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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 20, 2024 0:02:25 GMT
In the year 1360, just 8 years after the Black Death ended in Europe, the entire continent is transported to the year 1360 BC. How will the Europeans who just went through a deadly plague that killed 30-60% of the population, deal with the fact that they are over 2700 years into the past? Can they trade with the downtime civilizations? What about conquering new lands?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 20, 2024 10:31:36 GMT
In the year 1360, just 8 years after the Black Death ended in Europe, the entire continent is transported to the year 1360 BC. How will the Europeans who just went through a deadly plague that killed 30-60% of the population, deal with the fact that they are over 2700 years into the past? Can they trade with the downtime civilizations? What about conquering new lands?
They can trade although given a considerable technological difference and the situation I suspect a fair amount of conquest is more likely. For one thing they will want the holy lands back and there's now nothing significant to stop them other than each other.
The plague is still present in Europe, with outbreaks for another ~300 years to come. As such it will cause problems for the Europeans and could be devastating for the rest of the world. Although there's a possibility that the down-time world could have a nasty disease or two of its own. However population levels and levels of livestock handling will be much lower so that's probably unlikely.
What do you count as Europe? Would it include southern Spain, still partly under Muslim rule, any parts of Anatolia that are still Christian, some parts of Russia which are Russian but formally still under Mongol control. IIRC this is pretty much the year that the Ottomans get into Europe so there might be a lodgement in the Gallipoli region.
Once they realise when they are, or at least their in the deep past there's going to be some interesting theological questions? Can you have Christianity before the birth of Christ and would their appearance and subsequent conquest of the Palestine region mean he never appears many centuries in the future? I expect the main churches - which I think would only be the Catholic and Orthodox along with a few groups termed as heretics - would find ways around this to maintain their influence and power but some of the philosophers will spent a lot of time on it. Ditto for any Muslims brought along while not sure what the state of Judaism is in 1360BC.
Checking its a little before the Bronze Age Collapse so you still have states such as the Hittites, Middle Kingdom Assyria, and New Kingdom Egypt are about and depending on the definition of Europe you might see elements of Mycenaean Greece still be about in parts of Anatolia and some of the neighbouring islands. Possibly might be have the Europeans finding Troy still about, albeit probably not for long. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 20, 2024 10:36:46 GMT
In the year 1360, just 8 years after the Black Death ended in Europe, the entire continent is transported to the year 1360 BC. How will the Europeans who just went through a deadly plague that killed 30-60% of the population, deal with the fact that they are over 2700 years into the past? Can they trade with the downtime civilizations? What about conquering new lands? |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 20, 2024 19:44:50 GMT
They can trade although given a considerable technological difference and the situation I suspect a fair amount of conquest is more likely. Looking at the map of what goods were traded in the Near East in 1350 BC, it seems spices, nor silk were in the mix, so those profitable trades go up in smoke and will be missed. I wonder if, on its limited remaining territory, the Byzantines had any sericulture/silkworm-raising and silk production left, that they had stolen from China, or if any level of production had spread to any other polities in Europe? nerd.wwnorton.com/ebooks/epub/worldscon4/EPUB/content/3.2-chapter03.xhtmlLooking at what was traded in Bronze Age times from that map, it seems like rather boring metals mostly - copper, tin, textiles, timber, glass - yawn, all pretty available in medieval Europe and not so unique. Gold and silver - not unique, but always of interest. Metal vessels and pottery from Europe will be superior to those from Egypt and the Near East in general, though the latter may have some artistic and snob interest as curios to the very rich. For ancient textiles the story is similar. There's no word on sugar being synthesized from cane yet in India or Persia and becoming a traded good yet. Amber? Europe is the source, if there's much left - not the rest of the world. The remaining unique goods noted on the map are the lapis lazuli stone. Something decorative, probably a bigger, more valuable deal in 1360 BC than AD. And ivory is noted. Now ivory, from what should be more plentiful populations of African and Asian elephants, will probably be the downtime good from 1360 BC, available and accessible in decent quantity to trade channels that could reach Europe, be noticed by European traders, and fetch a great price in Europe. For one thing they will want the holy lands back and there's now nothing significant to stop them other than each other. When they find them, they will be nothing like they expect. They'll look sort of like Mesoamerica did to Conquistadores, with more sheep, donkeys, and goats, and less gold and silver. The plague is still present in Europe, with outbreaks for another ~300 years to come. As such it will cause problems for the Europeans and could be devastating for the rest of the world. Good point. Although there's a possibility that the down-time world could have a nasty disease or two of its own. However population levels and levels of livestock handling will be much lower so that's probably unlikely. Maybe the downtime world can offer some revenge crowd diseases, but I think that immune system advantage would overwhelmingly go to the uptimers. I think downtimers would not be too much poorer in livestock, but their crop mix would not be as diverse and their overall densities would be lower.. What do you count as Europe? Would it include southern Spain, still partly under Muslim rule, any parts of Anatolia that are still Christian, some parts of Russia which are Russian but formally still under Mongol control. IIRC this is pretty much the year that the Ottomans get into Europe so there might be a lodgement in the Gallipoli region. See map: c1.staticflickr.com/1/581/21667854126_245deb9307_o.jpgLet's go with the map, and just stick with Europe and its satellite islands to the water's edge and the Urals to the east, and