WI: A modernized Qing China, impact on the World Wars and co

[Otto Kretschmer]

I am not sure if this hasn't been doscussed before. @lordroel is free to close this topic of he wishes.

The PoD is simple - Empress Dowager Cixi has a different personality and she becomes determined to modernize China. And she succeeds, with China modernizing at roughly the same time as Japan did.

1. How does all of this influence ww1 and ww2 (if it does occur)?

I think China is more likely to join the Central Powers than the Entente. This means that Russia would need to deploy significant forces to the Far East just to have a chance to stop the Chinese. Which means less trooos available to fight Germany and Austro-Hungary which means a probable CP victory already in 1914.

2. How does modernized China affect colonialism?

For me at least in Asia there's going to be a weaker Western colonial presence. At least Vietnam is going to remain in the Chinese sphere of influence as well as Korea - but what about Africa, India and the rest of Southeast Asia?

[stevep]

Jul 14, 2024 17:09:29 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

I am not sure if this hasn't been doscussed before. @lordroel is free to close this topic of he wishes.

The PoD is simple - Empress Dowager Cixi has a different personality and she becomes determined to modernize China. And she succeeds, with China modernizing at roughly the same time as Japan did.

1. How does all of this influence ww1 and ww2 (if it does occur)?

I think China is more likely to join the Central Powers than the Entente. This means that Russia would need to deploy significant forces to the Far East just to have a chance to stop the Chinese. Which means less trooos available to fight Germany and Austro-Hungary which means a probable CP victory already in 1914.

2. How does modernized China affect colonialism?

For me at least in Asia there's going to be a weaker Western colonial presence. At least Vietnam is going to remain in the Chinese sphere of influence as well as Korea - but what about Africa, India and the rest of Southeast Asia?

  If it did happen then looking at the last point 1st its unlikely to affect India at all, other than possibly suggesting a hint at what India could become - although under a more autocratic system than the Raj.  India is already under British controls during Cixi's rule.  Similarly I can't see China being that interested in events in Africa, although the situation in Vietnam and possibly also Burma would be different.

 

  On the 2nd if the alliance system does occur one point to notice is that you probably avoid the Russo-Japanese war because assuming the latter still modernizes Japan and Russia are both going to be concerned about the threat to their interests from a China that still rules Manchuria and probably also Korea with an iron grip.  This could well mean if something like WWI occurs with OTL sides China would probably be on the CP side - if it was interested at all.  Its likely to still have a disadvantage against Russia and Japan in terms of organisation but not much of one but there could be heavy fighting in NW Asia.  The Chinese would have the numbers but would they have also the naval strength to seriously threaten an invasion of Japan?  They could probably take the Vladivostok region from Russia and make advances into other parts of Siberia but logistics will restrict how much they could seriously threaten the Russian empire.  It would draw forces off from the European fronts which might lead to a final CP victory but unikely to be in 1914 and a lot of butterflies could come up.

  Also what would be the state in a modernized China.  Like Japan it has an autocratic emperor system but unless there's been a drastic change this is from a foreign, Manchu dynasty which could mean a lot of the opposition is more liberal based, looking for political reforms and reducing the power of the emperor.  Similarly since Cixi is not going to still be about in 1914 it would also depend on the nature of the emperor.  Furthermore the sheer size of China and its complexity will make full scale modernization more difficult to complete and given the deeply conservative nature of traditional Chinese society it would also mean some drastic changes to that.  As such even more than with Japan there's probably going to be some way to go for full modernization.

  Anyway I have another matter coming up so will leave it at that.

[raharris1973]

Jul 14, 2024 17:09:29 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

I am not sure if this hasn't been doscussed before. @lordroel is free to close this topic of he wishes.

The PoD is simple - Empress Dowager Cixi has a different personality and she becomes determined to modernize China. And she succeeds, with China modernizing at roughly the same time as Japan did.

1. How does all of this influence ww1 and ww2 (if it does occur)?

I think China is more likely to join the Central Powers than the Entente. This means that Russia would need to deploy significant forces to the Far East just to have a chance to stop the Chinese. Which means less troops available to fight Germany and Austro-Hungary which means a probable CP victory already in 1914.

2. How does modernized China affect colonialism?

For me at least in Asia there's going to be a weaker Western colonial presence. At least Vietnam is going to remain in the Chinese sphere of influence as well as Korea - but what about Africa, India and the rest of Southeast Asia?

