Was Italian entry into WWI in spring 1915 on the Entente side a "now or never" situation?

[raharris1973]

Italy made the London Pact with the Entente on April 26th, 1915, officially revoked the Triple Alliance on May 3rd, 1915, and declared war on Austria on May 23rd. This was amid some public controversy. The King and the Foreign Minister favored joining the war on the Entente side and PM Salandra sought to sell Italy's loyalty to the highest bidder which became the Entente by the Treaty of London. But the majority of Cabinet, Parliament, the Church, conservatives, and mainstream Socialists opposed joining the war and leaving neutral status. Absolute public opinion is hard to gauge, but ultimately, the pro-war side had the bolder, louder, taking the streets in marches side of public opinion and possessed more decisive and less timid leaders, so they won the debate and policy control at that moment.

The timing of Italy's entry was that it was done after the Allies offered a good bargain, had survived the first year of conflict in the west, the Austrians had a truly disastrous 1914, and the Russians had been having a pretty good war so far, against the Austrians and Turks at least, despite some reverses in East Prussia. Austria had lost Galicia and had failed multiple times to make headway against Serbia, much less defeat her. It was only in the days after the Treaty of London and the final weeks before Italy declared war, that *joint* German-Austrian assaults, starting at Gorlice-Tarnow, began to roll back the Russians in Galicia and the Polish salient.

With that in mind, if the political nerve and backbone of anti-war Italian politicians and constituencies had been a bit stronger in spring 1915, or if it took a few weeks longer to negotiate the London Pact, and the result was to prevent any Italian declaration of war on Austria in May or June 1915, would Italy still have been interested in joining the Entente and declaring war on Austria in August or September, after the Austrians (with much, much German help) had visibly beaten the Russians and driven them back, and would I think, have appeared stronger? Would the Italians still have been interested enough, or confident enough, to declare war on Austria, and risk conflict with Austria's German protector, from October-December 1915, once Austria had also finally dispatched its Serbian nemesis, and now was joined by a new Bulgarian ally?

Italy would still covet Austrian land as much, but would she be as confident it would be so simple to obtain?

In other words, was spring 1915 a narrow, and closing, "window" for Italy to join the war on the Entente side? Was it a "now or never" situation for the Rome government?

Or might a fall 1915 Italian DoW on Austria have been plausible?

Or a 1916 DoW on Austria?

Or a 1917 DoW on Austria?

Or even a 1918 DoW on Austria?

[Max Sinister]

The alliance with the CPs only existed on paper. If the CPs do better when time passes, the Italians might demand a higher price from the Entente however. So what happened after spring 1915? Let's see: Gallipoli failed; Germany conquered Russian Poland; and the Ottomans committed the Armenian genocide.

In late 1915, Bulgaria joined and helped overwhelming Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania. (Which Italy wanted too.)

[raharris1973]

Jul 3, 2024 0:28:10 GMT Max Sinister said:

The alliance with the CPs only existed on paper. If the CPs do better when time passes, the Italians might demand a higher price from the Entente however. So what happened after spring 1915? Let's see: Gallipoli failed; Germany conquered Russian Poland; and the Ottomans committed the Armenian genocide.

In late 1915, Bulgaria joined and helped overwhelming Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania. (Which Italy wanted too.)

So what might the Entente powers have to add to the prize pile in order to get Italy to join later, after it has seen further Entente setbacks?

Also, that brings up a point. Italy occupied at least parts of Albania as a neutral power. If Italy is a neutral when the Serbs get defeated and retreat through there, and the Austrians and Bulgarians chase them, do those chasing powers need to be careful to leave Italian occupied areas alone, to not provoke Italy into the war?  And does Italy have to disarm/intern Serbs who cross into its lines instead of letting them regroup, to keep its neutrality?

[stevep]

Jul 6, 2024 23:27:15 GMT raharris1973 said:

Jul 3, 2024 0:28:10 GMT Max Sinister said:

The alliance with the CPs only existed on paper. If the CPs do better when time passes, the Italians might demand a higher price from the Entente however. So what happened after spring 1915? Let's see: Gallipoli failed; Germany conquered Russian Poland; and the Ottomans committed the Armenian genocide.

In late 1915, Bulgaria joined and helped overwhelming Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania. (Which Italy wanted too.)

So what might the Entente powers have to add to the prize pile in order to get Italy to join later, after it has seen further Entente setbacks?

Also, that brings up a point. Italy occupied at least parts of Albania as a neutral power. If Italy is a neutral when the Serbs get defeated and retreat through there, and the Austrians and Bulgarians chase them, do those chasing powers need to be careful to leave Italian occupied areas alone, to not provoke Italy into the war?  And does Italy have to disarm/intern Serbs who cross into its lines instead of letting them regroup, to keep its neutrality?

  On the latter point I think the Italians would be legally bound and find it in their interests to disarm and intern the Serbs.  From the dire state of them by the time they had retreated across the mountains in winter and with a sizeable number of civilian refugees that shouldn't be too difficult but providing food and shelter for them could be a problem for the Italians and you might well see a lot of them moved elsewhere. 

  You could see some clashes as the CP forces in hot pursuit in such rough terrain and weather don't always realise [or possibly care in some cases] that their crossed into Italian occupied areas but whether that might prompt a larger clash I don't know. -  It might have been interesting if after their initial attempts failed some Italian leaders accepted that seeking military success in the NE against very strong Austrian defences was futile the Italians had committed forces across the Adriatic - which could have also meant their occupying some of the areas they wish to claim at the end of the war but that's somewhat another story.