then in the Caucasus, make it the Georgian southern border as the limit. If there is an Ottoman lodgment in Gallipoli, it won't stay relevant for very long. Once they realise when they are, or at least their in the deep past there's going to be some interesting theological questions? The average unlearned person who does not live on a borderland will not know or care there is a difference. If they're a casual stargazer they may notice some celestial objects are out of place and worry about it and ask people with more authority about what it all means if they dare. The main thing impacting people, lowborn, and even highborn and noble, is if overall global trends of the atmosphere and solar conditions, glaciation, ocean temperatures are such that there is a notable increase or decrease in seasonal temperatures in Europe, or any notable change in rainfall timing and totals that affect agricultural and all means of sustenance and economics flowing from that. People with time for contemplation, most often people in courts and monasteries, will observe clear differences in celestial positioning of objects in the night sky, even if 1360 BC weather is a close enough approximation to 1360 AD European weather conditions in temperature and moisture ranges to be season as in the range of "normal" variation. European astronomy is still all done by the naked eye, but astronomical calculation, clocks, and charts exist. Some clever monks or scholars might have the mathematical/modeling skill to make a guess that the sky or heavenly firmament is positioned as it should be in an ancient time before Christ, but this may not become a consensus view with any speed. Can you have Christianity before the birth of Christ and would their appearance and subsequent conquest of the Palestine region mean he never appears many centuries in the future? I expect the main churches - which I think would only be the Catholic and Orthodox along with a few groups termed as heretics - would find ways around this to maintain their influence and power but some of the philosophers will spent a lot of time on it. Yes - faith and authority would come first, but philosophers would put their minds do it, and would support astronomical and mathematical calculations to figure things out and support/justify viewpoints. Ditto for any Muslims brought along while not sure what the state of Judaism is in 1360BC. Yes, there are Muslims in Granada and perhaps tolerated in Christian parts of Iberia, and Christian ruled Syria, and in the lands, currently held by Russia, under the direct rule of the Golden Horde. See map: c1.staticflickr.com/1/581/21667854126_245deb9307_o.jpgJudaism is alive and well in 1360 AD Europe, under pressure and persecution in the west, and growing in the east. In 1360 BC, it is not really invented yet, it is legendary times, coinciding with what was supposed to be the time of the Patriarchs and the journey of Abraham, but the dating and historicity and lifespans of all of this in a literal sense is not credible. See maps: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham#/media/File:Abraham's_Journey_(en).svg www.flickr.com/photos/146978626@N08/42769524382/in/dateposted-public/lightbox/ Checking its a little before the Bronze Age Collapse so you still have states such as the Hittites, Middle Kingdom Assyria, and New Kingdom Egypt are about and depending on the definition of Europe you might see elements of Mycenaean Greece still be about in parts of Anatolia and some of the neighbouring islands. Possibly might be have the Europeans finding Troy still about, albeit probably not for long. Bingo, see that second map above. Some Europeans, possibly death's door Byzantines, Italian raiders, Aragonese adventurers, or Ottomans in Gallipoli taking refuge or visiting "home" to checking things, will probably be the ones destroying Troy in this world's "Trojan War", only they won't know it, because the city will be called Wilusa if anything, with them never getting to know the alternate name-sounds of the closest historical equivalents of Hector, Helen and the rest while it is being conquered. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 20, 2024 20:27:53 GMT
Considering all the trade factors I mentioned: Looking at the map of what goods were traded in the Near East in 1350 BC, it seems spices, nor silk were in the mix, so those profitable trades go up in smoke and will be missed. I wonder if, on its limited remaining territory, the Byzantines had any sericulture/silkworm-raising and silk production left, that they had stolen from China, or if any level of production had spread to any other polities in Europe? nerd.wwnorton.com/ebooks/epub/worldscon4/EPUB/content/3.2-chapter03.xhtmlLooking at what was traded in Bronze Age times from that map, it seems like rather boring metals mostly - copper, tin, textiles, timber, glass - yawn, all pretty available in medieval Europe and not so unique. Gold and silver - not unique, but always of interest. Metal vessels and pottery from Europe will be superior to those from Egypt and the Near East in general, though the latter may have some artistic and snob interest as curios to the very rich. For ancient textiles the story is similar. There's no word on sugar being synthesized from cane yet in India or Persia and becoming a traded good yet. Amber? Europe is the source, if there's much left - not the rest of the world. The remaining unique goods noted on the map are the lapis lazuli stone. Something decorative, probably a bigger, more valuable deal in 1360 BC than AD. And ivory is noted. Now ivory, from what should be more plentiful populations of African and Asian elephants, will probably be the downtime good from 1360 BC, available and accessible in decent quantity to trade channels that could reach Europe, be noticed by European traders, and fetch a great price in Europe. I wonder if the 'spice incentive' and 'silk incentive' for European maritime exploration increases. Or actually decreases. On the one hand, supplies dry up, so there is an incentive to pursue supplies. But, the Mongols of the Golden Horde will soon see that all the other Mongol regimes throughout Asia and the Silk Road are absent, and that east of the Ural Mountains, Ural river and Caspian Sea, and south of the Caucasus mountains and Georgia, Asia is simply way underdeveloped, both in its sedentary and urban, and pastoral warrior cultures. The silk and spice roads run dry. Likewise, West African gold supplies dry up. Truly adventurous mariners from Europe may be motivated to explore to the edge, but shipping tech still is not quite there for trans-oceanic voyaging. And there is no certainty of there being a spice and silk source at the other end, so this may actually *demotivate* the idea of long-distance exploration to compete trade