge, as in Taiwan, is getting into position while keeping adequately supplied. Here again they're possessing an Air Force is a boon.

But with their Air Force assets they have to be careful and listen to their technical experts.  They need mechanics at the ready and workers ready to landscape proper airfields, because they don't want to wreck all their airframes prematurely for lack of suitable places to land.

1. What does Japan do given that its t plans of expansion in mainland East Asia are defeated? Does it concentrate somewhere else or maybe abandond militarism altogether?

It puts militarism/expanionism on pause, except possibly against the Spanish Philippines, until it strengthens itself more, gets more even with the technology, and finds a weaker enemy.

2. How does arrival of China with its knowledge of ww1 impact Europe? Does a major war in Europe still break out? Whom does China ally itself with, if anyone?
Unless you exclude books news, knowledge, and the foreign concessions there will be a huge future foreign community in Shanghai and elsewhere. "news from the future" will change everything. WWI "as we know it" won't happen, but other, preemptive wars and repressions and assassinations, would start. China would wait and see if it wants to participate in any wars besides making sure to win against Japan.

3. What is the international position of China 20-50 years after the ISOT?
Hard to say, depends on its internal cohesion - it will be much harder for external bullying to be a primary driver of failure or trouble.

4. What tech available in China in 1937 is of importance to Europeans? I guess radio and aircraft would be quite valuable. Is there something else of value?

Medical knowledge. Advances in theoretical science, even if only in books. Possibly some audiorecording technology and sound filmmaking and color film-making technology and certainly libraries of "talkies". Cinematic special effects and "fight by wire" from Chinese Wuxia 1920s and 1930s martial arts proto- "kung fu" films.

  There's going to be a hell of a shock to the world from the information China brings.  Not just the Great War as it was called then but the political and social fall-out.  No one will want that conflict, other than a few extremists but which way the leaderships of the assorted powers and their populations choose to do is up in the air.  The biggest impact will probably be on the 4 eastern empires who all collapsed OTL and their leaderships will want to avoid that.  Whether that would be by reformation or extra repression and how that would go.  Is the Ottoman empire going to see greater repression , especially of its Christian minorities and how will they and their supporters, especially Greece, Bulgaria and Russia going to react in turn?  Not to mention the concern over the Armenian genocide which will put a lot of attention on the Ottoman behaviour.  At this point Tirpitz isn't in power yet but Wilhelm is already emperor and has dumped the elderly Bismarck so he's heading that way.  Can Nicholas change his stance in Russia or will he also go for greater repression.

  The news of events in Russia is likely to be the biggest shock for many people and I can expect that a number of people who OTL were involved in that revolution are going to get treated more harshly with a lot dying I suspect.

  One other thing would be the move to female suffrage which will raise at least a few eyebrows in the 1894 world although how much that will accelerate or delay that might differ from place to place.  Overall I would expect it to occur earlier but

  In terms of technology as well as electronics and flying I would suspect medicine might also be of great interest with as well at least knowledge of the potential of penicillin existing.  However better knowledge of treatment of many diseases.  Also a lot of developments in metallurgy, shipbuilding and other areas.

  I'm not sure what the reaction of the US would be to news of its 1937 version?  Does it go more or less expansionist and does the war with Spain still occur?  Would they still seek to control the Philippines and Puerto Rico?

  In terms of Japan the leadership was still pretty pragmatic in 1894 so they might realise what the odds are now and seek a quick ending to the war rather than go for the OTL victories while they learn about the 'future' and decide what their going to do in response.

  Of course a lot would depend on what the two China's do.  Their got less of a threat from outside but also no longer have the same level of support from the western powers so their ongoing civil war will be affected.  If left alone the KMT are likely to win but probably not without costs and not for certain.  How they respond to the down time powers, especially probably Britain, Japan, Russia and America and how do those down time countries respond to them.  A more powerful and assertive China will be a shock to all the western powers but which ones accept that and which ones seek to push back?  Britain has traditionally been the dominant power but that could cause a lot of resentment in China and a distinct cooling with relations.  However Britain does have by far the biggest trading influence in China in 1937 although they will be disrupted by the lack of many of their suppliers.  China could look more to a close relation with the US but would 1897 America be that willing to get involved in a non-trading relationship. 