If we put a butterfly net on things until WWI, and make Cixi align with the CP, sure, a modernized China with modernized ground forces would be an asset for the CP and a detriment occupying too much Russian and Japanese attention, but likely wouldn't cause an Entente coalition collapse as early as 1914.    Japan would not be a vital center for the Entente coalition, and China would be unlikely to have fleet superiority to mount an invasion or take the naval initiative. And while Russia could lose some borderlands in Asia, it had few vital centers of gravity in Asia. Depending on Chinese spheres of influence, there could be a "Silk Road" of supply for the CP though passing through some still independent Central Asian Khanates like Bukhara and Khiva and Persia, for communication between western China and the Ottoman Empire and thence to the European members of the CP.

A China modernizing like Japan during the Dowager's reign may have been wracked by by mid-century rebellions and humiliated by the two opium wars, but would not have suffered the late 19th century humiliations like the Sino-French War of the 1880s, the Sino-Japanese War of the 1890s, the German and other European concession grabs at Qingdao and other places of 1897-98 or the Boxer Rebellion and suppression of 1900-1901, or the Russo-Japanese War being fought on its soil, or probably even Korea's.  So that is a set of substantial differences.

In terms of effect on WWI, yes, a drain on Russia, which should wear out its endurance faster. China would also be the main target of Japanese effort, which would wear down both of those countries energy - Japan's main secure gain I would expect to be German Micronesian islands.  

China would be a threat to western concessions in Hong Kong and Shanghai and other treaty ports set up in the opium wars, with the Japanese likely leading their defense but with British and French support, and maybe the Chinese and the Entente being circumspect around the ones where the Americans operated.

I anticipate trouble between China's Vietnam/Annam proxy and its border with France's Cochinchina and Cambodia protectorates, with Siam being more likely to be China and CP aligned, and possibly a Chinese backed Upper Burma still being around, clashing with British Raj forces in Assam and Lower Burma.  

China's urban economy should be hammered by naval inferiority and blockade.

If the Entente nevertheless sticks it out and wins, likely requiring US help, China may be an ultimately undefeated member of the CPs, or it could get off relatively lightly, merely being forced to grant self-determination and yield special suzerainty claims over Kingdoms, Empires or Republics or "Mandates" in Korea, Indochina, Upper Burma.  Or, despite China being miles better off than OTL, with higher expectations, being on the losing side of a world war may still be such a shock that defeat causes regime change, with Chinese revolutionaries taking the end of the war as a great occasion to end Manchu dynastic rule and proclaim Han rule and probably republicanism.  [An odd thought - If, like in our world, the Entente still wins, but the Russians fall before that happens, the Chinese Republic and sphere of influence vis-a-vis Bolshevik Russia may be OK - like China still controls Mongolia, Tannu Tuva, and Xinjiang, and maybe even some of southeastern Central Asia, but Japan gets a "League of Nations Mandate for Korea", Britain gets a "Mandate" for Upper Burma, France gets a "Mandate" for Laos - it could spend very little effort in the area, and the USA, with forces based out of the Philippines, gets a "Mandate" for Annam and Tonkin (all Vietnam except the French far south), that hopefully it can complete without too much mess between the 1920s and 1940s.

[raharris1973]

Jul 14, 2024 17:09:29 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

2. How does modernized China affect colonialism?

For me at least in Asia there's going to be a weaker Western colonial presence. At least Vietnam is going to remain in the Chinese sphere of influence as well as Korea - but what about Africa, India and the rest of Southeast Asia?

As I think I was making clear - modernizing China from about the 1870-ish timeframe without further humiliation would mean none of Indochina, except the far southern lands of Cochinchina and Cambodia (made protectorates by 1863) colonized, but Chinese tributaries instead, Upper Burma a Chinese tributary instead of British colonized in the 1880s, Siam larger, still including Laos. No change to Malaya and the frontiers of India proper. No change in Indonesia or the Philippines. Japan and Russian excluded from Korea and Mongolia and Tuva. Fewer treaty ports in China - none of the ones set up after the 1860s. In Central Asia, Russia does not absorb the furthest east part of Kazakstan south and east of Lake Balkash, which remains part of Xinjiang, and China retains dominance over parts of modern Kirghizstan and Tajikistan, and its influence can work to neutralize and prevent in the 1870s-80s a final Russian takeover of Bukhara and Khiva - basically Uzbekistan.