middlemen on the steppes or the Near East and North Africa. Silks and spices simply become rarer and more legendary as supplies run down and the decades go on. Mongol riders of the Golden Horde will probably be the greatest explorers in the first thirty to fifty years after this ISOT event, by land. Their horsemen, with archery, warcraft and horsemanship that cannot be beat, will be unstoppable anywhere they choose to ride in Asia, all the way to the Pacific Ocean to the Korean Peninsula and Shang China, to India, to Persia, and into the Near East and Egypt if they wish. If they allow or force Western European or Russian travelers to go with them, this new reporting will no longer represent the east as sophisticated, learned, advanced, or particularly wealthy or populous. There may be reports of pockets of great wealth, but it will be portrayed as more vast and sparse and primitive. That would seem to dampen "get to the east" fever motivating round Africa or cross-Atlantic exploration for trade routes in the two centuries ahead. However, the Kingdoms of the Ancient Near East and chiefdoms of ancient North Africa, will be militarily fairly helpless, in the face of expansion by short coastal hops and land expansion by medieval Europeans and Golden Hordesemen of 1360. The future of Islam in this world really relies on the Golden Horde and their expansion far to the east and south where the hooves of their horses far outruns Christian pursuit for many centuries. The Muslims of Granada and Sicily, or Gallipoli, are already vassalized or subjected minorities of Christian rulers, who can beat local downtime opponents, but whose local successes will almost certainly be overtaken by larger, stronger, more populous Christian neighboring kingdoms following in their wake. The ancient Near East and Egypt, even while not possessing wealth in spices or silks, will certainly be worthy of close investigation and inspection by 1360 AD Europeans, simply to double, triple and quadruple check that valued trade goods are not really there. The same goes for the North African ports where European merchants will look for salt and gold. And it will be worth inspecting for pilgrimage purposes. Once Europeans, with Italian merchant cities probably the most active, are all over Egypt and the Levant and Mesopotamia, there will be inherent interest in them staying involved and in contact from seeing this fascinatingly different set of pagan kingdoms. Of course they will be unholy infidels, but certainly the Egyptians, Mesopotamians, and possibly the Hittites and some others, when seen in full color, will be seen with a bit more respect than the typical pagans that 1360 AD Christians knew of like Lithuanians and the Saami or Lappish people, because of their monuments, architecture and art. However, medieval armored knights and infantry will outmatch any charioteering Egyptian or Near Eastern force that tries to oppose them. So the Italian cities, with or without the help of a new set of Crusader States founded by West European knights, or states like Aragon, or France, Angevin Naples, will end up conquering Egypt or establishing new puppet dynasties there, and reestablishing trade through the Red Sea. At least within a few decades, they could do the same through Mesopotamia and the Persian Gulf, thus recontacting India, and reestablishing trade circuits back to Europe. Routes through Mesopotamia and Persia and the Gulf might be less secure because of preemption and interruption by the Golden Horde, or perhaps, a dark horse candidate, the medieval Christian Kingdom of Georgia, might have land base, proximity, and location to really bulk up, by spreading out and conquering ancient western Persia, Mesopotamia, Anatolia, Syria, and the Holy Land, in the process subjugating the ancient Elamite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Mitannian, Hittite, Aramaic, port-Phoenecian Canaanite, Amorite peoples and starting their evangelization. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 20, 2024 23:07:32 GMT
They can trade although given a considerable technological difference and the situation I suspect a fair amount of conquest is more likely. Looking at the map of what goods were traded in the Near East in 1350 BC, it seems spices, nor silk were in the mix, so those profitable trades go up in smoke and will be missed. I wonder if, on its limited remaining territory, the Byzantines had any sericulture/silkworm-raising and silk production left, that they had stolen from China, or if any level of production had spread to any other polities in Europe? nerd.wwnorton.com/ebooks/epub/worldscon4/EPUB/content/3.2-chapter03.xhtmlLooking at what was traded in Bronze Age times from that map, it seems like rather boring metals mostly - copper, tin, textiles, timber, glass - yawn, all pretty available in medieval Europe and not so unique. Gold and silver - not unique, but always of interest. Metal vessels and pottery from Europe will be superior to those from Egypt and the Near East in general, though the latter may have some artistic and snob interest as curios to the very rich. For ancient textiles the story is similar. There's no word on sugar being synthesized from cane yet in India or Persia and becoming a traded good yet. Amber? Europe is the source, if there's much left - not the rest of the world. The remaining unique goods noted on the map are the lapis lazuli stone. Something decorative, probably a bigger, more valuable deal in 1360 BC than AD. And ivory is noted. Now ivory, from what should be more plentiful populations of African and Asian elephants, will probably be the downtime good from 1360 BC, available and accessible in decent quantity to trade channels that could reach Europe, be noticed by European traders, and fetch a great price in Europe. For one thing they will want the holy lands back and there's now nothing significant to stop them other than each other. When they find them, they will be nothing like they expect. They'll look sort of like Mesoamerica did to Conquistadores, with more sheep, donkeys, and goats, and less gold and silver. The plague is still present in Europe, with outbreaks for another ~300 years to come. As such it will cause problems for the Europeans and could be devastating for the rest of the world. Good point. Although there's a possibility that the down-time world could have a nasty disease or two of its own. However population levels and levels of livestock handling will be much lower so that's probably unlikely. Maybe the downtime world can offer some revenge crowd diseases, but I think that immune system advantage would overwhelmingly go to the uptimers. I think downtimers would not be too much poorer in livestock, but their crop mix would not be as diverse and their overall densities would be lower.. What