[stevep]

   One other thought. Would the ISOT include the assorted colonial possessions along the coast. Thinking depending on the date there is a small - by 1930's standards - British naval squadron that depending on the date are in either Hong Kong or at the northern base of Liugong Island would be brought along.  I think it was a few cruisers and destroyers and occasionally a small CV and possibly some subs.  I don't think anyone else had a base in the affected region in 1897 but there might be some gunboats and small destroyers on some of the rivers, in coastal waters or some of the trade ports if their brought alone.  [Which I suspect they would be as they were technically Chinese territory.

  Also on naval matters I think the KMT had a few cruisers of circa WWI age which would, as long as they can be supported and supplied - not sure if ammo and spares are produced locally - could probably cause the IJN some problems even if they might not be able to risk going toe to toe with Japnese pre-dreads.  Although they might have better range than the Japanese ships of this period but a lot could depend on their condition and crew training.

[raharris1973]

May 27, 2024 13:28:38 GMT stevep said:

   One other thought. Would the ISOT include the assorted colonial possessions along the coast. Thinking depending on the date there is a small - by 1930's standards - British naval squadron that depending on the date are in either Hong Kong or at the northern base of Liugong Island would be brought along.  I think it was a few cruisers and destroyers and occasionally a small CV and possibly some subs.  I don't think anyone else had a base in the affected region in 1897 but there might be some gunboats and small destroyers on some of the rivers, in coastal waters or some of the trade ports if their brought alone.  [Which I suspect they would be as they were technically Chinese territory.

  Also on naval matters I think the KMT had a few cruisers of circa WWI age which would, as long as they can be supported and supplied - not sure if ammo and spares are produced locally - could probably cause the IJN some problems even if they might not be able to risk going toe to toe with Japnese pre-dreads.  Although they might have better range than the Japanese ships of this period but a lot could depend on their condition and crew training.

On the bolded parts - exactly.

Unless they are explicitly excluded, and even if you exclude the Hong Kong Crown Colony, multiple Chinese coastal and inland riverine cities, and landlocked cities, in 1937, like Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing had 1937 US, British, French, Italian, Japanese Marine regiments and guards at legations and for the foreign concession quarters, and either full-blown warships at coastal ports, or lighter, shallower draft gunboats on Yangtze River patrol from Shanghai to as deep within China as the Wuhan cities of the interior. So there are "samples" of uptime military tech for every European nation, America, and Japan.

[Otto Kretschmer]

The ISOT includes all colonial possessions, including Hong Kong.

Otto.

[stevep]

May 27, 2024 15:02:45 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

The ISOT includes all colonial possessions, including Hong Kong.

Otto.

  Right that does mean a considerable tech and info boost for those powers with such forces.  Britain will probably have the most but the Americans, French and Japanese at least will also have significant people about.

  Of course how much the DT leaders listen to what those people tell them and which ideas they accept or reject is likely to be very important.

  One other issue is that currently Manchuria - and possibly Taiwan? - are technically parts of the Qing empire.  I wonder what the status of the former will be with the KMT engaged with the communists and the Japanese attacking Korea, which I think also had some forces present at the time.  Just wondering whether Russia might try stepping in to 'protect' the government there?  Han populations had already started settling in the region I believe, despite restrictions by the ruling Manchus but not sure what the ethnic mix was at this stage.

  Also since their a different government, and are a lot more powerful than the old Qing empire I wonder if Chiang Kai-shek might claim that the treaties signed with assorted other powers no long apply, at least in terms of things like the extra-territorial rights and the Qing debts to the western powers?