do you count as Europe? Would it include southern Spain, still partly under Muslim rule, any parts of Anatolia that are still Christian, some parts of Russia which are Russian but formally still under Mongol control. IIRC this is pretty much the year that the Ottomans get into Europe so there might be a lodgement in the Gallipoli region. See map: c1.staticflickr.com/1/581/21667854126_245deb9307_o.jpgLet's go with the map, and just stick with Europe and its satellite islands to the water's edge and the Urals to the east, and then in the Caucasus, make it the Georgian southern border as the limit. If there is an Ottoman lodgment in Gallipoli, it won't stay relevant for very long. Once they realise when they are, or at least their in the deep past there's going to be some interesting theological questions? The average unlearned person who does not live on a borderland will not know or care there is a difference. If they're a casual stargazer they may notice some celestial objects are out of place and worry about it and ask people with more authority about what it all means if they dare. The main thing impacting people, lowborn, and even highborn and noble, is if overall global trends of the atmosphere and solar conditions, glaciation, ocean temperatures are such that there is a notable increase or decrease in seasonal temperatures in Europe, or any notable change in rainfall timing and totals that affect agricultural and all means of sustenance and economics flowing from that. People with time for contemplation, most often people in courts and monasteries, will observe clear differences in celestial positioning of objects in the night sky, even if 1360 BC weather is a close enough approximation to 1360 AD European weather conditions in temperature and moisture ranges to be season as in the range of "normal" variation. European astronomy is still all done by the naked eye, but astronomical calculation, clocks, and charts exist. Some clever monks or scholars might have the mathematical/modeling skill to make a guess that the sky or heavenly firmament is positioned as it should be in an ancient time before Christ, but this may not become a consensus view with any speed. Can you have Christianity before the birth of Christ and would their appearance and subsequent conquest of the Palestine region mean he never appears many centuries in the future? I expect the main churches - which I think would only be the Catholic and Orthodox along with a few groups termed as heretics - would find ways around this to maintain their influence and power but some of the philosophers will spent a lot of time on it. Yes - faith and authority would come first, but philosophers would put their minds do it, and would support astronomical and mathematical calculations to figure things out and support/justify viewpoints. Ditto for any Muslims brought along while not sure what the state of Judaism is in 1360BC. Yes, there are Muslims in Granada and perhaps tolerated in Christian parts of Iberia, and Christian ruled Syria, and in the lands, currently held by Russia, under the direct rule of the Golden Horde. See map: c1.staticflickr.com/1/581/21667854126_245deb9307_o.jpgJudaism is alive and well in 1360 AD Europe, under pressure and persecution in the west, and growing in the east. In 1360 BC, it is not really invented yet, it is legendary times, coinciding with what was supposed to be the time of the Patriarchs and the journey of Abraham, but the dating and historicity and lifespans of all of this in a literal sense is not credible. See maps: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham#/media/File:Abraham's_Journey_(en).svg www.flickr.com/photos/146978626@N08/42769524382/in/dateposted-public/lightbox/ Checking its a little before the Bronze Age Collapse so you still have states such as the Hittites, Middle Kingdom Assyria, and New Kingdom Egypt are about and depending on the definition of Europe you might see elements of Mycenaean Greece still be about in parts of Anatolia and some of the neighbouring islands. Possibly might be have the Europeans finding Troy still about, albeit probably not for long. Bingo, see that second map above. Some Europeans, possibly death's door Byzantines, Italian raiders, Aragonese adventurers, or Ottomans in Gallipoli taking refuge or visiting "home" to checking things, will probably be the ones destroying Troy in this world's "Trojan War", only they won't know it, because the city will be called Wilusa if anything, with them never getting to know the alternate name-sounds of the closest historical equivalents of Hector, Helen and the rest while it is being conquered.
IIRC Byzantium still had pretty much a monopoly of western produced silk, largely in the Morea region so that could be a factor of bonus to them, at least until someone manages to take it from then. Serbia is actually the main power in the Balkans at the moment but suffered something of a decline when a powerful king died in 1355 I think it was. Not sure from what you said about the border whether your including the empire of Trebizond but that could end up being a fairly successful state as it would have 1st grab at a good chunk of eastern Anatolia and neighbouring areas, although the rump Byzantium will have 1st choice of the richer western Anatolia lands.
As you say there isn't a lot of goods that the up-timers are likely to want from the down-timers - other than precious metals and the like. Since we're talking about medieval Europe and the totally different and pagan cultures they will find I suspect the 1st desire will be to take rather than trade. The other item, although it might be a problem as a bulk item at this date would be food where Egypt might be producing a surplus.
The Golden Horde are going to suffer a shock both culturally and economically but if they adjust quickly enough they have a potential huge opportunity as much of Asia is their play-ground as you say. How much they will maintain their identity and how much they might splinter as they spread over such a vast area would be an issue. Also the more religious of them might seek to go south towards the old heartland of Islam rather than east. This would bring them into conflict with the Christian powers seeking to move into the M East region.
I hadn't realised that the Moors in Spain were already reduced to the emirate of Granada and without support from a no longer Muslim N Africa their likely to last less time than OTL.
One impact of this change politically and religious is that it could well butterfly much of the Renaissance and even more likely the Reformation. The Christian world will be in turmoil but its sudden dominance is likely to be seen/presented as an act of God, increasing religious authority. This could also make it nasty for non-Christians they come across.
With Judaism I was thinking of its status in the BC lands and as you say its in a very fundamentally state there which could cause some confusion for AD Jews who seek to visit Jerusalem.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 20, 2024 23:18:41 GMT
Considering all the trade factors I mentioned: Looking at the map of what goods were traded in the Near East in 1350 BC, it seems spices, nor silk were in the mix, so those profitable trades go up in smoke and will be missed. I wonder if, on its limited remaining territory, the Byzantines had any sericulture/silkworm-raising and silk production left, that they had stolen from China, or if any level of production had spread to any other polities in Europe? nerd.wwnorton.com/ebooks/epub/worldscon4/EPUB/content/3.2-chapter03.xhtmlLooking at what was traded in Bronze Age times from that map, it seems like rather boring metals mostly - copper, tin, textiles, timber, glass - yawn, all pretty available in medieval Europe and not so unique. Gold and silver - not unique, but always of interest. Metal vessels and pottery from Europe will be superior to those from Egypt and the Near East in general, though the latter may have some artistic and snob interest as curios to the very rich. For ancient textiles the story is similar. There's no word on sugar being synthesized from cane yet in India or Persia and becoming a traded good yet. Amber? Europe is the source, if there's much left - not the rest of the world. The remaining unique goods noted on the map are the lapis lazuli stone. Something decorative, probably a bigger, more valuable deal in 1360 BC than AD. And ivory is noted. Now ivory, from what should be more plentiful populations of African and Asian elephants, will probably be the downtime good from 1360 BC, available and accessible in decent quantity to trade channels that could reach Europe, be noticed by European traders, and fetch a great price in Europe. I wonder if the 'spice incentive' and 'silk incentive' for European maritime exploration increases. Or actually decreases. On the one hand, supplies dry up, so there is an incentive to pursue supplies. But, the Mongols of the Golden Horde will soon see that all the other Mongol regimes throughout Asia and the Silk Road are absent, and that east of the Ural Mountains, Ural river and Caspian Sea, and south of the Caucasus mountains and Georgia, Asia is simply way underdeveloped, both in its sedentary and urban, and pastoral warrior cultures. The silk and spice roads run dry. Likewise, West African gold supplies dry up. Truly adventurous mariners from Europe may be motivated to explore to the edge, but shipping tech still is not quite there for trans-oceanic voyaging. And there is no certainty of there being a spice and silk source at the other end, so this may actually *demotivate* the idea of long-distance exploration to compete trade middlemen on the steppes or the Near East and North Africa. Silks and spices simply become rarer and more legendary as supplies run down and the decades go on. Mongol riders of the Golden Horde will probably be the greatest explorers in the first thirty to fifty years after this ISOT event, by land. Their horsemen, with archery, warcraft and horsemanship that cannot be beat, will be unstoppable anywhere they choose to ride in Asia, all the way to the Pacific Ocean to the Korean Peninsula and Shang China, to India, to Persia, and into the Near East and Egypt if they wish. If they allow or force Western European or Russian travelers to go with them, this new reporting will no longer represent the east as sophisticated, learned, advanced, or particularly wealthy or populous. There may be reports of pockets of great wealth, but it will be portrayed as more vast and sparse and primitive. That would seem to dampen "get to the east" fever motivating round Africa or cross-Atlantic exploration for trade routes in the two centuries ahead. However, the Kingdoms of the Ancient Near East and chiefdoms of ancient North Africa, will be militarily fairly helpless, in the face of expansion by short coastal hops and land expansion by medieval Europeans and Golden Hordesemen of 1360. The future of Islam in this world really relies on the Golden Horde and their expansion far to the east and south where the hooves of their horses far outweighs Christian pursuit for many centuries. The Muslims of Granada and Sicily, ior Gallipoli,are already vassalized or subjected minorities of Christian rulers, who can beat local downtime opponents, but whose local successes will almost certainly be overtaken by larger, stronger, more populous Christian neighboring kingdoms following in their wake. The ancient Near East and Egypt, even while not possessing wealth in spices or silks, will certainly be worthy of close investigation and inspection by 1360 AD Europeans, simply to double, triple and quadruple check that valued trade goods are not really there. The same goes for the North African ports where European merchants will look for salt and gold. And it will be worth inspecting for pilgrimage purposes. Once Europeans, with Italian merchant cities probably the most active, are all over Egypt and the Levant and Mesopotamia, there will be inherent interest in them staying involved and in contact from seeing this fascinatingly different set of pagan kingdoms. Of course they will be unholy infidels, but certainly the Egyptians, Mesopotamians, and possibly the Hittites and some others, when seen in full color, will be seen with a bit more respect than the typical pagans that 1360 AD Christians knew of like Lithuanians and the Saami or Lappish people, because of their monuments, architecture and art. However, medieval armored knights and infantry will outmatch any charioteering Egyptian or Near Eastern force that tries to oppose them. So the Italian cities, with or without the help of a new set of Crusader States founded by West European knights, or states like Aragon, or France, Angevin Naples, will end up conquering Egypt or establishing new puppet dynasties there, and reestablishing trade through the Red Sea. At least within a few decades, they could do the same through Mesopotamia and the Persian Gulf, thus recontacting India, and reestablishing trade circuits back to Europe. Routes through Mesopotamia and Persia and the Gulf might be less secure because of preemption and interruption by the Golden Horde, or perhaps, a dark horse candidate, the medieval Christian Kingdom of Georgia, might have land base, proximity, and location to really bulk up, by spreading out and conquering ancient western Persia, Mesopotamia, Anatolia, Syria, and the Holy Land, in the process subjugating the ancient Elamite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Mitannian, Hittite, Aramaic, port-Phoenecian Canaanite, Amorite peoples and starting their evangelization.
Not sure what impact the loss of trading options will have. It could be especially bad for some of the Italian cities states, especially Venice and Genoa but then they have powerful fleets and can seek to control what new markets they have.
The Europeans are unlikely to go far beyond the Med in the short term because those will be the lands they know best - albeit in much changed forms - and can reach them fairly easily. It might be that some of those areas, without another |2,700 years of human use could be richer environmentally and possibly with some changes agriculturally than what their used to. However the sheer difficultly of overland travel, especially with the people unknown and less advanced technology will mean its difficult to get very far from the Med unless highly motivated. Which with no clear trade routes known could be largely religious in character. The better climate might also help the Norse settlements in Greenland which possibly could have a new lease of life, albeit I don't know how the climate will have changed between those two dates. Europe in 1360 was moving into the Little Ice Age but how 1360BC compared in climate I don't know.
Not sure how much knowledge there was of ancient lands in 1360 Europe. Probably some idea of Egypt and a vague knowledge of places like Babylon and Assyria from the bible, although they will, if they ever recognise them at the time be surprised how powerful the Hittites are at this period.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 23, 2024 2:28:39 GMT
I might have underestimated some of the spice trades. There might have been some Indian black pepper traded to Egypt by this time, based on evidence from a Mummy.
Spice trade might be realistic to start with Indian spices at least, if Venetians, Neapolitans, other Italians, or Europeans tough on the Mediterranean like Aragonese can "punch through" the Egyptians using armed highway robbery by shipborne armored knight to seize control of lower Egypt and the isthmus of Suez, and start mounting Red Sea expeditions on to Yemen and then the Malabar coast of India for pepper and the resident spices there.
Basically, the spices resident in India proper could be connected to European trade circuits, while those actually originating only in cultivation from much further away in Indonesia's actual "spice islands", the Moluccas, will probably be out of reach for much longer, before connections and trade relays are made.
Silk production volume, as discussed before, would probably be as good in Europe in the rump Byzantine Empire, and scaled up and spread to meet demand, more than any augmentation by crazy, long, arduous voyaging around the Indian Ocean, Malaya, and China Seas up to Shang Dynasty China to get any surplus they might have would yield.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 24, 2024 2:31:07 GMT
IIRC Byzantium still had pretty much a monopoly of western produced silk, largely in the Morea region so that could be a factor of bonus to them, at least until someone manages to take it from then. Actually from wiki-fu, it appears silk production at some level by this point in time had expanded to Italy and even southern France. a vague knowledge of places like Babylon and Assyria from the bible, although they will, if they ever recognise them at the time be surprised how powerful the Hittites They might, they might just make the connection between the Assyrians and the Ninevehites from the story of Jonah. There was speculation Bathsheba was a Hittite princess, but I don't know if that specific naming was used for her group. Thinking about trade goods and trade routes, in the post above I explained how a possible spice route via Egypt and the Red Sea from India might be revived. A century or two hence if the Indonesian-Malay peoples were exploiting the Spice Island/Molucca spices and in routine sail contact with the Indian subcontinent, it could connect with the India to Mediterranean route. At the level of tech required and available from 1360, and with the ease of direct overland expansion into Africa attracting warriors and settlers, Mediterranean, Red Sea, Arabian Sea sailing would probably remain primary over specific ship design development for Atlantic conditions. Over time, recovery of European populations of the Black Death population losses will encourage shipping tech improvements in rougher Atlantic seas thought to support deeper sea fishing to support a rebounding population. I don't know if the Sahara was significantly less desiccated in 1360 BC, or how much less arid it may have been. To the extent it was was still dry, harsh desert or barren steppe with limited water supply, traversing it would be extremely difficulty even in comparison to OTL, because of lack of camels on the African continent at this time. I do not know if the Emirate of Granada possessed a breeding population. If they did, it could be quite the veterinary moneymaker for the Emirate. On the other hand, if many stretches of the Sahara are a decently watered Savanna grassland, Europeans may find Africa relatively manageable to cross and explore down to the edge of the jungle on horseback and donkey back and elephant back, at least until they get into tsetse-fly infested habitats. If multiple Europeans are able to utilize the Lower Egypt, Suez, Levant - Red Sea shipping route for importing Indian spices, that may suffice as the main west-east trade route for centuries, and would probably beat any Mongol Golden Horde land-based routes for attractiveness. However, if a particular power in the chain - Venice, Naples, Aragon, Georgia, got a real chokehold on the Suez isthmus and charged high middleman tolls, much like in our world that could soon incentivize mariners on the Atlantic edge of Europe to start trying the around Africa route. The ships and navigational techniques necessary for eventual around Africa voyaging are eventually pretty likely to lead to accidental discovery of Brazil. Expanded European populations and demand for salted fish is also likely to push fishermen further out into the Atlantic and closer to Newfoundland and Labrador over time. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 24, 2024 17:13:27 GMT
IIRC Byzantium still had pretty much a monopoly of western produced silk, largely in the Morea region so that could be a factor of bonus to them, at least until someone manages to take it from then. Actually from wiki-fu, it appears silk production at some level by this point in time had expanded to Italy and even southern France. a vague knowledge of places like Babylon and Assyria from the bible, although they will, if they ever recognise them at the time be surprised how powerful the Hittites They might, they might just make the connection between the Assyrians and the Ninevehites from the story of Jonah. There was speculation Bathsheba was a Hittite princess, but I don't know if that specific naming was used for her group. Thinking about trade goods and trade routes, in the post above I explained how a possible spice route via Egypt and the Red Sea from India might be revived. A century or two hence if the Indonesian-Malay peoples were exploiting the Spice Island/Molucca spices and in routine sail contact with the Indian subcontinent, it could connect with the India to Mediterranean route. At the level of tech required and available from 1360, and with the ease of direct overland expansion into Africa attracting warriors and settlers, Mediterranean, Red Sea, Arabian Sea sailing would probably remain primary over specific ship design development for Atlantic conditions. Over time, recovery of European populations of the Black Death population losses will encourage shipping tech improvements in rougher Atlantic seas thought to support deeper sea fishing to support a rebounding population. I don't know if the Sahara was significantly less desiccated in 1360 BC, or how much less arid it may have been. To the extent it was was still dry, harsh desert or barren steppe with limited water supply, traversing it would be extremely difficulty even in comparison to OTL, because of lack of camels on the African continent at this time. I do not know if the Emirate of Granada possessed a breeding population. If they did, it could be quite the veterinary moneymaker for the Emirate. On the other hand, if many stretches of the Sahara are a decently watered Savanna grassland, Europeans may find Africa relatively manageable to cross and explore down to the edge of the jungle on horseback and donkey back and elephant back, at least until they get into tsetse-fly infested habitats. If multiple Europeans are able to utilize the Lower Egypt, Suez, Levant - Red Sea shipping route for importing Indian spices, that may suffice as the main west-east trade route for centuries, and would probably beat any Mongol Golden Horde land-based routes for attractiveness. However, if a particular power in the chain - Venice, Naples, Aragon, Georgia, got a real chokehold on the Suez isthmus and charged high middleman tolls, much like in our world that could soon incentivize mariners on the Atlantic edge of Europe to start trying the around Africa route. The ships and navigational techniques necessary for eventual around Africa voyaging are eventually pretty likely to lead to accidental discovery of Brazil. Expanded European populations and demand for salted fish is also likely to push fishermen further out into the Atlantic and closer to Newfoundland and Labrador over time.
a) Ah I thought the Greeks had managed to hold their domination of western produced silk somewhat longer. But then thinking about it the fall of Constantinople in 1204 and founding of the Latin Empire very likely means that knowledge spreads westwards, especially to Venice as the big trade interest and backer of the 4th Crusade and onward through Italy. If not shortly after the conquest then in later years as the Latin's are drive out of the region.
b) I wasn't thinking of Sahara as being that much wetter, as I think that had ended a few millennia before. However areas like the upper Nile valley and I was referring mostly to parts of Arabia IIRC seem to have been wetter and more fertile along with sections of the N African coastal regions.
c) I do agree that with 14thC European technology trade with India and point eastwards are most likely for quite a while to go more via some aspect of the ME overland rather than the opening of a sea route around Africa. Although as you say if some power gets a monopoly of such trade its likely to prompt a desire to find an alternative. Albeit that does mean the monopolize is strong enough to maintain that position as the Ottomans were OTL else the most likely response is to bash up the power causing the problem.
d) In terms of the relationship of between current [1360BC] and biblical information I was thinking of reading about how the reference in the bible to David stealing the wife of one of his soldiers who he sent on a mission to his death - Bathsheba and Uriah the Hittite - where the viewpoint was that the Hittites were a relatively minor tribe/kingdom in N Syria. So the later discovery that it had once been a major empire came as a surprise.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jul 25, 2024 2:13:02 GMT
b) I wasn't thinking of Sahara as being that much wetter, as I think that had ended a few millennia before. However areas like the upper Nile valley and I was referring mostly to parts of Arabia IIRC seem to have been wetter and more fertile along with sections of the N African coastal regions. Interesting. I thought I'd heard about the Sahara, but never tracked periodization closely. Upper Nile Valley as a historically more "lush" area? I'm not familiar with it. Is this more descriptive of northern Sudan, or Upper Egypt? And parts of Arabia once being more fertile, less arid? Which ones? Is this supposed to mainly be Yemen in southern Arabia, the so-called "Arabia Felix"? Although as you say if some power gets a monopoly of such trade its likely to prompt a desire to find an alternative. Albeit that does mean the monopolize is strong enough to maintain that position as the Ottomans were OTL else the most likely response is to bash up the power causing the problem. Agree that the first response is going to be to try to bash up whoever is trying to overcharge or monopolize Suez and the Red Sea, or try to work a Mesopotamian-Persian Gulf bypass. d) In terms of the relationship of between current [1360BC] and biblical information I was thinking of reading about how the reference in the bible to David stealing the wife of one of his soldiers who he sent on a mission to his death - Bathsheba and Uriah the Hittite - where the viewpoint was that the Hittites were a relatively minor tribe/kingdom in N Syria. So the later discovery that it had once been a major empire came as a surprise. Absolutely agree with the Biblical tie-in, and that the scope of the Hittite domain would be a big surprise. |
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Post by stevep on Jul 25, 2024 16:47:28 GMT
b) I wasn't thinking of Sahara as being that much wetter, as I think that had ended a few millennia before. However areas like the upper Nile valley and I was referring mostly to parts of Arabia IIRC seem to have been wetter and more fertile along with sections of the N African coastal regions. Interesting. I thought I'd heard about the Sahara, but never tracked periodization closely. Upper Nile Valley as a historically more "lush" area? I'm not familiar with it. Is this more descriptive of northern Sudan, or Upper Egypt? And parts of Arabia once being more fertile, less arid? Which ones? Is this supposed to mainly be Yemen in southern Arabia, the so-called "Arabia Felix"? Although as you say if some power gets a monopoly of such trade its likely to prompt a desire to find an alternative. Albeit that does mean the monopolize is strong enough to maintain that position as the Ottomans were OTL else the most likely response is to bash up the power causing the problem. Agree that the first response is going to be to try to bash up whoever is trying to overcharge or monopolize Suez and the Red Sea, or try to work a Mesopotamian-Persian Gulf bypass. d) In terms of the relationship of between current [1360BC] and biblical information I was thinking of reading about how the reference in the bible to David stealing the wife of one of his soldiers who he sent on a mission to his death - Bathsheba and Uriah the Hittite - where the viewpoint was that the Hittites were a relatively minor tribe/kingdom in N Syria. So the later discovery that it had once been a major empire came as a surprise. Absolutely agree with the Biblical tie-in, and that the scope of the Hittite domain would be a big surprise.
Read a long time ago that much of the wider fringe of the fertile crescent, including the fringes to the south were markedly less barren. This area decayed over the centuries, in part IIRC because of over-use of resources and possibly also of a continuing drying out from the wetter period of a few millennial before when as you say much of the Sahara was more fertile and well watered. Yemen is an area that seems to have been markedly more fertile until about the 7thC when it seems that the collapse of one or more large dams meant the loss of much agricultural capacity. Have seen it suggested that this was a factor in the explosion of Arabian conquests in that period and possibly also the willingness to accept Islam as you have a sizeable population in economic and social turmoil and hence more likely to be looking for a new life.
In terns of the upper Nile I was thinking of what used to be Nubia and seems to be quite fertile compared to the current age.
Basically assorted ideas I'm come across over the decades but can't really put a source to it I'm afraid.
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 4, 2024 17:44:19 GMT
Truly adventurous mariners from Europe may be motivated to explore to the edge, but shipping tech still is not quite there for trans-oceanic voyaging. And there is no certainty of there being a spice and silk source at the other end, so this may actually *demotivate* the idea of long-distance exploration to compete trade middlemen on the steppes or the Near East and North Africa. Silks and spices simply become rarer and more legendary as supplies run down and the decades go on. Mongol riders of the Golden Horde will probably be the greatest explorers in the first thirty to fifty years after this ISOT event, by land. Their horsemen, with archery, warcraft and horsemanship that cannot be beat, will be unstoppable anywhere they choose to ride in Asia, all the way to the Pacific Ocean to the Korean Peninsula and Shang China, to India, to Persia, and into the Near East and Egypt if they wish. If they allow or force Western European or Russian travelers to go with them, this new reporting will no longer represent the east as sophisticated, learned, advanced, or particularly wealthy or populous. There may be reports of pockets of great wealth, but it will be portrayed as more vast and sparse and primitive. That would seem to dampen "get to the east" fever motivating round Africa or cross-Atlantic exploration for trade routes in the two centuries ahead. However, the Kingdoms of the Ancient Near East and chiefdoms of ancient North Africa, will be militarily fairly helpless, in the face of expansion by short coastal hops and land expansion by medieval Europeans and Golden Hordesemen of 1360. The future of Islam in this world really relies on the Golden Horde and their expansion far to the east and south where the hooves of their horses far outruns Christian pursuit for many centuries. The Muslims of Granada and Sicily, or Gallipoli, are already vassalized or subjected minorities of Christian rulers, who can beat local downtime opponents, but whose local successes will almost certainly be overtaken by larger, stronger, more populous Christian neighboring kingdoms following in their wake. The ancient Near East and Egypt, even while not possessing wealth in spices or silks, will certainly be worthy of close investigation and inspection by 1360 AD Europeans, simply to double, triple and quadruple check that valued trade goods are not really there. The same goes for the North African ports where European merchants will look for salt and gold. And it will be worth inspecting for pilgrimage purposes. Once Europeans, with Italian merchant cities probably the most active, are all over Egypt and the Levant and Mesopotamia, there will be inherent interest in them staying involved and in contact from seeing this fascinatingly different set of pagan kingdoms. Of course they will be unholy infidels, but certainly the Egyptians, Mesopotamians, and possibly the Hittites and some others, when seen in full color, will be seen with a bit more respect than the typical pagans that 1360 AD Christians knew of like Lithuanians and the Saami or Lappish people, because of their monuments, architecture and art. However, medieval armored knights and infantry will outmatch any charioteering Egyptian or Near Eastern force that tries to oppose them. So the Italian cities, with or without the help of a new set of Crusader States founded by West European knights, or states like Aragon, or France, Angevin Naples, will end up conquering Egypt or establishing new puppet dynasties there, and reestablishing trade through the Red Sea. At least within a few decades, they could do the same through Mesopotamia and the Persian Gulf, thus recontacting India, and reestablishing trade circuits back to Europe. Routes through Mesopotamia and Persia and the Gulf might be less secure because of preemption and interruption by the Golden Horde, or perhaps, a dark horse candidate, the medieval Christian Kingdom of Georgia, might have land base, proximity, and location to really bulk up, by spreading out and conquering ancient western Persia, Mesopotamia, Anatolia, Syria, and the Holy Land, in the process subjugating the ancient Elamite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Mitannian, Hittite, Aramaic, port-Phoenecian Canaanite, Amorite peoples and starting their evangelization. In terms of teasing out the much longer term cultural and religious implications of this starting point, here is what I would offer as a linear projection: The states and city-states of Europe would come to dominate the shores of the ancient Mediterranean, and expand into/assimilate adjacent areas of North Africa and Asia Minor, while politically and economically dominating Egypt and the Levant and Red Sea, and possibly Arabia and Mesopotamia as well, exerting tremendous culture influence over the natives but perhaps not wiping everything away, but certainly spreading Christianity to an ever greater share of the population. The Red Sea route will be used for spice trade with India, and Mesopotamia and the Persian Gulf may be an additional spice trade and later tea trade route. There will also be a West African, Trans-Saharan/Nile Valley gold and ivory trade route route. Over the centuries ahead, this should also be a transmission belt for cultural ideas, including religions, especially Christianity. On the African continent Christianity won't really have competitors except native animism and traditional Egyptian religion. In Egypt and the Near East, local traditional religion, and similarly in Persia and India. Although, Persia at this point has not developed as any sophisticated version of Zoroastrianism, Mazdaism, Dualism, and India has not developed any systematized Hinduism with accompanying moral philosophy. The other big difference in the Asian vector of expansion, is that in Persia and the Indian mainland, the Golden Horde will be spreading by horseback and wagon its rule and at least the basic concepts and practices of Islamic religion and culture even faster than Europeans are spreading Christianity. Some coastal and southern areas of India may be more contested, possibly the Malabar coast itself where the black pepper and cinnamon literally comes from, but Islamic dominance of the Indian subcontinent throughout the entire Indo-Gangetic plain, and probably well into the Deccan plateau is pretty much all but certain. The Islamic Golden Horde will be bringing Islam and related cultural practices to Shang China, and nearby areas like Mongolia, Korea, and not-yet-Sinicized southern China and Tibet sooner than Europeans bring Christian influence. However, over the centuries, through incremental expansion of their own trade networks, Europeans (like Italians or Aragonese) operating in the Indian Ocean trade, Sri Lanka would likely be a base for them, and will advance along the southern island and coastal southern fringes of Asia in search of trade goods and eventually link up with Austronesian-Malay trading networks that will eventually lead them to more spices and the spice islands of Indonesia. With religion following trade contact, Christianity will likely start making progress there before anyone local starts hearing of Islam. These networks will keep extending east and northeast through Indonesia to the Philippines, Taiwan, and south China coast, and eventually to the Ryukyus and Japan. In the meantime, probably by no late than 1600 AD by the European/Christian calendar, because of sheer improvements in shipping technology, deeper voyaging into the Atlantic to exploit fisheries more thoroughly, attempts to circumnavigate around Africa, if not some navigator deliberately succeeding in a plan, based on some faulty but hopeful math to sail east to the spice islands by going west, the Americas will be discovered, and Africa circumnavigated, with Europeans starting to make use of the coastlines of all these continents. |
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